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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — November 12, 2026

November 12, 20267 racesAll Evangeline picks

Best bets at Evangeline today

Race 17Water LilyML 9/56:35 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Evangeline: our top pick won 13 of 63 races (21%) and finished in the money in 41.

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Water Lily is our best bet on the free side of tonight's card — she tops Race 1 with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating, the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.85 sec/furlong, and a 33% simulation win probability at 9/5 morning line. That's the kind of edge you want going into a short-field maiden sprint.

It's a crisp Thursday night at Evangeline Downs — clear skies, 62°F, and all seven races running on dirt. The cool conditions should keep the surface consistent throughout the evening, which matters in quarter-horse racing where fractions of a second separate winners from also-rans. Seven races, all dirt, distances ranging from a blistering 220 yards all the way out to 870 yards in Race 5.

What makes tonight's card interesting is the variety packed into a short night — maiden sprints, a claiming drop to watch closely in Race 2, and a rare 870-yard test in Race 5 that plays out more like a traditional thoroughbred race. There's something for every betting style here.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EST

Maiden · 220 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint over 220 yards with an all-unproven field, but the rating spread tells a clear story — Water Lily (88.83) and Lynns Sweet Angel (76.27) separate themselves from the pack by a comfortable margin.

win7Water LilyML 9/5

Water Lily is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83, ranking her first among all eight runners. She posted the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.85 seconds per furlong and has placed in 2 of 4 starts on dirt, giving her the strongest surface credentials here. Trainer Braulio Hernandez earns an A- grade, one of the better connections in the race, and she's landed on today's TrackWiz Top 50 Horses list. Our 10,000 simulations had her winning 33% of the time — well clear of the field — making her 9/5 morning line look like fair value at worst.

place6Lynns Sweet AngelML 5/2

Lynns Sweet Angel is the clear second choice in our model (rating 76.27, ranked 2nd), and she's logged a 20% in-the-money rate in her career with a recent race speed of 12.59 sec/furlong, good for third in this group. The concern worth noting is a modest 2-for-10 dirt record, so she's not a lock, but at 5/2 on the morning line she's a logical exotics partner alongside Water Lily.

show4Tf Five Bar HoneyML 4/1

Tf Five Bar Honey offers a bit of intrigue as the second-fastest horse in recent race speed at 11.86 sec/furlong, nearly matching Water Lily's top mark. She's been away 195 days and may need the race to find her best — a layoff that explains the modest recent form — but the raw speed profile makes her a reasonable show contender at 4/1 in this maiden field.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Water Lily33%
6Lynns Sweet Angel23%
4Tf Five Bar Honey13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 1 is tonight's only free look, and Water Lily is a legitimate play — not just a morning-line favorite by default. She's placed in 2 of 4 starts on dirt and leads this maiden field in recent race speed. At 9/5 she's not a screaming overlay, but the speed numbers back the price. In a 220-yard sprint, the horse that breaks fastest almost always wins, and her figures suggest she gets out of the gate in a hurry.

Keep an eye on how the dirt is playing early in the card. At Evangeline, the inside path can get the most traffic in short sprints — if Water Lily draws a favorable post, that only adds to the case. One race, one clear top pick: straightforward and actionable.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:00 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Three horses claim legitimate win credentials in this maiden claiming sprint, with The Boopaloo Cartel and Is Leavin Hot nearly deadlocked at the top of the ratings — expect a sharp pace duel to decide it.

win2The Boopaloo CartelML 5/2

The Boopaloo Cartel tops our ratings at 87.81 and comes in with a 37% in-the-money career rate, the best in the field. He ranked second in recent race speed (12.37 sec/furlong), pairs with a Grade-A trainer in Andres Adame Jr., and earned a spot on today's TrackWiz Top 50 list. The only wrinkle is a rest angle — he's arriving with 27 days off and reportedly performs better with 30 or more days between starts. That's worth noting, but his overall profile is too strong to dismiss in this company, and our sims had him winning 33% of the time.

place4Is Leavin HotML EVN

Is Leavin Hot is a genuine threat at even money on the morning line and posted the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.99 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a 300-yard sprint. His 37% in-the-money rate matches The Boopaloo Cartel, and his speed number gives him a real shot to wire this field. The concern is an 0-for-2 record at Evangeline and a cold recent form cycle, so the place spot feels appropriate in a race this tight.

show3Mda Swift BarML 9/2

Mda Swift Bar slots in as our third choice with a 48.5 rating (ranked 3rd) and the third-fastest recent speed figure at 12.57 sec/furlong. He's also dropping in claiming price, which is worth noting as a positive angle — connections are putting him in a spot to run. The concern is a winless dirt record, so he's strictly a show play and exotics fill here.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

2The Boopaloo Cartel33%
4Is Leavin Hot33%
3Mda Swift Bar12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:25 PM EST

Optional Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

Leaving You Loco and No Moonin have split this optional claiming field right down the middle — two top-rated horses separated by just three rating points, setting up what should be a battle at the wire in this 220-yard dash.

win5Leaving You LocoML 5/2

Leaving You Loco earns the top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.87 sec/furlong. The dirt record is excellent — 2 wins and placed in 7 of 11 tries — and she's placed in 3 of her last 5 starts, showing a horse in good form right now. With an A-/A- jockey-trainer combo and a 29% sim win rate, she's the deserving top choice even with No Moonin breathing down her neck.

place9No MooninML 2/1

No Moonin is essentially a co-favorite in our model at 84.79 (rated 2nd) and brings a 23% career win rate — the best win percentage of any horse in this field. His recent speed of 11.92 sec/furlong is second-best, and the jockey/trainer combination has hit at a 21% win rate and 66% in-the-money rate over the past year. He's placed in his last two races, confirming current form, and at 2/1 on the morning line he's worth including on top in exactas.

show7YodaML 6/1

Yoda is a solid exotics piece at 6/1 with a 66.77 rating (3rd in the field) and a solid dirt profile — 2 wins in 20 dirt starts with a 50% in-the-money mark that's the second-best in this race. His third-ranked recent speed of 11.93 sec/furlong is competitive here, and the modest morning line offers some overlay potential for show and exotic tickets.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

9No Moonin29%
5Leaving You Loco29%
7Yoda13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

7:50 PM EST

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Seperate Parish holds the top rating in a messy claiming field, but the intriguing wildcard is Paint My Pirate — a horse coming back from a mammoth layoff whose connections have entered despite a known preference for shorter rests.

win2Seperate ParishML 3/1

Seperate Parish owns the strongest credentials in this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 37% career win rate that sets him apart from the competition. He posted the second-fastest recent race speed (11.74 sec/furlong) and has a strong 300-yard record — 2 wins and placed in 2 of 3 at the distance. The jockey-horse combination has also shown a 13% win rate together, adding a connective angle. At 3/1, he's a deserving favorite and won 26% of our 10,000 simulations.

place6Paint My PirateML 5/1

Paint My Pirate has the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.67 sec/furlong and owns a solid 3-of-4 in-the-money record at Evangeline — this horse clearly knows the track. The massive concern is the 509-day layoff, and the data specifically flags that this horse prefers shorter rest. That's a legitimate red flag, but raw speed and venue familiarity keep the place spot in play at 5/1.

show5Jess Perry a CoronaML 8/1

Jess Perry a Corona at 8/1 offers some value in exotics with a 70.65 rating (3rd in the field) and a solid 300-yard record — 1 win in 3 starts at the distance. The jockey/trainer combo has connected at 19% wins and 58% in the money over the past year. The age concern (8 years old) and an 0-for-8 record at Evangeline are real drawbacks, but the connections and distance familiarity make him worth a small show ticket.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Seperate Parish26%
3Hes Guilty17%
6Paint My Pirate16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

8:15 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

B the Vision leads a legitimate starter allowance field on paper, but Fireballs Deluxe and Cosino Rogue are right on his heels — this 870-yard contest has the makings of a genuine three-horse race with solid form all around.

win7B the VisionML 7/2

B the Vision tops this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and an impressive dirt ledger — 7 wins in 30 starts on the surface. The Luna/Jourdan jockey-trainer combo has combined for a 21% win rate and 66% in-the-money mark over the past year, one of the stronger connections on the card today. His recent speed ranks third in the field at 12.04 sec/furlong, and our sims had him winning 24% of the time — the highest in the race. At 7/2, the value is reasonable.

place1Fireballs DeluxeML 3/1

Fireballs Deluxe earns his place ticket with consistent recent form — placed in 4 consecutive races and 4 of his last 6, as reliable a form cycle as you'll find on this card. The dirt record of 4 wins in 24 starts and a 50% in-the-money rate is solid for this level. At 3/1 morning line, he's a logical exotics partner in what should be a competitive middle portion of the race.

show3Cosino RogueML 9/5

Cosino Rogue is quietly the second-highest sim winner (21%) in the race and brings the strongest 870-yard record of the three top picks — 1 win and placed in 2 of 3 at the distance. He's also placed in 5 of his last 6 races, putting him in excellent recent form, and his dirt record shows 4 wins in 20 starts. At 9/5 he's the morning line favorite, which suggests public confidence, and his distance-specific record makes him a real contender.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

7B the Vision24%
3Cosino Rogue21%
1Fireballs Deluxe19%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

8:40 PM EST

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

Blue Blizzard rates as the class of this 10-horse allowance field, but Six Streakin Blood's blazing recent speed and sizzling current form make this race more competitive than the morning line suggests.

win2Blue BlizzardML 5/1

Blue Blizzard is the top-rated horse in the field at 84.17 and has posted a strong 58% in-the-money career rate across a range of starts. He ranked third in recent race speed at 11.49 sec/furlong, and the Martinez jockey/trainer duo has combined for a 19% win rate and 58% in-the-money mark over the past year — a reliable angle. The concern worth flagging is that he's 1.6 years older than the field average, which is something to watch in a race against younger rivals. Still, our model gives him the highest sim win percentage in the race at nearly 20%.

place10Ace Fortunes N EagleML 3/1

Ace Fortunes N Eagle is the second-rated horse in the field (73.0) and brings the second-fastest recent race speed at 11.43 sec/furlong, right behind Six Streakin Blood. His dirt record of 2 wins and placed in 10 of 18 starts shows a horse that consistently finds the board, and a 55% in-the-money rate is legitimately strong. At 3/1 on the morning line, he looks like fair value in exactas.

show5Six Streakin BloodML 8/1

Six Streakin Blood is an intriguing show play — he posted the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at 11.27 sec/furlong and has placed in 5 consecutive races with 5 in-the-money finishes in his last 6 outings. The concern is a limited 350-yard record (just 1 of 4 in the money at the distance), so the distance is a question mark. But that speed number and current form are impossible to ignore in exotics at 8/1.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Blue Blizzard20%
10Ace Fortunes N Eagle18%
1Your Wagon Or Mine15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

9:05 PM EST

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

One Sweet Tap holds the top rating in this 300-yard claiming field but faces a tougher price test after a claiming price increase — Gambling Girl and Rh Marie Flash add legitimate pace pressure that could make this a wide-open finish.

win2One Sweet TapML 3/1

One Sweet Tap leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and has placed in 4 of his last 6 races, showing real current form heading into this spot. His recent speed of 11.89 sec/furlong ranks second in the field, and a 40% career in-the-money rate supports the idea that this horse knows how to compete. The concerns are real — he's stepping up in claiming price from $7,500 to $10,000 and is 1.7 years older than the field average — but the form cycle and rating advantage are hard to fade. Our sims had him winning 27% of the time.

place4Gambling GirlML 2/1

Gambling Girl is our place selection at 2/1 morning line — she pairs with a Grade-B+ jockey in Randy Edison Jr. and trainer Kenneth Weeks, who grades A-. Her recent race speed of 12.12 sec/furlong ranks third in the field, and while her 300-yard record is a concern (1 of 5 in the money at the distance), her overall profile and sharp connections make her a legitimate threat to hit the board. At 2/1 she may actually offer more value in a place bet than a straight win wager.

show7Rh Marie FlashML 7/2

Rh Marie Flash brings the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.85 sec/furlong — a legitimate speed angle that earns her a spot in exotics. The concern is a cold recent record (placed in just 1 of her last 6 starts) and a limited Evangeline history (1 of 5 in the money at the track). But that top speed figure is real, and at 7/2 on the morning line she's priced attractively enough to include on the bottom of your exotic tickets.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

2One Sweet Tap27%
4Gambling Girl24%
7Rh Marie Flash15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Tonight at Evangeline, Water Lily in Race 1 is the play for free-access readers — solid speed figures, dirt experience, and a fair morning line. For the full card including the intriguing class-drop in Race 2 and our exotic wager tickets, premium analysis is ready for subscribers. Good luck at the windows — and remember, no race is a lock. Bet smart.

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