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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — November 11, 2026

November 11, 20267 racesAll Evangeline picks

Best bets at Evangeline today

Race 12Carter GML 5/26:35 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Evangeline: our top pick won 13 of 56 races (23%) and finished in the money in 36.

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Carter G is our best bet on the free side of today's card — an 87.81-rated maiden claimer in Race 1 sitting at 5/2 on the morning line, backed by a significant claiming price drop from $15,000 down to $7,500 and the third-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.95 sec/furlong. When a horse drops that far in class and brings live speed figures, you pay attention.

Conditions at Evangeline Downs on November 11th are mild and workable — cloudy skies, 68°F, dirt surface throughout all seven races. It's a compact quarter-horse-heavy card with distances ranging from a sharp 220 yards all the way out to 870, so pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race.

What makes today interesting is the mix of maiden and open company, with a couple of allowance spots that look ripe for horses with proven dirt records. Our TrackWiz simulations flagged several horses posting win probabilities well above their morning lines — which is exactly where the value hides.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at 870 yards where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses are both significant class drops, creating a muddled pace picture with no clear speed standout in an all-'unproven' field.

win2Carter GML 5/2

Carter G tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — a full eight points clear of the next horse — and clocks in with the third-fastest recent speed at 12.95 sec/furlong in a race where every horse's style is unproven. The big concern here is a 35-day freshening: our data shows this horse performs at 66.7% WPS with shorter rest but only 14.3% when given 30-plus days off, so the layoff is a real flag. He's also zero-for-four at Evangeline, which adds to the risk. That said, a class drop from $15,000 to $7,500 and a spot on today's TrackWiz Top 50 Horses list suggest connections believe this is the right spot, and our simulations gave him 30.66% — highest in the field.

place3Air Med PilotML 9/5

Air Med Pilot rates second in the field at 79.55 and brings the second-fastest recent speed figure (12.92 sec/furlong), making him a legitimate contender on paper despite a modest 1-for-4 record at this distance. He's also dropping from $15,000 to $7,500, which is exactly the kind of class relief that can unlock a horse in a spot like this. The concern is a thin recent form line — just one placing in the last six tries — so manage your expectations and use him in exacta/trifecta slots rather than betting him heavily to win.

show5Mda One Sweet StormML 5/1

Mda One Sweet Storm checks in third on the TrackWiz ratings at 51.63 — well behind the top pair — but a class drop from $15,000 to $7,500 and a 20% in-the-money rate give him a realistic path to hitting the board. He's been struggling lately with no placings in his last five tries, which is a legitimate concern. At morning-line odds of 5/1, he offers some value as a trifecta fill if the top two finish as expected.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Carter G31%
3Air Med Pilot30%
5Mda One Sweet Storm12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 1 is your free look, and Carter G is the play. The class drop angle is one of the most reliable edges in claiming races — a horse stepping from $15,000 to $7,500 company is essentially bringing a gun to a knife fight on paper. Pair that with competitive speed and a 30.66% TrackWiz sim win probability against a 5/2 morning line, and you've got a horse whose implied odds may undervalue his actual chances. The "unproven" run style tag means we don't have a locked-in pace profile, but in a short maiden claimer that's less of a liability than it would be in a route.

Keep an eye on the dirt all day — all seven races are on the main track, and any horses showing consistent dirt records (like Hezaspecial Lorenzo's 6-of-7 hit rate and Mda Cartel Patriot's field-best speed figure of 11.55 sec/furlong in the premium races) will carry extra weight in our full card analysis. Today's card rewards horses that belong on this surface, and the numbers back that up.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:00 PM EST

Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Ten-horse sprint at 350 yards where the top three TrackWiz-rated runners are separated by fewer than nine points, the class drop angle is working all over the card, and several horses have speed figures bunched closely enough to make this genuinely competitive.

win8Runaway GalileaML 3/1

Runaway Galilea sits at the top of TrackWiz's ratings for this race at 87.08 and earns a spot on today's Top 50 Horses list — a good sign heading into the gate. The class drop from $20,000 to $10,000 is notable, and a 40% in-the-money rate across the career shows this horse knows how to hit the board. There's no Lasix concern here unlike some rivals, and our sims gave Runaway Galilea a 22.01% win share, which aligns well with the 3/1 morning line. At that price, this is a solid value play for a horse the model genuinely likes.

place7Five Bar PrissML 4/1

Five Bar Priss has the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.01 sec/furlong and comes in with a 83.67 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race. The class drop from $20,000 to $10,000, combined with an A- jockey grade for Adrian X. Morales and an A- trainer grade, sets up a confident connections angle. The concern is a cold recent form line with no placings in the last three races, and sprint distance records are modest. Still, speed figures don't lie at 350 yards, and Five Bar Priss won 18.49% of our 10,000 simulations — a solid placement candidate.

show9Full DrawML 2/1

Full Draw opens at 2/1 on the morning line but rates third on our model at 78.76, behind Runaway Galilea and Five Bar Priss. The third-fastest speed figure in the field (12.04 sec/furlong) is respectable, and the horse has an A- trainer in Jose U. Lopez. The form cycle has been inconsistent — only one placing in the last five tries — which explains why TrackWiz sees the two horses above it as better bets, but Full Draw is still a legitimate show play in a bunched field.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Runaway Galilea22%
9Full Draw20%
7Five Bar Priss18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:25 PM EST

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

Tight allowance dash at 300 yards where two horses — Hezaspecial Lorenzo and Pistol Packing Angel — stand out dramatically from the rest of the field on both ratings and recent form, setting up what looks like a two-horse match race for the win.

win3Hezaspecial LorenzoML 2/1

Hezaspecial Lorenzo is the top-rated horse in this race at 88.54 and brings a remarkable 85% in-the-money percentage — a number that speaks for itself in a field like this. The second-fastest recent speed figure (11.78 sec/furlong) backs up the form, and six of seven career races on dirt have resulted in a placing or win. Our simulations gave Lorenzo a 31.29% win share, the highest in the field. The only real knock is a C-grade jockey, but the horse's own form line makes the connections concern manageable.

place8Pistol Packing AngelML 7/2

Pistol Packing Angel has the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.65 sec/furlong and a 75% in-the-money rate — just behind Lorenzo on that metric. Rated second in the field at 82.17, this horse has placed in three of the last four races and shows a 1-for-4 win record on dirt. Our simulations gave Pistol Packing Angel 24.71% — the second-highest win share — making the 7/2 morning line reasonable value for a horse with this kind of consistent form.

show7Slippery SlopesML 5/1

Slippery Slopes rates third in the field at 59.05 — a noticeable gap behind the top two — but a 60% in-the-money rate and three placings in the last five races make this horse a credible exotic fill. The dirt record shows one win and a placing in three of five starts, which is consistent enough for a show ticket. At 5/1 morning line, Slippery Slopes offers a reasonable hedge if Lorenzo or Pistol Packing Angel have a troubled trip.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Hezaspecial Lorenzo31%
8Pistol Packing Angel25%
7Slippery Slopes13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

7:50 PM EST

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint at 350 yards that looks like a showcase for Mda Cartel Patriot, who dominates the TrackWiz ratings and speed figures — but Rc Courage and Coronito have strong recent form that keeps the exacta and trifecta interesting.

win6Mda Cartel PatriotML 8/5

Mda Cartel Patriot is the class of this field, plain and simple — a 89.12 TrackWiz rating (ratingRank 1) and the fastest recent speed figure in the race at 11.55 sec/furlong are a powerful combination. A 75% in-the-money rate and three placings in the last four starts show this horse is consistent, with one win on dirt in four tries backing up the numbers. Our sims gave Mda Cartel Patriot a 37.04% win share — by far the highest in the field. The only flag worth watching is running without Lasix while five rivals are using it, which can occasionally affect performance.

place1Rc CourageML 12/1

Rc Courage looks like a live longshot at 12/1 morning line — the horse has placed in two of three dirt starts and has hit the board in two of the last three races, which is solid form for a maiden. Rated second in the field at 68.23 by TrackWiz, Rc Courage is well-clear of most of the field on the model. Trainer Martin Trejo holds an A- grade, which adds confidence in this spot, and 12.65% sim win share suggests real value at double-digit odds.

show2CoronitoML 5/1

Coronito has the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.76 sec/furlong and rates third overall at 66.03. With a B+ jockey and a 33% in-the-money rate, this horse has the raw credentials to be on the podium. At 5/1 morning line, Coronito is a sensible trifecta piece if Mda Cartel Patriot leads the way and Rc Courage runs his usual solid race.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Mda Cartel Patriot37%
2Coronito15%
4Zactex Ivory15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

8:15 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

Starter optional claiming over 870 yards where Blue Castle's dominant ratings and elite distance record make it the clear class of the field, though an eight-horse field full of veterans creates meaningful place and show intrigue.

win3Blue CastleML 2/1

Blue Castle is the standout in this race — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating (ratingRank 1) and an extraordinary record of two wins and nine placings in eleven tries at this exact distance of 870 yards is about as convincing a form line as you'll find. The horse has also placed in four of the last six races and shows 13 total placings in 19 dirt starts. The only concern is a short 21-day rest period when this horse performs better with 30-plus days off, which is worth noting. Our sims gave Blue Castle 31.12% — the top win share — and at 2/1 morning line, the value isn't enormous but the confidence is.

place8Deep Diamond TmML 3/1

Deep Diamond Tm comes in second on the TrackWiz model at 61.77 — a significant step below Blue Castle but well ahead of most rivals — and has placed in each of the last four races, which is exactly the kind of consistent form you want from a horse you're betting to show or place. The 45% career in-the-money rate and multiple wins at this surface and distance are strong positives. Yes, the horse is seven years old, which is typically past peak form, but the recent consistency suggests the age concern hasn't materialized yet.

show5Lets Go TwoML 12/1

Lets Go Two shows the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.69 sec/furlong, which is an intriguing pace angle for a horse coming off 158 days on the shelf. The TrackWiz model rates this horse third at 56.38, and a record of one win and two placings in three tries at Evangeline suggests this track suits the horse well. The long layoff is the question mark — connections may just be tightening the horse up — but the speed figure and track record make this a compelling show play at 12/1.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Blue Castle31%
8Deep Diamond Tm17%
1Cecilia Jess Blue13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

8:40 PM EST

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

An allowance dash at 300 yards anchored by two closely-matched high-rated horses — Tee Prairie and All Politics Astride — who both boast elite speed figures and strong form cycles, setting up a compelling top-two battle with Onlyeyesonme as an interesting longer-priced piece.

win4Tee PrairieML 2/1

Tee Prairie is the top TrackWiz-rated horse in this field at 88.54 and owns the fastest recent speed figure at 11.75 sec/furlong — the two most important numbers in a short sprint. A 62% in-the-money rate and five consecutive placings heading into today are the kind of current form that earns trust. The horse has one win and five placings in eight dirt starts, and our simulations gave Tee Prairie a 28.05% win share — highest in the field. At 2/1 morning line, this is TrackWiz's most confident play of the race.

place1All Politics AstrideML 5/2

All Politics Astride is right on Tee Prairie's heels with an 85.61 rating and the third-fastest speed figure in the race (11.96 sec/furlong). The jockey/trainer combo of Chavarria Espinosa and Roberts has combined for a 20% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate over the past year — a legit angle in a spot like this. The only concern is a slightly short rest period of 26 days when this horse prefers 30-plus days. With a 53% career in-the-money rate and 24.87% sim win share, All Politics Astride at 5/2 is a strong place play.

show3OnlyeyesonmeML 5/1

Onlyeyesonme is a fascinating puzzle — 25% career win rate, a 50% in-the-money rate, and two consecutive placings entering today, yet this horse is coming back after 496 days off the bench. That's a massive layoff, and connections may genuinely just be looking for a race to sharpen the horse up. Weak workout times in the past month add to the fitness question. That said, an A- trainer grade and two for four on dirt are real positives, and at 5/1, there's enough upside to include this horse in exotics.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Tee Prairie28%
1All Politics Astride25%
3Onlyeyesonme13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:05 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden claiming sprint at 220 yards where the two highest-rated horses — Jb Jess Lights and Shes Bold as Capita — are separated by just over a point and both bring compelling angles, making this a genuinely tight top-of-the-card battle.

win2Jb Jess LightsML 4/1

Jb Jess Lights is the top-rated horse in this field at 85.62 and owns the fastest recent speed figure at 12.02 sec/furlong — both the right credentials for a 220-yard sprint. The horse has placed in each of the last two races, showing current form heading into today. An A- trainer grade for Jose Carrizales and B+ jockey Randy Edison Jr. make the connections a strength as well. Our simulations gave Jb Jess Lights a 20.96% win share — third-highest but well-supported — and at 4/1 morning line, the price is fair for the top pick.

place3Shes Bold as CapitaML 7/2

Shes Bold as Capita is separated from Jb Jess Lights by just 1.2 rating points at 84.42, making this essentially a coin flip between two top-tier horses. The standout angle here is the connections: jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez has posted an 18% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate over the past year, and the jockey/trainer combo with Luis R. Martinez, Jr. boasts a 20% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate. Our sims actually gave Shes Bold as Capita the highest win share in the field at 22.42% — slightly edging Jb Jess Lights — which at 7/2 morning line makes this a strong play to hit the board.

show1Ms JamessML 5/2

Ms Jamess opens at 5/2 as the morning-line favorite despite ranking third on the TrackWiz model at 65.07 — suggesting the public sees something in this horse the model doesn't fully price in. The concern is a modest recent record of one placing in four sprint and four dirt starts, which raises questions about whether the ML price reflects legitimate edge or just name recognition. That said, the 25% in-the-money rate and post position 1 in a 220-yard dash — where breaking well matters — keep this horse in play as a show selection.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Shes Bold as Capita22%
2Jb Jess Lights21%
1Ms Jamess16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: Carter G in Race 1 is the free play of the day — class drop, speed, and a sim probability that outpaces the morning line. For the full seven-race breakdown including pace shapes, exotic tickets, and our best premium bets, subscribers have everything they need to attack this card. Good luck out there.

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