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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — November 6, 2026

November 6, 20267 racesAll Evangeline picks

This card ran on November 6, 2026.

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Best bets at Evangeline, November 6, 2026

Race 13Puroo VenenooML 2/16:35 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Evangeline: our top pick won 13 of 56 races (23%) and finished in the money in 36.

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Puroo Venenoo is our best bet on tonight's free card — this maiden clocked the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.59 sec/furlong and has placed in 4 of 7 dirt starts, giving us a real edge in a wide-open Race 1 opener. At 2/1 on the morning line with a 30.47% sim win rate, the value is right there.

Conditions at Evangeline Downs tonight are about as good as you'll get — clear skies, a comfortable 68°F, and a fast dirt surface that should reward the speediest horses on the board. Seven races are on the card, all on dirt, all short sprints in that classic Louisiana Quarter Horse format where raw speed and recent form mean everything.

What makes tonight interesting is the mix of maiden, claiming, and optional claiming company spread across distances from a lightning-quick 110 yards all the way out to 400 yards. That variety creates some real handicapping puzzles — and a few spots where the sharp money can find genuine value.

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Race 1

6:35 PM EST

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A short-field maiden sprint over 300 yards that sets up as a two-horse show on paper — the top two TrackWiz ratings are separated by six points and account for the lion's share of simulation wins, leaving the rest of the field scrambling for a piece.

win3Puroo VenenooML 2/1

Puroo Venenoo earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 and leads the way in recent race speed, clocking 11.59 sec/furlong — fastest in the field by a comfortable margin. The horse has placed in four of its last six starts and hit the board in four of seven dirt races, so there's a real pattern of consistency here even without a career win yet. Trainer Martin Trejo holds an A- grade, which adds a layer of confidence in the conditioning. Our simulations have Puroo Venenoo winning this race in roughly 30% of 10,000 runs — easily the highest mark in the field — and the 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate favoritism.

place8Mda Ivory WomanML 5/1

Mda Ivory Woman checks in as the second-highest rated horse in this field at 82.23 and brings the strongest in-the-money record of any horse in the race — placing in four of six overall starts and in two of three tries on dirt specifically. The one flag worth noting is that she's skipping Lasix while seven others in the field are using it, which can sometimes be a subtle disadvantage in sprint races. That said, her consistency speaks loudly, and she's worth stacking underneath the top pick in exactas.

show6San Lorenzo MagicML 4/1

San Lorenzo Magic rates third in this field at 64.33 and sports a 40% in-the-money mark across her career, giving her some appeal as a show play. She draws the six-hole behind a couple of layoff horses, and jockey Adrian X. Morales brings an A- grade to the saddle. No significant red flags here — no major concerns flagged in our model — making her a reasonable single underneath in trifecta tickets.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Puroo Venenoo30%
8Mda Ivory Woman20%
6San Lorenzo Magic15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 1 is the one you get in full tonight without a subscription, and it's a good one to anchor your card around. Puroo Venenoo brings a top speed figure in a maiden field where consistency on the dirt is exactly the angle to lean on. Four placings from seven dirt starts tells you this horse knows its job — and in a 300-yard dash, there's almost no time to recover from a slow break, so speed profile matters enormously here.

Tonight's clear, dry conditions are a plus for a horse carrying strong recent figures. No weather excuses, no sloppy footing — just raw talent over a fast strip. If Puroo Venenoo breaks cleanly, this race could be over before the casual eye even picks up the field.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:00 PM EST

Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard claiming sprint features a clear top two on the numbers — Diamond in the Ruff and Comparame hold a significant rating edge over the rest — but with multiple claiming price drops in the field, connections are maneuvering for spots, and the bottom of the wagering pools could get interesting.

win5Diamond in the RuffML 2/1

Diamond in the Ruff is the most compelling horse in this field — top TrackWiz rating at 88.54, fastest recent race speed at 11.67 sec/furlong, and the only horse in the field that has placed in each of its last four races. That kind of hot streak in a sprint claiming field is exactly what you want to see from a win pick. Our simulations back it up: Diamond in the Ruff won about 31% of 10,000 runs, nearly 10 points clear of the next closest. At 2/1 on the morning line, it's fairly priced but still the most logical single.

place6ComparameML 5/1

Comparame is the natural backup here with an 81.49 rating and a 50% lifetime in-the-money mark — one of the best in this field. She's also placed in four of her last six starts and shows third-best recent race speed at 11.90 sec/furlong, plus solid dirt track form with eight wins and placed in eight of sixteen dirt starts. The C-graded jockey is a minor knock, but the form cycle and dirt record make her a logical exacta partner with Diamond in the Ruff.

show2Sonjas Stellar LunaML 6/1

Sonjas Stellar Luna at 6/1 on the morning line offers some fringe value as the third pick. She sits third in TrackWiz ratings at 53.78 and comes off a 105-day layoff — our model notes she may just be looking for a race to sharpen up — but the 33% in-the-money mark is decent, and jockey Juan Francisco Garcia Jr. gets a B grade. With a few live horses dropping in class ahead of her, she could be the horse that sneaks into the exotics at a digestible price.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Diamond in the Ruff31%
6Comparame21%
4Jrs Majestic Jet Eye13%

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Race 3

7:25 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 110 yd · Dirt

This 110-yard maiden claimer is an ultra-short sprint where top speed figures aren't the whole story — several of these horses are stepping down in distance from longer sprints, and those that regularly run 110-yard races should have a form edge over horses still adjusting to the blink-and-it's-over format.

win5Witchs CurlML 5/1

Witchs Curl tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and ranks second in recent race speed at 12.15 sec/furlong for this field. Importantly, she's been averaging 0.2-mile races but steps down to this 0.1-mile test — a distance where horses that can accelerate quickly out of the gate carry a real advantage. She's placed in 25% of her career starts, and trainer Gary Shane Mason keeps things honest even with a C grade. The concern about limited dirt and sprint form (1-for-4 in both categories) is worth noting, but the speed figures and rating still make her the most defensible win pick.

place6One Dashing BugML 7/2

One Dashing Bug rates second in the field at 81.58 with a 35% in-the-money mark and has been running 0.1-mile races regularly — that distance familiarity is a genuine edge in a race this short. The one concern flagged in our model is a short rest cycle of only 23 days, as this horse performs better with 30-plus days off. If that layoff pattern holds, she might just fall short of the win, making place the right spot to target her in the wagering.

show7Black Magic IncML 5/2

Black Magic Inc slots in at 5/2 on the morning line — shorter than you'd expect for a show pick — with an 80.99 rating and a 33% in-the-money rate. The horse has been away 154 days, which our model flags as a possible 'tightener' start, and has been averaging 0.2-mile races rather than the ultra-short 110-yard distance today. That's a legit concern, but the figures are strong enough that finishing third wouldn't be a surprise if the rust is minimal. Worth including in trifectas.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Black Magic Inc21%
6One Dashing Bug19%
5Witchs Curl18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

7:50 PM EST

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 400-yard maiden where the morning-line favorite Tdz Thelouisianawave carries the best recent speed but troubling form in this exact distance, and the top TrackWiz rating belongs to a horse going off at 5/1 — expect the pools to be spread out with real opportunities in the exotics.

win2Virginias Fast DashML 5/1

Virginias Fast Dash earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 81.68 and ranks second in recent race speed at 11.80 sec/furlong — close enough to the leader to suggest she can run with the best of them here. She shows a 33% in-the-money rate, and while the trainer Teddy Guy Jr. carries a C grade, jockey Rene Hernandez gets a C+ and has been active on the Evangeline circuit. Our simulations give her roughly 20% of the wins in this race, making the 5/1 morning line look like fair value compared to her credentials.

place5Our Runaway TrainML 5/2

Our Runaway Train is the second choice in our simulations at 21.72% — just barely edging out the morning-line favorite — with a 45% in-the-money rate that leads this entire field. She hasn't got a big speed figure angle in the data, but that career consistency is real and hard to ignore in a maiden sprint where others have question marks. At 5/2, she's priced fairly and fits naturally as the place pick in multi-leg wagers.

show4One Sweet TateML 12/1

One Sweet Tate at 12/1 on the morning line is a potential value add in trifecta slots — she ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 73.96 and has placed in four of her last six starts, which is solid form for a maiden. The knock is a limited Evangeline record (1-for-6 at this track specifically), but the recent form cycle is trending the right way. If the top two hold, she gives you a mid-price finisher to anchor the bottom of your tickets.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Tdz Thelouisianawave23%
5Our Runaway Train22%
2Virginias Fast Dash20%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

8:15 PM EST

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

Mda Runaway Train stands out as a class apart in this 350-yard maiden — a horse with a 33% career win rate and consistent dirt form dropping into a field of winless maidens — but a pair of speed horses with legitimate figures could make this more competitive than the numbers suggest at first glance.

win6Mda Runaway TrainML 7/2

Mda Runaway Train is the most experienced and accomplished horse in this field by a significant margin, posting a 33% career win rate against a group of horses with zero wins combined. The numbers back up the pedigree: a top TrackWiz rating of 86.35, a 66% in-the-money mark, and a form line that includes wins and placements in two of three dirt races. Our simulations have this horse taking the race 26% of the time, comfortably ahead of the field. The Lasix concern (not using it while five others are) is worth flagging, but the overall profile is too strong to look past.

place7Apollitical VodkaML 3/1

Apollitical Vodka rates second in the field at 75.89 with a 50% in-the-money mark and ranks third in recent race speed at 11.95 sec/furlong — good enough to suggest she can keep up with the top of the field. She's placed in two of four dirt starts, adding some surface reliability to the speed figures. At 3/1, she's fairly priced as the most likely horse to run Mda Runaway Train down if that horse has any trouble.

show1Mp Famous FlyerML 9/2

Mp Famous Flyer offers some intrigue at 9/2 as the horse that leads this field in recent race speed at 11.80 sec/furlong — a legitimate edge in a sprint where every fraction counts. The 33% in-the-money rate is consistent, and jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa holds an A- grade. The flag here is that she's skipping Lasix while five competitors are using it, which could affect her stamina in the closing strides. Still a solid show play for trifecta purposes.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Mda Runaway Train26%
7Apollitical Vodka20%
4Leesa Gone Rogue17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

8:40 PM EST

Optional Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

Mamma Im Leaving You enters this optional claiming sprint as one of the most dominant-looking horses you'll find on the Evangeline card — a 53% career win rate, elite recent speed, and a jockey-trainer combination with proven chemistry — making this a rare race where fading the top pick takes some real conviction.

win1Mamma Im Leaving YouML 9/5

Mamma Im Leaving You is simply in a different tier here. A 53% career win rate paired with a 84% in-the-money mark speaks for itself, and the horse leads this field in recent race speed at 11.02 sec/furlong — a figure that is a substantial step faster than the next quickest horse. The jockey-trainer combo of Noe Castaneda and Jose Lopez has produced a 21% win rate and 49% in-the-money rate together over the past year, per our data. Add in seven wins from 13 dirt starts and a top TrackWiz rating of 88.83, and our simulations have this horse winning 36% of the time. The only blemish is a workout figure that ranks sixth in this field — something to watch, but not enough to knock her off the top of the ticket.

place4Runnning With FaithML 9/2

Runnning With Faith has quietly built one of the more reliable form profiles in this race — a 21% career win rate with a 63% in-the-money mark — and she's placed in each of her last two starts heading into today. Her Evangeline-specific record stands out: one win and placed in four of five tries at this very track, which is the kind of local edge you can't manufacture. At 9/2, she's a solid place bet underneath the heavy top choice.

show5Jess Another MorninML 8/1

Jess Another Mornin brings a 28% career win rate and a 64% in-the-money mark — the second-best in-the-money percentage in this race behind the top pick — along with the third-fastest recent race speed at 11.29 sec/furlong. She's placed in four of her last six starts, suggesting consistent form heading into today. At 8/1 on the morning line, she represents genuine value as a show play and a live pick in trifecta slots if the top half of the field runs up to their billing.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Mamma Im Leaving You36%
4Runnning With Faith15%
7Rf Imperial Choice12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

9:05 PM EST

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse 300-yard maiden with a clear top two on TrackWiz ratings, but a relatively thin separation between horses 3 through 6 makes the bottom of the exotic pools genuinely competitive — expect some churn in the trifecta.

win8A Guerrero SecretML 5/2

A Guerrero Secret leads this race in TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and brings the most consistent recent form in the field — placed in four of six career dirt starts and hit the board in each of the last two races. She ranks third in recent race speed at 12.00 sec/furlong, which is good enough to be competitive in a 300-yard dash where there's no margin for error. Our simulations back her up with a 28% win rate across 10,000 runs, the highest in this field. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's correctly installed as the favorite, and the form profile justifies it.

place3Fiscal WarningML 4/1

Fiscal Warning has a perfect 3-for-3 in-the-money record on dirt — a 100% hit rate that stands alone in this field — and has placed in each of her last three starts, which is the kind of streak that earns your respect in a maiden sprint. She ranks second in the field in recent race speed at 11.98 sec/furlong and holds a TrackWiz rating of 83.41. Trainer Robert Meche and jockey Yaidel Rodriguez haven't made noise with big grades, but that form cycle speaks for itself, and 4/1 is a fair price.

show4AnothermondayML 7/2

Anothermonday at 7/2 morning line holds the third-highest TrackWiz rating in this race at 60.51 and shows a 50% in-the-money mark with a decent dirt track record — placed in two of four dirt starts. She's not the flashiest pick in the race, but in a ten-horse field where the top two are well-established and the rest of the field is inconsistent, she offers enough form to be a reliable trifecta anchor. Worth including in any multi-horse exotic play.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

8A Guerrero Secret28%
3Fiscal Warning21%
4Anothermonday14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Tonight at Evangeline, start with Puroo Venenoo in Race 1 as your free anchor play, then let TrackWiz's full premium card guide you through six more races of Louisiana sprint action. The conditions are perfect, the card is intriguing, and there's real money to be made if you've got the right information. Full analysis is live now for subscribers — don't head to the windows without it.

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