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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — October 24, 2026

October 24, 20267 racesAll Evangeline picks

It's a beautiful fall Saturday at Evangeline Downs — clear skies, 76°F, and a fast strip that should reward horses with early punch. With seven races on the card, all run on dirt at distances ranging from 250 yards all the way out to 400 yards, this is a pure quarter-horse speed showcase. Get comfortable, because these races are decided in the blink of an eye.

Today's card mixes maiden claimers and open claimers in the early going before shifting into a trio of allowance events that form the heart of the afternoon. That allowance stretch — Races 4 through 6 — is where the better horses live, and our ratings show some genuinely strong figures in that block. Race 7 closes things out with a maiden sprint at 400 yards, the day's longest test, giving late-developing types a shot to shine.

The weather couldn't be more cooperative. A dry track and mild temps mean no excuses — every horse gets an honest shot, and speed figures should translate cleanly. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards with a full field of first-timers — no career stats to lean on, so TrackWiz ratings are doing the heavy lifting here.

win1Lm Shez an EagleML 2/1

Lm Shez an Eagle draws the rail in the morning-line favorite spot at 2/1, and our TrackWiz rating of 88.54 puts her well clear of this field — the next-closest runner is more than 20 points back. In a race where nobody has a win to their name, that kind of separation in the model matters. Eddi Emanuel Martinez gets the call for trainer Luis R. Martinez, Jr., a barn that clearly had this horse ready to fire first out. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the separation in our ratings makes her the right side of the bet.

place6Jess Ran AwayML 9/2

Jess Ran Away comes in at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 68.13 — second-best in this field and a solid foundation for exotic coverage. Trainer Kenneth L. Roberts, Sr. is a familiar name around this circuit, and getting Leonardo Palomo in the irons adds a competent hand for a first-out runner. At nearly 5-1, there's real value in the place slot if the favorite handles the break cleanly.

show10Jrs Innocent GirlML 4/1

Jrs Innocent Girl checks in third on our ratings board at 61.36 and gets morning-line respect at 4/1 from the oddsmaker. Trainer Jose D. Barron also saddles Tf Majestic Fdd in this race, which speaks to his familiarity with the conditions — and Innocent Girl is clearly his better hope. She rounds out a logical exacta/trifecta play behind the top two rated horses.

Race 2

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Quick Lady Fury is a significant ratings outlier in this 300-yard claimer, but two live threats lurk near the top — this one could produce a sharp exacta if the favorite gets challenged at the break.

win6Quick Lady FuryML 5/1

Quick Lady Fury owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.17 — nearly 22 points ahead of the next-best horse — while going off at a tempting 5/1 on the morning line. That kind of ratings dominance paired with morning-line value is exactly the profile we want at the top of a ticket. Jockey Yaidel Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Robert Meche, and with a career win rate that sits at 16%, there's room for upside if she clicks at this level. In a short 300-yard dash where every fraction of a second counts, a horse this far ahead on our model deserves to be your single.

place2Fast Dashin FortuneML 3/1

Fast Dashin Fortune brings a 22% career win rate into this spot — among the better marks in the field — and posts a TrackWiz rating of 62.44. Trainer Brenda Foster has her going at 3/1, making her the morning-line second choice and a logical place contender. She pairs naturally with the top pick in an exacta.

show3Tk Eyema StruttinML 5/2

Tk Eyema Struttin is right on Fast Dashin Fortune's heels with a 62.10 rating and a 25% career win rate — actually the best win percentage in the field. The morning line of 5/2 suggests the oddsmaker sees her as a legitimate factor, and trainer Larry D. Keith putting her in this field at a neutral price is worth noting. She's the one to beat if the top two stumble.

Race 3

11:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Three horses are bunched within fractions of a point at the top of the ratings in this maiden claiming 350-yard dash — the tightest top trio we'll see all card, and it sets up a competitive scramble.

win3Why Im Leaving YouML 3/1

Why Im Leaving You edges out this field with the top TrackWiz rating of 85.21, and she does it with zero career starts to her name — making trainer Shane Ladner's confidence in running her at 3/1 on the morning line all the more interesting. In maiden sprints, first-out runners at fair odds with strong model support are often underlays that never get to the gate again at this price. Jockey Ubaldo Luna gets the mount and will need a clean break in a race that's decided in less than a second of ground-breaking.

place10Locomotive ExplosionML 9/5

Locomotive Explosion is the only horse in this field with a published career win percentage — a substantial 33% — which means she's actually been to the races and knows how to fire. Her TrackWiz rating of 85.08 is essentially a dead heat with the top pick, and trainer Arturo Solis Carrillo sends her out as the 9/5 morning-line chalk. The win-place order here is razor-thin and could easily be reversed — make sure you box these two.

show9Georgias Gray GhostML 9/2

Georgias Gray Ghost comes in at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 — third in a trio of horses separated by less than a third of a point. Randy Edison Jr. hops aboard for trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara, and at nearly 5-1, she offers real trifecta value as the third wheel behind two near-identical top ratings. Don't leave her off the ticket.

We're releasing full analysis on the first three races at no charge today. In Race 1, Lm Shez an Eagle (morning line 2/1) carries our top rating of 88.54 in a 250-yard maiden claimer — she's the class of the field at a sprint distance that leaves no room for error, and on a quick track she should fire right out of the gate. Race 2 is where the value lives: Quick Lady Fury opens at 5/1 in the 300-yard claimer, and her TrackWiz rating of 84.17 suggests the morning-line price isn't telling the whole story — she's a legitimate contender that the market may be undervaluing. Keep an eye on her.

In Race 3, Why Im Leaving You (3/1) is our top choice in a 350-yard maiden claimer with a solid 85.21 rating. All three free picks are short-sprinters on a surface playing fast today, so expect clean breaks and front-running efforts to dominate. If you're building an early pick-3 ticket, these three form a strong foundation.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

Man for Cos looks like the class of this allowance field by a significant margin, but there's a sneaky value play lurking underneath — and a longshot show contender that could pay nicely in the exotic pools.

win9Man for CosML 8/5

Man for Cos is as clear a top pick as you'll find on this card — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 backed by a staggering 57% career win rate makes him the standout in this 350-yard allowance. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. climbs aboard for trainer Jose A. Garcia, and that combination deserves respect on a short sprint surface. At 8/5 on the morning line, he's not a value bet outright, but in exotics he's your anchor — a horse with more than half his career starts ending in victories is a rare find at this level.

place7Lil Ivory LegacyML 3/1

Lil Ivory Legacy rates 58.95 on our model and gets the morning-line second-choice nod at 3/1 under Randy Edison Jr. for trainer Braulio Hernandez. His 16% career win rate is modest compared to the favorite, but in a wide field this is the horse most likely to hold down the place position behind the big gun. Straightforward inclusion in your exacta.

show6Geared DownML 15/1

Geared Down is the value angle in this race — a 56.59 rating and a 25% career win rate, but listed at 15/1 on the morning line. Trainer Samantha A. Pena and jockey Lucas Constantin are a quieter combination, which may explain the generous morning price. If Man for Cos runs his race, Geared Down at a big number in the show spot is exactly the kind of trifecta sweetener worth a few extra dollars.

Race 5

12:15 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

Cie Hombre stands out as the lone elite-rated horse in this allowance sprint, but a pair of solid mid-range horses could make the exacta and trifecta worth attacking.

win5Cie HombreML 7/2

Cie Hombre's TrackWiz rating of 86.35 is more than 20 points ahead of the second-best horse in this field — commanding separation in an 8-horse allowance at 350 yards. Russell Leblanc gets the mount for trainer Gus W. Holliday III, and while Cie Hombre's 11% career win rate isn't eye-popping, the model gap here is too large to ignore. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's still some value attached — this feels like a horse the books haven't fully caught up with.

place7Fly SweetsML 3/1

Fly Sweets checks in at 65.56 on our ratings board and carries a 16% career win rate into this spot for the Keith barn with Leonardo Rodriguez in the saddle. Trainer Larry D. Keith is familiar with this distance and surface, and at 3/1 on the morning line, Fly Sweets is clearly the second choice the oddsmaker trusts. She's the natural partner for Cie Hombre in your exacta.

show2Streakin PriscilaML 8/1

Streakin Priscila opens at 8/1 despite a solid TrackWiz rating of 62.18 — third-best in the field — which suggests there may be some hidden value here for exotic players. Trainer Miguel Hernandez sends her out without a career win percentage on file, hinting she may have limited experience, but the model likes her enough to slot her into the show position. At 8/1, she adds meaningful upside to any trifecta ticket.

Race 6

12:40 AM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

Conair Cartel owns the top rating in this 330-yard allowance, but Mr La's perfect career record and a barn shipping in two horses make this a race where the connections matter as much as the figures.

win3Conair CartelML 2/1

Conair Cartel sits at 88.54 on our TrackWiz model and carries a 57% career win rate — that's a horse who wins more often than not, and the numbers back it up. Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez doubles up in this race, which tells you the barn is confident in their operation here. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. — the same jockey who pilots Man for Cos in Race 4 — gets the call, and at 2/1 on the morning line, this is the horse to build your tickets around.

place1Mr LaML 3/1

Mr La is legitimately interesting — a 100% career win rate at a rating of 72.85 means every time this horse has shown up, he's won. J. R. Ramirez takes the mount for trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez, the same barn as the top pick, which is a somewhat unusual dynamic. At 3/1, he's got the raw credentials to steal this race — the question is whether he's facing stiffer company today than in prior wins.

show4Mp Coco PilotML 9/2

Mp Coco Pilot posts a 55.25 rating with a 33% career win rate and gets a fair shot at 9/2 on the morning line under Ubaldo Luna for trainer Adalberto Miranda. He sits in the middle of this field in both price and ratings, making him a sensible third choice that exotic bettors should include. In a race with two highly credentialed horses at the top, getting a 9/2 show price on a horse with a third of his starts in the winner's circle is a decent spot.

Race 7

1:05 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

All maidens at 400 yards — the lone standout on our ratings model is Bp Wheelin N Dealin, but Tha Deuce and Memphys Blu have enough substance to make the exotics worth attacking.

win4Bp Wheelin N DealinML 9/2

Bp Wheelin N Dealin is the clear top pick in this maiden sprint with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 — more than 24 points ahead of the second-best horse in the field. Rene Hernandez takes the call for trainer Juan M. Montoya, Jr., and in a race full of first-time starters, that kind of model separation is hard to fade. At 9/2 on the morning line, the price is actually fair given the gap — this is the horse to single in your vertical bets if you're looking to simplify.

place1Tha DeuceML 4/1

Tha Deuce comes in as the second-highest rated horse at 60.48, drawing the rail at program number 1 for trainer Donald Rubin with Lucas Constantin aboard. In a maiden sprint at 400 yards, the rail can be a double-edged sword depending on how traffic breaks, but Tha Deuce has enough ratings cushion over the lower half of this field to hold a place position. At 4/1, he's a natural exacta play beneath the top pick.

show5Memphys BluML 3/1

Memphys Blu opens at 3/1 — the morning-line second choice — with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and Leonardo Palomo guiding for trainer Mardonio Flores, Jr. The public is leaning toward him more than our model does, which creates a slight overlay situation on the place pool if Bp Wheelin N Dealin runs as expected. He's a reasonable show inclusion, though the gap between him and the top two is noticeable.

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Bottom line: Evangeline is playing fast today and the quarter-horse speed figures are backed up by ideal conditions. Lm Shez an Eagle, Quick Lady Fury, and Why Im Leaving You are your free best bets to start the afternoon. For the full card — including pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and our allowance-race deep dives — subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there, and may your horses break clean.

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