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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — October 23, 2026

October 23, 20267 racesAll Evangeline picks

It's a gorgeous Friday afternoon at Evangeline Downs — clear skies, 78°F, and a fast dirt track that should have these quarter horses flying from gate to wire. Seven races on the board today, a full slate that mixes maiden claimers and allowance company with a card that has something for every kind of player.

Quarter horse racing at Evangeline is all about explosiveness, and with distances ranging from a lightning-quick 250 yards all the way out to 870 yards in the finale, you've got multiple pace scenarios and handicapping angles to work through. TrackWiz analysis has flagged several horses worth watching, including a couple of morning-line favorites we think are right on the number — and at least one price play worth a serious look.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint over 300 yards with no prior speed figures to lean on — this one comes down to TrackWiz ratings, and the top three are separated by less than a point at the summit.

win3Lsu Winning LadyML 9/2

Lsu Winning Lady draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.9, a slim but meaningful edge over the rest of this maiden bunch. Trainer Kenneth Weeks sends her out with jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez, a pairing that gives the connections solid representation at the line. In a 300-yard dash where there's no room for error, having the highest-rated horse in your corner matters — and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate value here if she fires as expected.

place7Jtf San CoronaML 3/1

Jtf San Corona comes in at a nearly identical TrackWiz rating of 84.88 — essentially a dead heat with the top pick on paper — and gets strong support from trainer Gilberto Rosales. The morning line of 3/1 suggests the market also has this one pegged as a key player, so look for San Corona to be right there at the wire and a critical piece in any exacta or quinella tickets.

show2Jess HereinML 5/2

Jess Herein slots in as our third selection with a solid rating of 80.86 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 5/2, indicating significant public confidence. Jockey Rolando Cabrera is a capable hand in short-distance sprints, and while the rating trails the top two, Herein's market price suggests connections are comfortable shipping in with a live runner. A logical show anchor and an important exotic wheel for the bottom of a trifecta.

Race 2

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

The claiming ranks meet over 330 yards, and one horse's TrackWiz rating towers above the field — but a surprise lurks in the form of a 50% career win rate at 8/1.

win9Tk Me Leaving DutchML 7/2

Tk Me Leaving Dutch posts the top TrackWiz rating in this field at an authoritative 86.35, well clear of the second-ranked runner, and comes in with a 25% career win rate to back it up. Trainer Luis R. Martinez, Jr. puts jockey Ubaldo Luna in the irons — a knowledgeable combination for this level. The morning line of 7/2 feels fair, and our analysis shows enough separation from the field to make Dutch the confident top choice here.

place1Scooters Wild IvoryML 6/1

Scooters Wild Ivory checks in with a 76.28 rating and a 20% career win rate, giving trainer Vann E. Haywood a respectable contender at 6/1. Federico Vargas takes the mount, and while Ivory trails Dutch in the ratings, the gap from second to the rest of the field is meaningful — this one looks well-positioned to secure the place spot and is a solid key in exactas underneath the top pick.

show3Jessa Flyin EagleML 5/2

Jessa Flyin Eagle owns a 70.86 TrackWiz rating and is the morning-line second choice at 5/2, with trainer Carlos Gabriel Castro keeping Rene Hernandez aboard. The 16% career win rate is modest but the market respect is real, and Flyin Eagle's rating puts her comfortably in the top tier of this field. Use her to round out trifecta tickets as a show anchor.

Race 3

11:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint over the ultra-short 250-yard trip puts a heavy premium on raw ability, and one horse separates herself from the pack on our ratings while two others are closely matched for the supporting slots.

win4Pinch That TailML 2/1

Pinch That Tail leads all comers with a TrackWiz rating of 83.84 and draws morning-line favoritism at 2/1, a clear market signal that connections — trainer Trey Ellis and jockey Bobby Ransom — are sending out a live one. Over 250 yards, there's essentially no pace scenario to exploit; it's pure ability off the gate, and Pinch That Tail rates as the fastest horse here by a meaningful margin. Lay the short price and make her the anchor of your exotics.

place2The Strong AllianceML 9/2

The Strong Alliance rates at 73.48 — second best in the field — and comes in at a generous 9/2 on the morning line despite being one of only two horses with a legitimate ratings edge. Trainer Salvador G. Flores puts Rolando Cabrera up, a capable combination, and this filly's profile sets her up perfectly as the place horse to complement Pinch That Tail on top.

show8Jess a DunamiML 6/1

Jess a Dunami rates just a hair behind The Strong Alliance at 73.11, and the 6/1 morning line offers real value for a horse that grades out this well in a maiden field. Trainer Jesus Huitron Lira gives the nod to jockey Alejandro Ochoa, and the ratings gap between Dunami and the fourth-best horse in the race is wide enough to make her a logical show play and trifecta wheel.

The first three races are unlocked for every reader today, and they make for an interesting opening sequence. Pinch That Tail draws our eye in Race 3 — a maiden claimer at 250 yards where the 2/1 morning line is justified by a TrackWiz rating of 83.84 that leads the field. Over the short sprint, any gate advantage gets amplified fast, and this one profiles as a horse who can grab early position and not let go. Lsu Winning Lady (Race 1, 9/2) and Tk Me Leaving Dutch (Race 2, 7/2) round out the free card — both carry strong ratings above 84 and offer a little more overlay value than the chalk if the pools soften them up at post time.

One angle connecting all three free races: on a clear, fast Evangeline strip, early speed has historically been rewarded at these shorter distances. All three of our top free picks profile as horses who want to be on or near the front from the jump — which on a day like today, is exactly where you want to be.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

This allowance sprint over 350 yards features a three-horse cluster at the top of the TrackWiz ratings that all cleared 81, with a tight battle expected from gate to wire — post position and break could be decisive.

win4Sheza Fast PilotoML 5/2

Sheza Fast Piloto leads all allowance runners today with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and is trained by Danny Hoda with Rocky Ramirez Jr. in the saddle. Her 12% career win rate may look modest, but this is an allowance field and the ratings edge is real. At 5/2 on the morning line, she represents the strongest profile in the race and is our top selection to hit the wire first over 350 yards.

place5ChilleyML 9/5

Chilley posts a strong 84.2 rating and is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, backed by a career win rate of 33% — the highest among the top-rated horses in this field. Trainer Adalberto Miranda pairs with Ubaldo Luna, a tandem that clearly has this horse fit and ready. While our model slots her second, the win probability is nearly as strong as the top pick, making her a must-use in all exotic combinations.

show3San Lorenzo KnockoutML 4/1

San Lorenzo Knockout brings a rating of 81.49 and a 16% career win rate, rounding out the top three at 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez and jockey Leonardo Rodriguez give this runner a live shot at board money, and the ratings separation between Knockout and the fourth-best horse is significant enough to make her a reliable show anchor in trifectas.

Race 5

12:15 AM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

A competitive maiden sprint at 330 yards where the top of the field is tightly packed in the ratings, but one horse stands a notch above — and the morning-line second choice could be the pace pressure that shapes the race.

win5Kj Dashin GirlML 5/2

Kj Dashin Girl tops the TrackWiz ratings for this maiden field at 87.81, tied for the highest single-race figure on today's card, and gets the call from trainer Adalberto Miranda with Eddi Emanuel Martinez in the irons. All of her rivals in this maiden field are winless, but her rating edge is the widest gap between first and second on the board today, which gives us confidence. The 5/2 morning line is a fair price, and she's the clear top selection.

place1Mucho TrafficML 2/1

Mucho Traffic checks in at 84.99 — just behind the top pick — and carries a 20% career win rate, which stands out as exceptional in a field where most horses have no wins on record. Trainer Martin Trejo gives the mount to Ubaldo Luna, and the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 tells you the market sees this as a two-horse race at the top. He's the logical place horse and a must-include in exactas.

show10Mda Five Bar RocketML 8/1

Mda Five Bar Rocket rates at 65.44, a solid step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the maiden pack, and offers legitimate value at 8/1 on the morning line with trainer Fidencio L. Jimenez. Jockey Flavio Garcia gets the call, and while the win probability is lower, Rocket grades as the third-best horse in this race by a comfortable margin. At that price, she's a smart trifecta piece and a sneaky show play.

Race 6

12:40 AM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

A nine-horse allowance at 330 yards features three horses clustered within a point of each other at the top of the ratings — but one of them comes at a price that stands out as the best value on today's card.

win8Leaving CoyameML 3/1

Leaving Coyame tops this allowance field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and carries a 25% career win rate, giving trainer Luis R. Martinez, Jr. a credible shot at the winner's circle. Eddi Emanuel Martinez has the call, and the morning line of 3/1 puts real money behind this runner at a price that still represents fair value. In a field where no one dominates on raw numbers, this rating edge — combined with a proven win percentage — makes Leaving Coyame the clear top choice.

place6UsxpressML 5/1

Usxpress comes in at a 79.25 rating and a 25% career win rate, and the 5/1 morning line makes this one of the better value plays on the board in this race. Trainer Larry D. Keith has Yaidel Rodriguez in the irons, and the horse rates closely enough to the winner's profile that slotting her in the place spot feels very comfortable. A solid underneath play in exactas and a key trifecta component.

show2Paint Me OnisML 2/1

Paint Me Onis owns a 79.09 rating — nearly identical to Usxpress — and brings the field-best 37% career win rate to the table, which is a meaningful angle. Trainer Joseph D. Manucy uses Bobby Ransom, and the 2/1 morning line says the market loves this horse despite our model ranking her third. The career win percentage is hard to ignore, and she's a necessary inclusion in all trifecta tickets even behind our top selections.

Race 7

1:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

The finale stretches out to 870 yards — the longest race on tonight's card — and the distance shift adds intrigue to a maiden claiming field where endurance and late kick could matter as much as early speed.

win2Poppin OffML 3/1

Poppin Off leads all runners in Race 7 with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and draws a morning line of 3/1 that positions this runner as a fair-priced top selection. Trainer Jose U. Lopez puts Noe Castaneda up, and over the extended 870-yard trip, a horse with this kind of rating edge in a maiden field is the type to take the lead and never look back. This is our top selection to take the finale.

place1Wire Me to FlyML 2/1

Wire Me to Fly rates at 81.15 — second best in the field — and is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, signaling that trainer Trey Ellis and jockey Bobby Ransom are confident this horse belongs near the top. The rating trails Poppin Off, but the gap is close enough that a strong trip could easily result in a photo for the win. A must-use in exactas and the horse most likely to keep pace with our top selection over the longer route.

show8Diane to Be ImperialML 4/1

Diane to Be Imperial brings a 61.09 rating and a 4/1 morning line that makes her a legitimate contender for board money in this maiden field. Trainer Salvador G. Flores and jockey Jose Elias Villarreal give this runner a competent team, and at the 870-yard distance — where stamina plays a bigger role than in the sprints earlier on the card — a horse that rates clearly third can pick up tiring rivals down the lane. A worthy show play and a trifecta anchor to close out the card.

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Bottom line: it's a clean, fast-track day at Evangeline with legitimate plays in every race. Pinch That Tail is our top free-card selection, and Sheza Fast Piloto is the marquee name to know in the premium races. Three free best bets are live right now — and subscribers can access the full seven-race breakdown, exotic tickets, and pace projections at any time. Not a member yet? Check out our plans at TrackWiz/pricing and get in before the first post.

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