Daily Picks

Evangeline Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

Friday, July 17, 20269 racesEvangeline

It's a hot Louisiana Friday at Evangeline Downs — 91 degrees, partly cloudy, and nine races on the board to keep things interesting from first post to finale. The kind of afternoon where a cold drink and a good pace read can go a long way.

Today's card is a nice mix of conditions: maiden claimers, straight claiming races, a pair of maiden special weights, and two allowance-level spots that are the clear class of the day. Surface variety is in play too — the card opens and closes with turf, sandwiching a heavy run of dirt races in between. Keep an eye on how that turf is playing early, especially with the heat; a firm, fast turf course could favor horses with tactical speed.

TrackWiz analysis covers all nine races. The first three are free for every reader, and the full premium breakdown takes you deep into Races 4 through 9 — including the allowance mile on turf in Race 7 and a feisty Allowance Optional Claiming sprint in Race 8.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf with a full field of first-timers and winless horses — three contenders cluster at the top of the TrackWiz ratings and figure to sort things out in the stretch.

win5Struck OutML 7/2

Struck Out draws the morning-line respect at 7/2 and backs it up with our top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35. Jockey Jamison Mudd gets the call for trainer Emile Schwandt, and the overall profile of this horse stands out in a wide-open maiden field. Seven and a half furlongs on turf suits closers who can settle early, and the pace scenario here looks favorable for a horse with this kind of analytical edge.

place6Royal IrishML 5/2

Royal Irish is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, and a TrackWiz rating of 84.67 confirms this horse belongs near the top of the ticket. Trainer Melton Wilson sends Harry Hernandez aboard, a pairing worth watching. With an average speed figure of 52, Royal Irish profiles as a consistent type who could easily find the board in a wide-open turf maiden.

show7SyntagmaML 3/1

Syntagma opens at 3/1 on the morning line and posts a solid 81.10 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field and plenty good enough to land a piece. Trainer Keith G. Bourgeois hands the reins to Colby J. Hernandez, and the average speed figure of 53 gives Syntagma a slight edge in raw numbers over several rivals. In a race this open, Syntagma is a logical exotics anchor and show play.

Race 2

10:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The favorite market is split between two legitimate contenders, but the top-rated horse in this five-furlong dirt claimer carries a big ratings edge and looks like the play to beat.

win6E Z WordsML 5/2

E Z Words tops the TrackWiz ratings board at 87.81 — a meaningful margin over the field — and opens at a fair 5/2 morning line. The 16% career win rate is solid for a claiming runner, and Isaac Castillo gets the mount for trainer Cesar Govea. An average speed figure of 54 matches the fastest in the race, and five furlongs on dirt is a sharp, straight test that should suit a horse with this profile.

place3Jamesy's EmpireML 9/5

Jamesy's Empire is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and shows a 72.01 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. Trainer Brett A. Brinkman sends Carlos Perez to the irons, and an 18% career win rate is among the better records in this field. The pace scenario over five furlongs could set up a speed duel that Jamesy's Empire is equipped to handle or exploit depending on post position breaks.

show7Joseph HML 9/2

Joseph H opens at 9/2 and posts a 60.63 TrackWiz rating — a step below the top two but comfortably clear of the rest. Trainer Russell Giangrosso pairs with Jamison Mudd, and while a 6% career win rate isn't flashy, the average speed figure of 54 keeps this horse competitive on raw numbers. At 9/2, there's enough price to make Joseph H worth including in exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 3

11:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A legitimate standout emerges in this six-furlong dirt claimer — the top two morning-line choices both post strong ratings, but one has a measurable edge that makes this feel like a two-horse race with a clear pecking order.

win4Wizard of YesterML 8/5

Wizard of Yester is our top-rated horse at 89.12 — the highest TrackWiz score in this race by a comfortable margin — and opens at 8/5 on the morning line. A 14% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 (best in the field) make a compelling case for this one to lead the way. Trainer Edith A. Mojica puts Isaac Castillo aboard, a strong combination, and six furlongs on dirt should suit a horse who grades out this well on speed.

place6Midnight MischiefML 9/5

Midnight Mischief opens at 9/5 and carries a 74.55 TrackWiz rating, second only to Wizard of Yester. A 14% career win rate matches the top pick, and Harry Hernandez gets the call for trainer Joe O. Duhon. With an average speed of 54, Midnight Mischief profiles as a strong runner-up type who could make this a genuine pace duel up front — and if the pace gets hot, this one may benefit from a stalking trip.

show1Express LineML 4/1

Express Line draws post one and opens at 4/1 with a 54.20 TrackWiz rating — third in the field. Trainer Dane Noel teams with Jamison Mudd, and a 6% career win rate suggests this is a horse that hits the board more than wins. At 4/1 for show, Express Line is a low-risk exotic play who could benefit if the two top choices set a burning pace and tire in the lane.

The opening trio gives us a solid cross-section of today's card. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf over seven and a half furlongs — a distance that rewards closers who can sustain a run, and our top pick Struck Out (7/2 morning line) profiles well in that role. Race 2 flips us to the dirt for a five-furlong sprint, where E Z Words lands at 5/2 and carries one of the stronger TrackWiz ratings on the card at 87.81 — that kind of number in a claiming sprint is worth paying attention to. Race 3 brings us our most confident free selection: Wizard of Yester at 8/5 is the short-priced morning line favorite in a six-furlong dirt claimer, and a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 backs that confidence up.

A thread connecting all three: the heat and a likely fast dirt track could put a premium on early speed and clean trips. Horses that can settle near the front without burning up in the first quarter will have an edge this afternoon. Watch the pace scenarios in Races 2 and 3 especially — if the early fractions get honest, horses with a late kick have a shot to close ground.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

First-time starters dominate this maiden special weight on the dirt, making it one of the trickier puzzles on the card — the morning line spreads the love across four legitimate contenders and our ratings point to a close finish at the top.

win1Copper KeyML 2/1

Copper Key opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and leads the TrackWiz ratings in this race at 58.33. Trainer Gary M. Scherer puts Colby J. Hernandez on board — a confident booking for a debut runner. In a field of first-timers, Copper Key's top rating and favorable morning-line respect give this horse the edge as the most likely winner when the gate opens at five furlongs.

place3Bar CarML 3/1

Bar Car draws the three-hole and opens at 3/1, posting a 56.67 TrackWiz rating that puts this horse right in the mix. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is well-regarded and sends Isaac Castillo to ride — a jockey-trainer combo that knows how to get horses ready on debut day. The morning-line price implies real respect from the conditions makers, and Bar Car looks like a solid place ticket in an uncertain maiden field.

show7Excusemelady'sML 12/1

Excusemelady's opens at a tempting 12/1 on the morning line despite posting a 56.15 TrackWiz rating that's nearly identical to the second pick. What separates this one from the board favorites is the available speed figure on file — an average of 54, the only non-debuting type in the top three picks here with a measurable workout or prior line. Trainer Ronnie Averett with Kelvin Arana up is a combination worth flagging as a live longshot in trifectas at this price.

Race 5

12:18 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The biggest field on the card — twelve horses going a mile on dirt — and the pace figures to get complicated early, which opens the door for a closer to swoop late and steal the day.

win2Top Notch ProtocolML 3/1

Top Notch Protocol is a standout at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 87.08 score and opens at a fair 3/1 morning line. An 11% career win rate in a field full of horses hovering near single digits or below is quietly one of the better records in the race. Trainer Patrick Devereux, Jr. books Colby J. Hernandez, and the average speed figure of 52 is competitive in a field where most rivals check in at the same mark or below. At a mile, the pace scenario matters — and this horse profiles as one built to run them all down.

place6WitchologyML 9/2

Witchology opens at 9/2 and checks in with a 72.28 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Trainer Scott Gelner sends Elio J. Barrera to the irons, and while a 4% career win rate might look modest, the 72-plus rating suggests this horse runs better than the record shows. Witchology figures to find a comfortable trip stalking early pace in this twelve-horse field and could be sitting on a big effort.

show3Senor SmokeML 5/1

Senor Smoke opens at 5/1 and posts a 70.44 TrackWiz rating, rounding out a competitive top three. Trainer Eduardo Ramirez puts Thomas L. Pompell up, and an 8% career win rate is workmanlike. The average speed of 52 keeps Senor Smoke pace-honest in this field, and at 5/1, there's value in including this one in exactas and trifectas as a closer who knows how to finish.

Race 6

12:46 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Another maiden special weight sprint on the dirt, this one a bit tighter at the top of the ratings — the morning-line favorite is clear but the gaps are small enough that a few others could easily steal the show.

win6G's SoxyML 2/1

G's Soxy is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and leads all runners with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Patricia G. West sends Isaac Castillo aboard, and Castillo has been busy on this card — a sign the connections are confident. In a maiden field of true first-timers where speed figures are largely unavailable, the ratings edge and morning-line confidence make G's Soxy the most defensible win play.

place2Visions of WarML 7/2

Visions of War opens at 7/2 and posts a 55.83 TrackWiz rating, just off the top score. Trainer Chasey Deville Pomier puts Javier Antonio Hernandez on board, a jockey who appears multiple times on this card — suggesting live mounts. With no prior speed figures in the field to separate horses on raw numbers, Visions of War's ratings profile and morning-line price make this a strong place ticket at a slight overlay.

show5Copy ThisML 4/1

Copy This opens at 4/1 and posts a 55.00 TrackWiz rating — right in the thick of the top cluster. Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who also runs Bar Car in Race 4, books Jansen Melancon for this one, a quality jockey booking for a debut runner. The fact that three horses in this race are separated by just over three points in TrackWiz ratings suggests the show spot is genuinely up for grabs, and Copy This at 4/1 offers solid exotic value.

Race 7

1:13 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

This one-mile allowance on the turf has a clear standout on paper — a horse with a dominant TrackWiz rating and a career win rate that dwarfs the field — but the 5/2 morning line means the market already knows about it.

win5WeekendsandwhiskeyML 5/2

Weekendsandwhiskey is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a 87.81 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 28% career win rate — easily the best in the race and nearly double that of most rivals. Trainer Scott Gelner puts Elio J. Barrera up, and the average speed figure of 52 is consistent with what the rest of the field shows. At 5/2 in an allowance on the turf, this is a horse whose profile demands respect — the kind of horse you make your anchor in multi-leg wagers.

place2Fake SmartML 6/1

Fake Smart opens at 6/1 and checks in with a 68.68 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. The 11% career win rate is modest but the average speed of 54 is the best posted number in this race — a small but meaningful edge in a one-mile turf affair where late speed matters. Trainer Ronnie P. Ward sends Juan P. Vargas to the irons, and at 6/1, there's real value in backing Fake Smart to land second.

show8GunsML 12/1

Guns opens at a generous 12/1 morning line but carries a 65.78 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — which is out of line with the double-digit odds. Trainer Allen Landry books Casey Fusilier, and a 14% career win rate is quietly competitive for this level. The average speed of 53 is solid, and at 12/1, Guns is a live longshot show play and exotic inclusion who could easily swipe third if the top two match up evenly in the stretch.

Race 8

1:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint at six furlongs on dirt — a few runners here show unbeaten records, but the TrackWiz ratings tell a more nuanced story and point to a horse who hasn't lost his edge despite the company.

win7Double DealsML 4/1

Double Deals tops our ratings at 85.62 — a meaningful margin over the field — and opens at 4/1 with Carlos Perez in the irons for trainer Juan A. Larrosa. A 14% career win rate is respectable in allowance optional claiming company, and the average speed figure of 55 ties for the highest in the field. At 4/1, Double Deals represents genuine value against a morning line that seems to underestimate this horse's overall profile.

place6Dynamite TonightML 5/2

Dynamite Tonight opens at 5/2 and posts a 62.71 TrackWiz rating, second in the field. Trainer Samuel Breaux sends Harry Hernandez to ride, and a 16% career win rate gives this horse legitimate credibility at this level. The average speed of 55 matches the class of the field, and Dynamite Tonight's morning-line favoritism suggests the conditioners see a horse primed to run a big race — making the place ticket here an attractive pairing with our top pick.

show3Maximus AmarML 3/1

Maximus Amar opens at 3/1 with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and a 100% career win rate — though that figure almost certainly reflects a very small sample. Trainer Ricky Courville sends Emanuel Nieves to ride, and the average speed of 55 is as fast as anyone in this field. The unbeaten record and morning-line price suggest this one is meant to fire, making the show spot a reasonable hedge while the top two sort out the win.

Race 9

2:07 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer at six furlongs on dirt to close the card — one horse towers over the field in the ratings and opens as a commanding morning-line favorite, setting up a question of who grabs the other two spots.

win1Faye L.ML 2/1

Faye L. is the most dominant single-horse edge on the entire card, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and opening at 2/1 morning line. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez hands the mount to Jose Luis Rodriguez, and an average speed figure of 53 gives this horse a real edge on raw numbers over several rivals. In a maiden claimer, this kind of ratings separation — nearly 14 points over the second pick — is hard to fade, and Faye L. is our strongest win selection of the closing sequence.

place8Candy Girl MissML 9/2

Candy Girl Miss opens at 9/2 and posts a 74.75 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field by a clear margin. Trainer Jacoby Landry puts Isaac Castillo in the irons, a sharp jockey booking for a maiden claimer, and the average speed figure of 52 puts this filly in the hunt on raw numbers. At 9/2, Candy Girl Miss looks underpriced for a place ticket and could easily find her way into the exacta box.

show7Custom ValueML 4/1

Custom Value opens at 4/1 and checks in at 64.65 on the TrackWiz scale — third in the field and well ahead of the remaining runners. Trainer Shelton J. Zenon, Sr. puts Junior Inirio up, and an average speed of 52 keeps this horse competitive in a maiden field with modest figures overall. At 4/1 for show, Custom Value gives you legitimate coverage in trifectas at a price that doesn't hurt the ticket.

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Bottom line: Wizard of Yester is the free play we feel best about today, and Weekendsandwhiskey in the allowance turf mile is the premium race we're circling. Nine races, a fast track baking under Louisiana summer heat, and plenty of spots where value can be found if you know where to look. Unlock the full card breakdown — including pace maps, exotic tickets, and every top pick with ratings — with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing.

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