Evangeline Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

Midnight Mischief opens at 9/5 and carries a 74.55 TrackWiz rating, second only to Wizard of Yester. A 14% career win rate matches the top pick, and Harry Hernandez gets the call for trainer Joe O. Duhon. With an average speed of 54, Midnight Mischief profiles as a strong runner-up type who could make this a genuine pace duel up front — and if the pace gets hot, this one may benefit from a stalking trip.

Express Line draws post one and opens at 4/1 with a 54.20 TrackWiz rating — third in the field. Trainer Dane Noel teams with Jamison Mudd, and a 6% career win rate suggests this is a horse that hits the board more than wins. At 4/1 for show, Express Line is a low-risk exotic play who could benefit if the two top choices set a burning pace and tire in the lane.

Bar Car draws the three-hole and opens at 3/1, posting a 56.67 TrackWiz rating that puts this horse right in the mix. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is well-regarded and sends Isaac Castillo to ride — a jockey-trainer combo that knows how to get horses ready on debut day. The morning-line price implies real respect from the conditions makers, and Bar Car looks like a solid place ticket in an uncertain maiden field.

Excusemelady's opens at a tempting 12/1 on the morning line despite posting a 56.15 TrackWiz rating that's nearly identical to the second pick. What separates this one from the board favorites is the available speed figure on file — an average of 54, the only non-debuting type in the top three picks here with a measurable workout or prior line. Trainer Ronnie Averett with Kelvin Arana up is a combination worth flagging as a live longshot in trifectas at this price.

Witchology opens at 9/2 and checks in with a 72.28 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Trainer Scott Gelner sends Elio J. Barrera to the irons, and while a 4% career win rate might look modest, the 72-plus rating suggests this horse runs better than the record shows. Witchology figures to find a comfortable trip stalking early pace in this twelve-horse field and could be sitting on a big effort.

Senor Smoke opens at 5/1 and posts a 70.44 TrackWiz rating, rounding out a competitive top three. Trainer Eduardo Ramirez puts Thomas L. Pompell up, and an 8% career win rate is workmanlike. The average speed of 52 keeps Senor Smoke pace-honest in this field, and at 5/1, there's value in including this one in exactas and trifectas as a closer who knows how to finish.

Visions of War opens at 7/2 and posts a 55.83 TrackWiz rating, just off the top score. Trainer Chasey Deville Pomier puts Javier Antonio Hernandez on board, a jockey who appears multiple times on this card — suggesting live mounts. With no prior speed figures in the field to separate horses on raw numbers, Visions of War's ratings profile and morning-line price make this a strong place ticket at a slight overlay.

Copy This opens at 4/1 and posts a 55.00 TrackWiz rating — right in the thick of the top cluster. Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who also runs Bar Car in Race 4, books Jansen Melancon for this one, a quality jockey booking for a debut runner. The fact that three horses in this race are separated by just over three points in TrackWiz ratings suggests the show spot is genuinely up for grabs, and Copy This at 4/1 offers solid exotic value.

Fake Smart opens at 6/1 and checks in with a 68.68 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. The 11% career win rate is modest but the average speed of 54 is the best posted number in this race — a small but meaningful edge in a one-mile turf affair where late speed matters. Trainer Ronnie P. Ward sends Juan P. Vargas to the irons, and at 6/1, there's real value in backing Fake Smart to land second.

Guns opens at a generous 12/1 morning line but carries a 65.78 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — which is out of line with the double-digit odds. Trainer Allen Landry books Casey Fusilier, and a 14% career win rate is quietly competitive for this level. The average speed of 53 is solid, and at 12/1, Guns is a live longshot show play and exotic inclusion who could easily swipe third if the top two match up evenly in the stretch.

Dynamite Tonight opens at 5/2 and posts a 62.71 TrackWiz rating, second in the field. Trainer Samuel Breaux sends Harry Hernandez to ride, and a 16% career win rate gives this horse legitimate credibility at this level. The average speed of 55 matches the class of the field, and Dynamite Tonight's morning-line favoritism suggests the conditioners see a horse primed to run a big race — making the place ticket here an attractive pairing with our top pick.

Maximus Amar opens at 3/1 with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and a 100% career win rate — though that figure almost certainly reflects a very small sample. Trainer Ricky Courville sends Emanuel Nieves to ride, and the average speed of 55 is as fast as anyone in this field. The unbeaten record and morning-line price suggest this one is meant to fire, making the show spot a reasonable hedge while the top two sort out the win.

Candy Girl Miss opens at 9/2 and posts a 74.75 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field by a clear margin. Trainer Jacoby Landry puts Isaac Castillo in the irons, a sharp jockey booking for a maiden claimer, and the average speed figure of 52 puts this filly in the hunt on raw numbers. At 9/2, Candy Girl Miss looks underpriced for a place ticket and could easily find her way into the exacta box.

Custom Value opens at 4/1 and checks in at 64.65 on the TrackWiz scale — third in the field and well ahead of the remaining runners. Trainer Shelton J. Zenon, Sr. puts Junior Inirio up, and an average speed of 52 keeps this horse competitive in a maiden field with modest figures overall. At 4/1 for show, Custom Value gives you legitimate coverage in trifectas at a price that doesn't hurt the ticket.