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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

July 16, 20268 racesAll Evangeline picks

This card ran on July 16, 2026.

Best bets at Evangeline, July 16, 2026

Race 17Outtasight SeesterML 6/16:15 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Evangeline: our top pick won 13 of 56 races (23%) and finished in the money in 36.

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It's a scorching Thursday at Evangeline Downs — partly cloudy skies with temps sitting at 91°F. That kind of heat in South Louisiana can play tricks on horses that haven't been asked to run in it, and it's worth keeping an eye on how quickly turf courses firm up under these conditions as the afternoon wears on.

We've got a full eight-race card on tap, splitting evenly between dirt sprints, route races, and a couple of turf routes that should draw some interesting fields. The card spans maiden claimers all the way up to an Allowance Optional Claiming, so there's something for every kind of bettor — whether you're grinding for value on the bottom end or hunting a prime spot for a sharp ticket.

Our TrackWiz ratings flagged several horses worth tracking today, with a pair of top picks cracking the 88-point mark — always a number we take seriously. Three races are available free to all readers, with the remaining five reserved for subscribers.

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Race 1

6:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf sprinting five furlongs — TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top three from the rest of the field, but with zero career wins across the board, anything can happen first time on the grass.

win7Outtasight SeesterML 6/1

Outtasight Seester tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 in a field where that number stands out like a beacon. She posts an average speed figure of 54, matching the field's best, and trainer Justin Jeansonne sends her out at a morning line of 6/1 — a price that feels generous given the rating edge. In a maiden turf sprint where pace can get chaotic, a horse with this kind of composite score has every right to be the one to beat.

place4Paradise RidgeML 3/1

Paradise Ridge checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 78.27 — second-best in the field — and also logs an average speed figure of 54. The 3/1 morning line suggests the market already respects this one, and trainer Richard L. Mocklin, Jr. has her in the right spot for a hit-the-board effort. She's a natural fit underneath Outtasight Seester in exacta and trifecta tickets.

show3Khozy's OperettaML 5/1

Khozy's Operetta (73.96 rating) rounds out our top three and gives the trifecta a legitimate third leg at 5/1. Trainer Eric Ramaekers keeps her competitive in a field of maidens with no prior wins, and her speed average of 53 is solid without being flashy. If the pace gets hot up front and the top two hit traffic, Khozy's Operetta has the profile to sneak into the frame.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Key Man dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this five-furlong dirt claimer, but Hold My Hat and Bello give him enough company to make the exotics interesting — pace figures to be contested early.

win1Key ManML 2/1

Key Man leads every meaningful category here: an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, an average speed figure of 55, and a 16% career win rate that speaks to consistent competency. Trainer Allen Landry puts him in with Casey Fusilier aboard at a morning line of 2/1 — short, but backed by the data. In a five-furlong dirt sprint where early speed is premium, Key Man's figures project him clear of this group.

place2Hold My HatML 9/2

Hold My Hat carries a 77.07 rating and a 7% career win rate, but it's the 9/2 morning line that makes this horse interesting as a place play — he's priced like a possible upset rather than a lock. Timothy Thornton gets the call for trainer Carrol Castille, and his average speed of 54 keeps him in range of the top horse if Key Man runs into trouble. He's the logical exacta play underneath.

show3BelloML 6/1

Bello at 6/1 is the show value in this spot, checking in with a 66.08 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate that's respectable for this level. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez sends him out with Elio J. Barrera up, and at a price, Bello is worth including in the trifecta as the third distinct tier of ability in this short field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free races give you a solid foundation to work with. We open on the turf with Outtasight Seester in Race 1 — a 6/1 morning line shot in the maiden claiming ranks who profiles well at five furlongs on the grass. Then Race 2 brings Key Man, one of our two top-rated horses on the card at 88.54, back to the dirt in a five-furlong sprint where he looks like the one to beat at 2/1. Race 3 stretches things out to seven furlongs with Zip Around showing strong enough numbers to make the 4/1 price feel workable.

The early pace scenario across these first three races sets up interestingly — the short turf opener should be tactical, but don't be surprised if the dirt races favor speed given how firm and quick Evangeline's main track can play in summer heat. Keep those dynamics in mind as you build out any vertical tickets early in the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:09 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Zip Around and All Country emerge as the class of a wide-open seven-furlong dirt claiming field — the distance stretches the pace scenario and opens the door for closers to get involved late.

win8Zip AroundML 4/1

Zip Around carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and pairs that with a 16% career win rate — the best win percentage among the top contenders. Casey Fusilier gets the ride for trainer Joe O. Duhon at a morning line of 4/1, which represents solid value given the rating. Seven furlongs on dirt suits a horse with sustained speed, and Zip Around's numbers project him as the one to run down.

place11All CountryML 5/2

All Country posts an 81.53 TrackWiz rating and goes postward at a morning line of just 5/2, suggesting the market sees this as a two-horse race at the top. Trainer Henry West, Jr. teams with Isaac Castillo, and an average speed of 54 keeps All Country in striking distance around every turn. The 3% career win rate is low, but in a one-mile claiming spot, the rating says he hits the board.

show4Native RequiteML 6/1

Native Requite at 6/1 is the show play in this field with a 65.81 TrackWiz rating and Juan P. Vargas in the irons for trainer Ronnie P. Ward. The 3% career win rate is modest, but at this price and distance, Native Requite fits comfortably as a trifecta anchor — especially if the top two finish ahead of him as projected.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 4

7:36 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse turf mile claimer where Coboch stands out as a TrackWiz value play at 10/1 despite owning the field's top rating — the morning line seriously underestimates his chances.

win12CobochML 10/1

Coboch is the horse to beat here, and that 10/1 morning line is a genuine gift. He tops the field with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with a remarkable 50% career win rate — by far the best win percentage in this field. Trainer Jonathan Wong sends him out with Isaac Castillo, and an average speed of 54 on a turf mile is more than enough to compete at this level. When the ratings and the win rate point to the same horse, you take notice.

place9Highland CreekML 3/1

Highland Creek checks in with a 63.61 rating and a 19% career win rate, putting him squarely in the picture as the morning-line second choice at 3/1. Trainer Allen Landry — who also has a strong presence on this card — sends out Highland Creek with Jansen Melancon, and the average speed of 53 gives him a credible chance to hit the board in a wide-open field. He's the right kind of pace-friendly type at a mile on the turf.

show6HegsML 2/1

Hegs enters as the 2/1 morning-line favorite despite ranking third in our TrackWiz analysis at 60.42. The 20% career win rate is solid and trainer Brett A. Brinkman keeps him eligible in the frame, but the price makes him a show play at best — the market may be slightly overreacting to his morning line status. Use him underneath in trifectas but don't pay him full ticket-top price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 5

8:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Runforjustice dominates the TrackWiz numbers in a one-mile dirt claimer, but Get Them Justin and Order Up lurk as legitimate threats and the pace scenario at a mile could favor closers.

win7RunforjusticeML 3/1

Runforjustice is the standout in this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — nearly 20 points clear of Get Them Justin — and a 25% career win rate that proves this horse converts when the form lines up. Julio Ramirez, Jr. gets the mount for trainer Chasey Deville Pomier at a very fair 3/1 morning line. One mile on dirt is a distance that rewards horses who can sustain effort, and the rating here is backed by enough wins to trust it.

place3Order UpML 5/1

Order Up brings a 69.44 TrackWiz rating and the field's top average speed figure at 55 — that combination at 5/1 is excellent place value. Trainer Allen Landry saddles him with Jansen Melancon, a strong jockey-trainer combination on today's card. With a 15% career win rate and speed to push the pace or sit just off it, Order Up is the most dangerous horse to Runforjustice.

show9Get Them JustinML 5/2

Get Them Justin slots in at 67.77 on the TrackWiz scale and goes at 5/2 morning line, making him a legitimate ticket piece even at a price that doesn't scream value. Thomas L. Pompell rides for trainer Kearney Segura, and a 14% career win rate at a mile suggests he's experienced at the distance. He's the logical third wheel in trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Two horses separate themselves in this maiden special weight mile on the turf — Mae's Majesty tops the TrackWiz ratings while Restless Mind comes in as the morning-line favorite, setting up a compelling exacta battle in a field of firsters.

win6Mae's MajestyML 4/1

Mae's Majesty leads the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating despite carrying a morning line of 4/1 — that's a classic value overlay in a maiden turf field. Trainer Antonio Alberto sends her out with Jansen Melancon, who's been a busy and productive presence throughout this card. An average speed of 52 is par for the course in a maiden turf mile, and when the ratings say one thing and the odds say another, our analysis says trust the numbers.

place2Restless MindML 9/5

Restless Mind is the 9/5 morning-line favorite with an 81.28 TrackWiz rating to justify the market confidence. Harry Hernandez rides for trainer Shane Wilson, and the average speed of 53 gives her an edge over most of the field. She's the kind of horse you'll see at the front of the board in exactas — pair her with Mae's Majesty both ways and you've got the key ticket.

show8PrytaniaML 4/1

Prytania at 4/1 rates third in our analysis at 69.52 and gives the trifecta a solid anchor — she's a real horse at a real price in a wide-open maiden field. Trainer Andy L. Rogers keeps her competitive, and even with an average speed of 51 that's slightly below the top two, the gap in class from the third finisher on down makes Prytania a comfortable show selection.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

8:57 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are separated by just over two points at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance optional claiming sprint — Little Miss Curlin's dominant win rate sets her apart, but Gangster Flash and Mo Echos could make this a real race.

win1Little Miss CurlinML 2/1

Little Miss Curlin leads the field with an 80.15 TrackWiz rating and a stunning 71% career win rate — she converts. Colby J. Hernandez rides for trainer Patrick Devereux, Jr. at a 2/1 morning line that reflects her market favoritism, and an average speed of 55 is among the field's best. In an allowance optional claiming spot at 5.5 furlongs, a horse who wins at this rate commands serious respect as the top selection.

place2Gangster FlashML 8/1

Gangster Flash comes in at 79.79 — just a hair off Little Miss Curlin — and posts an even more eye-popping 75% career win rate. Trainer Alan Klanfer sends him out with Jansen Melancon at 8/1, which looks like genuine overlay territory given those credentials. The average speed of 55 matches the favorite's, and if Gangster Flash finds a good trip in the 5.5-furlong sprint, he could be the upset special.

show6Mo EchosML 5/1

Mo Echos rounds out the top three with a 78.06 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate, giving Isaac Castillo a live mount for trainer Chadwick J. Mouton at 5/1. The average speed figure of 55 keeps her right in the mix with the top two, and in a race with potential pace pressure from multiple horses, a closer profile could be exactly what the show spot needs.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

9:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Like This is a clear TrackWiz standout in this six-furlong dirt claimer — the question isn't whether she's the best horse, it's whether the 2/1 price gives you enough to work with in the exotics.

win2Like ThisML 2/1

Like This tops the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest mark on the entire card today — and backs it up with a 23% career win rate and an average speed of 55. Trainer Allen Landry, who has been one of the most prominent names on this card, sends her out with Jansen Melancon in a spot that looks tailor-made for a dominant effort. At 2/1, you're not getting rich, but this is a horse worth anchoring your exotics around.

place3HawijaML 9/2

Hawija checks in at 69.78 on the TrackWiz scale and pairs that with a strong 27% career win rate — the best win percentage among the non-favorite contenders. Javier Antonio Hernandez rides for trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr. at a morning line of 9/2, which represents solid value for a place play. An average speed of 55 puts her right in step with Like This, and if the pace gets contested, Hawija's experience gives her a real shot at the exacta slot.

show6CharcoML 6/1

Charco at 6/1 is the show value in this race with a 66.18 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate that confirms he's no stranger to the winner's circle. Timothy Thornton gets the call for trainer Sturges J. Ducoing, and an average speed of 55 means Charco won't be losing ground on raw ability. He's the right price for a third-hole play in the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Key Man and Like This are the two horses we'd build around today — both sitting at the top of our ratings and both at prices that make sense. Outtasight Seester at 6/1 in the opener is a sneaky value play to kick things off. For the full-card picture — pace projections, exotic plays, and every premium pick — subscribers have everything they need waiting for them. Good luck out there, and stay hydrated almost as much as your horses.

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