Daily Picks

Evangeline Picks & Predictions — June 18, 2026

Thursday, June 18, 20268 racesEvangeline

It's a warm Thursday afternoon at Evangeline Downs — partly cloudy skies and 88°F on the thermometer, which means the Louisiana heat is doing what it does in June. Eight races are on the card today, mixing claimers, maiden events, allowance company, and a pair of turf routes that could produce some fireworks if the going stays firm.

TrackWiz has ratings on every horse in every race, and today's card has a little something for everyone. The early races feature some short-priced favorites worth trusting, but the real intrigue kicks in around the middle of the card where a couple of live longshots and a tricky pace scenario on the turf could reward the patient handicapper.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, with full analysis on the remaining five available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming sprint at 5 furlongs with a clear top-rated trio separating themselves from the rest of the field — but the morning line favorite isn't the TrackWiz top choice.

win8Gin and TonicML 3/1

Gin and Tonic earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 and comes in with an eye-catching 33% career win rate — by far the best among any contender in this spot. Jansen Melancon gets the call, and he's one of the sharper riders in the Evangeline jock colony. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that offers solid value relative to his profile, and trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr. has a horse that clearly knows how to win. In a 5-furlong dirt sprint where early speed can be decisive, expect Gin and Tonic to be forwardly placed and hard to catch.

place10SayyoulovemebabyML 2/1

Sayyoulovemebaby draws the morning line favoritism at 2/1 and backs it up with a solid 80.28 TrackWiz rating. A 16% career win rate is respectable at this level, and Edward Santiago gives the horse a competent pilot. The horse matches Kara Flash on average speed figures at 54, making her a logical place target even if she can't quite get past Gin and Tonic on our ratings.

show3Kara FlashML 6/1

Kara Flash is the third horse in the ratings cluster with a 79.48 mark and shares that avg speed figure of 54 with the top two in our picks. The 6/1 morning line represents a touch of value if she hits the board — trainer Juan A. Larrosa keeps her competitive, and Carlos Perez is a capable handler. She's the kind of live longshot-adjacent horse you want in your exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 2

10:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The pace scenario here is worth watching — multiple horses with legitimate speed ratings figure to press each other, setting up a potential closer's paradise over the 7-furlong dirt route.

win6Hard LineML 2/1

Hard Line tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.15 and gets Jansen Melancon back in the irons — the same rider who we're backing in Race 1. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, but the rating gap between Hard Line and the rest of the field is meaningful. A 14% career win rate is modest, but trainer Keith G. Bourgeois knows this track well, and at 7 furlongs Hard Line has enough ground to settle and unwind a finish.

place4Deal Me TripsML 6/1

Deal Me Trips is an intriguing place target at 6/1 on the morning line — the TrackWiz model has him at 82.71, just a few ticks behind Hard Line. The 22% career win rate is the best in the field and suggests a horse that consistently fires when conditions align. Isaac Castillo gets the mount for trainer Randy Shamsie, Sr., and the 7-furlong distance suits a horse with that kind of career win efficiency.

show5CoattailsML 9/5

Coattails is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and checks in with a 78.78 TrackWiz rating, which puts her just behind our top two but ahead of everyone else. Casey Fusilier is a live rider, and trainer Paul Duhon is no stranger to winning at Evangeline. The show slot here is about hedging against a scenario where Coattails' public support is justified — she's a board horse almost regardless of how the pace develops.

Race 3

11:09 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse maiden special weight going 7 furlongs on dirt — wide-open with all zeros in the win column, so we're leaning entirely on TrackWiz ratings and speed figures to separate the contenders.

win9More Than CuteML 12/1

More Than Cute is our top-rated horse in the race at 73.96 despite going off at 12/1 on the morning line — that gap between public perception and our model is exactly the kind of edge we look for. The horse posts an average speed figure of 54, matching the top tier in this field. Trainer Jerry Eugene Tillis, Jr. puts Alexis X. Batista up, and at a maiden special weight level in Louisiana, this is a horse that has shown enough in its past efforts to score at a price. The value case here is strong.

place1ZampinoML 7/2

Zampino is the morning line second choice at 7/2 and carries a 70.67 TrackWiz rating to go with a 54 average speed figure — identical to More Than Cute on that metric. Casey Fusilier rides for trainer Paul Duhon, a combination that has been productive at Evangeline. If More Than Cute hits the board, Zampino looks like a natural consolidator for the place slot in exotic wagers.

show5Polar WolfML 10/1

Polar Wolf at 10/1 is worth a spot in your trifecta coverage with a 58.30 TrackWiz rating — the third-best in the field — and a 53 average speed figure. Harry Hernandez gets the mount for trainer Veronica Litfin. In a maiden race this wide open, having a double-digit price in your exotics is smart handicapping, and Polar Wolf's figures are respectable enough to hit the board in a chaotic first-time-starter-heavy field.

The three free races today span the early part of the card and cover a solid range of class levels — from a sprint claiming opener to a seven-furlong maiden special weight that might be the most interesting free race on the board. Gin and Tonic draws our top rating in Race 1 at 87.08, a strong number for a five-furlong dirt sprint, and Hard Line looks like a confident play in Race 2 despite being the morning-line favorite at 2/1. Favorites at Evangeline in dirt claiming company have historically performed well on warm, dry-surface days, and there's nothing in today's forecast to suggest the strip will be anything but fast.

The wildcard is Race 3, where More Than Cute lands at 12/1 on the morning line — but our rating of 73.96 says she deserves a much harder look than that price implies. Maiden special weight fields (first-time starters and lightly raced horses competing for a significant purse) can be volatile, and value like this is exactly where the TrackWiz model tends to find an edge. Don't overlook her.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:36 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The switch to one mile on turf in this Starter Optional Claiming event brings an elite trio of closely-rated horses into focus, with a remarkable career win percentage making one of them very hard to oppose.

win2Roar of SilenceML 3/1

Roar of Silence tops our picks with a 77.64 TrackWiz rating and — the number that jumps off the page — a 42% career win rate, the highest in the field by a significant margin. Trainer Jervon Broussard runs him back here and trusts Jamison Mudd to handle the one-mile turf route. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that simply wins more than he loses over his career, and a horse like that in a field of this quality deserves to be your primary investment.

place4Honest AngusML 2/1

Honest Angus sits at 2/1 on the morning line with a 77.43 TrackWiz rating — essentially a coin flip with Roar of Silence on our model. The 16% career win rate is solid, and Colby J. Hernandez gives him a competent pilot for trainer Samuel Breaux. He's a natural place play underneath our top choice, especially on a turf course where pace scenarios can shuffle the order dramatically.

show7Tuck CheckML 9/2

Tuck Check at 9/2 rounds out our tickets with a 77.12 TrackWiz rating — this is a genuinely close race at the top, with less than a point separating our top three picks. The 25% career win rate for trainer David Terre's horse is respectable, and Isaac Castillo is a capable turf rider. With three horses this closely rated, structuring a trifecta with all three makes a lot of sense.

Race 5

12:03 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5.5-furlong dirt claiming sprint has a horse that stands well above the rest on both ratings and career win percentage — the question is whether the morning line favorite can be caught.

win4Tough Love TorresML 9/5

Tough Love Torres is the standout in this race with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest win-pick rating on the entire card through five races — and a 33% career win rate that matches some of the best horses we've seen today. Harry Hernandez takes the mount for trainer Antonio Alberto, a combination worth respecting. The 9/5 morning line makes this a short price, but the numbers back it up emphatically, and in a 5.5-furlong sprint this horse profiles as an on-pace type who can be tough to run down.

place7Aztec EmpressML 5/2

Aztec Empress checks in at 5/2 on the morning line with a 65.31 TrackWiz rating and posts the best average speed figure in the field at 55 — that's a number worth noticing in a sprint where raw pace matters. Trainer Keith G. Bourgeois has two horses in this race, and Aztec Empress with Juan P. Vargas up looks like the more preferred runner based on our model. She's a natural place target if Tough Love Torres romps.

show3ThisoneisforyouML 8/1

Thisoneisforyou at 8/1 is a price worth including in your exotics with a 60.4 TrackWiz rating — solid enough to hit the board in this field. Timothy Thornton handles the mount for trainer Carrol Castille. A 12% career win rate is modest, but at 8/1 in a seven-horse field, the show price could be quite generous, making Thisoneisforyou a smart trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

12:30 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

An Allowance Optional Claiming field on 7.5 furlongs of turf shapes up as a two-horse race at the top of the ratings, with a pair of closely matched contenders separating themselves from the rest of a ten-horse field.

win2Tortuga CoastML 2/1

Tortuga Coast leads our ratings at 87.91 — the top mark in the entire race — and draws Carlos Perez for trainer Brett A. Brinkman. The 2/1 morning line means the public is already on board, but our model says the line is fair. A 12% career win rate might look modest, but the key here is that 87.91 rating in a turf route where speed figures translate differently than on dirt. The 7.5-furlong turf trip gives this horse room to find the right spot in the running.

place4Clearly My StarML 3/1

Clearly My Star is just a tick behind at 87.08 and draws a 3/1 morning line with Harry Hernandez up for trainer Shane Wilson. The 20% career win rate is one of the better marks in the field and suggests a horse that consistently brings its best effort. This is a legitimate exacta-key situation — both Tortuga Coast and Clearly My Star are so closely rated that either order is possible.

show7Brisa VelozML 4/1

Brisa Veloz at 4/1 earns our show spot with a 70.74 rating and the top average speed figure in the entire field at 56 — that jump in raw pace is notable on a turf course. Jansen Melancon rides for trainer Antonio Alberto, and a 12% career win rate at the allowance level is competitive. If the pace scenario sets up for closers on the turf, Brisa Veloz's raw speed could be the difference.

Race 7

12:57 AM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The allowance sprint at 5.5 furlongs features a fascinating contrast — the top-rated horse goes off at 3/1 while a 7/2 shot carries a 100% career win rate into the gate, which will make for some interesting wagering dynamics.

win3Mo EchosML 3/1

Mo Echos tops our ratings at 87.08 with a 40% career win rate — easily among the better marks on today's full card. Isaac Castillo gets the call for trainer Chadwick J. Mouton, and the 3/1 morning line feels correct for a horse with this combination of rating and win percentage. Mo Echos also posts a 55 average speed figure, tying for the top mark in this race, which is exactly what you want to see in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint where fractions matter.

place2Serious RockML 6/1

Serious Rock at 6/1 is a strong place play with an 80.01 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate — the second-best among our picks in this race. Timothy Thornton rides for trainer Austin Gustafson, and the 55 average speed figure matches Mo Echos at the top of the field. The 6/1 morning line offers real value for a horse this well-rated, making him an attractive part of exactas underneath our top choice.

show8Walknto NeworleansML 5/2

Walknto Neworleans at 5/2 rounds out our picks with a 73.86 rating and an impressive 40% career win rate — matching Mo Echos on that metric. Edward Santiago handles the mount for Benard Chatters, and the 55 average speed figure makes this a genuinely fast trio at the top. The horse is probably underpriced at 5/2, but the win percentage alone justifies keeping him on your ticket.

Race 8

1:24 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full field of maiden claimers going six furlongs on dirt closes out the card — all zeros in the win column, so we're relying heavily on our model to separate the contenders from the pretenders in a twelve-horse field.

win5One Grand SlamML 5/1

One Grand Slam earns the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden claiming field at 84.17 and goes off at a fair 5/1 on the morning line. Kelvin Arana rides for trainer Mike Shamsie, and a 53 average speed figure puts this horse in the middle tier of the field on raw pace — but the rating gap between One Grand Slam and the rest of the field is the real story here. In a race where nobody has won before, having the highest model score by nearly three points is a meaningful edge.

place7Dirty DealML 4/1

Dirty Deal at 4/1 is our place selection with an 81.69 TrackWiz rating — the second-best in the field — and Elio J. Barrera up for trainer Isai V. Gonzalez. The 52 average speed figure is a tick below our top choice, but in a chaotic twelve-horse maiden field, board horses are where the value lies in exotics. Dirty Deal and One Grand Slam form a logical exacta combination with strong ratings backing both.

show6Fruit BasketML 3/1

Fruit Basket is the morning line second choice at 3/1 with a 74.88 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and posts a 54 average speed figure, matching our top pick on that metric. Juan P. Vargas rides for trainer Lee Thomas. The public money is clearly on this one, and while the model doesn't put Fruit Basket on top, the 74.88 rating is more than enough to justify show coverage and trifecta inclusion.

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Today's best bets center on Gin and Tonic and Hard Line in the early going, with More Than Cute as the value play to watch in the MSW. For subscribers, Tough Love Torres in Race 5 is the marquee selection of the afternoon — the numbers there are hard to ignore. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic strategies are all waiting for you — check out TrackWiz Premium and get the complete picture before post time. Good luck out there.

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