Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 10, 2026
It's a beautiful Pacific Northwest afternoon at Emerald Downs — partly cloudy skies, 74°F, and conditions that set the table for honest speed figures on the dirt. Seven races are on the board today, and this card has a little something for everyone: short sprints, a one-miler, maiden action, and a handful of claiming battles where class angles can pay serious dividends.
The dirt strip figures to play fairly today. With no rain in the picture and mild temps, expect the surface to be consistent from wire to wire — which means early speed will be worth tracking closely, especially in the sprint races. Keep an eye on how the first few races unfold; if front-runners are holding on, that's valuable information for the second half of the card.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Mo Grey comes in as a dominant morning-line favorite in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but Shiny Orb's elite career win rate makes this anything but a walkover.
Mo Grey carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.71 — a sizable gap over the next closest rival — and that edge is backed by the highest average speed figure in the race at 56. The 6/5 morning line reflects just how much the market respects this horse, and frankly, it's hard to argue. Jockey Silvio Ruiz Amador gets the call, giving Mo Grey a polished pilot to close out the deal in a sprint.
Shiny Orb is the most interesting horse in this field from a win-rate standpoint — a 25% career win percentage is by far the best among all five starters and speaks to a horse who knows how to finish in front. Trainer Sarah Jennings also saddles Rocksalot in this same race, so she's double-shotgunning the field, which can sometimes signal confidence in a barn's overall form. At 9/2 on the morning line, Shiny Orb offers real value if Mo Grey stumbles.
Fruit Lutes brings a 63.48 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate, which slots in comfortably as the third-best profile in this field. Kevin Krigger is a capable rider and the 9/5 morning line suggests the market sees this horse as a legitimate threat, making it a solid underneath play in exactas and trifectas.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A wide-open maiden claimer going a mile on dirt — nobody in this field has ever won, so we're hunting for the horse showing the most upside on paper.
All About Babes tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claimer at 86.35, and trainer Blaine D. Wright puts up Javier Matias for the trip — a confident jockey booking. The 7/2 morning line is generous for a horse sitting at the top of the class ratings, which sets up potential value if the price holds into post time. The one-mile distance on dirt suits a horse that profiles as a stalker type, and an average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the pace of this field.
Rise Up and Go is the closest rival to our top pick at a 81.81 rating, and at 5/2 on the morning line the crowd is paying attention. The slight edge in average speed figures at 55 — best in the field — suggests this horse could be involved on the front end, which at a mile can set up a strong finish. Kiaman McGregor is the mount, and if there's any pace pressure early, Rise Up and Go could be the one closing the deal.
Honoring Autism rates third in the field at 69.11 and goes as the 3/1 morning-line second choice, which is a bit of a disconnect from the ratings — meaning the crowd may be overrating this horse slightly. That said, a third-place finish here is entirely plausible if the top two get into a speed duel, and trainer Jorge Rosales keeps the horse eligible at this level. Worth including on the bottom of trifectas.
Race 3
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a likely match race between Tiz Grazen and Nation of Faith with Peter Flies lurking as a value threat.
Tiz Grazen posts the field's top rating at 87.08 and comes in at a fair 3/1 morning line — not chalk, not a longshot, just a horse the data strongly supports. The 19% career win rate is solid for a claiming horse at this level, and Adrian Castellanos gets the mount, a jockey who knows how to navigate 5.5-furlong sprints. Trainer Jorge Rosales also saddles Nation of Faith in this race, which suggests the barn is firing on multiple cylinders today.
Nation of Faith is our place pick at 5/2 and rates second in the field at 82.87 — only 4 points behind Tiz Grazen. Talliyah Timentwa rides for trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez, and this horse's 12% career win rate might undersell how competitive it's been. In a sprint like this, if the pace sets up right, Nation of Faith has the profile to grab a piece.
Peter Flies is the show horse we like here, and the 21% career win rate is the best of anyone in this field — a number that jumps out in a claiming race at this level. The 7/2 morning line offers genuine value for a horse that closes at a solid clip, and trainer Charles Essex has this one pointed right. Include Peter Flies underneath in your exotics as a high-floor option.
The first three races are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they give us a solid cross-section of the day's themes. Mo Grey opens the card in Race 1 as the morning-line favorite at 6/5 — our top-rated horse of the day at 89.71 — and the 6-furlong dirt sprint suits a horse with his profile. In Race 2, All About Babes stretches to a mile in maiden claiming company, a distance that can expose significant class and fitness gaps, and our analysis likes her at a workable 7/2 morning line. Then Tiz Grazen rounds out the free tier in Race 3 at 3/1, a fair price for a horse rated 87.08 in a short sprint where pace shape matters enormously.
Across these three free races, the thread connecting our picks is consistency — horses whose recent figures line up well for today's conditions, not just horses who "look good on paper" after one big effort. That distinction is what separates value from noise, and it's the foundation of how TrackWiz builds every card.
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Bottom line: Mo Grey is the marquee play of the day, the free card gives you three strong starting points, and the back half of the card has legitimate value hiding in some overlooked spots. Full-card analysis — including pace projections, exotic tickets, and premium picks — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Check out our subscription options and get the complete breakdown before the first race goes off. Good luck out there.