Daily Picks

Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Sunday, July 5, 202610 racesEmerald Downs

Happy post-holiday Sunday, race fans. Emerald Downs is welcoming us back with a full 10-race card on a gorgeous Pacific Northwest afternoon — clear skies, 73°F, and a dirt track that should be playing fast and honest. After a Fourth of July weekend, the horses are ready and so are we.

Today's card runs the full gamut — a pair of maiden specials, multiple claiming routes, a Starter Allowance mile, and a straight allowance sprinter's showcase in Race 9 that could be the most competitive race on the card. There's something here for every bettor, whether you're playing a single race or building a multi-race ticket through the back half.

TrackWiz has rated the full field across all 10 races. The first three are free for everyone — after that, you'll want to be a subscriber to unlock the complete analysis. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

One horse towers above the field on the TrackWiz ratings in this mile claiming opener, but the morning line suggests the market already knows it — the real question is whether the price holds or compresses further at post.

win4Pistol PowerML 8/5

Pistol Power is the most dominant figure in this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 against a field where nobody else cracks 58. The 8/5 morning line reflects that class edge, and trainer Rigoberto Velasquez is also saddling Hey Sequoia, so the barn clearly feels good about Pistol Power being the stable's main hope. A 29% career win rate is exceptional at the claiming level — nearly one in three starts results in a win — and jockey Blake Nunnally gets the call. Barring a pace-related setback or traffic issue going a mile, this one has to be respected as the standout.

place1Tex HanleyML 3/1

Tex Hanley draws the rail for Kevin Krigger and comes in with a solid 57.68 rating, the second-best in the field and a noticeable step above the rest. The 3/1 morning line offers fair value for the place spot, and a 14% career win rate on the dirt suggests enough consistency to factor. If Pistol Power is as dominant as the figures suggest, Tex Hanley could find a clean trip and hold second without a fight.

show2Hey SequoiaML 10/1

Hey Sequoia is the longshot angle here at 10/1 on the morning line, but trainer Rigoberto Velasquez running two horses in the same race is worth noting — the barn clearly feels this horse is live enough to show up. The 54.15 TrackWiz rating puts Hey Sequoia mid-pack, and Frank T. Alvarado is a capable rider for a horse that could hit the board if the pace sets up favorably. Worth including in trifecta coverage at a price.

Race 2

9:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A legit pace duel shapes up between horses that can roll early over six furlongs of dirt, but the TrackWiz numbers tell a clear story — one runner has a significant class edge despite being largely overlooked on the morning line.

win1Al's Big BoyML 5/1

Al's Big Boy looks like the TrackWiz value play of the early card, carrying an 84.17 rating — the top figure in this field by a comfortable margin — while sitting at 5/1 on the morning line. That kind of rating-to-odds discrepancy is exactly the spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to identify. Lenny A. Seecharan gets the mount for trainer Michael Robert Morris, and the 14% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks. Six furlongs on dirt suits a horse with an above-average average speed, and the pace scenario could set up nicely if he gets a good break from the rail.

place4Jess in TimeML 9/2

Jess in Time brings a 25% career win rate into this spot — the highest win percentage in the field among horses with actual records — and that kind of winning consistency at 9/2 is hard to ignore for place purposes. Kevin Krigger is one of the sharper riders on the Emerald Downs circuit, and trainer Tim McCanna also has Eddiecoyle in the race, suggesting the barn has real confidence in both horses. The 62.4 TrackWiz rating puts Jess in Time solidly in the mix.

show5EddiecoyleML 9/5

Eddiecoyle comes in as the second McCanna runner and draws Karlo Lopez in the irons at 9/5 on the morning line — the public favorite. The 58.67 rating is competitive, and an average speed figure of 56 is tied for best in the field. The show slot is the floor here; if the pace collapses, Eddiecoyle has the tactical speed to be right there at the wire.

Race 3

9:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Pure maiden special weight chaos — eight first-time or lightly experienced runners going five furlongs, all carrying zero career wins, making TrackWiz pre-race ratings and trainer connections the primary handicapping tools.

win3CantlayML 3/1

Cantlay tops the TrackWiz ratings in this wide-open maiden field at 56.67, which is a slim edge but a real one when every runner is winless. Trainer Frank Lucarelli puts Isaias D. Enriquez up, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the public also likes this one. In maiden races like this, the horse with the edge in the ratings model often reflects workout patterns and underlying data that aren't visible in the bare past performances — Cantlay's top figure makes this the most defensible win pick in the field.

place2Knight BeautyML 7/2

Knight Beauty comes in at 55.83, just a hair behind Cantlay, and trainer Howard F. Gibson is double-barreled in this race — also entering Mattie Goincoastal. That barn confidence in Knight Beauty specifically is worth noting, and the 7/2 morning line is fair. Silvio Ruiz Amador picks up the mount and should give this horse a clean trip over five furlongs.

show4MosunML 4/1

Mosun checks in with a 55.0 rating at 4/1, right in the cluster of top contenders with Frank T. Alvarado aboard for trainer Tom Wenzel. In a wide-open maiden sprint, having three horses rated within two points of each other is a recipe for a contentious finish — Mosun has the figures and the rider to land on the board even if the top two separate.

The opener is where we're most confident today. Pistol Power draws an 89.12 TrackWiz rating going a one-mile dirt route in Race 1 — the highest mark on the free portion of the card — and at 8/5 on the morning line, the market agrees this one is a cut above the claiming field. In Race 2, Al's Big Boy shows up at 5/1 on a six-furlong sprint, which is exactly the kind of price we love on a horse our model rates this highly (84.17). Don't let that morning line scare you off.

Race 3 is your classic maiden special weight mystery — Cantlay is our top pick at 3/1, though the 56.67 rating reflects how wide-open maiden fields can be. On a clear, fast-playing day like today, early pace will matter on the five-furlong trip, and Cantlay profiles as a horse who can sit just off the pace and pounce. Keep your expectations measured in maiden sprints, but the value is real at that price.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:27 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The morning line and TrackWiz ratings are telling two very different stories in this maiden claimer — a pair of double-digit odds horses post the two highest figures in the field, setting up a potential upset over the more heavily favored morning line choices.

win8One PhilML 3/1

One Phil is the TrackWiz top figure at 80.28 and goes at 3/1 on the morning line — the best combination of rating and fair odds in the race. Trainer Vince Gibson puts Alex V. Anaya up, and an average speed of 56 is tied for the top mark in the field. For a maiden claimer, an 80-plus rating with a speed edge is a strong hand, and the 3/1 price means the market isn't completely overlooking this horse. The five-furlong sprint distance should play right into the hands of a horse that can put up quick early fractions.

place6Colonel BrockML 8/1

Colonel Brock is the TrackWiz value highlight of the race — an 79.79 rating going off at 8/1 on the morning line, making this one of the more compelling place bets on the card. Heath Lawrence saddles Silvio Ruiz Amador, and that average speed of 56 is elite for this level. The rating gap between Colonel Brock and the lower-rated favorites like Stratojet and Silicon Native is significant, and if the pace scenario opens up, this horse at a generous price could easily hit the board.

show7The Bronx BullML 10/1

The Bronx Bull rounds out the TrackWiz top three in this race with a 73.85 rating at 10/1 on the morning line — another horse the market has underestimated relative to the figures. Trainer Debbie Van Horne puts Talliyah Timentwa in the irons, and the 55 average speed is competitive. The combination of a strong rating and a double-digit morning line makes The Bronx Bull worth stacking into your trifecta — this race could very easily pay well.

Race 5

10:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear top figure sits well above the field in this six-furlong claiming sprint, though the pace scenario bears watching with multiple horses capable of pressing early.

win5Giant ImpactML 9/5

Giant Impact has an 87.76 TrackWiz rating — the runaway top figure in a field where nobody else clears 68 — and trainer Jorge Rosales puts Adrian Castellanos in the saddle. The 9/5 morning line reflects the public's respect for this horse, and despite a 5% career win rate that looks low, the figure-based model sees something here that translates to raw ability. At six furlongs on dirt with a 55 average speed, Giant Impact should have enough tactical ability to stay near the pace and take over.

place4At the CrossML 7/2

At the Cross brings a 67.07 rating and a 9% career win rate into this spot at 7/2 on the morning line, with Pablo E. Castillo aboard for trainer Terri Eaton. The average speed of 55 matches the top horses in the field, and the Eaton-Castillo combination has been active at Emerald Downs throughout the meet. At the Cross profiles as a presser who could sit just off the early pace and pick up the pieces if Giant Impact hits any trouble.

show2Mr. Mount DuttonML 8/1

Mr. Mount Dutton is the value piece in this field — a 65.86 TrackWiz rating at 8/1 on the morning line for trainer Frank Lucarelli with Isaias D. Enriquez up. A 14% career win rate is solid at the claiming level, and the second-best rating in the field at a price of 8/1 is exactly the kind of spot to target in show or trifecta play. If the pace gets hot early, a horse with a 54 average speed could be closing into the picture.

Race 6

11:28 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite looms over a nine-horse maiden special weight field, but a well-rated second horse at a generous morning line price gives the race genuine structure and some exotics interest.

win1Lead the ChargeML 8/5

Lead the Charge is the dominant figure in this nine-horse MSW field, posting an 89.12 TrackWiz rating that essentially matches Pistol Power's mark from Race 1 — and just as dominant here. Blaine D. Wright is a trainer who knows this circuit, and Silvio Ruiz Amador is one of the most capable jockeys on the grounds. The 8/5 morning line is short but warranted given the rating gap — the next horse, Vino Viking, trails by more than 11 points. With an average speed of 56, Lead the Charge has the raw numbers to wire this field going six furlongs.

place4Vino VikingML 7/2

Vino Viking is the clear second figure in this race at 77.67, and the 7/2 morning line offers genuine value for the place spot when you consider the rating gap between this horse and everything else in the field. Frank T. Alvarado rides for Tom Wenzel, and an average speed of 55 suggests Vino Viking can run a respectable race. If Lead the Charge has any stumble coming out of the gate, Vino Viking is positioned to capitalize.

show6Annabelle's AssetML 5/1

Annabelle's Asset checks in at 53.33 for trainer Faustino Patino with Adrian Castellanos up, and the 5/1 morning line makes this a sensible show ticket in a race where the top two figures are significantly separated from the rest. An average speed of 56 — tied with Lead the Charge for the field's best — is a data point worth noting. Patino also runs Silver Ice in this field, suggesting some barn depth, but Annabelle's Asset at 5/1 is the more interesting price.

Race 7

11:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A fascinating pace scenario develops in this seven-horse claiming sprint — multiple horses with similar speed figures and 10% win rates set up a race where the top figure may not necessarily wire the field, and the price on the favorite could be meaningful.

win4Annika's SongML 7/2

Annika's Song holds the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 and is the logical win choice despite going at 7/2 — a fair price given the competition. Trainer Mark Cloutier gives the mount to Silvio Ruiz Amador, who has been busy throughout the card. The 10% career win rate is consistent with the claiming ranks, and an average speed of 55 puts this horse right in the mix pace-wise. The key is whether Annika's Song can get a clean trip in a field where several horses appear to want to be involved early.

place1Cut N CurlML 5/1

Cut N Curl is an interesting place candidate with a 78.09 TrackWiz rating at 5/1 for the Terri Eaton barn with Pablo E. Castillo in the irons. The second-best figure in the race at a price that's longer than the top pick is a classic value overlay for place bettors. A 10% career win rate and a 55 average speed give this horse the raw ability to hit the board consistently, and if the pace duel between the front-runners gets contentious, Cut N Curl could be closing from a stalking position.

show3Kinky MoonML 3/1

Kinky Moon brings a 72.49 rating and sits at 3/1 on the morning line — actually making this the third-rated horse at the third-lowest price, which is a reasonable market assessment. Frank T. Alvarado picks up the mount for Steve C. Fisher, and the 10% win rate is consistent with the field. In a race where Annika's Song and Cut N Curl figure to set the pace, Kinky Moon has the numbers to show up at the wire and is worth including in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 8

12:27 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A full ten-horse starter allowance field at a mile creates one of the most complex pace scenarios of the card — two horses at or near 33-40% career win rates stand out as class markers in what is otherwise a wide-open field.

win9Brother o' BrienML 7/2

Brother o' Brien is the TrackWiz top figure at 86.35, and a 40% career win rate is exceptional — it means four of every ten career starts have resulted in a win, which at any level is elite form. Kevin Krigger rides for trainer Tim McCanna, and the McCanna barn has been active throughout the card tonight. At 7/2 on the morning line, the market respects this horse without making it unplayable. A 54 average speed over a mile should keep Brother o' Brien in contention throughout, and McCanna horses are always live at Emerald Downs.

place5Jullian in ParisML 6/1

Jullian in Paris has the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 75.73 and goes at 6/1 — a legitimate overlay if Brother o' Brien dominates the win pool. Silvio Ruiz Amador picks up the mount for Charles Essex, and an 8% career win rate, while modest, is offset by the strong rating figure. At a mile, this horse with a 54 average speed should stay involved throughout the trip and has the figure to land in the exacta.

show6J. B. BooksML 5/1

J. B. Books rounds out the top three at 75.10 and draws Adrian Castellanos for trainer Jorge Rosales — a trainer who has multiple runners on this card and clearly has horses fit and ready. The 33% career win rate is the second-best in this race and is a striking stat for a horse going off at 5/1. That kind of win consistency at the starter allowance level deserves respect, and J. B. Books should factor as at minimum a show play.

Race 9

12:53 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The closing allowance sprint is the classiest non-stakes race on the card, featuring a pair of horses with genuinely strong TrackWiz ratings that create a compelling exacta and win battle, with the public likely to be split.

win4ImpassableML 9/2

Impassable tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 and is the most analytically compelling win pick on the card given the 9/2 morning line — you're getting a number-one figure horse at a price that suggests the market hasn't fully caught up. Frank T. Alvarado, one of the card's most active jockeys, picks up the mount for Howard Belvoir, and a 12% career win rate with an average speed of 56 gives Impassable the raw tools to compete at the allowance level. Six furlongs plays to this horse's strengths, and the pace scenario should be manageable.

place1Da SmokeML 4/1

Da Smoke is the second-best figure in the field at 80.11 and brings genuine credentials with a 20% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in tonight's allowance divisions. Silvio Ruiz Amador rides for trainer Anne Wisdom, and an average speed of 56, tied with Impassable, suggests a horse that can hold its position throughout a six-furlong trip. The 4/1 morning line is honest money for a place play on a horse with legitimate winning history.

show2Blackberry JamML 5/1

Blackberry Jam sits at 5/1 on the morning line with a 68.74 TrackWiz rating — the third-best figure in the field — and trainer Ryland M. Harwood sends Blake Nunnally out on a horse with a 25% career win rate that's arguably the best among the top three contenders. That win percentage combined with an average speed of 56 gives Blackberry Jam a legitimate shot to hit the board. If the pace between the two top figures gets honest, Blackberry Jam could be closing late.

Race 10

1:19 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The card closes with a nine-horse mile claiming race where two horses — separated by just a few rating points — figure to be the class of the field, while a morning-line third choice quietly offers the best value-per-figure combination on the entire card.

win8Five Twenty SunsetML 7/2

Five Twenty Sunset holds the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and goes at 7/2 on the morning line for trainer Joe Toye with Silvio Ruiz Amador aboard — a jockey who has been a consistent presence all night. A 16% career win rate is solid in the claiming ranks, and the 54 average speed over a mile suggests a horse that can maintain its position without getting caught up in pace battles. The rating gap between Five Twenty Sunset and the third horse in this field is substantial, making this a logical late-card win play.

place1Bourbon DancerML 5/2

Bourbon Dancer is the second-best figure at 83.36 and goes at 5/2 — the morning line favorite — for trainer Victor M. Trujillo with Frank T. Alvarado in the irons. A 12% career win rate at a mile with a 54 average speed makes this a legitimate contender, and the price differential between Bourbon Dancer (5/2) and Five Twenty Sunset (7/2) is interesting. Public money will likely make Bourbon Dancer even shorter — which actually makes it the right play to focus on for a win while considering Five Twenty Sunset the TrackWiz top figure.

show5Gordy's BoyML 6/1

Gordy's Boy is the TrackWiz-recommended show play in the finale, posting a 59.81 rating at 6/1 for trainer Guillermo Preciado with Pablo E. Castillo up. The rating puts Gordy's Boy in a clear third tier — ahead of the mid-to-low-figure horses and behind the two standouts — which is precisely the profile you want for a show inclusion. A 54 average speed over the mile distance and a 6% career win rate suggest a horse that has competed at this level and can find the board in a competitive race.

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Bottom line: it's a beautiful day at Emerald Downs, the dirt should be fast, and we've got strong opinions on both ends of the card. Pistol Power is the marquee free play, Al's Big Boy is the price play, and premium subscribers have a full roadmap through the back half. Good luck at the windows — and as always, bet responsibly.

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