Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 3, 2026

Roll Dem Bones is the morning line favorite at 6/5 with an 80.56 TrackWiz rating — second only to Upright in this field. Trainer Joe Toye and jockey Silvio Ruiz Amador are a familiar partnership at Emerald Downs, and a 12% career win rate in claiming company shows consistent competitiveness. If Upright draws the pace pressure, Roll Dem Bones could be sitting on a perfect stalker trip.

Fraser Landing is the third piece of this puzzle at 5/2 on the morning line and a 69.89 TrackWiz rating — a clear step below the top two but well ahead of the rest of the field. A 19% career win rate is among the stronger marks in this race, and trainer Steve C. Fisher has him in a spot where hitting the board is a realistic outcome. Solid show anchor and a worthwhile exacta inclusion underneath the top pair.

Bacalar represents legitimate upside at 5/1 on the morning line — a 76.13 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, and a 56 average speed figure that actually ties for the top mark in the race alongside Sing a Happy Song. Trainer Shelly Crowe also fields My Best Gift in this spot, so the barn has two runners to play the pace scenario. Bacalar's combination of speed and rating makes him a strong underneath play.

Sing a Happy Song has the second-best career win rate in this field at 28% — that's a meaningful number in a claiming race and speaks to a horse who shows up on race day. The 9/5 morning line may seem short for a show pick, but that price makes her a natural for exacta wheels and trifecta construction. Trainer Joe Toye also conditions Bourbon Tiger, meaning the barn likely has a plan for both.

Army Knife is the value angle here — an 8/1 morning line price that dramatically underestimates a 71.61 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the entire field. Trainer Doug A. Carlson sends out Blake Nunnally, and the 55 average speed figure is right in the mix for six furlongs on the Emerald Downs dirt. At those odds, Army Knife is a genuine overlay in the place and exacta pools.

Dixie's Delight checks in at 5/2 on the morning line — the shortest price in the field — with a 69.4 TrackWiz rating that ranks third among the nine horses. Trainer Blaine D. Wright is a notable presence at this meet, and a 55 average speed figure puts her right in the speed battle. She's a natural show bet for conservative players who want exposure to the race chalk.

Counteract brings a 72.12 TrackWiz rating and a matching 23% career win rate — identical in that regard to Elder Mack — which tells you this horse competes at a high level consistently. Trainer Dan L. Markle puts Alex M. Cruz up, and the 56 average speed ties him with several others at the top of the pace group. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's a solid value underneath the top pick.

Golden River is an interesting show play at 5/2 on the morning line — shorter odds than our place pick, which suggests the public rates him highly here. A 67.53 TrackWiz rating ranks fourth in the field, but a 17% career win rate and consistent 56 average speed show a horse that knows how to perform. Trainer Sergio S. Perez also has Elegant Boy in the race, giving the barn two angles to play.

Too Much Tatum is the value play of the card at 12/1 on the morning line — a 72.92 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this nine-horse field despite a price that says the public isn't paying attention. Trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez also fields Itsgrandsalamitime in this race, but it's Too Much Tatum who grades out as a legitimate threat to hit the board. At those odds, she's a must-use underneath My Eliana in exactas.

Circle of Fire rates third in this field at 70.36 on the TrackWiz model and posts the highest average speed figure among our three picks at 55. Trainer Gary E.O. Greiner sends out Silvio Ruiz Amador, who has been active and engaged throughout today's program. At 6/1 on the morning line, Circle of Fire offers solid show value and rounds out a productive trifecta combination with our top two selections.