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Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 3, 2026

July 3, 20268 racesAll Emerald Downs picks

This card ran on July 3, 2026.

Best bets at Emerald Downs, July 3, 2026

Race 15KyalamML 9/58:00 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Happy Fourth of July eve, Emerald Downs fans. The Pacific Northwest's favorite track serves up an 8-race Friday card under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 75°F — about as good as it gets for a summer afternoon at Auburn. No weather drama to account for today, which means it comes down to the horses, the pace, and the numbers.

All 8 races are on the dirt, a mix of Claiming and Maiden Claiming company ranging from a sharp 5-furlong sprint in Race 5 all the way out to a pair of 1-mile routes to kick off the card. That kind of variety gives players plenty of angles to work with, whether you're hunting pace advantages in the sprints or looking for closers to fire in those longer routes.

TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on three free races to get you started — and a full premium breakdown of the remaining five races for subscribers who want the complete picture heading into the holiday weekend.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top-rated standout looms over this one-mile claiming opener, but the morning line favorite sits right behind with nearly identical speed and a tighter price.

win5KyalamML 9/5

Kyalam is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field by a significant margin — an 88.83 rating that towers over the competition — and a 12% career win rate that leads the field. Trainer Joe Toye sends out Silvio Ruiz Amador, a capable combo to watch at Emerald Downs. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the edge in our ratings model is too large to ignore for a win ticket.

place1Aloha ChromeML 7/5

Aloha Chrome is the morning line favorite at 7/5 with a solid 64.59 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 53, right in line with the top of this field. The 7% career win rate is modest, but in a short five-horse field, hitting the board is a realistic outcome, and the price suggests the public agrees.

show2Fae AllannahML 12/1

Fae Allannah is the hidden value piece here — a 12/1 morning line price with a 63.87 rating that's nearly identical to the place pick, Aloha Chrome. Her average speed of 54 actually edges out the morning line chalk, and at double-digit odds in a five-horse field, she's a smart inclusion in any exacta or trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

8:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Wide-open maiden claiming mile with three horses bunched at the top of the ratings, setting up a competitive finish where the price on the top pick offers solid value.

win3They See Me Do ItML 2/1

They See Me Do It tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 in this maiden claiming mile and draws the benefit of hot-hand jockey Adrian Castellanos in the irons. The 2/1 morning line is fair given the rating gap over the field — Sailing Force is next best at 84.09, meaning this isn't a runaway advantage, but the edge is real. In maiden races, our model's form indicators tend to be reliable, and this one has the profile of a horse ready to break through.

place5Sailing ForceML 7/2

Sailing Force comes in with an 84.09 rating — second-best in the field — and trainer Patty Leaney saddles Alex M. Cruz for this spot. Her average speed figure of 54 matches the pace of the top horses, and at 7/2 on the morning line, she's a natural fit underneath in exactas. In a field full of maidens chasing a first win, finding the board at that price is a strong objective.

show4Roxie's SecretML 4/1

Roxie's Secret checks in at a 73.16 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — with an average speed of 55 that actually leads all horses in this race. Trainer David B. Martinez also fields Princess Amber (program 6), which means he has a read on what this track is doing today. At 4/1 on the morning line, Roxie's Secret is a logical show bet and a key player in tri combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our free best bets center on three races spread across the early portion of the card. Kyalam opens things up in Race 1 — a 1-mile Claiming dirt route — drawing a 9/5 morning line and a TrackWiz rating of 88.83, the highest mark on the entire card. They See Me Do It takes our top spot in Race 2, a Maiden Claiming mile where the 2/1 morning line suggests the market respects this horse but hasn't fully priced in the edge our model sees. Empirical rounds out the free trio in Race 3, a 5½-furlong Claiming sprint matching Kyalam's 88.83 rating — keep an eye on whether the pace setup in that sprint favors front-runners, which would only add to the case.

One thread connecting these three picks: they're all in races where TrackWiz ratings suggest a clear separation from the rest of the field. On a card that stays firm and fair all afternoon, that kind of class edge tends to hold up. These aren't throws at the wall — they're horses our analysis believes are the most likely winners at their respective distances today.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Empirical looms as the class of this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, but the pace scenario could get spicy with a couple of speed-bred types in the field capable of pressing the issue.

win4EmpiricalML 9/5

Empirical leads all comers with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest mark on today's entire card — and trainer Kay Penney Cooper sends out Kevin E. Orozco, a jockey well-acquainted with Emerald Downs. The 9/5 morning line is the shortest price in the race, but the rating gap over the second-best horse (Tiosimage at 53.33) is massive. A 20% career win rate also shows this horse knows how to finish the job.

place3TiosimageML 5/1

Tiosimage is an intriguing place option at 5/1 — trainer Blaine D. Wright places horses well at this level, and the 56 average speed figure is tied for the top mark in the field alongside Empirical. The 5/1 morning line offers real value for a horse our model rates third in the field but who clearly has the raw speed to keep pace through the stretch.

show2Southern AntonML 3/1

Southern Anton brings a 52.30 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — a solid record that suggests this horse has been around the winner's circle before. Trainer Tim McCanna keeps him in familiar conditions here, and the 55 average speed figure is competitive at this level. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's a reasonable show bet and a sensible bottom of the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Upright and Roll Dem Bones look set for a fascinating head-to-head in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint — one holds a rating edge, the other owns the shorter price, making this a genuine battle.

win3UprightML 2/1

Upright carries the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 and boasts the best average speed figure in the race at 57 — a meaningful edge in a sprint. Trainer Rigoberto Velasquez hands the reins to Adrian Castellanos, a jockey who has shown sharp form throughout this card. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse who grades out clearly ahead on our metrics.

place5Roll Dem BonesML 6/5

Roll Dem Bones is the morning line favorite at 6/5 with an 80.56 TrackWiz rating — second only to Upright in this field. Trainer Joe Toye and jockey Silvio Ruiz Amador are a familiar partnership at Emerald Downs, and a 12% career win rate in claiming company shows consistent competitiveness. If Upright draws the pace pressure, Roll Dem Bones could be sitting on a perfect stalker trip.

show1Fraser LandingML 5/2

Fraser Landing is the third piece of this puzzle at 5/2 on the morning line and a 69.89 TrackWiz rating — a clear step below the top two but well ahead of the rest of the field. A 19% career win rate is among the stronger marks in this race, and trainer Steve C. Fisher has him in a spot where hitting the board is a realistic outcome. Solid show anchor and a worthwhile exacta inclusion underneath the top pair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

10:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Seven horses line up for this five-furlong claiming sprint, and while the top rating belongs to Bourbon Tiger, there's enough pace and depth behind him to make the exacta and trifecta interesting.

win4Bourbon TigerML 2/1

Bourbon Tiger owns the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and comes in at a fair 2/1 morning line under jockey Isaias D. Enriquez. His 55 average speed is competitive at five furlongs on the Emerald Downs dirt, and trainer Frank Lucarelli puts him in a claiming spot where that rating edge should be decisive. A 15% career win rate is right in line with this level.

place7BacalarML 5/1

Bacalar represents legitimate upside at 5/1 on the morning line — a 76.13 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, and a 56 average speed figure that actually ties for the top mark in the race alongside Sing a Happy Song. Trainer Shelly Crowe also fields My Best Gift in this spot, so the barn has two runners to play the pace scenario. Bacalar's combination of speed and rating makes him a strong underneath play.

show3Sing a Happy SongML 9/5

Sing a Happy Song has the second-best career win rate in this field at 28% — that's a meaningful number in a claiming race and speaks to a horse who shows up on race day. The 9/5 morning line may seem short for a show pick, but that price makes her a natural for exacta wheels and trifecta construction. Trainer Joe Toye also conditions Bourbon Tiger, meaning the barn likely has a plan for both.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

10:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Nine horses go in this six-furlong claiming sprint, and the race shapes up with a real value angle lurking — the top-rated horse is not the morning line favorite, which creates an interesting price dynamic.

win3Booster ClubML 7/2

Booster Club holds the top TrackWiz rating in this nine-horse field at 86.35 and carries an impressive 25% career win rate — one of the highest marks on today's card. Trainer Michael Puhich puts Pablo E. Castillo up, and at 7/2 on the morning line, Booster Club offers the rare combination of top ratings and a reasonable price. In a wide-open nine-horse field, that rating edge matters.

place1Army KnifeML 8/1

Army Knife is the value angle here — an 8/1 morning line price that dramatically underestimates a 71.61 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the entire field. Trainer Doug A. Carlson sends out Blake Nunnally, and the 55 average speed figure is right in the mix for six furlongs on the Emerald Downs dirt. At those odds, Army Knife is a genuine overlay in the place and exacta pools.

show6Dixie's DelightML 5/2

Dixie's Delight checks in at 5/2 on the morning line — the shortest price in the field — with a 69.4 TrackWiz rating that ranks third among the nine horses. Trainer Blaine D. Wright is a notable presence at this meet, and a 55 average speed figure puts her right in the speed battle. She's a natural show bet for conservative players who want exposure to the race chalk.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

11:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive six-furlong claiming field with legitimate depth across the ratings, but Elder Mack stands out on both raw figures and career production — the question is whether the 7/2 price holds.

win5Elder MackML 7/2

Elder Mack leads all seven horses with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with a 23% career win rate — among the best in this field. Trainer Blaine D. Wright fields him at 7/2 on the morning line with Kevin Krigger in the irons, a strong jockey-trainer combination at this level. His 56 average speed figure is tied for the top mark in the race, and the six-furlong distance at Emerald Downs is a natural fit for his profile.

place4CounteractML 5/1

Counteract brings a 72.12 TrackWiz rating and a matching 23% career win rate — identical in that regard to Elder Mack — which tells you this horse competes at a high level consistently. Trainer Dan L. Markle puts Alex M. Cruz up, and the 56 average speed ties him with several others at the top of the pace group. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's a solid value underneath the top pick.

show7Golden RiverML 5/2

Golden River is an interesting show play at 5/2 on the morning line — shorter odds than our place pick, which suggests the public rates him highly here. A 67.53 TrackWiz rating ranks fourth in the field, but a 17% career win rate and consistent 56 average speed show a horse that knows how to perform. Trainer Sergio S. Perez also has Elegant Boy in the race, giving the barn two angles to play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

12:06 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Nine maiden claimers go at six furlongs to close out the card, and My Eliana looks like the clear class of the field — though the double-digit odds on Too Much Tatum create a genuine exacta puzzle.

win9My ElianaML 5/2

My Eliana is the standout in this nine-horse maiden claiming finale with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — nearly 15 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. Trainer Jorge Rosales puts Adrian Castellanos up, a combination that has been sharp throughout today's card. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price reflects the form, and in a maiden field this wide open, the rating advantage is compelling.

place1Too Much TatumML 12/1

Too Much Tatum is the value play of the card at 12/1 on the morning line — a 72.92 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this nine-horse field despite a price that says the public isn't paying attention. Trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez also fields Itsgrandsalamitime in this race, but it's Too Much Tatum who grades out as a legitimate threat to hit the board. At those odds, she's a must-use underneath My Eliana in exactas.

show5Circle of FireML 6/1

Circle of Fire rates third in this field at 70.36 on the TrackWiz model and posts the highest average speed figure among our three picks at 55. Trainer Gary E.O. Greiner sends out Silvio Ruiz Amador, who has been active and engaged throughout today's program. At 6/1 on the morning line, Circle of Fire offers solid show value and rounds out a productive trifecta combination with our top two selections.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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A clean, 75-degree afternoon at Emerald Downs with Kyalam and Empirical leading a solid free card — and five more races with real value waiting in the premium breakdown. Whether you're playing the first three or going full card, TrackWiz has you covered. Good luck out there, and enjoy the holiday weekend at the track.

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