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Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

Sunday, June 28, 20268 racesEmerald Downs

It's a beautiful Sunday at Emerald Downs — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 68°F mean the track crew has had ideal drying conditions, and we're expecting a fast, consistent dirt surface throughout the afternoon. Eight races on the board, all on the dirt, giving us a clean read on how the bias plays out from the jump.

Today's card runs the full spectrum — a pair of maiden special weights, maiden claimers, a starter allowance going a flat mile, and an allowance optional claiming spot that figures to draw some sharp money. Whether you're looking for a straightforward win bet or building toward a multi-race exotic sequence, there's plenty to work with here.

TrackWiz has analysis on all eight races. Races 1, 2, and 3 are open to everyone. Races 4 through 8 — including what shapes up as the most competitive half of the card — are available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer with all first-time or winless runners makes this wide open, but TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — one horse stands well above the rest on paper.

win2My Sweet ForzaML 5/2

My Sweet Forza (No. 2) tops our TrackWiz ratings by a significant margin at 87.81 — more than 29 points clear of the next-best horse in the field. That kind of separation in a maiden claimer is hard to ignore. Blake Nunnally gets the call for trainer Jorge Maravilla, and posting a 5/2 morning line despite that rating advantage suggests the market may be underestimating this one. With an average speed figure of 55, the raw foot is there to take this short sprint.

place4Booming BernardoML 5/1

Booming Bernardo (No. 4) edges into our place spot with a TrackWiz rating of 58.60, fractionally ahead of the morning-line favorite Oneonta. Trainer Bruce Dillenbeck sends him out with Karlo Lopez — a competent pilot — and at 5/1 on the morning line there's real value if he can find a clean trip in a compact five-horse field. His average speed of 55 keeps him competitive for a piece.

show1OneontaML 2/1

Oneonta (No. 1) opens as the 2/1 morning-line choice under trainer Howard F. Gibson and jockey Talliyah Timentwa, likely drawing that support from connections bettors trust. A TrackWiz rating of 58.33 is respectable in this spot, and the rail post in a six-furlong maiden claimer is a workable draw. Worth including in exacta and trifecta coverage as a logical third option.

Race 2

9:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Blaine D. Wright saddles two horses in this six-furlong claimer, and the barn's top choice sits at even money — but a couple of live alternatives make this more than a single-horse race.

win2Mr. ExecutiveML EVN

Mr. Executive (No. 2) is our top selection and it's easy to see why — a field-best TrackWiz rating of 90.00 combined with a 15% career win rate gives this horse a clear edge on form. Kevin Krigger, one of the sharper riders in this colony, takes the mount for trainer Blaine D. Wright. The even-money morning line reflects legitimate market confidence, and at six furlongs on the dirt, the speed figure of 55 should be adequate to handle this field.

place4Convey to MeML 5/2

Convey to Me (No. 4) brings an 18% career win rate to the table — the best in the field — and carries a solid 69.26 TrackWiz rating. Silvio Ruiz Amador rides for trainer Charles Essex, and the 5/2 morning line reflects genuine respect from the morning-line maker. A horse that wins nearly one in five starts is worth boxing in exactas and shouldn't be dismissed as a place candidate.

show3Louie the FirstML 3/1

Louie the First (No. 3) is actually the field's career win percentage leader at 20% — a figure that stands out in any field. He draws the Wright barn's secondary support with Blake Nunnally up, and a TrackWiz rating of 64.35 makes him a legitimate third option. The 3/1 morning line offers fair value if the Wright one-two gets crowded at the top.

Race 3

10:06 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Ten first-time starters in a five-furlong maiden special weight — with no prior speed figures to lean on, trainer patterns and morning-line signals become the primary handicapping tools.

win5Kraken UpML 7/2

Kraken Up (No. 5) sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 — the highest mark in a field where the spread between horses is tight. Karlo Lopez gets the call for the Blaine D. Wright barn, and Wright has a knack for presenting first-time starters ready to fire. A 7/2 morning line in a ten-horse field with no speed figures suggests the market has noticed something in the mornings. In wide-open maiden sprints, going with the top-rated horse and a sharp trainer combo is sound logic.

place8Harbor of HopeML 5/1

Harbor of Hope (No. 8) carries a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and drew the attention of trainer Frank Lucarelli, who also saddles Epic in Time in this race — which tells you something about how he views this one. Isaias D. Enriquez handles the riding duties, and the 5/1 morning line makes Harbor of Hope an attractive place play with upside if the favorite stumbles. Worth including in exactas and trifectas.

show1ZiwhatML 6/1

Ziwhat (No. 1) shares a 51.67 rating with Epic in Time but gets the rail post and a 6/1 morning line that could offer value in trifecta construction. Tom Wenzel conditions this one alongside stablemate Diamond Dasher, giving the barn two shots in the race. The rail in a five-furlong dirt sprint at Emerald Downs can be an asset if the horse breaks cleanly, making Ziwhat a logical show coverage pick.

The first three races give us a nice early read on pace and surface. My Sweet Forza opens the card as our top play in Race 1 at 5/2 on the morning line — a solid rating of 87.81 in a maiden claiming field where class and early foot tend to separate contenders quickly at six furlongs. Race 2 brings Mr. Executive in at even money, and frankly the 90 TrackWiz rating backs up that favoritism — this is a horse worth trusting at a short price in a claiming sprint. Race 3 is the wild card of the trio: Kraken Up draws our top spot in a maiden special weight at 5 furlongs, though a rating of 55.83 tells you this is a wide-open affair — use underneath in exactas rather than leaning hard on the win pool.

One thread connecting all three early races: six furlongs and five furlongs on a consistent dirt surface tend to reward horses who can get to the front or stalk a fast pace without burning out. Watch the early splits in Race 1 — they'll tell you a lot about how speed is holding up today before you finalize your tickets for the back half of the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:34 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Native Empress draws heavy support as the clear class standout in this maiden special weight, but a few live alternatives lurk at attractive prices in a seven-horse field.

win2Native EmpressML 6/5

Native Empress (No. 2) is the dominant figure here — an 89.71 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the rest of the field and a 6/5 morning line that reflects the crowd's agreement. Kevin Krigger, who also took the mount on the top pick in Race 2, is one of the meet's most reliable jockeys, and trainer Tim McCanna puts horses in position to win. The average speed figure of 55 is competitive at six furlongs, and in a maiden field where no one else rates above 56 in speed, this looks like a horse trying to graduate against a soft group.

place5Cross the CountryML 7/2

Cross the Country (No. 5) draws a 7/2 morning line and a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — the second-best in the field — making her an interesting place play at a price. Trainer Kay Penney Cooper sends her out first-time (no prior speed figure on record), and Kevin E. Orozco rides. First-time starters with top ratings and manageable morning lines in maiden company often run better than expected, making this a smart exacta partner with the heavy favorite.

show4Our Hula GirlML 9/2

Our Hula Girl (No. 4) rates third in the field at 54.17 with an average speed of 55 and a 9/2 morning line that gives her solid trifecta appeal. Trainer Tom Wenzel and jockey Adrian Castellanos are a familiar combination at Emerald Downs, and Wenzel keeps a strong stable on the grounds. If the top two run as expected, Our Hula Girl looks like a logical third-place finisher to close out the trifecta.

Race 5

11:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Tougherthantherest carries the lowest TrackWiz rating of the main contenders — creating a potential mismatch that our analysis flags as a prime upset opportunity at 5½ furlongs.

win3Olympic LegendML 5/2

Olympic Legend (No. 3) is our top pick with a 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the field's best — while posting a 5/2 morning line that implies the market is catching up to this assessment. Trainer Candice S. Cryderman sends out the horse with Adrian Castellanos, and the 15% career win rate is respectable in claiming company. The average speed of 56 ties for the field lead, which matters in a sprint where fractions come fast.

place6Rhodium RunnerML 5/1

Rhodium Runner (No. 6) is our place selection at 5/1 on the morning line — a price that could be generous given a TrackWiz rating of 70.61, second-best in the field. Blake Nunnally rides for the Doug A. Carlson barn, which also has Bedrock in the race. A 12% career win rate in claiming races isn't flashy, but the speed figure of 55 is workable, and at 5/1 the value case is compelling for exacta players.

show4BedrockML 6/1

Bedrock (No. 4) rates third in the field at 65.45 and posts the same 56 average speed as the top two selections. Trainer Doug A. Carlson runs him alongside Rhodium Runner, suggesting the barn is serious about both entries. At 6/1 on the morning line, Bedrock offers trifecta value if Carlson's stable fires on all cylinders, making the 4-6 exacta box and a trifecta that includes both Carlson horses an interesting wager.

Race 6

11:48 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming field where Somekindaoutlaw's unbeaten record catches the eye, but Now Cato's superior speed and ratings make this a compelling clash between perfect record and top form.

win4Now CatoML 2/1

Now Cato (No. 4) leads the field with a 70.58 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 57 — a meaningful edge in a six-furlong dirt sprint. Blake Nunnally rides for trainer Sergio S. Perez, and a 16% career win rate might seem modest until you note the overall quality of competition in allowance optional claiming. The 2/1 morning line is the shortest non-favorite price in the field and feels right for a horse who outrates the competition on multiple metrics.

place5SomekindaoutlawML 4/1

Somekindaoutlaw (No. 5) is fascinating — a 100% career win rate (meaning undefeated) combined with a 4/1 morning line from trainer Doug McPhee. A TrackWiz rating of 55.00 is modest by comparison, but perfect records earn respect until proven otherwise. Silvio Ruiz Amador gets the call, and if this one has been pointing to a step up in class, the unbeaten tag could mean more than the raw numbers suggest. A solid place play at a price.

show2Fred MoML 15/1

Fred Mo (No. 2) is our show selection and also a sneaky longshot angle — 15/1 on the morning line with a 53.51 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate that matches Glorious Run and Coastal Journey. Trainer Robert Baze is a familiar name at Pacific Northwest tracks and rarely runs horses without a chance. Kevin E. Orozco takes the mount, and if the top two draw each other into a pace battle, Fred Mo could be rolling late to pick up a piece at a big price.

Race 7

12:31 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile starter allowance shapes up as a two-horse race at the top of the ratings, with Greatful Attitude and Princess Hekawi separated by less than three points — expect a duel that could go down to the wire.

win2Greatful AttitudeML 5/2

Greatful Attitude (No. 2) earns the top spot with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — one in four starts is strong form for any allowance division. Adrian Castellanos rides for trainer Frank Lucarelli, whose barn has multiple entries on the card today, suggesting the stable is in good form. A 5/2 morning line is fair value for a horse with this profile going a route of ground, where his consistency should shine.

place3Princess HekawiML 3/1

Princess Hekawi (No. 3) is nearly as strong at 84.89 on the TrackWiz scale — and her 46% career win rate is the best figure in this entire race field by a wide margin. Nearly half of her career starts have ended in victories, which is a remarkable conversion rate at any level. Kevin Krigger, who's been busy on the top picks today, handles the mount for Tim McCanna. If Princess Hekawi runs to her win-rate potential, she's a serious threat to beat Greatful Attitude outright.

show1SunglassesML 6/1

Sunglasses (No. 1) draws the rail in a one-mile route — a tricky spot — but a 59.29 TrackWiz rating and 6/1 morning line make her worth including in trifecta tickets. Frank T. Alvarado has the mount for trainer Sergio S. Perez, and while the 12% career win rate is modest, show horses don't need to be stars. If the top two run as expected and the pace gets hot up front, a well-positioned Sunglasses could grab third on the far turn.

Race 8

12:59 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap at Emerald Downs features a tight top three with Got Your Six, Caviar Cowboy, and Shiny Orb all showing solid credentials — but the heavy morning-line favorite has the edge on ratings heading to the gate.

win1Got Your SixML 7/5

Got Your Six (No. 1) opens as the 7/5 chalk and backs it up with the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.02. Karlo Lopez has been active on today's card and takes this mount for trainer Jorge Rosales. An average speed figure of 56 ties for the field lead, and while the career win percentage isn't listed due to limited sample, the combination of top rating and lowest morning-line odds in the field signals trainer confidence. In a six-furlong closing sprint, this one profiles as the one to beat.

place2Caviar CowboyML 9/2

Caviar Cowboy (No. 2) rates just behind the top pick at 84.90 — a difference of barely one point — and carries a 16% career win rate that translates to a live contender at 9/2. Frank T. Alvarado rides for trainer Rigoberto Velasquez, and the 9/2 morning line on a horse this close to the top pick in the ratings is where value lives in exactas. Speed of 54 is slightly off the leader, but in a six-furlong race with pace likely up front, a closer's trip could set up perfectly.

show3Shiny OrbML 2/1

Shiny Orb (No. 3) is listed at 2/1 on the morning line — shorter than our show pick's projected odds — and brings a 33% career win rate that's the best in the field. Trainer Tom Wenzel sends out Adrian Castellanos, a reliable combination at Emerald Downs. The 78.01 TrackWiz rating makes this the third-best horse in the race on paper, and trifecta players should feel comfortable including Shiny Orb in the bottom of their tickets at a price that could drift higher if money flows to the top two.

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A firm dirt track, mild weather, and eight races spanning the full range of conditions — Emerald Downs is setting up for a fun Sunday card. My Sweet Forza, Mr. Executive, and Kraken Up are your free best bets to start the day. For the complete picture — including Native Empress, Got Your Six, and the rest of the premium card — subscribe to TrackWiz and get the full analysis. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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