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Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

July 11, 20268 racesAll Emerald Downs picks

This card ran on July 11, 2026.

Best bets at Emerald Downs, July 11, 2026

Race 14Drive TrainML 2/14:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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It's a beautiful Pacific Northwest afternoon at Emerald Downs — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 72°F mean conditions should stay consistent throughout the day. No weather excuses, no surface surprises. Just horses, speed figures, and eight races to work through.

Today's card is a dirt-only affair stretching from 5 furlongs all the way out to a mile, with a mix of claiming races, maiden claimers, and a Starter Allowance in Race 6 to keep things interesting. That variety in distance and conditions class gives sharp bettors plenty of angles to exploit — and a few spots where the morning line looks very beatable.

TrackWiz has broken down the full eight-race card. Three races are available to everyone, with five premium analyses waiting for subscribers who want the complete picture before they hit the windows.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open mile on the dirt with a clear TrackWiz rating gap at the top — Drive Train holds a significant edge on paper, but longshot money could flow toward the morning line chalk R Barracuda.

win4Drive TrainML 2/1

Drive Train (#4) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 — a meaningful gap over the next closest competitor. Frank T. Alvarado picks up the mount for trainer Scott Tubbs, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the public's awareness of this horse's class advantage. The one-mile dirt distance sets up as a thorough test, and Drive Train's profile suggests the added ground works in his favor. At a fair price, this is your top single in Race 1.

place3Hot GoblinML 5/1

Hot Goblin (#3) rates second in the field at 65.09 and goes for trainer Francisco Rodriguez with Kevin E. Orozco in the irons. Posted at 5/1 on the morning line, there's some value here if Drive Train gets caught — Hot Goblin's rating edge over the rest of the field gives him a clear path to the exacta.

show5Go Lent GoML 5/2

Go Lent Go (#5) at 5/2 is the third-highest rated horse in the field at 61.92 and shares a barn with R Barracuda under trainer Jaymie Pearman Cruz. A 4% career win rate is modest, but in a thin five-horse field, hitting the board is a realistic outcome. Solid inclusion in your trifecta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

5:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Three horses are bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — Oh My Vron, Fae Allannah, and Janey — making this a race where pace scenario and jockey execution could be the deciding factor.

win2Oh My VronML 3/1

Oh My Vron (#2) edges this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a career win rate of 10% — the best in the field. Adrian Castellanos is a strong pick-up in the irons, and trainer Jorge Rosales has shown a knack for putting horses in winning spots. At 3/1 on the morning line, Oh My Vron offers solid win value in what could easily be a pick-three linchpin.

place3Fae AllannahML 9/5

Fae Allannah (#3) sits just a tick below with a rating of 86.05 and draws Kevin E. Orozco for trainer Victor M. Trujillo. The 9/5 morning line makes her the public choice, but our analysis puts Oh My Vron a shade ahead — still, Fae Allannah is too consistent to leave out of the exacta, and a place finish looks highly probable.

show6JaneyML 5/2

Janey (#6) is the show play here with an eye-catching 33% career win rate — by far the best in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 81.76. Silvio Ruiz Amador takes the call for trainer Tim McCanna. At 5/2, she's not a throwback price, but that win percentage tells you this horse knows how to hit the board and should factor in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free best bets today span different distances and give you a nice cross-section of the card. Drive Train (Race 1, 2/1 ML) headlines the group with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the strongest number among our free picks and enough of a cushion to suggest he's the real deal at today's price. Oh My Vron (Race 2, 3/1 ML) and Mr. Fireball (Race 3, 5/2 ML) round out the trio, with the latter drawing our eye in the short 5½-furlong sprint where early pace control can be decisive on this oval.

One thread connecting all three free races: they're all on dirt at a mile or under, and with the track playing consistent under mild conditions today, we'd lean toward horses with proven dirt form and clean recent works rather than those asking you to make excuses for them. Let the numbers do the talking.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mr. Fireball looks like a pace-pressing standout in this 5½-furlong sprint, posting the top speed figure and win percentage in the field — though Time Ticker and Mojave could make it interesting late.

win4Mr. FireballML 5/2

Mr. Fireball (#4) is the clear class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and an average speed figure of 56 — among the best in the race. His 23% career win rate is exceptional for a claiming horse and speaks to his reliability at this level. Frank T. Alvarado is a proven hand at Emerald Downs, and trainer Rosie Simkins has this horse primed. At 5/2, Mr. Fireball is a confident best bet.

place6Time TickerML 9/5

Time Ticker (#6) rates at 71.82 and brings Alex M. Cruz to the plate for trainer Howard F. Gibson. The 9/5 morning line on a horse who rates second in the field by TrackWiz metrics suggests the public is in agreement — Time Ticker's profile fits a closer or stalker who can collect the place when the front end battles it out.

show5MojaveML 7/2

Mojave (#5) checks in at 66.77 and shares a top average speed of 56 with Mr. Fireball — matching the fastest figures in the race. Blake Nunnally rides for trainer Jennifer Nunnally (a family operation that knows this horse well), and the 7/2 morning line gives this show play a little overlay potential if the pace sets up for him.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

6:26 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This wide-open maiden claiming sprint is loaded with first-time types and winless horses — TrackWiz analysis surfaces a pair of overlooked contenders that could blow up the board.

win7Tiz DynamicML 12/1

Tiz Dynamic (#7) leads our TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 73.96 despite an eye-catching 12/1 morning line — that's a significant disconnect worth exploiting. Kiaman McGregor gets the call for trainer Doug McPhee, and with every horse in this race at zero career wins, form cycles and workout patterns carry extra weight. The rating gap between Tiz Dynamic and the rest of the field is the clearest edge we have, and this horse merits serious consideration at a generous price.

place3Star TravelML 7/2

Star Travel (#3) rates a strong second in the field at 71.63 and lands Alex M. Cruz for trainer Vince Gibson at a reasonable 7/2 morning line. An average speed figure of 55 is competitive in this company, and Cruz is a reliable pilot who can coax a placing out of a maiden. In a race this unpredictable, having Star Travel in your place slot makes sense.

show1HakaML 15/1

Haka (#1) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 61.17 — third-best in the race — and draws the services of Frank T. Alvarado for trainer Howard Belvoir at the long 15/1 morning line. The price is intriguing for an animal with a legitimate third-best rating, and in a chaotic maiden field where front-runners can steal ground from post 1, Haka is a worthwhile show ticket and trifecta fill.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

6:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Great Runner and Roll Dem Bones shape up as a clear top two here, with pace and positional style likely separating them — this one could set up nicely for the exacta.

win1Great RunnerML 3/1

Great Runner (#1) tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a solid 15% career win rate. Adrian Castellanos takes the assignment for trainer Jorge Rosales — that's a sharp combination at any level. An average speed of 55 is competitive in this six-furlong claiming field, and from the rail post, Great Runner has the opportunity to establish a comfortable stalking position. Our top selection.

place5Roll Dem BonesML 7/2

Roll Dem Bones (#5) rates a close second at 83.60 with a matching 56 average speed figure — the best in this field. Blake Nunnally rides for trainer Howard F. Gibson, and a 14% career win rate on a horse priced at 7/2 suggests the market has this right. If Great Runner gets caught in traffic from post 1, Roll Dem Bones could easily flip the result.

show2Winds of FreedomML 4/1

Winds of Freedom (#2) brings a 72.77 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed in the race at 56, tied with Roll Dem Bones. Silvio Ruiz Amador pilots for trainer Blaine D. Wright, and a 15% career win rate matches Great Runner's — this horse can clearly win at this level. At 4/1 on the morning line, Winds of Freedom is the right call for the show position and a solid exacta backup.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

7:41 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Cap It Daddy draws a contrarian edge in this starter allowance — the 6/5 morning line favorite Chuckanut Bay is strong on paper, but our ratings flip the script and point to a potential upset by the morning line underlay.

win1Cap It DaddyML 5/2

Cap It Daddy (#1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 despite opening at 5/2 — making this one of the better value positions on the card relative to the public's 6/5 favorite. His 37% career win rate is elite and ties the highest in the field, while his average speed figure of 57 is the best in the race. Trainer Elodio Madrigal sends him out with Silvio Ruiz Amador, and the 6½-furlong dirt distance suits a horse with this kind of raw speed. Confident top pick.

place5Chuckanut BayML 6/5

Chuckanut Bay (#5) is the 6/5 public favorite and it's easy to see why — a 37% career win rate and a 57 average speed figure match Cap It Daddy stride for stride. Allyssa Morales pilots for trainer Howard F. Gibson, and in a small six-horse field, a horse this accomplished rarely misses the board. Even if our top pick beats her, Chuckanut Bay is a near-lock for the exacta.

show3PesoML 5/1

Peso (#3) at 5/1 offers a touch of value in the show slot — a 28% career win rate is second only to the top two in this field, and Frank T. Alvarado is an aggressive, confident rider for trainer Debbie Peery. A TrackWiz rating of 57.79 puts Peso clearly ahead of the bottom half of this field, and at five-to-one, there's enough price to make the trifecta math work.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

8:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Roses R Blue owns a commanding TrackWiz rating edge in this mile claiming field, but the morning line has plenty of competition priced tightly — a wide-open exotics race beneath the surface numbers.

win5Roses R BlueML 7/2

Roses R Blue (#5) leads this seven-horse field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — a substantial margin over the second-rated horse. Blake Nunnally gets the mount for trainer Jose Puentes, and while the 11% career win rate is modest, it's the overall rating profile that sets this horse apart in what is a competitive one-mile claiming field. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price for the top-rated runner. Our clear top selection.

place2Gi Gis MapML 9/2

Gi Gis Map (#2) rates second in the field at 66.28 with the top average speed figure among the top contenders at 56. Kevin Krigger for trainer Charles Essex is a capable combination, and a 17% career win rate suggests this horse hits the board with regularity. At 9/2 morning line odds, Gi Gis Map is a sensible exacta partner with Roses R Blue.

show4Shanghai BarbieML 10/1

Shanghai Barbie (#4) is our show play here at an enticing 10/1 morning line — that's a genuine overlay for a horse with a TrackWiz rating of 60.58, placing her third in this field. Kiaman McGregor pilots for trainer Jose Puentes, interestingly the same barn as Roses R Blue. A 14% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure are respectable at this level, and 10/1 in the trifecta could pay handsomely.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

8:47 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming sprint over five furlongs features a deep, winless field — but Lotsa Kitty's rating stands out, and a pair of overlooked deeper prices round out a potentially lucrative trifecta.

win5Lotsa KittyML 4/1

Lotsa Kitty (#5) is the standout in this maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 and, notably, a 7% career win rate in a race full of horses at zero wins — meaning this horse has actually broken her maiden before, giving her a huge experience edge. Blake Nunnally rides for trainer Vince Gibson, and a 55 average speed figure is right in the mix for five furlongs. At 4/1 on the morning line, Lotsa Kitty represents both quality and value as our top selection.

place9DenadaML 8/1

Denada (#9) rates second in this field at 77.97 and is a fascinating play at 8/1 on the morning line. Talliyah Timentwa picks up the mount for trainer Gary E. O. Greiner, and a 55 average speed figure matches Lotsa Kitty step for step. In a maiden race where form is often murky, Denada's rating profile suggests she's ready to fire a big effort — and 8/1 is a price worth chasing in the exacta.

show6Roxie's SecretML 10/1

Roxie's Secret (#6) at 10/1 is a sneaky show play with a TrackWiz rating of 61.88 — third-best in the field despite a double-digit price. Frank T. Alvarado is a proven pilot who can find the rail and save ground in a sprint, and trainer David B. Martinez is worth watching in maiden company. At 10/1, tossing Roxie's Secret into your trifectas could turn a solid ticket into a monster payout.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line for today at Emerald Downs: Drive Train is the marquee free play, the conditions are clean, and the card has genuine opportunity from top to bottom. Our free picks in Races 1–3 are a strong starting point — but if you want the full eight-race roadmap including pace projections, longshot angles, and exotic strategies, subscribers have everything they need waiting for them. Good luck out there, and let's find some winners.

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