Daily Picks

Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — May 24, 2026

Sunday, May 24, 20268 racesEmerald Downs

Happy Sunday from Emerald Downs, where eight races are lined up under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 68°F. Conditions look ideal for fast, honest dirt racing — no rain in the picture, no excuses on the board.

It's a well-rounded card mixing maiden claimers, straight claimers, allowances, and a starter allowance, which means the pace scenarios and class angles vary significantly from race to race. That variety is what makes a card like this genuinely fun to dig into.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all eight races. Three are on the house — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and the remaining five are available to subscribers. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout emerges in this mile-and-seventy-yard claiming opener, but the morning line favorite and a forgotten 5/1 shot make the exotics worth building around.

win3Diamond DeeML 3/1

Diamond Dee tops our TrackWiz ratings with an 87.08 — the highest number in this field by a significant margin — and pairs that with a 19% career win rate that speaks to consistency. Adrian Castellanos gets the call, and the 3/1 morning line actually offers fair value given how much she separates from the pack on our model. At a mile and 70 yards on the Emerald Downs dirt, her rating suggests she can set or stalk a pace scenario that suits her. This is the most straightforward win bet on the early card.

place2Thirsty NicML 5/1

Thirsty Nic is the sneaky play here — trainer Hon Cheung Jerry Kum sends her out at 5/1 with the field's best career win rate at 21%, and her TrackWiz rating of 72.74 slots her comfortably as the second-best horse on paper. Jose Elias Rodriguez has the mount and this horse has the profile of one who finds the board regularly. At 5/1, she's worth including underneath in exactas and doubles.

show1Gold Coast GirlML 2/1

Gold Coast Girl opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite despite ranking third on our model at 61.4, which suggests the public may be overrating her slightly. That said, trainer Joe Toye has two horses in this race, which sometimes signals stable confidence, and a 17% career win rate on a horse going a route of ground keeps her honest. She's a reasonable show anchor if you're building a trifecta.

Race 2

9:17 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden claiming chaos at five furlongs — this entire field has yet to break the maiden, and speed figures are sparse, making our model's edge even more important.

win2Girl At HomeML 8/5

Girl At Home draws the 8/5 morning line and earns it, posting a TrackWiz rating of 59.0 alongside an average speed figure of 56 — tied for best in the field. Kevin Krigger is a savvy choice of jockey for a maiden sprint, and trainer Debbie Peery puts her in at a price that the market clearly respects. In a race where several horses lack any speed figure history at all, having a documented number matters enormously.

place6InorbitML 3/1

Inorbit lands on our place line at 3/1 with a 56.67 rating from trainer Mark Cloutier, and Karlo Lopez — one of the busier riders at this meet — picks up the mount. She's a first-time starter without a published speed figure, which adds uncertainty, but her model score suggests she's worked well enough to factor. The 3/1 price is fair for a horse who profiles as a closer in a field of sprinters.

show4Sweet SmileML 7/2

Sweet Smile checks in at 7/2 with a 55.83 rating for trainer Tim McCanna, who also saddles Gig Street Victory in this race — a potential split-barn play worth noting. Frank T. Alvarado gets on Sweet Smile, and with no public speed figure, the question is all about training tab. She rounds out the top three on our model and gives you coverage in the show spot of any tri tickets.

Race 3

9:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The public will key on the 2/1 morning line horse, but our TrackWiz model sees a significant edge elsewhere — this race has a value angle hiding in plain sight at 9/2.

win5Wood CeilingML 9/2

Wood Ceiling earns the top rating in this field at 84.9 despite going off at 9/2 on the morning line — that gap between public price and model score is the kind of overlay we love. Trainer Frank Lucarelli saddles her with Isaias D. Enriquez up, and a 21% career win rate over a solid sample tells you she's a legitimate winner when conditions align. At a mile and 70 yards, the route distance should suit a horse whose numbers project her as the class of this claiming field. Don't let the price fool you — she's our top pick on value and merit.

place4Brother o' BrienML 7/2

Brother o' Brien is quietly the most accomplished horse in this field on a win-rate basis, carrying a 33% career win mark — best in the race — under trainer Tim McCanna with Kevin Krigger aboard. His TrackWiz rating of 78.44 puts him solidly second on our model, and the 7/2 morning line makes him a strong place-side target in exactas. He's the type who keeps winning at this level, and Krigger knows how to get the best out of a closer going long.

show3BackgroundML 2/1

Background draws the 2/1 morning line favorite billing here, but our model slots him third at 71.73 — suggesting the public may have over-bet him. Alex M. Cruz takes the mount for trainer Michael Puhich, and a 16% career win rate at this claiming level is serviceable but not dominant. He's still worth including in trifectas given his probable favoritism; he'll attract action and hit the board at a decent clip.

The free portion of today's card opens with a mile-and-70-yard claiming sprint in Race 1, where Diamond Dee (morning line 3/1, TrackWiz rating 87.08) stands out as the class of the field. From there, Race 2 drops down to a quick 5-furlong maiden claimer — a wide-open spot where Girl At Home is the 8/5 morning line choice but carries enough question marks that the pace scenario really matters. Race 3 circles back to a mile-and-70 claimer, and Wood Ceiling (9/2 ML, 84.9 rating) looks like a legitimate overlay if the price holds — that's the kind of value angle worth circling on your program.

With all three free races on the dirt and distances stretching a mile-plus in Races 1 and 3, early pace is going to be a recurring theme this afternoon. Horses that can settle and close on a track playing fair should have every opportunity to fire their best numbers.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite looms large in this allowance sprint, but the field behind has enough talent to make the exotics interesting — and one horse at 5/1 has been quietly overlooked.

win1Si That TigerML 8/5

Si That Tiger is an absolute standout on TrackWiz's model — a 89.12 rating and a jaw-dropping 62% career win rate make him the clear top selection in this allowance field. Trainer Blaine D. Wright places him perfectly, and Silvio Ruiz Amador gets a horse who posts the field's highest average speed figure at 57. The 8/5 morning line is short, but with win numbers like those you're not finding a reason to go against him. This is a confident best bet play.

place4Jin TongML 5/1

Jin Tong at 5/1 is the value angle underneath. Trainer Joe Toye sends him out with Karlo Lopez aboard, and his 73.24 TrackWiz rating ranks him second in the field — ahead of the 2/1 morning line horse. His average speed figure of 56 is strong for this level, and the public is likely to underestimate him given his modest 12% career win rate. That rate may undersell his form, and at 5/1 he's the place-side play in exactas and trifectas.

show3Slew's Tiz WhizML 2/1

Slew's Tiz Whiz draws the 2/1 morning line and backs it up with a 41% career win rate — one of the most bankable hit rates in the entire day's card. Frank T. Alvarado gets the call for trainer Tom Wenzel, and a 71.22 rating with a 55 average speed figure confirms she belongs here. She's likely to be over-bet relative to her model ranking, but she's legitimate and anchors the show spot comfortably.

Race 5

11:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tightly-bunched claiming sprint with three horses rated within nine points of each other — pace will be a factor at five and a half furlongs, and the winner could come from anywhere in the top half of the field.

win3Prancin LadyML 7/2

Prancin Lady earns our top pick at 7/2 with an 80.17 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate, making her the best combination of class and consistency in this seven-horse field. Kevin Krigger is one of the sharper riders at Emerald Downs, and trainer Steve Fisher puts her in off what projects as a playable pace scenario. Her average speed figure of 55 ties for the best in the field alongside Swift Caro, setting up a genuine speed duel — but Prancin Lady's higher model rating gives us the edge.

place5Swift CaroML 4/1

Swift Caro is breathing right down Prancin Lady's neck on our model at 79.03, and Frank T. Alvarado gets a horse with a 33% career win rate — that's elite conversion at the claiming level. Trainer Tom Wenzel has a live horse here who matches the top pick on speed figures (55 average) and will likely be forwardly placed. If the pace softens at all, she's the one with the kick to run down or hold off the favorite.

show7Annika's SongML 9/5

Annika's Song draws the 9/5 morning line favorite billing and a 71.43 TrackWiz rating, but our model ranks her third — an interesting divergence that suggests the public may be slightly overvaluing her. Silvio Ruiz Amador is a capable pilot for trainer Mark Cloutier, and while her 12% career win rate is below the top pair, she should factor at this distance. She's a solid show anchor and a must-use in trifectas given her likely public support.

Race 6

11:39 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An eight-horse starter allowance at a mile shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top, with a legitimate longshot lurking for trifecta hunters willing to think outside the top two.

win2Benny BucketsML 3/1

Benny Buckets matches Diamond Dee from Race 1 with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest number in this field by a country mile — and a 17% career win rate that's quietly consistent for a starter allowance. Silvio Ruiz Amador gets the mount for trainer James L. Gilmour, and the 3/1 morning line offers genuine value for the top-rated horse in the race. His average speed figure of 54 is average for this company, but his overall model profile suggests he runs above his raw numbers. This is a strong win play.

place8House of LordsML 5/2

House of Lords checks in at 5/2 on the morning line and posts a 70.94 rating — second best in this field — with Jose Elias Rodriguez picking up the mount. Trainer Rigoberto Velasquez has a 18% career win rate to work with, which matches the win pick's career conversion rate and signals a competitive horse. At 5/2, he's not a screaming value play, but he's the most logical place horse in the field and anchors the exacta key underneath Benny Buckets.

show7K R RulesML 10/1

K R Rules is the show-side value play at 10/1 morning line — Kevin Krigger rarely takes throwaway mounts, and a 64.12 TrackWiz rating puts this horse fifth on the model but very much alive for trifecta purposes. Trainer Liz Kowalski sends him out at a mile, a test that suits horses with some tactical speed, and his 11% career win rate at least confirms he's found the winner's circle before. If the top two horses beat each other up, K R Rules should be scampering up on the outside for a piece.

Race 7

12:08 AM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint with a hidden morning line overlay at the top — the horse our model loves best is being sent out at 7/2 despite the best TrackWiz rating in the field, while a 5/2 shot with a perfect career record adds some intrigue.

win2Bewitching JoyML 7/2

Bewitching Joy is the clear model leader at 86.35 on TrackWiz ratings and carries a 75% career win rate — one of the most impressive conversion numbers you'll see all meet. Trainer Frank Lucarelli pairs her with Isaias D. Enriquez, and the 7/2 morning line is a gift for a horse this far ahead of the field on our ratings. At five and a half furlongs on the Emerald Downs dirt, her speed figure of 55 keeps pace with the best in this group. This is our best bet of the late card.

place4Too SassyML 2/1

Too Sassy opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite, which makes the place-side value proposition interesting — she's likely over-bet, but a 40% career win rate is no joke and Silvio Ruiz Amador is a top-tier pilot. Trainer Sam J. Scolamieri sends her out with a 61.19 rating, third in the field, and she should be competitive at this sprint distance. In exactas, playing Bewitching Joy over Too Sassy at likely short odds still makes mathematical sense.

show1Falling LeavesML 6/1

Falling Leaves at 6/1 is worth a look as the show pick and a trifecta inclusion. Trainer Tom Wenzel saddles her with Carlos Montalvo up, and a 50% career win rate — yes, 50% — is striking, even if her 59.20 rating trails the top pair. Her average speed figure of 55 ties the field's best, and at 6/1 she's a legitimate overlay if the pace scenario sets up for a closer. Sprinkle her in your tris and see what happens.

Race 8

12:34 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a maiden claiming affair at six furlongs where the entire field is still looking for that first career win — our model shows a clear top selection, but the second and third picks offer genuine value for exotic builders.

win4Fae AllannahML 8/5

Fae Allannah tops our TrackWiz model at 89.12 — the highest single-race rating on today's entire card — and opens as the 8/5 morning line chalk. Trainer Victor M. Trujillo puts Kevin E. Orozco aboard, and while her career win percentage sits at zero (she's a maiden, after all), the model suggests she has substantially more ability than anyone else in this field. Her average speed figure of 53 is pedestrian in isolation, but the 89.12 overall rating accounts for much more than raw speed. This is a confident best bet to break her maiden.

place2Leah's LuteML 4/1

Leah's Lute is the most intriguing place play on the card at 4/1 — an 70.96 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this maiden field, posted for trainer Rosie Simkins with Blake Nunnally up. Her average speed figure of 54 actually beats the favorite's 53, suggesting she has legitimate physical tools even if the model sees a gap at the top. At 4/1, she's a strong exacta play underneath Fae Allannah and a legit contender if the chalk stumbles.

show1My ElianaML 3/1

My Eliana rounds out the top three at 3/1 on the morning line with a 57.76 rating and the field's best average speed figure at 55. Trainer Jorge Rosales has two horses in this race, and Adrian Castellanos picks up the mount on the more favored of the two. She's got the raw speed to press the pace or rate off it, and at 3/1 she'll attract public money — use her in trifectas to ensure you're covered if the top two finish in reverse.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Diamond Dee and Wood Ceiling are the free plays we feel best about today, with Wood Ceiling representing a potential overlay at 9/2. The premium card adds five more angles, including Si That Tiger and Fae Allannah — both carrying TrackWiz ratings above 89 — making them horses you want full context on before betting. Subscribers can access the complete breakdown right now. Good luck out there today.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3