Daily Picks

Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — May 25, 2026

Monday, May 25, 20268 racesEmerald Downs

Happy Memorial Day Monday at Emerald Downs, where the Pacific Northwest is doing what it does best — sending a cool, rainy 58-degree afternoon down onto the Auburn oval. Eight races are on the board today, all on a wet dirt surface, and if you know anything about Emerald Downs in the rain, you know the pace scenario and gate speed are going to matter more than ever.

A sealed or sloppy track at Emerald tends to favor horses that can get out clean and control the tempo from the front. We've got a card loaded with claiming and maiden claiming sprints — six of the eight races go 5½ furlongs or less — so pure early speed and a clean break could be the great equalizer today. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and our top-rated pick across those free races is Saleen G T in Race 3, who checks in with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating. We'll break down all three free races below, with full premium analysis on Races 4 through 8 available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where TrackWiz ratings tell a dramatic story — one horse towers over the field on paper despite being a mid-range morning line, while the chalk looks vulnerable.

win3Go PrancealotML 5/1

Go Prancealot (3) is the clear standout on TrackWiz ratings with an 82.13 — more than 23 points clear of the next-best horse in the field. That kind of separation in a maiden claimer is significant. Blake Nunnally gets the call for trainer Jorge Maravilla, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay potential here if the market hasn't caught up to those numbers. The caveat with maiden fields is that 0% career win rates across the board mean raw ability hasn't translated to results yet, but the analytical edge is hard to ignore.

place2Tricky HighwayML 9/5

Tricky Highway (2) opens as the 9/5 morning line favorite, and trainer Frank Lucarelli's horse does post the field's top average speed figure at 56. The public will likely back this one down further, making a straight win bet a thin value proposition — but as a place horse in exotics, the speed profile and public support make it a reliable underneath piece.

show4Roxie's SecretML 7/2

Roxie's Secret (4) sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and matches Tricky Highway with a 56 average speed, making her a legitimate contender to hit the board. Karlo Lopez is a capable rider and trainer David B. Martinez has a solid local presence. At 7/2, she's a natural exotics anchor in the bottom spot of a trifecta.

Race 2

9:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Another maiden claimer with a massive ratings gap at the top, but a hidden 12/1 shot lurking with a surprisingly strong TrackWiz score that could make the exotics very interesting.

win3Count DaliaML 9/2

Count Dalia (3) leads all comers with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating — comfortably clear of the field and working with Alex M. Cruz, one of the more active jockeys on the Emerald Downs circuit. Trainer Patty Leaney puts Count Dalia out at 9/2 on the morning line, which seems like fair value given the analytical edge. In a maiden field where nobody has won yet, the horse with the most complete overall profile deserves to be the top selection.

place5Another LiferML 12/1

Here's the real intrigue — Another Lifer (5) shows a 67.53 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the race, while going off at 12/1 on the morning line. That's a massive disconnect. Trainer James L. Gilmour sends out this horse with Allyssa Morales aboard, and the rating suggests a form cycle the morning line hasn't accounted for. If you're building trifectas or exactas, Another Lifer underneath could be the difference-maker.

show6OregonianML 5/2

Oregonian (6) is the morning line second choice at 5/2 with a 57.5 rating and a 56 average speed figure, giving trainer Faustino Patino and rider Carlos Montalvo a horse that profiles as a pace factor. The public will likely send this one off near the price, which limits win value — but as a show anchor in exotics, the class profile and public backing make it a reasonable hedge.

Race 3

9:46 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short allowance field where the morning line favorite actually isn't the top-rated horse — that mismatch creates a genuine value angle and sets up a compelling exacta.

win2Saleen G TML 5/2

Saleen G T (2) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — a full 12 points ahead of morning line favorite Aloha Breeze — while posting a 60% career win rate, strong credentials for an allowance runner. Trainer Frank Lucarelli gives the call to Isaias D. Enriquez, and the 5/2 morning line represents solid value if the market keeps Aloha Breeze as the chalk. The combination of elite rating, high win percentage, and a competitive average speed of 56 makes Saleen G T our top selection in Race 3.

place1Aloha BreezeML 6/5

Aloha Breeze (1) opens as the 6/5 favorite — and the 63% career win rate explains why. Carlos Montalvo, a regular in the Emerald Downs rider standings, handles this one for trainer Tom Wenzel. The rating of 75.84 is legitimate, just not quite as strong as our top pick, making this horse a near-lock for the place slot and the natural exacta partner to Saleen G T.

show5Stay SassyML 5/1

Stay Sassy (5) at 5/1 brings a 59.12 rating and a 29% career win rate — respectable numbers that suggest this horse fires often enough to hit the board. Kevin Krigger gets the mount for trainer Charles Essex, and in a five-horse field, the third-best horse by our ratings with proven win tendencies is exactly the type you want rounding out a trifecta. At 5/1, the show price should be worth the inclusion.

The free portion of today's card opens with back-to-back maiden claiming sprints before stepping up to an allowance in Race 3 — a nice natural progression that tells a story about how the day sets up. Go Prancealot (Race 1, 5/1 morning line) and Count Dalia (Race 2, 9/2) are our top choices in the opener and nightcap of the free window, both navigating that tricky maiden claiming level where consistency is rare and one good break can be the difference. With rain in the air and a surface that rewards gate-to-wire types, post position and early fractions will be worth watching closely in both races.

Saleen G T is the pick we're most excited about in the free races. Stepping into an allowance field in Race 3, she carries the highest TrackWiz rating of any free-card selection at 87.81 — and that's meaningful on a day when the conditions narrow the margin for error. Allowance runners at a regional track like Emerald on a wet surface often sort out quickly, and our analysis likes her chances to be in front when it matters.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full eight-horse claiming field where the top TrackWiz-rated horse is buried in the program at post position 1 — pace will be heated early with multiple speed types, which could set things up nicely for a stalker.

win1C Her BeautyML 7/2

C Her Beauty (1) leads all horses in this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and posts an average speed figure of 56 — matching the top speed horses in the race. Kevin Krigger climbs aboard for trainer Scott Tubbs, a combination that carries weight at this level. Yes, the 14% career win rate looks modest, but in a claiming field this competitive, a horse with a dominant rating edge and a capable jockey/trainer combo is exactly the profile we back.

place4BakburnerML 5/2

Bakburner (4) is the most accomplished winner in this field on paper — a 33% career win rate is excellent for claiming company, and the 71.23 TrackWiz rating gives Karlo Lopez and trainer Vince Gibson a live contender. The 5/2 morning line reflects that the public agrees. If C Her Beauty gets caught up in any early pace pressure, Bakburner has the win habit to capitalize and finish strongly.

show8Prancing MatildaML 4/1

Prancing Matilda (8) rates third in the field at 68.94 with a 56 average speed and goes off at 4/1. Trainer Joe Toye sends out Silvio Ruiz Amador on a horse that figures to be in or near the pace picture. The 10% career win rate is low, but board hits in claiming races often come from horses with enough speed to stay close — and Prancing Matilda profiles as exactly that type.

Race 5

10:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Olympic Legend dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong claimer, but at a fair price — the real story is a potential 10/1 overlay lurking just behind that could make this exacta very playable.

win6Olympic LegendML 5/2

Olympic Legend (6) posts an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field and a significant margin over the 9/5 morning line favorite Great Runner. Trainer Debbie Peery hands the reins to Kevin Krigger, and while the 13% career win rate won't inspire confidence on its own, it's the overall profile — top rating, solid 55 average speed, 5/2 morning line — that makes this the play. In a seven-horse field at six furlongs, a horse with this kind of rating edge has every right to be on top.

place5Gypsy GunML 10/1

Gypsy Gun (5) is our value play in this race at 10/1 on the morning line. The 64.94 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and a 19% career win rate means trainer Michael Bullene's horse has shown it can get the job done. Carlos Montalvo handles the mount, and if Olympic Legend draws most of the public action, Gypsy Gun could offer significant overlay value in the exacta. This is the kind of horse that shows up at a generous price and makes your ticket.

show3Bad SneakersML 9/2

Bad Sneakers (3) is rated third in the field at 63.77, shows a 20% career win rate — best among the closers — and goes off at a fair 9/2. Trainer Joe Toye and Silvio Ruiz Amador combine on a horse with enough ability to hit the board at a price that won't crush your trifecta payout. The consistent speed figure of 55 across the field makes this a pace-even affair, and Bad Sneakers' win percentage suggests it knows how to compete when it counts.

Race 6

11:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A deep nine-horse claiming field where one horse stands clearly above the rest on TrackWiz ratings — but at 3/1, the real exotic value may come from backing a pair of lightly-regarded horses underneath.

win9Real Good MagicML 3/1

Real Good Magic (9) tops this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the clear standout — and backs it up with the field's best combination of stats: 21% career win rate, a 56 average speed figure, and a 3/1 morning line that reflects genuine public respect. Trainer Alexis Silva-Martinez sends out Silvio Ruiz Amador, a reliable pairing at this level. When you have a horse this far ahead on ratings with a proven win percentage, you make it your anchor.

place4UprightML 6/1

Upright (4) carries a 75.82 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race — and posts a 56 average speed figure, matching the top horses. Kevin Krigger rides for trainer Kendra S. Lyons, who also has Won Bid in this field, showing the stable has confidence in their runners today. The 6/1 morning line on a horse with this kind of rating is solid value for exacta players looking to maximize the payout underneath Real Good Magic.

show1BedrockML 8/1

Bedrock (1) rates third at 65.6 with a 55 average speed and goes off at 8/1 — that's an attractive price for a horse in the top three on our metrics. Talliyah Timentwa rides for trainer Doug A. Carlson, and drawing post 1 in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint can actually be advantageous with a quick-breaking horse. At 8/1, Bedrock makes a compelling trifecta inclusion and offers real value if the top two fight it out up front.

Race 7

11:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A fascinating top-heavy seven-horse claiming sprint where two horses are virtually tied on TrackWiz ratings at the peak, but their morning lines — 3/1 and 4/1 — suggest the market is split and exactas could pay handsomely.

win6Adios JojoML 3/1

Adios Jojo (6) co-leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and, critically, posts the best career win rate among the contenders at 30% — a significant indicator of a horse that translates ability into results. Adrian Castellanos takes the mount for trainer Howard F. Gibson, and the 56 average speed figure ties for top in the race. At 3/1, this is our top selection in Race 7, and the win percentage alone sets it apart from the field.

place1CounteractML 4/1

Counteract (1) is essentially a coin flip with Adios Jojo on the ratings — 85.62 versus 87.08 — but comes in at 4/1 with a 25% career win rate and a consistent 55 average speed. Trainer Mark Cloutier sends out Silvio Ruiz Amador on what figures to be a pace-pressing type from post 1. If you're building an exacta, reversing Counteract and Adios Jojo is a smart play given how close these two profile.

show7BaladiML 5/2

Baladi (7) rates a distant third at 59.08 but brings a 56 average speed — matching the top horses — and opens at 5/2, which suggests the morning line maker sees more here than the ratings do. Pablo E. Castillo rides for Michael Puhich, and from post 7 in a six-furlong sprint, there's pace scenario upside if the inside horses get into a speed duel early. At 5/2, Baladi is a natural show ticket and an interesting exacta underneath.

Race 8

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale stretches to six-and-a-half furlongs — the longest race on the card — and features a tightly clustered group of rated contenders where the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse, creating a classic value situation.

win7HakuhiaML 7/2

Hakuhia (7) leads all runners with an 81.25 TrackWiz rating, and Frank T. Alvarado gets the mount for trainer Steve Fisher. The 7/2 morning line is fair given the competition, but what stands out is the rating edge — Hakuhia clears the second-best horse by more than a point in a very competitive field. The 55 average speed figure holds up at the added distance, and six-and-a-half furlongs at Emerald Downs should suit a horse that rates this well overall.

place1SavitaML 8/1

Savita (1) is a fascinating angle here — an 8/1 morning line on a horse with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the race. Kevin Krigger rides for trainer Alan Bozell, and while no career win percentage data is available, the raw rating suggests a horse capable of competing at this level. At 8/1, if the public ignores Savita in favor of the shorter-priced horses, this could be a significant overlay in the exacta.

show5Can'tdealwithitML 5/2

Can'tdealwithit (5) sits third in the ratings at 78.17 with the field's best career win rate at 22% — a horse that knows how to close out races. Alex M. Cruz rides for the Jorge Rosales barn, which is active throughout today's card. The 5/2 morning line makes a straight win bet modest in value, but as a show horse in trifectas, a 22% career winner with a top-three rating in a competitive closer's race is exactly the profile you want in the bottom slot.

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Bottom line for today: wet dirt, short sprints, and a card that rewards homework. Go Prancealot, Count Dalia, and Saleen G T are your free best bets, with Saleen G T standing out as the top-rated pick of the three free races. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and analysis on all eight races including Olympic Legend and Real Good Magic — subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there, and enjoy the racing.

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