Delta Downs Picks & Predictions — November 12, 2026

Gem Sauce slots in second on TrackWiz ratings at 66.52 and brings a solid workout resume to back it up — she ranked second in recent race speed at 12.84 sec/furlong and also second in workouts over the past month at 12.45. She's placed in two of four dirt starts, which is respectable in this maiden company. Carlos Perez has a 19% win rate over the past year, adding a competent rider to a horse that fits the place role comfortably.

Esken for Sarah ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 54.17 and brings a clean B-grade jockey in Chris R. Rosier to the table for trainer Brett A. Brinkman. She didn't place in her most recent start, which is a mild concern, but she's priced at 9/2 on the morning line in a race where the favorite is likely to be bet down significantly. If you're building a trifecta underneath Ocean's Appeal, she's a reasonable third wheel.

Julia's Warrior sits second in TrackWiz ratings at 84.19 and owns an impressive 10-win, 25-of-42 record on dirt, plus Harry Hernandez in the irons — that jockey has posted a 22% win rate and 57% in-the-money mark over the past year. The concerns are real: she's placed in just one of four starts at Delta Downs, and at six years old she may be past her peak. Still, her 21.46% simulation share makes her a legitimate place threat.

Baron of the Nile brings the most compelling distance profile of the three picks — two wins and a 6-for-6 in-the-money record at 6.5 furlongs, which is exactly today's distance. His third-ranked recent race speed at 12.42 sec/furlong slots him right between the top two in this race. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's solid show value and a smart trifecta include given his track-specific form at this distance.

Cinco Blake is the value play in this field at 12/1 on the morning line, sitting second in TrackWiz ratings at 73.09 and posting the fastest recent race speed figure in the entire field at 12.46 sec/furlong. For trainer Henry West Jr., he's also ridden by Jose Luis Rodriguez, who carries a solid B+ jockey grade. The claiming price jump from $10K to $25K is a concern, but that speed figure is too good to ignore for exotics.

H Q Wilson comes in third in our ratings at 63.03 and brings the top jockey in the race to the gate — Harry Hernandez has won at a 22% clip with a 57% in-the-money mark over the past year. His workout resume is sharp, ranking second in the field over the past month at 12.35 sec/furlong. The knock is a rough recent run — he's failed to place in his last three — and the claiming price climbed from $16K to $25K, which raises the bar. But Hernandez's ability to get horses home makes this a reasonable show ticket.

Wholelottadeal earned this spot the hard way — he won last time out on August 29 and leads the field with the fastest recent race speed at 12.14 sec/furlong. He's placed in three of six dirt starts and shows a 28% career win rate. The negatives are the claiming price jump from $5K to $10K, which is a step up in class, and jockey Julio Ramirez Jr.'s 6% win rate is a cold number. But that speed figure is legitimate and hard to dismiss.

Go Get Trae comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1, which may be a touch generous given she's placed in just one of her last six starts and has gone four straight without hitting the board. The class drop from $15K to $10K and a sharp workout — ranking first in the field over the past month at 12.45 sec/furlong — are encouraging signs of a turnaround setting up. Harry Hernandez's 22% win rate keeps the upside alive, and she's worth including in the show slot as a bounce-back candidate.

Underhill's Tab is a natural backup here with the top recent race speed figure in the field at 12.34 sec/furlong and a 46% career in-the-money mark. The Casey Fusilier / Allen Landry jockey-trainer tandem is the best in this race — 32% win rate and 66% in-the-money over the past year — and Tab has placed in each of his last two. The claim price bump from $12,500 to $15K and his age are mild headwinds, but form and connections make him a confident place play.

Caught Off Guard brings a tidy form cycle to the table — he's placed in four of his last six starts and four consecutive, which is as consistent as it gets in a claiming field. Harry Hernandez at a 22% win rate over the past year is a plus, and his TrackWiz rating of 57.68 is respectable. The price increase from $10K to $15K is a flag, but steady recent form and a solid jockey make him a natural trifecta include.

Spicy Mustard is the closest challenger, rated 81.4 on TrackWiz — second in the field — and posting the fastest recent race speed number here at 12.56 sec/furlong, a hair quicker than Dragon Navy. She also dropped down in class from $10K to $5K, so both top picks are getting a class break. The concern is she's listed as meaningfully older than the field average, which can matter in sprint maidens. Trainer Lee Thomas earns an A- grade and the data supports a confident place ticket.

Run the Street sits third in TrackWiz ratings at 67.84 and owns a solid 40% in-the-money career mark in this maiden company. Jockey Emanuel Nieves brings a B grade and trainer William B. Thomas rounds out a respectable connections package. The concern worth noting is some weak workout times logged over the past month — she'll need to show up sharper on race day, but at 9/2 on the morning line she's priced correctly as a show play in a wide field.