Daily Picks

Delta Downs Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

July 11, 202610 racesAll Delta Downs picks

This card ran on July 11, 2026.

Best bets at Delta Downs, July 11, 2026

Race 17Lm Jess a LadyML 7/27:15 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 8 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 10, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Last 30 days at Delta Downs: our top pick won 17 of 68 races (25%) and finished in the money in 35.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

It's a big Saturday at Delta Downs with a loaded 10-race card featuring five Stakes events, two Derbies, and a Futurity — all run on the dirt under partly cloudy skies with temperatures climbing to 88°F in Lake Charles. This is a quarter horse-heavy program packed with short-field speed duels, and the heat could play a factor in late-race stamina, particularly in the longer 870-yard opener of the stakes sequence.

From the maiden sprint in Race 1 all the way through the 350-yard Futurity finale, today's card rewards bettors who understand pace dynamics and gate speed. With stakes-level competition across most of the card, the talent pool is sharp — and so is the value if you know where to look.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:15 PM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint over 400 yards where TrackWiz ratings separate three legitimate contenders from the rest of a green field — but with no prior starts to dissect, this one lives and dies on your confidence in the numbers.

win7Lm Jess a LadyML 7/2

Lm Jess a Lady tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field with an 86.35, and trainer Levi Mays hands the mount to Arturo Alvarez, a pairing worth noting in a wide-open maiden heat. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's not a chalk play but not a generous price either — she's simply the most credentialed runner by our model in a race where every horse is making their debut. In a 400-yard dash where there's zero margin for a slow break, her edge in raw rating may be all the separation she needs.

place4Is Leavin HotML 5/1

Is Leavin Hot (No. 4) slots in as our place pick with a rating of 83.20, nearly matching the top of the field. Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara puts up Juan Francisco Garcia, Jr. aboard, and the 5/1 morning line offers a touch of value if she fires second-best. In a short-format race like 400 yards, the top two rated horses often fill the top two spots — and her number supports exactly that outcome.

show8Gold Eye EagleML 2/1

Gold Eye Eagle drew the morning-line favorite billing at 2/1 despite a TrackWiz rating (76.95) that puts her third in the field. Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez and jockey Humberto Vital bring experience to a maiden race that lacks it elsewhere, and that stable confidence likely explains the short odds. She's a solid show anchor in exacta and trifecta construction even if she can't quite match the top two on raw numbers.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:40 PM EDT

Stakes · 870 yd · Dirt

A stakes sprint at 870 yards where the heavy morning-line favorite looks dominant on paper, but a pair of David Bustamante trainees lurk underneath and could make the exotics interesting.

win1One Fast CajunML 7/5

One Fast Cajun is the standout of the card in Race 2 — a 89.42 TrackWiz rating backed by a 51% career win rate, numbers that scream class above this field. Shane Ladner puts Ubaldo Luna aboard, and at 7/5 on the morning line, the market agrees with our model. In a stakes field where the next-best runner (Explosive Legend) rates more than 13 points behind, this looks like a spot where the favorite earns their keep. The only real risk is if the longer 870-yard distance exposes any weakness late.

place5Explosive LegendML 4/1

Explosive Legend (No. 5) carries a 76.36 rating and a 31% career win rate — credible numbers for a place ticket. Trainer David Bustamante is doubled up in this race with Ruse Hint, which can be a signal that connections know the horse is live. Donell Blake gets the mount, and at 4/1, there's enough upside to make Explosive Legend a natural underneath One Fast Cajun in exactas.

show6Ruse HintML 3/1

Ruse Hint (No. 6) is Bustamante's second entry and rates just a hair below Explosive Legend at 73.85. The 20% career win rate is the weakest of the top three, but the trainer's familiarity with this runner — and the stable's overall presence in this race — makes Ruse Hint worth including for show and trifecta purposes at 3/1.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and there's genuine interest in all of them. Lm Jess a Lady opens the card in the 400-yard maiden at 7/2 on the morning line — that's a price we're comfortable taking on a horse our models rate at 86.35. In Race 2, One Fast Cajun draws the most attention of the free selections: a Stakes runner at 870 yards, morning-lined at 7/5, and carrying an 89.42 TrackWiz rating that leads the entire day's card. Don't let the short price scare you off — at stakes level, class matters. Race 3 brings another Stakes at the ultra-short 300-yard trip, where Pilot Point Train matches One Fast Cajun's 89.42 rating at the same 7/5 morning line. Two horses sharing the day's top rating in back-to-back races is not something you see every day.

One thing to watch across all three free races: the 88-degree heat and dry Louisiana afternoon set up a fast, consistent surface. Gate breaks will be decisive at these short distances — any horse with a history of stumbling out of the gate becomes a significant risk regardless of talent.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

8:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 300 yd · Dirt

A 300-yard stakes bullet with a standout favorite leading the way, but Shining Fire and a surprising win-rate angle from Seperate Parish make this more than a one-horse show in the exotics.

win2Pilot Point TrainML 7/5

Pilot Point Train tops the TrackWiz model with a 89.42 rating and backs it up with a 35% career win rate — the kind of profile that earns the 7/5 morning-line spot in a stakes sprint. Trainer Leonard W. Phillips Jr. puts Humberto Vital on board, and 300 yards is about as quick as it gets — first jump, first advantage. When a horse this highly rated draws into a short field with this kind of back class, you don't overthink it.

place4Shining FireML 3/1

Shining Fire (No. 4) posts a 31% career win rate and a solid 67.74 TrackWiz rating, ranking her clearly second in our model behind the favorite. Leonardo Rodriguez, one of the more active jockeys on the Delta Downs circuit, has the call for trainer Jesus Huitron Lira. At 3/1, Shining Fire is a natural place play and a key underneath horse in exactas.

show1The Star in MeML 4/1

The Star in Me (No. 1) is rated 58.71 and carries a 16% career win rate, which doesn't jump off the page — but trainer Andre Brooks and jockey Luis Angel Flores Garcia have a live runner at 4/1 if the top two set each other up. She's the kind of show-ticket horse who quietly runs into the money when the chalk and second choice do the heavy lifting in front.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

8:30 PM EDT

Stakes · 330 yd · Dirt

A loaded 330-yard stakes with three horses rated 80-plus and a tight morning line separating the top contenders — this is the kind of race where the trifecta payoff could reward smart ticket construction.

win6Marcys Fast TrainML 7/2

Marcys Fast Train (No. 6) leads our model with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate, and trainer Vann E. Haywood puts Federico Vargas aboard at a morning line of 7/2. In a field this competitive, the edge at the top of the ratings often proves decisive over 330 yards where there's no time to make up ground. She's our top choice and the anchor of any vertical ticket in this race.

place7San Lorenzo PrincessML 3/1

San Lorenzo Princess (No. 7) is a fascinating place play — a 36% career win rate is the second-highest among the top contenders, and her TrackWiz rating of 82.08 makes her a genuine threat to win outright. Trainer Juan C. Garcia sends Arturo Alvarez out at 3/1, and the combination of career consistency and raw rating puts San Lorenzo Princess firmly in exacta consideration on top and underneath Marcys Fast Train.

show3Jrs Jeeses CartelML 4/1

Jrs Jeeses Cartel (No. 3) is another Bustamante runner with a 33% career win rate and an 80.62 rating — close enough to the top of this field to land a piece. Randy Edison Jr. takes the mount, and at 4/1, the value is there for a horse that rates third in our model in a race where three horses could legitimately hit the board. Don't leave him off trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

8:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 440 yd · Dirt

Dropping Dimes looks like a class above in this 440-yard stakes, but Paint Me Onis and a sneaky San Lorenzo Luna offer enough fire underneath to keep the exotics from being a formality.

win6Dropping DimesML 2/1

Dropping Dimes (No. 6) is the most compelling win play on the card today — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating combined with a 47% career win rate is elite-level profile for a race like this. Trainer Josue Ponce taps Jorge Javier Garcia, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the market's respect for this horse. Over 440 yards, that burst of early efficiency becomes a weapon, and Dropping Dimes has shown the ability to deliver consistently.

place7Paint Me OnisML 3/1

Paint Me Onis (No. 7) checks in with a 79.43 rating and a 42% career win rate, the second-best mark in the field among our picks. Trainer Joseph D. Manucy and Bobby Ransom team up at 3/1, and that win percentage is legitimately impressive — this is a horse that fires regularly and won't be far from the top at the wire. A natural place play and a strong exacta partner with Dropping Dimes.

show5San Lorenzo LunaML 8/1

San Lorenzo Luna (No. 5) is the value angle here at 8/1 morning line — a 62.24 rating and a 35% career win rate are both strong enough to suggest she'll hit the board at a price. Trainer Juan C. Garcia pairs with Leonardo Rodriguez, and San Lorenzo Luna's win percentage puts her ahead of several lower-rated horses going off at shorter odds. She's a live show play and a trifecta sweetener worth including.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

9:20 PM EDT

Stakes · 220 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 220-yard stakes with ten runners and a top rating separated from the morning-line favorite — the pace will be a blur and the board could surprise, making this an exotic player's race.

win8Konnan CartelML 3/1

Konnan Cartel (No. 8) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this race at 83.75 and backs it with a 41% career win rate that stands among the strongest in the field. Trainer Santiago Villaseca sends Jorge Javier Garcia out at 3/1, and over just 220 yards — roughly ten seconds of racing — the horse with the highest composite rating often just blows the field away before anyone can react. Konnan Cartel is our most confident selection in this race.

place6Lm President CartelML 8/1

Lm President Cartel (No. 6) is a genuine value play at 8/1 morning line — a 79.79 TrackWiz rating and a 37% career win rate are numbers that should command shorter odds. Trainer Luis R. Martinez, Jr. runs two horses in this race and clearly has strong representation, with Eddi Emanuel Martinez in the irons. If Konnan Cartel wins this, Lm President Cartel has the profile to be running right behind.

show3Carry On MoonML 5/2

Carry On Moon (No. 3) is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and rates 74.48 in our model — third in the field. David Bustamante's runner with Rolando Cabrera aboard has a 16% career win rate that doesn't scream dominance, but the short price suggests the stable is confident. She's a natural show anchor and a safe underneath player in trifectas if Konnan Cartel fires as expected.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

9:45 PM EDT

Derby · 400 yd · Dirt

A 400-yard Derby with a heavy morning-line favorite that looks hard to beat on paper, but two live 6/1 shots underneath make the place and show slots genuinely competitive.

win5Mamma Im Leaving YouML 3/5

Mamma Im Leaving You (No. 5) is the shortest-priced horse on the card today at 3/5, and the numbers back up that billing — an 83.81 TrackWiz rating paired with a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate. Trainer Jose U. Lopez puts Noe Castaneda up, and you're not going to find a better win-rate profile in this field. In a Derby, experience and class consistency matter, and this horse delivers both. Lay the price if you must — this is one of the more reliable win plays of the evening.

place6Jess Another MorninML 6/1

Jess Another Mornin (No. 6) rates 82.71 and carries a 36% career win rate — nearly as strong as the favorite across both metrics. Trainer Danny Hoda taps Rene Hernandez at 6/1, which looks like genuine overlay given how close this horse is to Mamma Im Leaving You on our model. This is a horse that could win the race outright; the place ticket is simply the safer way to play a horse with this profile at these odds.

show7Marcy Train BML 6/1

Marcy Train B (No. 7) brings a 78.17 rating and a 28% career win rate to a Derby field where most runners are well under that threshold. Trainer Josue Ponce pairs with Jorge Javier Garcia at 6/1, and this looks like another live longshot-ish price in a race where the chalk is extremely heavy. Marcy Train B is a solid trifecta piece and a show bet worth considering at the price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

10:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 350 yd · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse stakes field at 350 yards where Conair Cartel is head and shoulders above the field on both rating and career win percentage — but a wide field over a short sprint always carries upset potential.

win7Conair CartelML 3/1

Conair Cartel (No. 7) is the most dominant-looking horse in any race today outside of the Derby — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating is impressive enough, but it's the 80% career win rate that truly sets this horse apart in a 12-runner field. Trainer Santiago Villaseca sends Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. aboard at 3/1 morning line, and those odds may actually be generous given how much Conair Cartel outpaces this competition on class. This horse is the cornerstone of any ticket structure in Race 8.

place8WhoozthatladyML 5/1

Whoozthatlady (No. 8) checks in at 72.44 on our model and a 33% career win rate — second-best in the field behind Conair Cartel. Trainer Kenneth L. Roberts, Sr. runs multiple horses in this race, but Pedro Chavarria Espinosa gets the call here at 5/1. That win percentage at 5/1 represents real value in a field where many runners have spotty records, and Whoozthatlady has the consistency to land a piece of the purse.

show10Hollie Lou YaML 8/1

Hollie Lou Ya (No. 10) rates 66.44 with a 25% career win rate, and trainer Viviane Hill sends out Leonardo Rodriguez at 8/1 morning line. She's not the flashiest pick, but in a chaotic 12-horse sprint, horses with steady win rates and reliable profiles tend to find the board while longer shots scramble. Hollie Lou Ya is a sound show play and a trifecta inclusion at an overlay price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 9

10:35 PM EDT

Derby · 400 yd · Dirt

A 400-yard Derby where the top two horses are separated by less than two rating points but the morning-line gap is significant — sharp bettors will want to weigh Valiant Heart Z's dominant win rate against San Lorenzo Bossman's value potential.

win5Valiant Heart ZML 8/5

Valiant Heart Z (No. 5) leads our model with an 88.30 TrackWiz rating and a sterling 50% career win rate — half of all career starts have ended in a victory, which is an elite mark in quarter horse racing. Trainer Santiago Villaseca deploys Jorge Javier Garcia, and the 8/5 morning line reflects a market that has identified the standout. In a 10-horse Derby at 400 yards, a horse with this win rate and top rating is a hard lean for the win ticket.

place3San Lorenzo BossmanML 3/1

San Lorenzo Bossman (No. 3) is legitimately close to the favorite at 87.08 — just 1.22 rating points separating the top two — and his 37% career win rate is nothing to dismiss. Trainer Juan C. Garcia and Leonardo Rodriguez combine at 3/1, which gives bettors genuine value if you believe the gap between these two is smaller than the morning line suggests. He's our place pick and a legitimate exacta threat to reverse the order on the right break.

show8Stay in the FastlaneML 8/1

Stay in the Fastlane (No. 8) offers an interesting angle at 8/1 — a 37% career win rate ties for second-best in the race among our picks, and trainer Vann E. Haywood sends out Federico Vargas with clear intentions. The 68.82 rating puts him a step below the top pair but well clear of the bottom half of the field. At 8/1, he's a show play with enough upside to make trifecta inclusion easy.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 10

11:00 PM EDT

Futurity · 350 yd · Dirt

The Futurity closes out the card with a deep 12-horse field and some eye-popping career win percentages — Rdd Reasons for B leads the ratings, but Vigilanty's 75% career win rate and Conair Cartel's 80% make this a race where the numbers get complicated fast.

win3Rdd Reasons for BML 7/2

Rdd Reasons for B (No. 3) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this Futurity at 86.35 and carries a 66% career win rate — one of the strongest win-rate-to-rating combinations on the card today. Trainer Juan C. Garcia taps Leonardo Rodriguez, one of the most active jockeys in this meet, and at 7/2 morning line the value is reasonable for a horse this far ahead on our model in a big field. In a 12-runner Futurity at 350 yards, getting a top-rated horse at this price is a spot worth attacking.

place4VigilantyML 3/1

Vigilanty (No. 4) is a fascinating puzzle — a 75% career win rate is extraordinary, and yet our model has him rated 82.46, nearly four points below Rdd Reasons for B. Trainer Josue Ponce runs two horses in this race and puts Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. aboard Vigilanty at 3/1. That win rate suggests a horse who fires consistently and rarely misses the board — exactly the profile you want underneath a top-rated runner in a Futurity exotic.

show12Conair CartelML 6/1

Conair Cartel (No. 12) enters this Futurity off what looks like a busy schedule and draws program number 12 in a wide field — but the 80% career win rate and 73.92 TrackWiz rating are too hard to ignore at 6/1. Trainer Santiago Villaseca again goes with Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr., who also rides Vigilanty — note that jockey conflict may result in a change, so watch the late scratches and jockey changes before wagering. At 6/1 with an 80% career win rate, any ticket without Conair Cartel in the show slot is leaving value on the table.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Delta Downs is cooking today — literally and figuratively. The free card alone gives you two 89-rated Stakes horses and a maiden value play to kick things off. But with five more Stakes, two Derbies, and a Futurity on the back end, the real action is in the full card. Top plays to circle: One Fast Cajun in Race 2, Pilot Point Train in Race 3, and Valiant Heart Z in the Race 9 Derby for premium subscribers. Full analysis is live for TrackWiz subscribers — grab it before post time.

← All Delta Downs picks & predictions