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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026

September 24, 20268 racesAll Delaware Park picks

Delaware Park is open for business on a crisp Thursday afternoon, with partly-cloudy skies and a comfortable 63°F keeping conditions honest. That kind of cool, dry weather typically plays it straight — no heat-soaked cuppy surfaces, no surprise speed-favoring bias from a recent rain. Eight races, all on the dirt, all asking you to do your homework.

The card spans a nice mix of claiming races, maiden events, and a pair of allowance-level tests that should draw some of the better horses on the grounds. Whether you're looking for a straightforward win bet or building toward a Pick 4, there's plenty of meat to chew on today.

Our TrackWiz ratings have been crunched, the pace scenarios mapped out, and three top picks are free to every reader right here. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear class standout tops the opener, but the morning-line favorite faces a legitimate challenger from the 9/5 second choice — watch for a contested early pace that could set up late closers.

win2Back Wall BanditML 3/2

Back Wall Bandit is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.27 — more than 13 points clear of the next best. A 23% career win rate is elite company at this level, and the 3/2 morning line reflects the confidence the morning-line maker has in this horse. Jockey Jaime Rodriguez gets the call for trainer Michael V. Simone, a pairing worth following at Delaware. At a mile on the dirt, the pace scenario should set up perfectly for a horse with this kind of profile.

place4Pippa's NoncentsML 9/5

Pippa's Noncents at 9/5 is no slouch — an 18% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 76.33 give her legitimate win equity, and Paco Lopez in the irons is always a positive in a spot like this. She figures to be forwardly placed and could press the favorite into a potential duel, which means she almost certainly hits the board even in a losing effort. Good place play if the 3/2 shot shortens further at the windows.

show7CheeseML 4/1

Cheese is an interesting exotic inclusion at 4/1 with a solid 73.12 rating and trainer Jose A. Ramirez — who also saddles the longshot Tapwrit Warrior — clearly having a strong hand in this race. The 10% career win figure understates the ability here given the rating, and Emanuel Rosario is a capable pilot. In an eight-horse dirt mile where pace pressure could build up front, a horse sitting just off the pace at this price makes a nice show bet or part of a wide exacta.

Race 2

5:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lastchance Romance looks like the lone standout in a six-horse sprint, carrying the top speed figures and a big ratings edge — but the Michael V. Simone barn has two runners here, so pace dynamics could get interesting early.

win6Lastchance RomanceML 5/2

Lastchance Romance is as dominant on paper as you'll see in a claiming sprint — a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, a 27% career win percentage, and an average speed figure of 56 that leads this field outright. Trainer Erin C. McClellan puts Inoel Beato in the irons, and the 5/2 morning line is honest given the edge this horse has. At six furlongs on the dirt, that kind of early pace advantage rarely gets squandered — this is a strong top selection.

place4Sister CarlieML 9/5

Sister Carlie is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and carries a 21% career win rate, so she's no throwaway — but the TrackWiz model has her slightly behind Lastchance Romance at 67.14. Trainer Michael V. Simone also has Miss Serafina in here, meaning the barn could split the pari-mutuel pool on its two entries. Francisco Martinez rides, and the matching avg speed of 54 suggests Sister Carlie can match strides with most of the field. A solid place play if the favorite's odds hold.

show2Nit WitnessML 5/2

Nit Witness checks in at 64.83 on the TrackWiz scale with a 16% career win rate and the same avg speed figure of 54 as the morning-line favorite. Paco Lopez takes the mount for the Simone barn, and this horse profiles as the kind that sits stalker and pounces if the pace collapses. At 5/2, the price is fair, and including Nit Witness in your trifecta combinations makes sense in a race where the top two are closely matched.

Race 3

5:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Santinni brings a big TrackWiz rating edge into a one-mile claiming battle, but the betting market has narrowed the field with a trio of single-digit morning-line horses — pace figures to be honest with multiple contenders wanting to go forward.

win2SantinniML 7/2

Santinni is the standout here, posting an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 37% career win rate — that win percentage is exceptional at the claiming level and suggests a horse that consistently delivers when conditions are right. Paco Lopez, one of the more dependable jockeys in the Mid-Atlantic circuit, takes the mount for trainer Greg Compton. The 7/2 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse with these credentials going a route at a mile on the dirt.

place6Winston WolfML 2/1

Winston Wolf is listed at 2/1 on the morning line — actually the shortest price in the race — yet our rating of 75.98 slots him behind Santinni. That gap matters. Still, a 13% win rate with Emanuel Rosario aboard for Monica McGoey is a solid combination, and this horse's avg speed of 54 matches Santinni stride for stride. If Santinni gets into any trouble, Winston Wolf is perfectly positioned to pick up the pieces.

show1King of HollywoodML 6/1

King of Hollywood opens at 6/1 and holds a 71.72 TrackWiz rating — respectable enough to land exotics coverage. A 24% career win rate is legitimately strong, and Jesus M. Rios gets the assignment for trainer Blake Kelly. Sitting in post one at a mile, this horse could get a stalking trip just off the leaders and be dangerous late if the pace heats up between the top two. A worthwhile show or trifecta piece at the price.

The first three races on the card are all claiming routes or sprints on the main track, and TrackWiz analysis gives you a top pick in each one. Back Wall Bandit opens the day as our highest-rated free selection (89.27) going a flat mile in Race 1 — morning-line favorite at 3/2, but the rating says the chalk is justified. In Race 2, Lastchance Romance gets the nod in the six-furlong sprint at 5/2 on the morning line, a solid value spot if the pace sets up the way we project. Round out the free card with Santinni in Race 3, a 7/2 morning-line shot at a mile with an 86.35 rating that suggests there's room to beat the short prices in the field.

The cool temperatures today should help closers conserve energy late, but in these lower-level claiming races the pace can get hot early regardless — watch for horses that can settle just off the speed and pounce in the stretch. All three free picks fit that profile to some degree, which is a thread worth noting as you build your wagers.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:25 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This Starter Allowance sprint features a clear top-rated contender at a fair price, but the 8/5 favorite Bold Diversion makes the market tighter than the TrackWiz ratings might suggest — a pace duel up front could play into a closer's hands.

win2Pride's PrinceML 3/1

Pride's Prince leads this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 38% career win rate — numbers that stand out in any company. Trainer Greg Compton sends him out at 3/1, and Paco Lopez is the perfect pilot for a horse with this kind of back class. The avg speed figure of 55 matches the best in the field, and in a six-furlong Starter Allowance, a horse with this combination of win rate and rating almost always belongs at or near the top of the key list.

place1J D FactorML 9/2

J D Factor is an interesting place play at 9/2 — a 22% career win rate and 76.21 TrackWiz rating for trainer Timothy C. Kreiser suggest a horse that consistently competes without always grabbing the brass ring. Angel R. Rodriguez takes the mount, and the avg speed of 53 in a field where several others post 55 and 56 means this horse may need to sit just off the pace and make a sustained run. That's a profile that often yields strong place and show numbers.

show5Bold DiversionML 8/5

Bold Diversion is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 but our ratings have her third at 74.52 — that's a horse whose price may not reflect the actual hierarchy on paper. Forest Boyce gets the call for Joanne Shankle, and a 24% career win rate is nothing to dismiss. The top avg speed figure in the field at 56 means she can control the tempo if she wants it, but if the pace is contested, fading into the show hole is a very realistic outcome. She's a solid show anchor in your exotics.

Race 5

7:01 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of maidens going a route at a mile — with several first-time starters or horses showing zeroes in the win column — makes this one of the most wide-open races on the card; trainer and jockey credentials carry extra weight when past performance is thin.

win9Bourbon N MusicML 12/1

Bourbon N Music is the TrackWiz top pick at 65.22 despite a 12/1 morning line — and that's a meaningful gap worth exploiting. Trainer Anthony Pecoraro puts Martina Rojas in the irons, and with an avg speed figure of 53 in a field where many first-timers haven't posted a figure at all, there's tangible experience on the clock here. In Maiden Special Weight routes, horses with at least one measured work or race showing tend to outperform expectations, and this one's price makes it a genuine value play. At 12/1, the overlay potential is real.

place3Mega MoxieML 3/1

Mega Moxie is the morning-line third choice at 3/1 and posts a 56.67 TrackWiz rating — strong enough to be in the mix. Trainer Erin C. McClellan, who also saddles Lastchance Romance earlier on the card, is a barn worth following when they show up in maiden routes. Inoel Beato takes the mount, and the avg speed of 51 might not jump off the page, but the trainer angle here is the real story. Solid place coverage in what figures to be a chaotic maiden scramble.

show5Atlantic PearlML 4/1

Atlantic Pearl draws Paco Lopez for trainer Michael Stidham — and that pairing alone warrants inclusion in any exotic ticket. A 55.00 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 54 rank her among the more experienced-looking entrants in this field. Stidham is a respected conditioner whose maiden runners often improve sharply second out, and a 4/1 morning line for Lopez's mount in a MSW suggests the connections believe they have a live one. Good show anchor and a key in your trifecta.

Race 6

7:39 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Surprise Package opens as the even-money choice and dominates the TrackWiz ratings — this looks like a short-field spot where the favorite is meant to deliver, but there's intriguing underneath value at 8/1.

win1Surprise PackageML EVN

Surprise Package owns an 88.20 TrackWiz rating and a 36% career win rate — two figures that scream 'best horse in the field' in a six-runner Starter Optional Claiming route. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell sends out Jaime Rodriguez, and even at even money, the metrics back the short price. At 1 mile 70 yards on the dirt, a horse with this kind of class and a high win rate is exactly the type you want to build your ticket around. Don't overthink it here.

place4LeonidsML 8/1

Leonids is the place pick at 8/1 and holds a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest in the race by a meaningful margin. Trainer Jonathaniel Badillo-Casado sends out Marvin Fernandez, and a 21% career win rate in a spot like this is solid. The avg speed of 54 leads the field alongside the favorite, suggesting Leonids can keep pace with the top horse and likely runs second if Surprise Package is as good as advertised. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is legitimate overlay territory for the place pool.

show3Seeking UnityML 12/1

Seeking Unity ties Skimble Shanks with a 63.16 TrackWiz rating but holds a clear edge in career win percentage at 22% versus 14%. Jesus M. Rios takes the mount for Jonathan Maldonado, and the 12/1 price makes this a genuinely attractive show play or trifecta piece. In a small field where the top two are closely matched, the third finisher often comes from the next cluster — and Seeking Unity's experience profile fits that bill nicely.

Race 7

8:09 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The TrackWiz model disagrees sharply with the morning-line market in this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint — the top-rated horse opens at 8/1 while the 2/1 favorite ranks fourth in our ratings, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win6MuntageML 8/1

Muntage is flagged as the top pick at a 79.79 TrackWiz rating yet opens at 8/1 — that's the kind of ratings-to-odds discrepancy that gets our attention every time. Trainer Todd M. Beattie sends out Jomar Torres, and a 20% career win rate in allowance company shows this horse has run competitively against similar foes. The avg speed of 54 is respectable in this sprint field, and if the pace gets hot between the morning-line favorites, Muntage is perfectly set up to sweep past a tiring field late.

place1Lundi LootML 9/2

Lundi Loot checks in with a 73.53 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 56 — the top figure in this field — which tells you this horse has the raw foot to compete even if the career win rate of 6% looks modest. Trainer Lynn A. Ashby has Jose A. Batista in the irons, and a horse with a top speed figure that doesn't translate into wins often signals a consistent runner that hits the board at a higher rate than the win column shows. At 9/2, the place price should be generous.

show3CaseofthemondaysML 3/1

Caseofthemondays sits third in our ratings at 71.63 and goes for the well-regarded Jamie Ness barn with Jaime Rodriguez — a combination that consistently delivers at Delaware. An 8% career win rate might seem light, but the avg speed of 54 and the class of the connections suggest this horse is capable of a fast-closing run in a pace-honest six-furlong sprint. At 3/1, the show price won't be juicy, but this is a reliable trifecta anchor.

Race 8

8:44 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Chappelle dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming sprint but opens at 2/1 — the real story is whether the double-digit longshot Rebellution can spring an upset and offer serious exotic value.

win4ChappelleML 2/1

Chappelle is the clear standout here with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse in Race 8 and a figure that dwarfs the competition in what is ultimately a maiden claiming field. Jamie Ness is one of the sharpest trainers at Delaware Park, and Emanuel Rosario gets the assignment in what looks like a well-timed spot. The avg speed of 55 is among the best in the field, and at 2/1 the market is respecting this horse — rightfully so. Hard to make a case against.

place5RebellutionML 10/1

Rebellution at 10/1 is the value play in this race — a 57.98 TrackWiz rating is the second-highest in the field by a clear margin, and trainer Jack Abrams sends out Francisco Martinez in what looks like a live longshot scenario. The avg speed of 53 is mid-pack, but in a maiden claiming sprint where several horses have no published figures, any consistent clocker has an edge. If Chappelle hits any traffic or gets beat at the gate, Rebellution has the profile to grab the place spot. Good exotic inclusion at the price.

show1MesopotamiaML 4/1

Mesopotamia opens at 4/1 for trainer Michael V. Pino with Jaime Rodriguez in the irons — and a 55.00 TrackWiz rating puts this horse third in the field. There's no avg speed figure on record, which adds uncertainty, but a first-time or lightly-raced runner in maiden claiming can outrun expectations when the trainer and jockey combo is strong. Rodriguez has been active throughout this card, and Pino clearly has a well-intended runner here. A sensible show play or trifecta piece in an unpredictable spot.

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Today's Delaware Park card is a solid Thursday slate with legitimate value hiding in the premium races — especially at those double-digit morning-line prices in Races 5 and 7. Top plays for free-card readers are Back Wall Bandit, Lastchance Romance, and Santinni. For everything else, subscribers have the full analysis waiting. Good luck out there, and as always — manage your bankroll and trust the process.

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