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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026

September 23, 20268 racesAll Delaware Park picks

Welcome to Delaware Park on Wednesday, September 23rd. Eight races on the dirt today under a cloudy sky and a comfortable 65°F — the kind of mild fall afternoon that can keep a track surface consistent and honest all day long. No rain in the forecast means we're not expecting any dramatic track changes between the early card and the late races.

The card is a solid mix of claiming routes, sprint sprints, and maiden events, capped off by a Rating Optional Claiming mile in Race 7 that our models flagged as one of the more interesting betting opportunities on the afternoon. There's also a Maiden Special Weight six-furlong dash in Race 6 — always worth a close look for bettors hunting live exotics. Eight races, a lot of angles, and we've got you covered from first post to last.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear top-heavy claiming mile with a dominant TrackWiz rating separating the favorite from the pack, though a pair of live longshots could make the exotics interesting at generous prices.

win4FratelloneML 8/5

Fratellone opens at 8/5 on the morning line and it's easy to see why — his TrackWiz rating of 89.12 is nearly 22 points clear of the next-best horse in here, which is a massive separation in a field like this. The Jaime Rodriguez booking is a positive, and at 12% career wins, this horse knows how to close the deal. Going a mile and 70 yards on dirt plays to a more experienced, ground-saving trip, and Fratellone looks like the class of this field top to bottom.

place6Lucky LarryML 7/2

Lucky Larry brings a field-best 14% career win rate and a solid TrackWiz rating of 67.88 into this spot, and Teshawn Hazelwood keeps the mount, which is always a good continuity sign. At 7/2 on the morning line, he's not going to offer big value to win, but he figures to be a strong place-ticket inclusion — he's consistent enough to hit the board even if Fratellone runs him down late.

show8Drop Me a DimeML 4/1

Drop Me a Dime is the most intriguing third option in this race, posting a career win rate of 20% — the highest in the field — and drawing Paco Lopez, one of the sharper jockey names on this card. His TrackWiz rating of 64.37 is respectable, and if the pace scenario sets up right, Lopez is exactly the kind of rider who can time a late run to at least secure a piece. Worth including in any trifecta combination.

Race 2

5:17 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs where no horse in the field has ever won — pace scenario and connections matter more than past results here.

win6KwanML 2/1

Kwan draws the 2/1 morning line in a field of first-time or winless maidens, and trainer Gregory D. Sacco is a sharp conditioner who knows how to place horses to win. With a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 — the best in the race — and Paco Lopez in the irons, Kwan has a clear equipment advantage over most of this field. In a sprint where the best horse often just wires them, the rail-to-rail scenario here is very real.

place1Hey Sara YougotitML 3/1

Hey Sara Yougotit (No. 1) is trained by Mario Roberto Lopez, who also saddles the No. 2 horse — when a barn double-loads a maiden race, it usually means at least one of them is meant to run. With a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and a 3/1 morning line, she's the value play among the two Lopez trainees, and Sara Hess's local familiarity with the Delaware strip could be the edge that puts her on the board.

show2MisseleanorML 4/1

Misseleanor is the other half of the Lopez stable entry, rated at 55.0 and opening at 4/1. She posts a slightly lower average speed figure than stablemate Hey Sara Yougotit but benefits from the same sharp trainer sending out two horses — one of them often sneaks into the exotics. At 4/1, she's a fair show-ticket price and makes sense as the third leg of any exacta or trifecta box.

Race 3

5:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Collection Day looks like a standout in this nine-horse claiming mile, but Good as He Gets has the win percentage to keep things honest, and a longshot lurks with career numbers that stand out.

win5Collection DayML 5/2

Collection Day posts a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — dominant in this field — and connects with Jaime Rodriguez, a jockey who shows up repeatedly on the better-rated horses in today's card. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the level of separation our analysis shows. A 17% career win rate backs up the numbers, and going a mile and 70 yards with Michael V. Simone training, this horse fits the spot well.

place1Good as He GetsML 7/2

Good as He Gets opens at 7/2 and carries the highest career win percentage among the top contenders at 20%, giving him legitimate place-ticket credentials. Paco Lopez takes the mount, and a TrackWiz rating of 73.15 puts him clearly in the second tier of this field. If Collection Day gets in a pace battle early, Good as He Gets has the tactical ability to pick up the pieces.

show2Uninvited GuestML 8/1

Uninvited Guest at 8/1 on the morning line is the value inclusion for show, rated 64.14 and boasting an 11% career win rate. Ricardo Chiappe gets the ride, and Timothy C. Kreiser is a trainer who tends to run his horses fit. In a nine-horse field with legitimate pace pressure, this kind of closer type can sneak onto the board at a price that makes show tickets worth it.

Three races are open to every TrackWiz reader today, and they set up nicely as a standalone sequence. Fratellone opens the card in Race 1 — an 8/5 morning line in a claiming route going a mile and 70 yards, backed by one of the stronger TrackWiz ratings on the card at 89.12. If he fires his best, he should be controlling the conversation from the front. Race 2 flips the script with a maiden claiming sprint, and Kwan draws our attention at 2/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 reflects how wide-open maiden fields can be, so single at your own risk. Race 3 brings Collection Day back into the picture at 5/2 in another claiming route at a mile and 70, carrying an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — that's legitimate class for this level, and the distance suits horses that want to settle and close.

The early dirt tilt today looks like it could reward pace-pressing types. Keep an eye on how Race 1 sets up — it may offer a blueprint for the rest of the card's routing races.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:28 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This large-field maiden claiming sprint is dominated by a pair of top-rated horses at the top of the program, but a double-digit field creates chaos and the show spot is wide open.

win10Mom EsterinaML 5/2

Mom Esterina (No. 10) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and gets the Paco Lopez booking — a rider who already has multiple mounts on this card and clearly has the trust of connections. Kelly Lynn Deiter trains this one and also conditions Drop Me a Dime in Race 1, showing she knows how to place horses to fire. In an eleven-horse maiden field at 5 1/2 furlongs, breaking clean and getting a comfortable trip early is everything, and Lopez is the right pilot to make that happen.

place1She's a Canny LassML 7/2

She's a Canny Lass (No. 1) rates just a tick below at 84.85 and draws the rail with Jaime Rodriguez up for trainer Michael V. Simone, who is one of the more active and effective barns in today's card. The rail in a maiden sprint can be a gift or a headache depending on the break, but Rodriguez is experienced enough to navigate it. At 7/2, she offers solid place value as a near-equal match for the top pick.

show7Love in the HillsML 8/1

Love in the Hills (No. 7) sits third in our ratings at 66.79 and opens at 8/1, making her the best-priced horse with legitimate credentials in this field. Edgar Villasmil rides for Cesareo Marquez, and an average speed figure of 52 is right in line with the top half of this field. In an eleven-runner maiden with wide-open dynamics past the top two, she's a strong show-play and trifecta consideration.

Race 5

6:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight three-way battle shapes up at the top of this six-furlong claiming sprint, with Federal Exchange and Nano Man nearly inseparable on our ratings and Megan's Honor lurking as a place/show hedge at shorter odds.

win2Federal ExchangeML 3/1

Federal Exchange opens at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — just a hair above Nano Man — and trainer Josue Arce sends him out with Cipriano Gil in the irons. A 5% career win rate looks modest, but in this six-furlong sprint context, the speed figures tell the real story: an average speed of 54 matches the top tier of this field. When our ratings and speed figures both point the same direction, that's the play.

place1Nano ManML 4/1

Nano Man (No. 1) is rated 85.18 — only two points off our top pick — and carries a 9% career win rate with Jaime Rodriguez riding for the in-form Michael V. Simone barn, which is everywhere in today's card. His average speed of 54 equals the field's best, and at 4/1, he's a strong place-ticket play in a race where the top two are nearly impossible to separate. If Federal Exchange gets shuffled early from the two-hole, Nano Man could absolutely steal this.

show5Megan's HonorML 2/1

Megan's Honor draws the 2/1 morning-line chalk despite ranking third in our TrackWiz ratings at 71.44, which suggests the betting public is higher on her than we are — but she's not without merit. An 18% career win rate and Paco Lopez in the saddle give her credibility, and her average speed of 54 keeps her in the mix. She's a safe show play and a natural third leg in any trifecta construction, especially if the pace gets hot between the top two.

Race 6

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite James looks vulnerable in this six-furlong maiden special weight — our top-rated horse opens at more than double the price, creating real value at the windows.

win6WholelotoftroubleML 7/2

Wholelotoftrouble (No. 6) is our top-rated horse in this field at 83.25 yet opens at 7/2 on the morning line while James (8/5) attracts the chalk. Luis M. Ocasio gets the call for trainer Carlos E. Caban, and an average speed figure of 54 leads all horses in this maiden special weight. In a field where several horses have limited public form, the TrackWiz rating edge here is significant — this looks like a genuine overlay in the making.

place5JamesML 8/5

James (No. 5) opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite with Paco Lopez aboard and trainer Michael Stidham, a barn that has strong credentials at this level. Our rating of 59 puts him second in the field, and while we prefer Wholelotoftrouble at the price, James is hard to leave off your tickets entirely when Lopez is riding. He's the natural place key in any exotic construction.

show4When We Do We DoML 2/1

When We Do We Do (No. 4) opens at 2/1 and rates third in the field at 58.33, just behind James. Julian Pimentel rides for Jorge Duarte, Jr., and while this horse doesn't have a publicly available average speed figure on record, the morning line suggests connections are confident. At 2/1, the show price won't be exciting, but as a trifecta leg alongside our top two, she rounds out the ticket nicely.

Race 7

8:03 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite gets upended by our ratings in this optional claimer on the dirt mile — Miss Interpatation opens at 8/1 but tops the TrackWiz board, making this one of the most intriguing value spots on the card.

win4Miss InterpatationML 8/1

Miss Interpatation (No. 4) has a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — best in the field — and a career win rate of 33%, which is elite for this level. Paco Lopez takes a live 8/1 shot for Michael V. Simone, a trainer who appears multiple times on today's card with well-placed horses. At that price, if our model is right that she's the top horse here, the win payoff would be exceptional. This is one of the clearest overlay situations on the card.

place3DelrayML 9/5

Delray (No. 3) opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite with a 29% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 76.99 — just behind our top pick. Jaime Rodriguez rides for the Jamie Ness barn, and an average speed of 54 is the best in the field. The betting public will likely make Delray the chalk, and the form justifies it — he's a legitimate place anchor even if Miss Interpatation runs him down.

show6Dynamic ActressML 8/1

Dynamic Actress (No. 6) is quietly interesting here — a 40% career win rate (highest in the field) and an average speed of 54 matching the top horses. Martin Chuan rides for Nesvil Hernan Bailon, and at 8/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value if she runs back to her best. That win percentage is the kind of number that catches your eye, and in an optional claiming race where conditions can flatter different profiles, she's worth including in trifecta tickets.

Race 8

8:36 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight dual-threat headliner closes the card in this six-furlong claiming sprint, with Combat Hoofs and Three Polks rated nearly even at the top and Infastuation worth watching as a price play underneath.

win6Combat HoofsML 3/1

Combat Hoofs (No. 6) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and opens at 3/1 for the Bruce M. Kravets barn with Yabriel O. Ramos up. An average speed figure of 55 — highest in the field — is the number that stands out most, and an 18% career win rate suggests he's no stranger to the winner's circle. Kravets also runs Aaraj in this race, and when a trainer double-enters, the sharper horse tends to be the one with the better rider and higher odds — Combat Hoofs checks both boxes.

place7Three PolksML 2/1

Three Polks (No. 7) opens at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 84.75 — only two points off our top pick — and Angel R. Rodriguez gets the mount for Brandon L. Kulp. A 28% career win rate is the second best in this field and speaks to genuine class, and an average speed of 54 keeps him in the speed conversation. If there's a pace duel between the front-runners, Three Polks' consistency gives him every chance to collect the place.

show5InfastuationML 6/1

Infastuation (No. 5) is the best-priced legitimate contender in this race, opening at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 73.23 and a 14% career win rate. Carol Cedeno rides for Carlos M. Sepulveda, who also conditions Magnolia Wind in this spot, and an average speed of 54 equals the top half of the field. In a six-furlong sprint where pace can get honest fast, Infastuation figures to find room late and is a smart show-ticket play and trifecta inclusion at that price.

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Bottom line for today at Delaware: Fratellone and Collection Day headline the free card as legitimate top plays in the claiming routes, and the premium card is loaded with pace-driven sprint angles and an intriguing longshot play in Race 7. It's a workmanlike Wednesday card, but the right approach can find real value. Full analysis — pace, exotics, and all — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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