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Delaware Park Picks & Predictions — September 10, 2026

September 10, 20268 racesAll Delaware Park picks

Delaware Park rolls out an eight-race card on Thursday, September 10th under a cloudy sky with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 82°F. No rain in the picture means the dirt should be playing fast and true — the kind of surface that rewards horses with early speed and clean trips. Keep that in mind as you work through the card.

We've got a nice mix today: five dirt races, two turf events, and one route that stretches just past a mile on the main track. The conditions range from maiden claiming sprints to an allowance optional claiming feature, so there's something for every betting style — whether you're a pick-three grinder or a straight-up win player looking for a single. Eight races, three free best bets, and a full premium breakdown for subscribers who want to go deep.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this one-mile claiming opener, but the second and third slots are genuinely competitive with a trio of mid-range contenders capable of filling the exotics.

win6As the Bell TolesML 9/5

As the Bell Toles is the most decorated horse in this field by a wide margin — a 30% career win rate in a field where the next-best is 15% is a significant edge. Our TrackWiz rating of 88.83 leads the field comfortably, and Emanuel Rosario picks up the mount, which is a positive sign. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the résumé justifies the favoritism at one mile on the dirt.

place1Stylish GemML 5/2

Stylish Gem rates as the logical fill-in at 5/2, posting a solid TrackWiz rating of 74.58 and an average speed figure of 53 that matches the top tier. Jaime Rodriguez is a capable hand, and the 11% career win rate in a modest claiming field means this horse knows how to compete when the conditions are right.

show4Rules for ThreeML 7/2

Rules for Three brings the best career win percentage among the non-favorite contenders at 15%, giving this horse a legitimate edge in terms of converting spots. Sara Hess keeps the mount, the 7/2 morning line offers fair value for a show bet, and the 64.65 TrackWiz rating puts this horse in range to hit the board in a winnable spot.

Race 2

4:52 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses have separated themselves from the pack in this 5½-furlong dirt sprint, setting up a potential top-two battle while a pair of mid-priced contenders keep the exotics honest.

win2The Judge and JuryML 3/1

The Judge and Jury is our top pick here and the numbers back it up — a 22% career win rate leads all starters, and the 87.08 TrackWiz rating is the best in the field. The average speed figure of 55 ties Trophy Room for the top mark but with a superior rating differential. Yabriel O. Ramos gets the call for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, and this combo has the look of a confident, well-placed entry.

place1Little LanceML 2/1

Little Lance is the public's morning-line favorite at 2/1, and it's not hard to see why — the 81.71 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and Paco Lopez in the irons gives this horse a significant jockey upgrade. The 15% career win rate is modest, but the speed figure of 54 is strong for the sprint distance, and this one figures to be running at the top of the stretch.

show3Aint No JokeML 4/1

Aint No Joke at 4/1 is worth including in exotics as a viable third option in what figures to be a pace-pressured sprint. The 59.99 TrackWiz rating is a clear step back from the top two, but an average speed of 53 and a 15% career win rate suggest enough ability to hang around for a piece. Joshua J. Radosevich has been active at the meet, and this could be a sneaky place-show hit.

Race 3

5:24 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A surprise morning-line underdog carries the top TrackWiz rating in this starter optional claiming route, setting up a potential overlay situation while the heavy favorite Chowser draws plenty of public attention.

win4Bad Boy ButchML 5/2

Bad Boy Butch is the standout according to our TrackWiz model, posting an 87.81 rating that is more than 20 points clear of the morning-line favorite Chowser. The 5/2 morning line suggests the public isn't fully on board yet, which makes this a potential value situation. Samuel Marin rides for trainer Gregory D. Sacco, a respected conditioner, and at 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt, there's enough real estate for a closer to get organized.

place3ChowserML 7/5

Chowser draws the bulk of the public money at 7/5 and will be tough to beat for the show spot at minimum. The 65.76 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and Paco Lopez — one of the best riders in the Mid-Atlantic — keeps the mount for Jorge Duarte, Jr. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive, and this horse is likely to be forwardly placed throughout.

show2Lino's FireML 6/1

Lino's Fire offers a touch of value at 6/1 morning line in what could be a contentious pace scenario. The 52.71 TrackWiz rating and 11% career win rate aren't flashy, but Wilfredo Corujo gets the mount and the horse's average speed of 52 keeps it within range. In a wide-open supporting cast, Lino's Fire is the type that can sneak into the exotics at a price.

Our three free best bets span the first three races, and they paint an interesting picture of the early card. As the Bell Toles opens the day in Race 1 — a one-mile claiming route on dirt — carrying an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 9/5 morning line that suggests the market agrees with us. Race 2 flips to a 5½-furlong sprint where The Judge and Jury (87.08 rating) offers a bit more value at 3/1 if the pace scenario sets up right. Then Bad Boy Butch (87.81) takes center stage in Race 3's starter optional claiming route going just over a mile — another dirt test where class and pace projections tilt his way.

One thread connecting these three: in warm, dry conditions like today's, Delaware's dirt has historically favored horses who can press the pace or sit just off a contested early fraction. All three of our free picks profile well for that scenario. Worth noting — the two-turn geometry of Races 1 and 3 puts a premium on horses who don't waste energy fighting for position early. Let the race come to you.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:56 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming field with zero career wins across the board, but Velveteen stands out on our model despite not being the public's top choice at the windows.

win3VelveteenML 9/2

Velveteen tops our TrackWiz ratings in this 11-horse maiden field at 84.90 — the only horse in the race to crack 60 besides Keep Her Happy. The 9/2 morning line represents genuine value given that rating advantage, and Yabriel O. Ramos for trainer Bruce M. Kravets is a sharp combo. An average speed of 54 is among the best in the field, giving this filly legitimate punch in a six-furlong dirt sprint.

place1Keep Her HappyML 3/1

Keep Her Happy is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and rates second on our model with a 56.67 score. Raul E. Mena picks up the mount for Michael E. Gorham, and the average speed figure of 53 is in line with the top of this field. In a maiden event where pace can be chaotic, an experienced-looking runner with the second-best rating makes plenty of sense underneath.

show10Tap You Are ItML 6/1

Tap You Are It adds a wrinkle as a double-digit morning-line runner at 6/1 with a 51.67 TrackWiz rating and the top average speed in the field at 54. Edgar Villasmil gets the call for trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter, who also saddles Lucky Ticket — having multiple horses in the race can sometimes indicate a yard with strong opinions about readiness. At 6/1, there's enough value here to include in the show slot of multi-race tickets.

Race 5

6:28 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Seven and a half furlongs on the turf brings a competitive maiden special weight field to the gate, with ratings bunched tightly enough that pace and post position could decide things.

win4Captain CodyML 3/1

Captain Cody draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 56.67 and comes in at a fair 3/1 morning line. Abner Adorno takes the mount for the respected John C. Servis barn, and an average speed figure of 53 holds up in this field. On a turf route where stamina and stalking ability matter, Servis-trained horses typically arrive fit and ready — this is a trainer worth following at any distance.

place2Vicky RoyalML 4/1

Vicky Royal at 4/1 is worth including with a 55.00 TrackWiz rating and Paco Lopez in the irons for Lindsay Schultz — the jockey alone makes this worth a second look. The 52 average speed is the lowest among horses with a figure in this field, but the Lopez factor and the ratings proximity to Captain Cody suggest this one will be running late. A nice place play at a price that still offers some value.

show7Ready SetML 9/2

Ready Set at 9/2 gives us a legitimate third option at a fair price, posting a 54.17 TrackWiz rating that slots neatly between our top two picks. Jevian Toledo in the saddle for Brittany T. Russell is an intriguing angle — Toledo has won on this circuit and Russell has a history of placing horses in spots they can succeed. Without an average speed figure available, there's some uncertainty, but the rating and connections keep this firmly on the radar.

Race 6

7:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-priced morning-line favorite dominates the TrackWiz model in this allowance optional claiming sprint, but a pair of mid-field contenders — including a significant longshot — make the exotics worth constructing.

win6ChatelotML 8/5

Chatelot is the standout here and it isn't particularly close on our model — an 87.97 TrackWiz rating and 28% career win rate put this horse in a different tier than the rest of the field. Paco Lopez aboard for Kerri Raven is a sharp jockey-trainer pairing in an allowance spot, and the average speed of 54 ranks tied for the top in the field. Yes, the 8/5 morning line is short, but this is a justified favorite.

place1Last Flag FlyingML 10/1

Last Flag Flying at 10/1 is the most interesting value play on the card in this race, carrying a 25% career win rate and a 60.72 TrackWiz rating that sits comfortably clear of the mid-pack. Charlie Marquez picks up the mount for Chuck Spina, and the average speed of 53 keeps this horse in range. If you're building a vertical ticket, Last Flag Flying as a place option at double-digit odds is the kind of play that pays.

show5Oak Brook LadyML 2/1

Oak Brook Lady is the other public favorite at 2/1 and brings an eye-catching career win percentage — though the small sample size behind that number warrants some caution. The 58.33 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and an average speed of 55 is the top mark among all starters. Cecily Evans rides for McLean Robertson, and speed figures like that in a 6-furlong dirt sprint often translate directly to early position and finish quality.

Race 7

7:32 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A deep, ten-horse turf route at 1⅛ miles with genuine top-end quality and a long list of plausible also-rans — pace, trip, and turf form will all factor into where the money lands.

win5Souper CrunchyML 5/2

Souper Crunchy tops the TrackWiz model at 87.81 and looks like a well-placed starter for the Michael J. Trombetta barn, one of the sharper operations in the Mid-Atlantic corridor. Paco Lopez takes the mount, which is always a meaningful upgrade, and the average speed of 54 is among the best in the field. The 5/2 morning line is fair — this horse doesn't scream overlay, but the combination of model strength, trainer quality, and jockey talent makes it the most defensible win pick on the card.

place6AlrasikhML 9/2

Alrasikh at 9/2 is the most attractive underneath option, posting an 80.88 TrackWiz rating for Victor Carrasco, Jr. with Jose A. Batista in the irons. The 11% career win rate is modest but not alarming in a turf route where the field is this competitive. An average speed of 53 is right in the mix, and at 9/2 there's value to be had if this horse can hold second in a race that sets up for closers.

show10Red Sky MorningML 7/2

Red Sky Morning rounds out the picks at 7/2 and brings a 67.63 TrackWiz rating that's solidly third in the field. Julio A. Hernandez has been active and effective for trainer Michael Dini, and the 15% career win rate is respectable in a starter optional claiming context. In a large field on a turf route, pace can scatter the field and create opportunities for horses like this to sneak onto the board.

Race 8

8:04 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The final race of the card is a maiden claiming sprint where Crazy Miles enters as the model's top pick despite not being the morning-line favorite, creating a potential value opportunity to close out the card.

win1Crazy MilesML 5/2

Crazy Miles carries an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field and identical to Souper Crunchy's mark in Race 7 — but comes at a significantly more generous 5/2 morning line. Yabriel O. Ramos rides for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, the same combo that guided Velveteen in Race 4, suggesting the barn is having a strong afternoon. An average speed of 54 is solid for the six-furlong dirt distance, and first-out maiden claimers from strong barns deserve extra respect.

place6Calling On HeavenML 7/5

Calling On Heaven is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 with a 78.55 TrackWiz rating and the top average speed figure in the field at 55. Martin Chuan rides for Keri Brion, a trainer with a reputation for placing horses well in maiden company. This one is tough to beat on paper and makes complete sense as a place play — the slight knock is simply that our model prefers Crazy Miles at a better price.

show2Gallant CreekML 8/1

Gallant Creek at 8/1 is the longshot worth including in the show position of any exotic ticket. The 59.62 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and Edgar Villasmil for trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter — who also enters Tap You Are It in Race 4 today — suggests an active and engaged barn. In a seven-horse maiden field where the top two draw all the attention, Gallant Creek at 8/1 on the morning line could offer real show-parlay value to end the card.

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Today at Delaware Park, the story starts early with As the Bell Toles, Bad Boy Butch, and The Judge and Jury leading our free selections on a fast, dry dirt track. For the complete eight-race breakdown — pace scenarios, exotic strategies, and every contender graded — the full card analysis is waiting for subscribers. A good card, a playable track, and a few horses we like at real prices. Let's make it count.

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