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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

September 7, 202611 racesAll Del Mar picks

Labor Day weekend is winding down, but Del Mar isn't letting you off easy — Sunday's card serves up 11 races under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 86°F, the kind of Southern California afternoon that reminds you why this place is called the track where the surf meets the turf.

The card leans heavily on the grass, with six of the eleven races contested on turf. That's a meaningful factor today, and TrackWiz analysis flagged several spots where turf specialists figure to have a clear edge. Two stakes races anchor the card — a 6-furlong dirt sprint and a mile-and-an-eighth turf route — giving serious players plenty to dig into from the middle of the card all the way to the nightcap.

Whether you're here for a casual Sunday flutter or building multi-race tickets, there's plenty of ammunition. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf mile where three horses are bunched at the top of our ratings within a single point of each other — expect a tight finish and a complicated exacta.

win6Rosa's MiracleML 5/2

Rosa's Miracle tops our TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and draws one of the more favorable morning lines in the field at 5/2, suggesting the market agrees with our model. Trainer John W. Sadler is one of the premier conditioners in Southern California, and pairing him with jockey Kazushi Kimura gives this filly a polished battery to navigate a one-mile turf route. Her average speed figure of 54 is right in the pack, but the overall profile — connections, rating edge — makes her the play at a price that won't scare anyone off.

place3PavularML 3/1

Pavular checks in with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating, matching Tiger Luck at the top of the secondary tier, and comes in at 3/1 on the morning line — fair value for a place ticket. Trainer Antonio C. Garcia also saddles Divine Kismet in this race, which signals confidence in the barn's turf preparation; Pavular is clearly the lead entry. With an average speed figure of 54 and jockey Hector Isaac Berrios aboard, expect a competitive effort.

show8Tiger LuckML 3/1

Tiger Luck mirrors Pavular's 56.67 rating and shares the same 3/1 morning line, making him a logical third wheel in the exotics. Trainer Tim Yakteen consistently places his horses well, and Juan J. Hernandez is one of the meet's more reliable riders. The slight speed figure edge over most of the field — clocking a 56 average — gives Tiger Luck a sneaky chance to hit the board even if the top two run their race.

Race 2

9:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 13-horse maiden claimer on the dirt with one scratch, led by two horses our model separates cleanly at the top — but value runners lurk in the middle of this field.

win11Stormy GalML 6/1

Stormy Gal leads the entire field with a TrackWiz rating of 64.71, a meaningful gap over the next best. At 6/1 on the morning line, she offers legit value — the market hasn't fully caught up to where our model has her. Trainer Ruben Gomez puts Armando Aguilar up, and while this is a maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs on dirt, Stormy Gal's overall profile stands out clearly from the pack. If she runs anywhere near her rating, she should be competitive at a price that makes the win bet worthwhile.

place2Surprise D' OroML 8/1

Surprise D' Oro slots in second on our model at 62.65 and is posted at 8/1 — that's a gap between rating and morning line that TrackWiz analysis loves for place tickets. Trainer Hector O. Palma sends her out with Alfredo L. Bautista, and her average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this field. At those odds, including her underneath in exactas and as a place play is smart risk management.

show9Stylishly BigML 7/2

Stylishly Big comes in as the morning-line favorite's near-equivalent at 7/2 and earns a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — solid, if not top of class. Trainer John W. Sadler again fields a contender, with Juan J. Hernandez up, and her 55 average speed figure gives her a slight edge over several rivals. She's the kind of horse you put on the bottom of trifectas and hope the top two run their race.

Race 3

9:38 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

The morning-line favorite Miss Hellfire is vulnerable in this starter optional claimer on the turf sprint — our model finds a massive overlay at the top of the ratings that the morning line has wildly mispriced.

win6FrogML 8/1

Frog is our top-rated horse in Race 3 by a country mile, posting a 79.79 TrackWiz rating while sitting at 8/1 on the morning line. That's one of the largest rating-to-odds disconnects on the entire card. Trainer Michael W. McCarthy is a sharp operator on the turf, and Juan J. Hernandez is a high-percentage rider who gets the most out of horses in sprint conditions. A 20% career win rate backs up the profile — this is the kind of longshot angle that can swing a whole card.

place4Famous ForzaML 12/1

Famous Forza rates second in the field at 64.96 and is posted at 12/1 — another horse our model believes is undervalued by the morning line. Trainer Bill McLean gives Emisael Jaramillo the call, and the 56 average speed figure puts Famous Forza among the faster horses in the field. At those odds, even a place finish is a score, and she fits nicely in trifecta and exacta combinations.

show11Jennys Wine GirlML 15/1

Jennys Wine Girl ties Miss Hellfire on our rating at 59.0 but goes off at 15/1 versus the favorite's 8/5 — that's where the value lives for show bettors and exotic players. Trainer Richard Baltas knows this turf course well, and Edwin A. Maldonado has the horse ready for this spot. Her 55 average speed figure keeps her in the mix, and at 15/1 she's a sneaky trifecta closer worth including.

We're opening the card with three free best bets to get you started. In Race 1, Rosa's Miracle draws our attention in a maiden special weight mile on the turf at 5/2 on the morning line — a solid morning-line number for a grass route where pace can get complicated early. Race 2 shifts to the dirt for a 5½-furlong maiden claimer, where Stormy Gal jumps off the page as a 6/1 value play — that's the kind of morning line that tends to attract sharp money when the underlying rating backs it up, and ours does. Then in Race 3, don't sleep on Frog at 8/1 in the starter optional claiming sprint on the turf. An 8/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating pushing 80 is exactly the longshot angle casual bettors overlook and sharp players exploit.

The through-line on all three free picks: each runner profiles well for their specific surface and distance, and none of them are being handed to you at chalk prices. That's the spot we like to be in.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:11 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive allowance optional claimer on the dirt where one horse stands clearly above the field on our model — but there's enough depth in the ratings to make the exacta interesting.

win4Dottie HinsonML 4/1

Dottie Hinson is the standout in this race, posting an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 20 points clear of her nearest rival. A 33% career win rate is genuinely impressive at this class level, and Kazushi Kimura on the call adds a high-quality rider to an already strong profile. At 4/1 on the morning line, trainer Andy Mathis has this filly pointed perfectly for the 6½-furlong dirt distance.

place1Miss KonaML 3/1

Miss Kona is a live place contender at 3/1 with a 65.58 rating and a 25% career win rate — she's hit the board before and should do so here. Trainer Peter Eurton sends her out with Antonio Fresu, and her 55 average speed figure matches several rivals. The short price may limit win-bet value, but place tickets and underneath slots in exactas make plenty of sense.

show3Cotta RideML 5/1

Cotta Ride earns a 62.5 TrackWiz rating and boasts a standout 40% career win rate — the highest in the field. Trainer Mark Glatt gives Ricardo Gonzalez the mount, and while the 5/1 morning line won't wow anyone, that win percentage is a strong indicator of a horse that finds the winner's circle. As a show play or third leg in trifectas, Cotta Ride is worth the inclusion.

Race 5

10:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Two scratches thin the maiden turf mile field, but three horses separate themselves convincingly at the top of our ratings — and none of them are the cheapest plays on the board.

win11ThrowthefirstpunchML 4/1

Throwthefirstpunch tops our model at 85.62 and is the morning-line co-favorite at 4/1 alongside the scratched Tight Dally. Trainer Doug F. O'Neill is a proven hand at Del Mar, and Emisael Jaramillo gives this horse every chance in a one-mile turf route. The 55 average speed figure is competitive, and the rating separation here is significant enough that our analysis lands firmly on this runner as the top selection.

place7Fair QuestionML 5/1

Fair Question earns an 81.37 rating and goes at 5/1 on the morning line — slightly longer than the top pick and worth including in all multi-race wagers. Trainer Brian J. Koriner puts Drayden Van Dyke up, one of the more accomplished riders in the Southern California colony. A 56 average speed figure is among the best in the field, and if Throwthefirstpunch gets into trouble, Fair Question is ideally positioned to swoop.

show9FawcettML 6/1

Fawcett rates 79.95 and goes at 6/1, making her the third member of what looks like a legitimate Big Three at the top of this maiden turf field. Trainer Peter Miller has a strong grass stable, and Hector Isaac Berrios provides an experienced hand. Her 54 average speed figure is solid, and including her in trifectas as the show leg gives you coverage at a price that pays well.

Race 6

11:14 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A short but loaded stakes field at 6 furlongs on the dirt, with a dominant morning-line favorite backed by our highest single-horse rating of the day — the question is whether anyone can press him.

win6Net ParML 8/5

Net Par is a deserving favorite at 8/5 and backs it up with an elite 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest rating on the entire card today. A 66% career win rate is extraordinary at the stakes level and says everything you need to know about this horse's consistency. Juan J. Hernandez handles the riding duties for trainer Antonio C. Garcia, a sharp combination. The only knock is the price — at 8/5, the win bet is thin, so consider rolling him into exactas and trifectas to maximize return.

place3Cupid CowboyML 8/1

Cupid Cowboy is our value play underneath at 8/1 with a 63.17 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate. Trainer Edwin G. Alvarez fields two runners in this race, and Cupid Cowboy appears to be the stronger of the pair based on our model. Abel Lezcano gets the call, and at 8/1 in a stakes race, a place finish pays respectably — include him in your exactas behind Net Par.

show7Early EncoreML 9/5

Early Encore draws the second-best odds in the field at 9/5 and rates 58.67 with a 50% career win rate — that win percentage in stakes company is eye-catching. Trainer John W. Sadler sends Emisael Jaramillo out, and while our model puts Early Encore third in the field, the connections are top-shelf. She's the logical show play and trifecta anchor if the top two run as expected.

Race 7

11:44 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A deep 14-horse allowance optional claimer on the turf sprint with one scratch, where our model unearths a significant overlay at the top of the ratings — the morning line has badly missed on our top selection.

win12We the HobbyML 8/1

We the Hobby earns a 79.79 TrackWiz rating and is listed at 8/1 — a glaring overlay in a field where our model has her clearly at the top. Trainer Peter Miller fields her with Hector Isaac Berrios, a capable jockey on the turf. The 54 average speed figure is workmanlike, but it's the overall rating edge that makes this horse stand out as the TrackWiz best bet of the race.

place9Bessie ColemanML 5/1

Bessie Coleman rates 76.7 and posts a 23% career win rate — a horse who wins nearly a quarter of her starts in allowance company deserves respect. Trainer Steven Miyadi puts Emisael Jaramillo up, and the 55 average speed figure is right in the heat of this race's competitive range. At 5/1, she offers real place value and fits naturally in the exacta underneath We the Hobby.

show7Fancy FactsML 7/2

Fancy Facts rates 69.29 with a 22% career win rate and goes at 7/2 on the morning line, making her the expected public choice. Trainer Mike Puype gives Drayden Van Dyke the mount, and the 57 average speed figure is the second-best in the field — speed on the turf sprint matters. She's the chalk you put on the show end of trifectas when you're trying to beat her on top.

Race 8

12:14 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint on the dirt dominated by first-time starters and lightly raced horses — the morning line points toward two clear favorites, and our model agrees with the public's assessment.

win8Imperial HonorML 5/2

Imperial Honor tops our TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 5/2, a validation of the public's read on this race. Trainer Bob Baffert has the most potent maiden-breaking operation in the sport, and Juan J. Hernandez is the right rider to handle a debut or lightly raced runner at a sprint distance. While avgSpeed data is unavailable for this horse, the rating and connections combine to make Imperial Honor the clear top selection.

place10DomeniciML 4/1

Domenici rates 55 and checks in at 4/1 on the morning line — the second choice in the market and on our model. Trainer Tim Yakteen is a consistent presence in maiden races at this level, and Ramon A. Vazquez gets the assignment. A 56 average speed figure is the best available in the field among horses with workout data, which matters in a sprint.

show3Magic TimeML 6/1

Magic Time earns a 51.67 TrackWiz rating and goes at 6/1, making him a longer shot worth stashing on the show end of trifectas. Trainer Michael W. McCarthy is a blue-chip conditioner, and Kazushi Kimura knows how to place horses in the right spot. No prior race speed data creates some uncertainty, but the trainer-jockey combination warrants inclusion in exotic plays.

Race 9

12:44 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

The marquee turf stakes at 1⅛ miles features a morning-line favorite backed by one of the highest ratings on today's card — but a deep field with legitimate alternatives makes this more than a one-horse show.

win4Thought ProcessML 8/5

Thought Process rates 88.0 on our model and is the 8/5 morning-line favorite — a rare case where the ratings and the market are in full agreement. A 62% career win rate in stakes company is among the best figures you'll see anywhere on a race card, and trainer Philip D'Amato is one of the elite turf conditioners in the country. Hector Isaac Berrios gets the mount, and the 55 average speed figure suits the 1⅛-mile turf route. This is as close to a confident top selection as TrackWiz analysis produces.

place7MedoroML 7/2

Medoro earns an 81.85 rating and goes at 7/2 — the second-best horse in the field on our model and a legitimate threat to beat Thought Process if something goes wrong. Trainer Peter Eurton gives Juan J. Hernandez the call, and a 37% career win rate is elite in any company. At 7/2, this is a place bet that makes you money even if the favorite does its job.

show2Pura Vida PrincesaML 12/1

Pura Vida Princesa is our show selection at a very attractive 12/1 on the morning line, with a 73.96 TrackWiz rating that makes her the third-best horse in this field. Trainer Doug F. O'Neill sends Joe Bravo out, and the 56 average speed figure is one of the highest in the race. A 20% career win rate in graded stakes-level company is respectable, and at 12/1 in a trifecta, she's outstanding value if the top two run to form.

Race 10

1:14 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full 13-horse starter allowance at 6½ furlongs on the dirt where our model identifies two horses clustered near the top — and one is a significant overlay that the morning line hasn't properly accounted for.

win13Sendit MoML 5/1

Sendit Mo leads our ratings at 84.17 and goes at 5/1 on the morning line — solid value for the top-rated horse in the field. A 27% career win rate at this level shows consistent competitiveness, and trainer George Papaprodromou pairs him with Antonio Fresu, one of the more in-form jockeys at the meet. The 56 average speed figure is right in line with the competitive range for this race, and the model's confidence here is high.

place8Known IdeaML 4/1

Known Idea is nearly as strong at 83.86 and goes at 4/1, making the Papaprodromou barn the dominant force in this race — the same trainer saddles both the win and place picks. Fresu is also listed here, with the program likely sorting out final jockey assignments, and the 56 average speed figure mirrors Sendit Mo. A 22% career win rate backs up the model's assessment, and the exacta between two Papaprodromou horses at this price is worth a serious look.

show4Disko TributeML 8/1

Disko Tribute earns a 69.64 rating and posts the best average speed figure in the field at 58 — raw speed numbers are often predictive in sprint-to-sprint routes on dirt. Trainer Craig Dollase sends Kazushi Kimura out, and a 23% career win rate adds to the credibility of this selection. At 8/1, Disko Tribute is the logical third wheel in trifectas and a show bet with genuine upside.

Race 11

1:44 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The nightcap is a wide-open maiden turf route with 14 runners and one of the largest fields of the day — our model finds a clear top selection, but the depth of the field makes single-horse tickets risky.

win4Constitution AndiML 6/1

Constitution Andi tops the field with a 72.06 TrackWiz rating despite being listed at 6/1 on the morning line — a meaningful disconnect that TrackWiz analysis flags as a value opportunity. Trainer Mike Puype pairs her with Victor Espinoza, a Hall of Fame rider who knows how to place horses in maiden turf routes at Del Mar. The 53 average speed figure is on the lower end, but the overall profile and model edge make Constitution Andi the top selection to close out the card.

place10TaifML 4/1

Taif draws from the Bob Baffert barn and goes at 4/1 — the morning-line second choice backed by one of the most powerful maiden-breaking operations in racing. Trainer Baffert sends Antonio Fresu out, and the 55 average speed figure is competitive for a 1 1/16-mile turf route. A 55.0 TrackWiz rating puts Taif solidly in contention, and Baffert's maiden win percentage is always a factor worth respecting.

show6PostmodernML 8/1

Postmodern rates 54.47 and goes at 8/1 with trainer Mark Glatt sending Ricardo Gonzalez out — a sharp pair of connections who regularly fire in maiden turf spots. A 55 average speed figure is right in the competitive zone for this distance, and Glatt's patient approach to turf maidens often means his horses are ready when they show up. At 8/1, Postmodern belongs in trifectas and exacta boxes as the show component.

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Bottom line for today: the turf is the story at Del Mar, two stakes races give the card real teeth, and our free picks — Rosa's Miracle, Stormy Gal, and the longshot special Frog — give every reader a legitimate starting point. For pace projections, exotic strategies, and the complete 11-race breakdown including Net Par and Thought Process, the full TrackWiz card analysis is waiting for you at /pricing. Good luck out there — make it count.

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