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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — September 6, 2026

September 6, 202611 racesAll Del Mar picks

Del Mar is serving up an 11-race card on Labor Day weekend Sunday, and the Pacific coast is keeping things comfortable — cloudy skies and 81°F means no heat stress on these horses, which is worth noting as we project pace scenarios across a turf-heavy afternoon.

Six of today's 11 races are run on the grass, so surface form is going to be the name of the game. The card is well-constructed top to bottom, featuring three Stakes races, a pair of Maiden Special Weights that could produce some value, and a sprinkling of claiming and allowance spots that reward sharp analysis.

We've got three races open for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and our TrackWiz ratings are pointing at some interesting spots right out of the gate. Let's break down what's on the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open starter optional claiming sprint on the turf where the TrackWiz ratings separate one clear standout from a mid-pack cluster — but the morning line oddsmakers haven't fully caught up.

win6Scene by MeML 7/2

Scene by Me is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35, comfortably the highest in the field and nearly 18 points clear of the next competitor. Trainer Mark Glatt is one of the sharpest conditioners at Del Mar, and Emisael Jaramillo brings live riding form to a horse who looks well-placed at 7/2 on the morning line. In a five-furlong turf sprint, early positioning matters, and this one has the profile to get it done. At relatively short odds for the format, the rating edge justifies the confidence.

place1BroheimML 6/1

Broheim draws the rail with Juan J. Hernandez up and posts a solid TrackWiz rating of 68.27 — second-best in the field. Michael McCarthy keeps a consistent barn, and a 16% career win rate is respectable in this company. Inside post in a short turf sprint can be a blessing with a clean break, making Broheim a logical place component in your exotics.

show10Miles FinchML 6/1

Miles Finch at 6/1 on the morning line offers some overlay potential as the show pick. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joel Rosario — a sharp jockey-trainer combo — Miles Finch ties for the field's top average speed figure at 57. That raw speed, combined with Rosario's ability to find position, makes this horse a solid exotic include if the pace sets up favorably off the front.

Race 2

9:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight on the dirt where two Baffert trainees split the top two slots on the morning line, setting up a potential barn battle — but TrackWiz sees a razor-thin edge between the top three horses.

win7Quattro PassiML 2/1

Quattro Passi tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and carries the coveted Bob Baffert-Mike Smith combo, one of the most decorated partnerships in the sport. Sitting at 2/1 on the morning line, this first-time starter or lightly raced maiden brings an average speed figure of 57 — tied for best in the field. In maiden special weight races, trainer reputation and workout patterns carry outsized weight, and Baffert's first-out maidens at Del Mar historically demand respect.

place1Prospect of LoveML 5/2

Prospect of Love is another Baffert trainee, this time with Juan J. Hernandez in the irons, and rates just a hair below Quattro Passi at 57.5 on the TrackWiz scale. At 5/2, she's the second choice and represents a natural saver if stablemate Quattro Passi falters. In a barn-vs.-barn scenario like this, playing both Baffert horses across the board is a reasonable approach for safety.

show8RosauraML 4/1

Rosaura, trained by John Sadler and ridden by Joel Rosario, slots in at a 55.0 TrackWiz rating and is the 4/1 third choice. Sadler consistently produces ready maidens, and Rosario is one of the top riders in the country. With no prior speed figure available, there's some mystery here — but that unknown factor, combined with the Sadler-Rosario pedigree, makes Rosaura worth including at the bottom of your exotics tickets.

Race 3

9:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse turf claiming field at a mile and an eighth sees two horses — one the morning-line favorite, one significantly overlaid — nearly dead-even at the top of the TrackWiz ratings.

win10Ah JeezML 5/2

Ah Jeez leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and is the 5/2 morning-line favorite trained by Doug O'Neill with Emisael Jaramillo aboard. At 1 1/8 miles on the turf — a distance that rewards stamina and tactical racing — a 12% career win rate in claiming company doesn't jump off the page, but the rating model accounts for more than raw win percentage. Jaramillo has been riding with confidence all meet, and O'Neill knows how to spot a horse for a spot.

place7City ExileML 7/2

City Exile is the value angle here — a 7/2 morning-line price with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35, virtually identical to the top pick, and a career win rate of 30% that stands out in this field. Juan J. Hernandez is one of the meet's leading riders, and trainer Steve Knapp has City Exile in a spot that suits. The combination of strong ratings and a legitimate win percentage makes this horse a strong place candidate and potentially a win overlay.

show13ZalamoML 5/1

Zalamo at 5/1 brings a 64.55 TrackWiz rating — comfortably third in this wide field — with Umberto Rispoli handling the trip for trainer George Papaprodromou. The Papaprodromou barn has been active and competitive at Del Mar, and Rispoli is a turf specialist who navigates big fields well. At 5/1, there's real value in using Zalamo underneath in trifectas and superfectas.

The free portion of today's card gives you a solid early sample of what's shaping up. Scene by Me opens the show in Race 1, a Starter Optional Claiming sprint on the turf at 5 furlongs — she carries our highest free-race rating at 86.35 and comes in at a workable 7/2 morning line. Race 3 is where we're most excited on the free side: Ah Jeez tops our model with an 87.81 rating in a 1 1/8-mile turf Claiming route, and at 5/2, this is the kind of play where the price matches the confidence. Race 2's MSW on the dirt features Quattro Passi as the morning line favorite at 2/1 — maiden dirt sprints are always volatile, but our model sees enough here to make a case.

One thing to watch across these early races: with cloud cover keeping the turf firmer than a sun-baked afternoon typically allows, grass runners with a preference for good-to-firm conditions get a subtle edge today. File that away as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:11 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

This stakes sprint on the dirt is essentially a Bob Baffert showcase — two undefeated Baffert trainees command the top two spots on the morning line, leaving the rest of the field fighting for third money.

win4HughesML 4/5

Hughes is the 4/5 morning-line favorite with a 100% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 60.0, the top mark in this five-horse field. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan J. Hernandez, Hughes pairs the sport's marquee trainer with one of the meet's most active jockeys. An average speed figure of 57 — best in the field — combined with an unblemished record makes this horse the clear top selection, even if the short price squeezes the win value.

place5DomusML 7/5

Domus is essentially a coin flip with Hughes on paper — another undefeated Baffert trainee at 7/5, with a 100% career win rate and a rating of 59.33. Antonio Fresu gets the mount, and the speed figure of 56 is nearly identical to the top pick. If you're playing the exotics, a Baffert-Baffert exacta box is the obvious play, and Domus is a legitimate threat to reverse the order.

show1Phone BoothML 8/1

Phone Booth at 8/1 represents the best of the rest in this small stakes field. Trained by Doug O'Neill with Umberto Rispoli up, Phone Booth carries a 50% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 — matching Domus in raw speed. With three O'Neill trainees in the race, the barn clearly has numbers working in its favor, and Phone Booth is the top-rated of the trio at 48.33.

Race 5

10:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full turf maiden field at 1 1/16 miles where the top three TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by just over two points — tight enough that pace, post, and rider could be the deciding factors.

win6Pentle BayML 6/1

Pentle Bay tops our ratings at 69.24 and is trained by Simon Callaghan, a conditioner with a strong record with turf maidens at Del Mar. Antonio Fresu gets the call, and an average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this group. At 6/1, Pentle Bay is an overlay relative to the rating — the morning line hasn't caught up to what the numbers say, making this not just the top pick but a genuine value play at the projected odds.

place10Apples Y PeachesML 6/1

Apples Y Peaches rates second in the field at 68.18 and draws Kazushi Kimura — currently one of the hottest riders at the meet — for trainer Mike Puype. The average speed of 54 matches the top pick, and Kimura's turf course awareness could be the difference in a tight finish. At 6/1, same price as the win pick, this is a horse worth spreading across your tickets.

show3Peachy CanyonML 4/1

Peachy Canyon at 4/1 is the morning-line second choice and rates third on the TrackWiz scale at 66.85. Umberto Rispoli handles the mount for trainer Lauren Robson, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps her competitive with the top pair. The shorter morning-line price suggests public respect, and with ratings clustered so tightly, Peachy Canyon has every right to land in the superfecta.

Race 6

11:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claiming race where the TrackWiz model flips the morning-line order — the 9/5 favorite isn't the top-rated horse, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win2Shady TigerML 4/1

Shady Tiger rates highest in the field at 83.93 and goes as the 4/1 morning-line second choice — a meaningful disconnect that TrackWiz analysis flags as a value spot. Trained by Philip D'Amato with Antonio Fresu up, Shady Tiger also owns a 36% career win rate, easily the best in this claiming field. That combination of top rating, strong win percentage, and a price above the chalk makes this the most compelling win play on the card.

place6Mici's ExpressML 8/1

Mici's Express is the longshot angle in the place spot, going at 8/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — third in the field and just a few points behind the top pick. Trainer Antonio Garcia sends this one out with Tiago Josue Pereira up, and while the 12% career win rate is modest, the rating model suggests more ability than the odds reflect. In a one-mile dirt race with pace pressure likely, a closer with this rating profile could be getting overlooked.

show1Pioneer PrinceML 9/5

Pioneer Prince is the 9/5 favorite trained by Peter Miller with Joel Rosario aboard, and while the morning line has this one on top, TrackWiz rates it third in the field at 76.10. A 22% career win rate is solid, and Rosario rarely wastes a trip, but the price is likely too short for the win given the horses above it. The show spot makes more sense if you're looking to protect your investment in a competitive field.

Race 7

11:44 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An allowance optional claiming mile and a sixteenth on the turf where the TrackWiz model produces a significant upset angle — the morning-line favorite rates well below the top-rated horse, which goes off at a much bigger price.

win11Quick KateML 4/1

Quick Kate tops the ratings at 83.61 and is the 4/1 morning-line third choice — below the 2/1 favorite Lady In Paris despite carrying a noticeably higher TrackWiz score. Joel Rosario takes over the mount for trainer Craig Lewis, and a 18% career win rate in allowance company reflects consistent competitiveness. At 4/1 with the top rating in the field, Quick Kate is the kind of overlay that serious handicappers look for.

place1Lady RiderML 12/1

Lady Rider is the most interesting number in this race — a 12/1 morning-line price with a TrackWiz rating of 73.96, second-best in the field, and a career win rate of 40% that dramatically outpaces her odds. Vladimir Cerin trains this one with Tyler Baze in the irons, and while 12/1 screams longshot, the rating and win percentage make her anything but a throwout. This is the kind of overlaid place horse that can anchor an exacta or trifecta payout.

show2Lubie's MusicML 8/1

Lubie's Music at 8/1 is trained by Richard Mandella — one of the great turf conditioners in the game — and rates 69.05, comfortably third on the TrackWiz scale. Emisael Jaramillo handles the mount, and a 16% career win rate is workmanlike in open allowance company. At 8/1, the show price will be modest, but the Mandella-Jaramillo connection on a turf route makes this horse a legitimate exotic piece.

Race 8

12:14 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile stakes on the dirt features a pair of horses with elite career win rates lurking beneath the morning-line favorite — the TrackWiz model sees the chalk as vulnerable.

win8AhrensML 7/2

Ahrens leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 76.26 and a 60% career win rate — tied for best in the field — and is trained by John Sadler, one of the most accomplished conditioners in Southern California stakes racing. Hector Isaac Berrios gets the mount at a 7/2 morning-line price that represents solid value given the rating advantage. In a one-mile dirt stakes with a manageable field of eight, Ahrens has the profile to sit just off the pace and pounce late.

place7Ocean BearML 12/1

Ocean Bear is the longshot angle in the place spot, going at 12/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 — virtually matching the top pick — and a career win rate of 60%, tied for best in the race. Umberto Rispoli rides for trainer George Papaprodromou, who has been sharp all meet. The 12/1 morning line is hard to square with a 60% career win rate and a near-top rating, making Ocean Bear one of the more intriguing place overlays on the card.

show3Desert GateML 9/5

Desert Gate is the 9/5 morning-line favorite trained by Bob Baffert with Juan Hernandez aboard, and rates third in the field at 70.86. A 37% career win rate is strong, and the Baffert name always commands attention in stakes spots. However, with an average speed figure of 53 — below both top picks — and a rating gap of over five points to the top selection, this looks like a horse best played at the bottom of a ticket rather than on top.

Race 9

12:44 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A turf stakes mile where two undefeated horses dominate the morning line, but a cluster of experienced closers at attractive prices could make the exotics interesting if the pace collapses.

win4VantaML 2/1

Vanta is the 2/1 morning-line favorite with a 100% career win rate, an average speed figure of 57 — best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 that leads the field. Jeff Mullins trains and Umberto Rispoli rides, a pairing that knows how to win on Del Mar's turf course. The unbeaten record and top speed figure make Vanta the most logical win selection, though short-priced horses in stakes races always carry some risk when facing rivals with more miles on the clock.

place5Dee SnookML 4/1

Dee Snook at 4/1 is trained by Doug O'Neill with Antonio Fresu up, and posts a 50% career win rate with a TrackWiz rating of 55.0 — second in the field. An average speed figure of 55 is competitive, and O'Neill has multiple runners in this race, which means his barn has clearly targeted this spot. Dee Snook is the most natural beneficiary if Vanta encounters any trouble.

show6Less PleaseML 5/1

Less Please at 5/1 rounds out the top three with a TrackWiz rating of 53.33 and a 50% career win rate that matches the place pick. Hector Berrios handles the mount for Edward Freeman, and an average speed figure of 56 is actually second-best in the field — a nugget that could matter in a one-mile turf race where raw speed often determines who can grind out a finish. At 5/1, the show position offers meaningful exotic value.

Race 10

1:14 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A massive 14-horse maiden sprint on the dirt where first-time starters and lightly raced horses with limited public form create a fog of uncertainty — lean on the TrackWiz ratings and trainer-jockey combinations.

win8Nashville ChampML 5/2

Nashville Champ leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 57.5 and is trained by Doug O'Neill with Antonio Fresu in the irons — a reliable pairing for first-out or lightly raced maidens. At 5/2 on the morning line, Nashville Champ is the second choice but the top-rated runner, which is the kind of slight overlay worth targeting. In a chaotic 14-horse maiden field, having the highest rating and a competent trainer-jockey duo is about as good a foundation as you can find.

place7Golden ClubML 3/1

Golden Club rates second in the field at 56.67 and draws Juan J. Hernandez — one of the meet's top riders — for trainer Craig Lewis. An average speed figure of 56 is the best recorded mark in the field among horses with prior starts, which gives Golden Club a measurable edge in speed over much of this group. At 3/1, the morning line respects this one, and Hernandez's ability to get horses into position in large fields makes Golden Club a strong place anchor.

show14Angel's EmberML 5/1

Angel's Ember at 5/1 rates third in the field at 53.33 with an average speed figure of 54, trained by Antonio Garcia with Kazushi Kimura up. Kimura has been one of the most effective riders at the meet and regularly outperforms his mounts' expected finishing positions. In a wide-open maiden with 14 runners, having a live jockey and a legitimate speed figure makes Angel's Ember worth including at the bottom of your tickets.

Race 11

1:44 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A deep 13-horse starter optional claiming field on the turf at 1 1/8 miles where the TrackWiz model identifies a 5/1 price as the top-rated horse — and a 12/1 shot right behind him creates an exotic opportunity.

win4MaximonML 5/1

Maximon leads all runners with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and goes at 5/1 on the morning line — a meaningful overlay for the top-rated horse in a competitive field. Trainer Peter Eurton places horses precisely, and Emisael Jaramillo has been one of the most effective jockeys on the turf all meet. A 25% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 — tied for best in the field — give Maximon both the consistency and the raw ability to handle 1 1/8 miles on grass.

place12Lorenzo BerniniML 12/1

Lorenzo Bernini is the most intriguing price on the ticket at 12/1, despite rating second in the entire field at 72.46. Trained by George Papaprodromou with Antonio Fresu aboard, this horse carries an 11% career win rate that understates the ability suggested by the ratings. In a long-distance turf race where pace can compress and closers get opportunities, Lorenzo Bernini at double-digit odds is exactly the kind of place bomb that makes exotic wagering worthwhile.

show11Moonlit SonataML 5/1

Moonlit Sonata at 5/1 rates 72.22 — essentially tied with Lorenzo Bernini — and draws Kazushi Kimura for trainer Tim Yakteen. The 7% career win rate is low, but the TrackWiz model accounts for overall performance trends beyond just wins, and the rating here is legitimately strong for this class level. Yakteen has been a quietly effective trainer at Del Mar, and Kimura in a turf route is a combination worth respecting at a fair price.

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Bottom line: today's Del Mar card has genuine top-to-bottom interest, with Ah Jeez standing out as our strongest free-play and multiple Stakes races providing premium fireworks. The turf bias angle is real today — keep it in mind all afternoon. Full-card analysis, pace projections, and exotic tickets are waiting for subscribers. Have a great day at the races.

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