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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — September 5, 2026

September 5, 202611 racesAll Del Mar picks

Del Mar is putting on a show today. Clear skies, 79 degrees, and a full 11-race card that spans both the main track and the turf course — it's exactly the kind of Saturday that reminds you why this place is called the track where the turf meets the surf.

The dirt is expected to be fast and the turf should be playing firm under that Southern California sun, which sets the table for some honest pace scenarios and, ideally, some big prices. We've got three stakes races on the card — Races 7, 8, and 10 — giving the afternoon a real stakes-day feel from mid-card all the way to the final turns.

Eleven races. Multiple surfaces. A longshot angle we genuinely like in the late pick sequence. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with two horses separated from the field on TrackWiz ratings, but neither has raced before — first-out unknowns make this a coin flip with upside.

win2On the BurnerML 7/2

On the Burner earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35, and Joel Rosario in the irons is never an accident in a maiden sprint — he's a rider who wins at a high clip when paired with horses the barn believes in. The average speed figure of 55 is solid for a first-time starter at this level, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value if the connections are pointing here with intent. In a field of debutants where so much is unknown, the combination of top rating, elite jockey, and respectable workout speed makes On the Burner the clear top choice.

place4CheeverML 3/1

Cheever sits just a tick below On the Burner at 85.80 on the TrackWiz scale, and Mark Glatt conditions horses that routinely show up ready on debut — he's one of the better maiden trainers at Del Mar. With Abel Lezcano aboard and a 56 average speed, Cheever looks capable of hitting the board even if the win eludes him. At 3/1, he's not a value overlay, but in a place spot he's a logical inclusion in any exotic play.

show6Practical JackML 5/1

Practical Jack at 5/1 morning line is the price play for show tickets. Val Brinkerhoff doesn't always send out barn-burners, but Practical Jack has a 64.24 TrackWiz rating that separates him from the lower-tier horses in this field — most of whom are clustered in the 36-57 range. The 56 average speed is respectable, and in a six-furlong sprint where pace can unravel quickly, a horse with clean tactical ability could sneak into the money.

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

None Above the Law looks like a class standout on the numbers in this 1 3/8-mile turf allowance, but the extreme distance sets up for closers and could scramble the pace scenario.

win6None Above the LawML 5/2

None Above the Law posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 — a clear separation from the rest of the group — and Peter Miller has a strong reputation for placing horses in spots they can handle at this level. Hector Isaac Berrios gets the mount, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the favorite price feels justified given the ratings gap. The 54 average speed is in line with the field, so the edge here is analytical rather than raw pace, and at a route distance of 1 3/8 miles, fitness and trainer intent matter more than early foot.

place2AmplitudeML 8/1

Amplitude at 8/1 is a sneaky inclusion for place honors, and here's why: the 64.32 TrackWiz rating is the second-highest in the field, Joel Rosario rides, and John Sadler has quietly been one of the better turf route trainers on the Southern California circuit for years. The 16% career win rate adds a touch of credibility to the form line, and at that morning line price, Amplitude offers real overlay potential in the exacta.

show7Path To PowerML 4/1

Path To Power is hard to ignore with a 50% career win percentage — that's not a fluke, that's a horse who shows up and finishes his races. Philip D'Amato knows this turf course as well as anyone, and Juan Hernandez is a capable pilot at this route distance. The 55 average speed and 4/1 morning line make this a logical show safety net in what could be a competitive finish behind the top choice.

Race 3

9:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Two Bob Baffert and Michael McCarthy runners tighten up the top of this maiden dirt sprint, with very little separating the top trio — expect a heated pace and a photo or two.

win3Cherry CiderML 4/1

Cherry Cider tops the TrackWiz ratings at 70.18 and carries Bob Baffert's signature prep approach — horses out of this barn rarely debut unready. Juan Hernandez picks up the mount, a solid choice for a six-furlong sprint, and the 54 average speed keeps Cherry Cider competitive on pure pace projections. In a Baffert maiden sprint, the question is usually just how much they've got under the hood — and the ratings suggest there's enough here to get the job done.

place2High Society UML 4/1

High Society U sits at 69.09, essentially neck-and-neck with Cherry Cider on the ratings, and McCarthy routinely turns out first-timers who run to their workouts. Umberto Rispoli is an outstanding turf jockey who handles dirt fine, and at 4/1 morning line, High Society U could easily land on top if Cherry Cider struggles to separate. This is the natural backup in every exotic combination you build around this race.

show4First Or LastML 5/2

First Or Last comes in at 5/2 and has both a 57 average speed — tied for the highest in the field — and Kazushi Kimura, who has been one of the hottest riders in Southern California. Doug O'Neill conditions this one, and he's been particularly sharp with first-time starters going short. The lower TrackWiz rating of 57.5 keeps this horse off the win ticket, but the raw speed and barn connections make First Or Last a strong show contender.

We're unlocking three races for every reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3. In Race 1, On the Burner (morning line 7/2, TrackWiz rating 86.35) headlines a maiden special weight sprint on dirt, and that rating pops off the page in a field that should be light on experience. On the turf side, Race 2 sends None Above the Law (5/2, 87.81) routing at 1 3/8 miles in an allowance optional claiming — a distance where our pace models project a clean setup for closers on a firm course. Rounding out the free card, Race 3 is another dirt maiden sprint where Cherry Cider (4/1, 70.18) is the pick, though the wider morning line signals a more competitive field and we'd treat this one as a live underdog rather than a chalk play.

The through-line connecting these three free picks: the fast, consistent Del Mar main track should reward horses with early tactical speed in the shorter sprints, while the turf course's firmness in Race 2 plays right into a stalker's hands at the longer route distance. Keep that surface read in mind as you work through the rest of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:02 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

On the Whim dominates this turf allowance field on both ratings and career form, but the 1 1/16-mile distance on grass creates a pace scenario that could bring other closers into play.

win7On the WhimML 5/2

On the Whim sits atop the TrackWiz leaderboard at 87.81 with a 29% career win percentage — that's a meaningful record for a horse at this level. Dean Pederson sends this one out with Tiago Josue Pereira in the saddle, and the 57 average speed is the highest in the field. At 5/2 morning line, this is the horse the market respects, and the numbers back it up — On the Whim looks like a legitimate single for win bettors.

place2Lyle The CrocodileML 9/2

Lyle The Crocodile checks in at 70.18 on the TrackWiz scale, which is a strong secondary mark in this field, and Philip D'Amato is a trainer who regularly fires fresh horses into turf routes with purpose. Umberto Rispoli gets the call from post 2, a clean enough gate position to track the pace without getting caught wide. At 9/2, there's mild overlay value for place tickets against what could be a chalky pool.

show5El Rey ReyML 7/2

El Rey Rey brings a 15% career win rate and Kazushi Kimura aboard, a pairing that's worth respecting on any given afternoon. Hector Palma conditions this horse, and the 54 average speed keeps El Rey Rey competitive in this pace scenario. At 7/2, the morning line is relatively short for a show pick, but the career form and jockey quality give this horse legitimate board-hitting upside in a race where the top two could get all the money.

Race 5

10:32 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The largest field on the card makes this maiden optional claimer a chaotic sprint — half the field shows no recorded speed figures, which opens the door for any horse that can run early.

win7CharacterML 3/1

Character draws the top TrackWiz rating among horses with career data at 56.67 and gets Juan Hernandez, one of the most active and successful jockeys in the Southern California colony. Peter Miller conditions, and he's consistently above average with maiden claimers who have a bit of form to work with. The 3/1 morning line makes Character the market's choice, and with so many unknowns in this field, leaning on the highest-rated horse with an elite jockey is sound handicapping.

place5Cigar and EspressoML 4/1

Cigar and Espresso lacks a published average speed figure but still earns a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — the second-best mark in the field — and Victor Garcia trains this one with Umberto Rispoli up, which is a sharp combo to see in a maiden optional claimer. At 4/1, there's fair value here for place purposes, especially given the upside inherent in a horse without a clear form line that connections are still willing to run in decent company.

show10High AmbitionML 5/1

High Ambition shows a 56 average speed and a 53.33 TrackWiz rating, giving Hector Berrios something tangible to work with from post 10. Jose Francisco D'Angelo doesn't always saddle horses at this tier, so the appearance here suggests the connections see a path to the board. At 5/1, High Ambition is the value-minded show play in a wide-open sprint where chaos at the front could benefit a horse sitting off the pace.

Race 6

11:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Cornealeusthegreat owns the class edge on the TrackWiz numbers in this maiden special weight, though the 10-horse field and 6.5-furlong trip could set up a pace duel that plays into late runners.

win7CornealeusthegreatML 7/2

Cornealeusthegreat sits at 86.35 — comfortably the highest rating in this 10-horse field — and Philip D'Amato conditions, a trainer who knows how to spot a horse in a maiden sprint it can handle. Umberto Rispoli gets the call from post 7, and a 54 average speed is respectable in a field where multiple runners show no recorded figures. The 7/2 morning line is fair, not excessive, and the ratings gap alone makes this the strongest top selection on the card today.

place1MickeyML 4/1

Mickey comes in second on the TrackWiz scale at 69.32 with Joel Rosario aboard — that's a jockey who wins at a consistently high rate on first-time starters when a barn ships him one with upside. Val Brinkerhoff trains, and while the barn operates at a smaller volume, the 4/1 morning line suggests some confidence from the connections. Mickey's 54 average speed keeps it competitive, and in a race where the top pick absorbs most of the win action, Mickey is the natural place anchor.

show8ZakielML 3/1

Zakiel at 3/1 catches the eye as the morning-line second choice, trained by Peter Eurton and ridden by Juan Hernandez — both names that routinely appear in the money at Del Mar. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating and 54 average speed give Zakiel a solid floor, and Eurton's horses often run their best in the first couple of tries, making this a credible show option in any exotic structure. The short morning line suggests the market may push Zakiel below his fair value, so check tote odds before buying.

Race 7

11:33 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

With Dang Son scratched, this one-mile turf stakes tightens up, and three horses enter with 100% career win percentages — meaning the pace figures to be honest and the finish could go to the horse who handles the mile distance best.

win5Shadow NationML 5/2

Shadow Nation lands atop our picks with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and a 100% career win percentage, making this horse undefeated through its career samples. Joel Rosario in the irons is as strong a selection as this race could offer, and at 5/2 morning line, Shadow Nation is the expected favorite once the pool opens. The 56 average speed is solid for a turf mile, and a horse that hasn't lost yet with a Hall of Fame-caliber jockey deserves to be on top of every ticket.

place3ObservedML 3/1

Observed is another horse at 100% career win rate and carries Juan Hernandez, a rider who's especially effective on the turf course at Del Mar. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is marginally ahead of Shadow Nation, which makes this a genuine one-two puzzle — the ratings favor Observed slightly, but the morning line at 3/1 and the jockey pairing put it solidly in the place spot. In any race featuring multiple unbeaten horses, the exacta combining these two is where the smart money tends to flow.

show7HoaxerML 4/1

Hoaxer is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Ricardo Gonzalez, a pairing that commands attention at any level — Baffert doesn't run horses without a plan. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating and 56 average speed keep Hoaxer within striking distance of the top two, and at 4/1, the morning line suggests market awareness that this one can run. In a stakes field where three horses are undefeated and the pace could set up for a closers' finish, Hoaxer's profile makes sense as the third piece of a tri.

Race 8

12:03 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

The marquee dirt stakes of the afternoon features two horses with near-identical TrackWiz ratings in the mid-80s — Howin and Magnificat — setting up what could be the most competitive finish of the day.

win6HowinML 5/2

Howin edges out the top rating at 86.62 — barely a hair above Magnificat — and Bob Baffert conditions this one with Juan Hernandez aboard, a combination that has produced winners at Del Mar all meet long. The 28% career win percentage is meaningful at the stakes level, where good horses don't win every time they run, and the 54 average speed is enough to stay involved in a one-mile dirt scenario. At 5/2 on the morning line, Howin is the right top selection, but the margin over Magnificat is razor-thin.

place2MagnificatML 7/2

Magnificat checks in at 86.35 with Joel Rosario up — it doesn't get more pedigreed than Mandella and Rosario in a stakes race on the Southern California circuit. The 50% career win rate is elite for a stakes horse, and the 56 average speed is one of the better marks in this field. At 7/2 morning line, Magnificat offers legitimate win upside too, so treat this as a strong place anchor while keeping it alive on top in your exacta.

show7Our MoonlightML 12/1

Our Moonlight at 12/1 is the best longshot value on the board in this race, backed by a 70.35 TrackWiz rating that sits third in the field. Dean Pederson trains and Tiago Pereira rides, and a 22% career win percentage shows this is a horse that finds its way into the money with regularity. In a competitive stakes race where the top two might run each other into the ground, a fresh-legged closer with solid ratings could sneak into the frame at a juicy price — the show ticket at 12/1 is excellent value.

Race 9

12:33 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Note that the top pick Confetti Rain carries a scratch notation in the data — bettors should verify her status before wagering, as the win analysis is contingent on her running; if scratched, this turf maiden mile becomes genuinely wide open.

win12Confetti RainML EVN

Confetti Rain tops our picks with a 60.0 TrackWiz rating and an EVN (even money) morning line that reflects legitimate market confidence — even money in a maiden field is a strong statement from the oddsmakers. That said, the scratch notation in the data warrants a close look at the official program before placing any bets. If she does run, the even money price suggests connections and the market alike believe she's the standout, and at a mile on the turf, a horse that generates this level of pre-race attention deserves to be on top.

place8DashML 7/2

Dash earns the second-highest TrackWiz rating among confirmed starters at 55.83, and Michael McCarthy's barn is consistently formidable with turf maidens going a route. Ricardo Gonzalez rides from post 8, which sets up a clean outside trip on the turf, and the 55 average speed gives Dash a clear pace edge over most of the field. At 7/2, this is a natural place play regardless of what happens with the top selection.

show9ForewarnML 4/1

Forewarn is another Richard Mandella trainee — he has two in this race — with Umberto Rispoli aboard, and the 55.0 TrackWiz rating puts this horse squarely in the mix. In turf maiden routes, Mandella horses often improve with each start and debut with tactical awareness; Rispoli knows how to position a horse for a late kick at a mile. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and if the race runs evenly up front, Forewarn is well-positioned to be running at the end.

Race 10

1:03 AM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open seven-furlong dirt stakes with two Baffert runners commanded by the market, but TrackWiz analysis breaks sharply toward two longer-priced horses — this is the value race of the card.

win5Free CloserML 8/1

Free Closer tops our analysis at a 79.79 TrackWiz rating despite being listed at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect between price and rating that screams value. Michael McCarthy conditions with Umberto Rispoli aboard, and a 66% career win rate is among the best in this field. The 55 average speed is in line with the group, and in a sprint stakes where the favorites will attract heavy action, Free Closer offers the kind of overlay that serious bettors circle in advance.

place6For the WinML 12/1

For the Win at 12/1 is the deeper value angle in this race, carrying a 73.37 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field behind Free Closer. George Weaver is an accomplished trainer who travels horses to quality spots, and Emisael Jaramillo gets the mount in what could be a pace-setup scenario. A 33% career win rate adds credibility, and at 12/1, the exacta using Free Closer on top of For the Win could pay extremely well if the market ignores both horses.

show9Miss MonicaML 8/5

Miss Monica is the 8/5 morning line favorite and carries a 100% career win rate with Bob Baffert conditioning and Juan Hernandez up — that's a hard combination to dismiss. The 56 average speed is solid, and an unbeaten record at any level commands respect. At short odds, Miss Monica isn't where the value lives, but as a show anchor in a race where our top two selections are overlays, this is the safety net that keeps the ticket alive.

Race 11

1:33 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Multiple scratches reshape this five-furlong turf sprint, with Scene by Me heading the picks despite a scratch notation — verify the field before wagering, and if she's out, Jetovator and Ballyvaughan Gig become the key players in a deep remaining field.

win3Scene by MeML EVN

Scene by Me tops the ratings at 90.0 — the highest TrackWiz score on the entire card — but carries a scratch indicator in the data, so confirm her status before betting. If she runs, an even-money line paired with a 16% career win rate and a 57 average speed makes her the dominant top choice in what would otherwise be a fairly competitive field. At even money, there's no value to manufacture — she simply looks like the best horse in the race if she takes the track.

place11JetovatorML 7/2

Jetovator at 7/2 is the most logical beneficiary if Scene by Me is out, earning an 82.52 TrackWiz rating that towers over the remaining confirmed starters. Peter Eurton trains, Emisael Jaramillo rides, and a 17% career win rate with a 57 average speed makes this horse one of the fastest in the field on paper. In a five-furlong turf sprint, early position matters enormously, and Jetovator has the figures to be right there when it counts.

show9Ballyvaughan GigML 4/1

Ballyvaughan Gig is worth serious consideration as the show pick with the highest average speed in the race at 58 and a 70.63 TrackWiz rating. Kyle Frey has been active and effective at Del Mar this meet, and a 26% career win percentage for Isidro Tamayo's charge shows consistent competitiveness. At 4/1 on the morning line, Ballyvaughan Gig is well-priced for a horse with the top raw speed figure, and in a sprint that can turn into a speed duel, this closer profile could be sitting on a perfect setup.

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A clear Del Mar afternoon, three solid free plays headlined by None Above the Law in the Race 2 turf route, and a legitimate longshot angle with Free Closer in the Race 10 stakes — this card has something for every kind of bettor. Upgrade to premium to get the complete race-by-race analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns before the first race goes off. Good luck out there today.

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