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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 15, 2026

August 15, 202610 racesAll Del Mar picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at the seaside — 77°F, partly cloudy, and the kind of afternoon that makes Del Mar feel like the best zip code in racing. With 10 races spread across dirt and turf, today's card has something for everyone, from maiden openers to a pair of stakes showdowns that could define the Pick 5 sequence.

The turf course figures to be a major story today. Four of the 10 races are contested on the grass, including two stakes — Race 6 at a mile and the feature Race 8 going an extended 1⅜ miles. That distance in Race 8 separates the true routers from the pretenders, and it's the kind of test where TrackWiz analysis really earns its keep. On the dirt, keep an eye on pace scenarios in the sprint races — six furlongs at Del Mar can get extremely fast early, and closers have been picking up the pieces lately.

Three races are free to all readers today, giving you a solid foundation to build your card. The premium breakdown covers the remaining seven, including both stakes and the full exotic ticket structure. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden dirt mile with a clear TrackWiz rating standout at the top, but a wide-open supporting cast that could make the exacta and trifecta interesting.

win5Wolf HillML 7/5

Wolf Hill (5) carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 89.42, and the morning line of 7/5 confirms the market agrees. Trainer Leonard Powell sends him out with Antonio Fresu in the irons — a straightforward setup for a horse whose profile projects as the most accomplished in the field on paper. In a maiden race where all six runners are winless, having that kind of rating separation is meaningful. If he fires his best effort, this field doesn't look like much of a test.

place1Apples Y PeachesML 3/1

Apples Y Peaches (1) sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 76.67 — a solid 12-point gap over the third-ranked runner — and Kazushi Kimura is one of the sharper pilots on the Del Mar circuit. Breaking from the rail in a maiden mile can be tricky, but if the pace unfolds favorably, she gets a clean trip and figures to be right there for a piece.

show3SwimminglyML 6/1

Swimmingly (3) edges out the rest of the field with a 68.46 rating and actually posts the field's best average speed figure at 55, a tick above most rivals. Trainer Aggie Ordonez keeps it simple with Armando Ayuso up, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's solid show-ticket value here if the race sets up with any early pace pressure.

Race 2

9:34 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A turf maiden mile with a legitimate overlay angle at the top and a cluster of evenly-matched runners making the trifecta a real puzzle.

win5Automatic PressML 6/1

Automatic Press (5) is the TrackWiz top selection in this field with a commanding 82.71 rating — nearly 26 points clear of the next horse — yet the morning line opens at 6/1, suggesting the market hasn't fully recognized the edge. Trainer Peter Miller is a Del Mar turf specialist who consistently fires first-out runners, and Hector Isaac Berrios handles the mount. An average speed figure of 55 matches the mid-field on that metric, but the overall rating separation here is hard to ignore.

place7Clear and PresentML 3/1

Clear and Present (7) checks in at 56.67 on the TrackWiz scale and posts a 55 average speed figure, putting her in the mix on pure ability. Philip D'Amato is one of the top trainers in Southern California for turf debuters, and Antonio Fresu gives her a capable hand from post 7. At 3/1, she's fairly priced, and place-ticket buyers get reasonable value if Automatic Press ends up short.

show2ItineraryML 7/2

Itinerary (2) holds the third spot in our ratings at 55.83 and gets the services of Umberto Rispoli, who thrives on Del Mar turf. Michael W. McCarthy trains, and this barn rarely sends out unprepared horses. With no reported average speed figure — suggesting a first-time starter profile — there's natural uncertainty, but the connections alone warrant inclusion in your exotics.

Race 3

10:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This claiming sprint is all about a short-priced favorite versus a pair of sneaky live longshots — pace dynamics over six furlongs could shake things up.

win2Lead Pipe JoeML 2/1

Lead Pipe Joe (2) brings the field's top TrackWiz rating at 77.88 and a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate — by far the highest in this field. Trainer Andy Mathis puts Kyle Frey up at 2/1 on the morning line, which is fair value for a horse this productive. In a six-furlong dirt sprint at the claiming level, a horse that wins half his starts doesn't need many excuses — he just needs to show up.

place6VancougarML 4/1

Vancougar (6) rates 74.97 on the TrackWiz scale — essentially a dead heat with Robarando in the ratings — and posts one of the field's best average speed figures at 56. Trainer Jeff Bonde gets Hector Isaac Berrios up at 4/1, and a 10% career win rate in what appears to be a competitive spot still leaves room to hit the board. If Lead Pipe Joe gets challenged up front, Vancougar has the profile to close into the place slot.

show4RobarandoML 12/1

Robarando (4) is the value angle of this race at 12/1 on the morning line despite a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — the third-best in the field and barely a point behind Vancougar. A 25% career win rate is legitimate, and Edgar Payeras keeps a cool pace in the irons. The wide price likely reflects the soft connections at trainer level, but on ratings and raw numbers, Robarando is significantly undervalued for exotic purposes.

Our three free races today span both surfaces and offer a nice cross-section of what Del Mar is serving up. Wolf Hill opens the dirt action in Race 1 as a 7/5 morning line favorite in a mile maiden special weight — a high TrackWiz rating of 89.42 suggests the line is fair but there may be more horse here than the public realizes once the tote board settles. In Race 2, Automatic Press jumps off the page as a 6/1 shot on the turf — that's the kind of price that gets our attention when the rating backs it up at 82.71. Maiden turf sprints and routes are prime hunting grounds for overlays, and this one deserves a close look. Race 3 brings us back to the dirt for a claiming sprint, where Lead Pipe Joe at 2/1 looks like the natural speed in a race where getting to the front early could be all the advantage needed.

The connecting thread across these three? Pace control and surface familiarity both matter enormously today. The partly cloudy, mild conditions won't introduce any unusual bias, so expect the racing to be fairly honest — which means horses with legitimate class and form should run to their numbers.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A full, sprawling turf sprint field of first-time starters where the top pick stands out clearly, but double-digit program numbers and a 12-horse field create plenty of trifecta chaos.

win10Fair QuestionML 3/1

Fair Question (10) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden at 87.08 — more than 30 points ahead of the third horse in the field — and posts the field's best average speed figure at 56. Trainer Brian J. Koriner sends her out with Antonio Fresu up, a jockey who has been sharp on the Del Mar turf course. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is close to a fair price for the class of the field, and in a wide-open maiden sprint, that kind of rating edge is worth leaning on.

place9A Oh GeeML 7/2

A Oh Gee (9) rates 55.83 for TrackWiz — second in the field — and Peter Miller's barn is always dangerous with a first-time starter on turf. Emisael Jaramillo climbs aboard at 7/2, giving this horse one of the better jockey-trainer combos in the race. The 53 average speed figure is modest, but the overall profile and connections make her a natural place contender in a maiden sprint where things can get scrambled.

show4Mo DiamantesML 4/1

Mo Diamantes (4) sits at 55.00 in the TrackWiz ratings and draws the services of Kazushi Kimura for trainer Mike Puype at 4/1. No average speed figure is available — a first-timer — so there's genuine uncertainty, but the Kimura-Puype combo is worth respecting on the Del Mar lawn. At that morning line, Mo Diamantes offers show-ticket value in a race this deep.

Race 5

11:11 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claiming sprint that pits the top-rated horse against a heavy favorite with a perfect win record — this is a legitimate clash of form versus public money.

win7Bourbon and SpiceML 4/1

Bourbon and Spice (7) earns the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 85.62 — more than 24 points clear of Famous Forza — and sits at a juicy 4/1 on the morning line despite that edge. Joel Rosario is one of the best in the business, and Leonard Powell keeps a sharp stable. A 20% career win rate is solid for this level, and the pace scenario over six furlongs could set up beautifully for a horse of this rating caliber.

place1Famous ForzaML 6/1

Famous Forza (1) leads the field in average speed figure at 57 and brings a 16% career win rate into the gate. Trainer Bill McLean sends her to the post with Emisael Jaramillo, a jockey who handles the front-running style well. At 6/1, she's an appealing place play — if she gets the early lead in this sprint, she could prove difficult to reel in.

show4Miss HellfireML 7/5

Miss Hellfire (4) owns a 100% career win rate — she's literally undefeated — and Kazushi Kimura riding for Mike Puype is a sharp combo at 7/5. The TrackWiz rating of 59.33 ranks third in the field, which is why we slot her show rather than higher, but an unbeaten horse at any level commands respect. She's the kind of horse you don't leave out of your exotics.

Race 6

11:41 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A full-field turf mile stakes loaded with contenders — Grand Slam Smile tops the ratings as the morning line favorite, but three horses within five points of each other at the top make this a compelling multi-race puzzle.

win6Grand Slam SmileML 8/5

Grand Slam Smile (6) leads all starters with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with a 55% career win rate — dominant numbers in a competitive stakes field. Juan J. Hernandez gets the call for trainer Sean McCarthy, and an average speed figure of 56 ties the field's best. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price isn't exciting, but the underlying data is about as strong as you'll find in a graded-level field.

place7Can't SleepML 4/1

Can't Sleep (7) is just 0.36 rating points behind Grand Slam Smile at 84.76, but the real standout is her average speed figure of 58 — the best in the field by two full points. Trainer Carla Gaines saddles this runner at 4/1, and a 37% career win rate suggests she knows how to get a horse to the wire. She's the natural pick to finish right behind the favorite and offers better value than the win pool.

show5Take Another CardML 5/1

Take Another Card (5) rounds out a tight top trio at 83.34, matching Grand Slam Smile's average speed figure of 56 and carrying a 22% career win rate. Umberto Rispoli is a polished turf rider for trainer Simon Callaghan, and at 5/1 morning line, there's solid show value here. In a 12-horse stakes field where pace can get complicated, this horse has the talent to land a piece.

Race 7

12:12 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dirt maiden sprint at 5½ furlongs where trainer pedigree matters as much as the ratings — Baffert and Sadler saddle the co-favorites, and no one in this field has a speed figure to anchor confidence.

win5InshallahML 2/1

Inshallah (5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and draws the coveted Joel Rosario mount for Hall of Famer John W. Sadler — a pairing that consistently produces results on opening weekends. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's the logical public choice, and the Sadler-Rosario combo alone gives casual bettors and serious handicappers alike a reason to include her. No average speed figure is available for this first-timer, so you're betting on connections and potential, but that's exactly the angle in maiden races.

place1EmancipateML 5/2

Emancipate (1) rates 57.50 — just a hair behind Inshallah — and gets Bob Baffert's primary runner slot with Juan J. Hernandez aboard at 5/2. Baffert's barn has an elite history of winning with first-time starters, particularly in sprint distances on dirt. From the rail, the trip can go either way, but Baffert horses rarely show up unprepared, making Emancipate a natural place contender.

show8DomeniciML 6/1

Domenici (8) rates 51.67 and draws trainer Tim Yakteen, who has established himself as one of the more dangerous conditioners in Southern California since taking over a large book of horses. Antonio Fresu gets the mount at 6/1 — a fair price for a third horse in what shapes as a two-horse race on paper. If the top two fade or encounter traffic, Domenici is well-positioned from post 8 to grab a piece.

Race 8

12:43 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

A turf marathon stakes — 1 3/8 miles is a true test of stamina — where the top-rated runner at 8/1 makes a compelling overlay case against a field where no single horse dominates.

win1Lubie's MusicML 8/1

Lubie's Music (1) tops the field with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating and goes postward with Emisael Jaramillo for Richard E. Mandella — one of the most respected turf trainers in Southern California history. At 8/1, this is the definition of a value play: the top-rated runner at a generous price. A 20% career win rate is respectable, and the 55 average speed figure is middle-of-the-road for this group, but in a route on the lawn, Mandella's patient training style often translates well late in the trip.

place10Candy BarML 8/1

Candy Bar (10) brings a 70.28 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — with a 56 average speed figure that ranks among the best here. Trainer Jose R. Valdez sends her out with Abel Lezcano at 8/1, matching the win pick's price and making this an intriguing exacta box. A 16% career win rate won't excite anyone, but the raw speed and rating numbers suggest she's capable of hanging around for a piece at a long distance.

show5VrontiML 5/2

Vronti (5) has the field's best career win rate at 40% — genuinely elite for a stakes-level runner — and gets Umberto Rispoli for H. Graham Motion, a trainer who excels with European-bred types at route distances on turf. The 67.53 TrackWiz rating slots her third, and at 5/2 on the morning line she's clearly the public's second choice. The win rate here is exceptional and makes her a strong show anchor for exotic tickets.

Race 9

1:14 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint with a runaway TrackWiz leader at the top, but a field full of unknowns — including two horses showing scratched jockey entries — adds a layer of unpredictability.

win1Captain GabeML 3/1

Captain Gabe (1) tops the field at 87.08 on the TrackWiz scale — a significant edge in a maiden claiming field — and draws Kazushi Kimura for Michael W. McCarthy, a trainer who consistently competes at the top of the Del Mar meet. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for the ability gap he holds over his rivals. A 54 average speed figure is in line with the field, but the rating separation is what matters most here.

place3TreximoML 5/1

Treximo (3) rates 66.54 — second in the field by a clear margin — and Adrian Escobedo gets the mount for trainer Ryan Hanson at 5/1. A 54 average speed figure is consistent with the mid-field, and as a horse priced outside the top two, Treximo offers solid place-ticket value in a race that appears to have a clear top horse. If Captain Gabe has any stumble, Treximo is the most logical beneficiary.

show10Sigma BoyML EVN

Sigma Boy (10) shows a 60.00 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure — competitive numbers in this field — but the jockey entry reads as scratched in our data, which introduces meaningful risk. If Sigma Boy does run with an assigned rider, the rating slots him third and the morning line EVN odds suggest the connections are confident. Proceed with caution and confirm the scratch status before wagering.

Race 10

1:45 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A deep allowance optional claiming mile on the turf to close out the card — Steak Fries holds a clear rating edge, but Known Idea at 8/1 is the overlay that sharp bettors will circle.

win3Steak FriesML 7/2

Steak Fries (3) leads the field at 82.74 on the TrackWiz scale and matches that with the field's best average speed figure at 56. Joel Rosario climbs aboard for Craig Anthony Lewis, and a 33% career win rate is excellent for the allowance optional claiming level. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse that checks nearly every box — top rating, top jockey, strong win percentage, and elite speed numbers for the group.

place6Known IdeaML 8/1

Known Idea (6) rates 79.79 on the TrackWiz scale — essentially tied with Steak Fries in the big picture — yet opens at 8/1 on the morning line, representing real overlay value. Antonio Fresu handles the mount for trainer George Papaprodromou, and a 23% career win rate is solid for this level. If Steak Fries takes all the money and runs flat, Known Idea has the raw numbers to land the place spot and pay nicely.

show9Lyle The CrocodileML 4/1

Lyle The Crocodile (9) slots third in our ratings at 60.71 and posts a 56 average speed figure, tying Steak Fries and Yacowlef for the field's best on that metric. Umberto Rispoli rides for Philip D'Amato — a trainer who wins at a high clip in turf routes at Del Mar — and the 4/1 morning line reflects the public's respect for this entry. Speed figure players will want this horse in their trifecta underneath.

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Bottom line: today's Del Mar card is deep, the conditions are clean, and there are real opportunities from top to bottom. Wolf Hill, Automatic Press, and Lead Pipe Joe give free readers a strong starting point. Subscribers get seven more races of detailed analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket construction — including a close look at both turf stakes. Good luck at the windows.

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