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Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 14, 2026

August 14, 20268 racesAll Del Mar picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Del Mar — clear skies, 77 degrees, and a light ocean breeze that makes the turf courses play fast and fair. Eight races are on the board today, split across dirt and turf, with conditions that should favor clean-running, pace-pressing types. No excuses from connections today: if your horse loses, it's not the weather.

The card has some real texture to it. You've got maiden special weights mixing with claimers across multiple surfaces, a pair of turf sprints that could produce some sneaky pace scenarios, and a morning line that's already showing some soft spots our model wants to attack. Three races are fully unlocked for all TrackWiz readers — the rest sit behind the premium wall, and trust us, there's meat on those bones.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stanford Dropout carries a massive TrackWiz rating advantage into this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, but Jalisco and a sneaky longshot in Eielson make the bottom of the ticket worth protecting.

win3Stanford DropoutML 2/1

Stanford Dropout is the clear class of this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — more than 16 points clear of the next-best horse. Trainer Brian Koriner sends him out with Armando Ayuso up, and the 2/1 morning line reflects what the market already knows: this horse belongs on top. His average speed figure of 56 edges most of the field, and a 20% career win rate shows he converts when conditions are right. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, there's nothing in here that should run him off his feet early.

place1JaliscoML 3/1

Jalisco (No. 1) checks in with a 72.37 rating — second-best in the field — and gets one of the meet's sharper riders in Kazushi Kimura. Trainer Doug O'Neill has two horses in this race, which tells you he's confident in the barn's form, and Jalisco at 3/1 offers fair place value if Stanford Dropout steals the win. A 12% career win rate is modest, but place horses don't need to win — they need to stay close, and Jalisco's profile suggests he can do that.

show5EielsonML 8/1

Eielson at 8/1 is the longshot worth a show ticket and a spot in your exacta/trifecta keys. His 56.25 rating is actually mid-pack competitive, and trainer Craig Dollase knows how to place horses in spots they can run. The 8% career win rate won't wow anyone, but in a seven-horse claimer, show positions are attainable, and the price makes Eielson a worthwhile exotic play.

Race 2

9:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open turf maiden at a mile with a full field of first-timers or lightly raced maidens — Let Her Fly owns the biggest rating gap in the field, but the Queenofthewild-D'Amato angle keeps things interesting.

win4Let Her FlyML 5/2

Let Her Fly carries an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the lone horse in this field that separates herself from the pack in a meaningful way. Trainer Doug O'Neill throws Emisael Jaramillo on her back, a strong jockey-trainer pairing at Del Mar. She's logged a 55 average speed figure in her limited work, which is competitive for a maiden turf mile, and the 5/2 morning line confirms the market isn't sleeping on her. In a race where most of the field has no published speed figures at all, any form edge is magnified.

place5QueenofthewildML 7/2

Queenofthewild (No. 5) is trained by Philip D'Amato, who is one of the premier turf conditioners on the West Coast — that angle alone bumps her value in a maiden turf race. She opens at 7/2, and while she shows no recorded speed figure, D'Amato's turf maidens routinely improve sharply in their early starts. Antonio Fresu has been a reliable partner for D'Amato this meet, making this a connections play worth respecting in the place and exacta slots.

show1Janie Not JeanieML 4/1

Janie Not Jeanie (No. 1) is one of two O'Neill entries in this race, priced at 4/1 and holding a 55 TrackWiz rating — tied for second-best in the field. She posts a 56 average speed figure, the highest in the race alongside Let Her Fly, which gives her a real form edge over the no-figure maidens. The rail post is a double-edged sword on turf, but Juan Hernandez is capable of navigating it, and she's live for the show slot and exotic coverage.

Race 3

10:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Redial heads into this mile dirt claimer as a TrackWiz top-rated overlay — he's priced at 4/1 despite rating out above the 8/5 favorite Che, setting up a potential value win scenario.

win4RedialML 4/1

Redial owns an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, best in the field, yet opens at 4/1 — longer than the 8/5 morning line on Che. That's a meaningful overlay for our top pick. Tiago Josue Pereira gets the call for trainer Antonio Garcia, and while Redial's 12% career win rate is modest, the rating advantage over a seven-horse field is the kind of edge that produces value returns. His 53 average speed figure is right in the mix, and a one-mile dirt trip should suit a closer-type profile in a race that figures to have some pace up front.

place3CheML 8/5

Che (No. 3) draws the market favorite nod at 8/5 and has plenty going for him — trainer Doug O'Neill, jockey Kazushi Kimura, and a 78.74 TrackWiz rating that's legitimately strong. The caveat is that Redial rates out above him despite opening at a longer price, which is why we slot Che for place rather than win. A 16% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure fit the field norms, and he'll likely set or press the pace, making him a live contender for the top two spots.

show6SkyquistML 12/1

Skyquist is the value add here — a 12/1 morning line horse with a 71.19 TrackWiz rating that is actually third-best in the race. Trainer Patrick Gallagher sends him out with Drayden Van Dyke in the irons, a legitimate pilot who knows Del Mar. A 25% career win rate is encouraging, and the price makes him an essential trifecta inclusion. If the chalk runs into trouble or a pace meltdown develops, Skyquist could easily sneak into the top three.

Our three free best bets today span both surfaces and all three give you something to work with beyond the chalk. Stanford Dropout opens the day at 2/1 on the dirt in Race 1 — a claiming sprint where our rating of 88.54 tops the field by a comfortable margin. In Race 2, Let Her Fly gets a shot at a mile on the turf in a Maiden Special Weight, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's still genuine value if the projected pace scenario sets up the way we expect. Redial rounds out the free card in Race 3 — a 4/1 shot on a dirt mile that our model grades out at 85.62, good enough to make a strong case as a potential overlay once pools develop.

The connecting thread across all three? Each of these horses is stepping into a pace scenario where the front end could get soft — and all three profiles suggest they'll be running on at the top of the stretch. Keep an eye on early fractions; if the pace collapses, these horses get a significant boost.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:34 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Ten horses go to the gate in this mile turf claimer, and Mr. Leasure stands out as the class of the field at a fair price — but a deep, double-digit field means the exotics could get expensive fast.

win6Mr. LeasureML 7/2

Mr. Leasure (No. 6) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and opens at a fair 7/2 with Antonio Fresu up for trainer Steve Knapp. A 15% career win rate in a field where turf mile specialists are the norm is workable, and his 54 average speed figure is solid. Fresu has been effective at Del Mar and pairs well with Knapp's patient approach — in a ten-horse turf mile, the ability to rate off the pace and unleash late is a real asset, and that's the profile Mr. Leasure fits.

place1Ah JeezML 4/1

Ah Jeez (No. 1) rates out second in the field at 78.12 with trainer Doug O'Neill and Emisael Jaramillo teaming up — a combination that hits consistently at this meet. He carries a 55 average speed figure, which is among the higher marks in the field, and a 10% career win rate in a claimer isn't disqualifying. The rail post on turf at Del Mar is a bit of a lottery draw, but Jaramillo is savvy enough to find a path, and 4/1 is fair place value if Mr. Leasure takes the win.

show4MubtadaaML 6/1

Mubtadaa (No. 4) brings the highest average speed figure in the race at 57 and gets Joel Rosario — one of the best riders in the country — for trainer Vladimir Cerin. His 71.17 TrackWiz rating ranks third in the field, and a 14% career win rate is respectable. At 6/1, he's a legitimate show contender and an important piece of any trifecta or superfecta ticket in a wide field where the top three slots could go several different directions.

Race 5

11:06 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Jetway comes in as a heavy morning-line favorite in this maiden claimer sprint, and the TrackWiz numbers back it up — the question is whether the 7/5 price leaves enough value to make a ticket worthwhile.

win6JetwayML 7/5

Jetway (No. 6) leads all runners with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating and draws Joel Rosario for trainer John Sadler — a Hall of Fame-caliber trainer paired with one of the sport's elite jockeys is exactly the kind of angle that produces short-priced winners. His 56 average speed figure is tied for tops in the field, and the 7/5 morning line reflects real market confidence. In a seven-horse maiden claimer at six furlongs on dirt, Jetway looks like the kind of horse who can clear the field wire-to-wire or stalk and pounce — Sadler tends to have these types fit and ready.

place4BroheimML 3/1

Broheim (No. 4) is the logical main alternative at 3/1 with Juan Hernandez up for trainer Michael McCarthy. He carries a 74.78 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and a 55 average speed figure that fits the sprint distance. McCarthy is a savvy conditioner who places his maidens wisely, and Hernandez gives him every chance to run his race. If Jetway gets bet down even further, Broheim at 3/1 becomes a relative value in the place pool.

show3Elusive ConML 6/1

Elusive Con (No. 3) sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 68.86 and opens at 6/1 with Emisael Jaramillo in the saddle for trainer Christopher Davis. He sports a 55 average speed figure that keeps him competitive in the field, and Jaramillo's experience gives him a tactical edge in a speed-heavy sprint. At 6/1, Elusive Con is a useful show ticket and trifecta component — his rating gap over the rest of the bottom half of the field is real.

Race 6

11:36 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A full twelve-horse field in this five-furlong turf AOC creates a chaotic pace scenario — Frank Bullitt tops the ratings, but Disko Tribute's speed figures and Kazushi Kimura's hot hand make the exacta box look appealing.

win1Frank BullittML 3/1

Frank Bullitt (No. 1) leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and posts the top average speed figure at 57 — tied with Disko Tribute. Trainer Debbie Winick sends him out with Tyler Baze, a seasoned Del Mar hand who knows every inch of the turf course. A 14% career win rate may look modest, but at five furlongs on turf, pace and positioning are everything, and Bullitt's profile suggests he has the pure speed to sit near the front and dare horses to catch him. At 3/1, this is a fair-priced top selection.

place12Disko TributeML 4/1

Disko Tribute (No. 12) matches Bullitt's 57 average speed figure and checks in at 82.58 on the TrackWiz scale — second in the field. The 4/1 morning line and trainer Craig Dollase's 24% career win rate for his runners make this a live place threat. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount, and he's been among the top pilots at this Del Mar meet — in a field this large on a short turf sprint, getting a hot jockey on a horse with elite speed figures is the kind of angle that builds trifecta tickets.

show4Lucky N SmartML 9/2

Lucky N Smart (No. 4) is trained by Carla Gaines, who boasts a 33% career win rate with this horse — the best in the field. A 78.21 TrackWiz rating ranks third in the race, and a 56 average speed figure is competitive. Kazushi Kimura is listed here as well, though program numbers differ from Disko Tribute — either way, Lucky N Smart at 9/2 represents good show value in a large field where the third-best horse often gets lost in the wagering pools.

Race 7

12:06 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Howie's Law is a short-priced favorite in this 6½-furlong dirt starter optional claimer, but the clustering of ratings at the top of this field makes the pace scenario genuinely unclear — value lives underneath.

win6Howie's LawML 7/5

Howie's Law (No. 6) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59.33 and carries the meet's best jockey-trainer story — trainer Doug O'Neill paired with Emisael Jaramillo, a combination that has shown up consistently at Del Mar this meet. A 50% career win rate is elite and commands respect at any odds, and his 57 average speed figure is the highest in the race by a clear margin. At 7/5, the price isn't exciting, but the combination of top speed, top rating, and a 50% win strike rate is genuinely difficult to argue against.

place1Got'm Cot'mML 4/1

Got'm Cot'm (No. 1) opens at 4/1 with Joel Rosario up and rates out at 57.58 — second-best in the field. His 56 average speed figure is competitive, and Rosario is the kind of rider who can get a horse into position in a seven-horse sprint. The 7% career win rate is the asterisk, but place finishes don't require past wins — Got'm Cot'm's rating says he belongs in the conversation for the top two spots, and the 4/1 price offers legitimate place value.

show5Wall StreetML 3/1

Wall Street (No. 5) brings a 50% career win rate — matching the favorite's — and a 56.67 TrackWiz rating, just a tick below Got'm Cot'm. Trainer Vladimir Cerin sends him out with Umberto Rispoli, a sharp jockey who runs well on dirt. At 3/1, Wall Street is actually shorter than the place pick, which tells you the market sees him as a live horse — he's a sound show and trifecta option who has the win rate history to suggest he knows how to finish.

Race 8

12:35 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Danzing Daisy stands out sharply in this ten-horse maiden turf mile with a rating nearly 22 points clear of the field — but at 5/1, there may be more value here than the morning line suggests for a horse with this kind of edge.

win4Danzing DaisyML 5/1

Danzing Daisy (No. 4) carries an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a substantial margin — and gets Armando Ayuso up for trainer Sean McCarthy. Her 55 average speed figure is right at the top of the field and gives her a tangible form edge in a race where several horses show no recorded figures at all. In a ten-horse maiden turf mile, pace can be tricky, but a horse with this kind of rating separation doesn't need a perfect trip to win — she needs to run her race, and 5/1 is a generous price for a horse who rates this far clear of the competition.

place3Risky PleasureML 7/2

Risky Pleasure (No. 3) is the market's second choice at 7/2 and rates out at 62.34 — a legitimate second-best in the field. Juan Hernandez gets the mount for trainer Craig Anthony Lewis, and a 55 average speed figure matches Danzing Daisy's top mark. In a maiden turf mile where pace collapse is always possible, Risky Pleasure looks like a horse who can sit just off the lead and pick up pieces — the 7/2 morning line suggests the market sees her the same way, making her a solid place and exacta component.

show1Native EmpressML 8/1

Native Empress (No. 1) opens at 8/1 and holds a 57.90 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — making her arguably underpriced on the morning line relative to her rating. Trainer Tim McCanna sends her out with Kyle Frey, and her 55 average speed figure keeps her competitive in the field's upper tier. In a ten-horse maiden turf mile at Del Mar, the show slot is genuinely attainable for a horse rated this cleanly above the middle of the pack, and 8/1 makes Native Empress an excellent show ticket and trifecta piece.

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A clean, sunny day at Del Mar with eight races and plenty of angles to dig into. Stanford Dropout, Let Her Fly, and Redial are your free best bets — all three come with pace scenarios we like and morning line prices that leave room for value. For the full-card breakdown including Jetway, Frank Bullitt, Danzing Daisy, and our exotic wager strategies, subscribers have everything waiting for them. Good luck at the windows today — let's make it a profitable Friday.

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