Unlock the other 7 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Del Mar Picks & Predictions — August 16, 2026

August 16, 202610 racesAll Del Mar picks

Sunday at Del Mar — does it get any better? Clear skies, 77 degrees, a cool Pacific breeze rolling off the ocean, and a 10-race card that gives you something to think about from the first gate break to the finale. This is summer racing at its finest, and the turf course figures to be playing fast after a string of dry, sunny afternoons.

Today's card has a nice mix of conditions — four turf routes and sprints, four dirt races, and a stakes showdown in Race 5 that's the obvious centerpiece of the afternoon. We've got maiden fields trying to break their duck, claimers grinding it out, and allowance horses moving up the ladder. Whether you're here to win the Pick 5 or just have a rooting interest in the late double, there's plenty to work with.

TrackWiz has you covered on all 10 races. The first three are on the house — free best bets with full analysis. Races 4 through 10 are unlocked for subscribers, including our pace projections, exotic ticket structures, and the full-card breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden turf route at 1 1/16 miles where one horse stands clearly above the field on paper — the question is whether the morning-line favorite justifies the short price or if the rest of the field can get competitive.

win4Bull ShoalsML 7/5

Bull Shoals is the standout in this maiden turf field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 that towers over everyone else in the field. Trainer Jena M. Antonucci sends this one out at a 7/5 morning line, suggesting connections are confident, and jockey Jose E. Morelos gets the call. In maiden special weight company, this kind of rating gap is hard to overcome — Bull Shoals looks like the one to beat at first asking.

place1Royal RumorML 3/1

Royal Rumor draws the rail with a 59.55 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and gets Emisael Jaramillo up for Carla Gaines. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's some overlay potential here if Bull Shoals stumbles, and the turf route distance could suit a horse breaking from the inside post.

show5Going NowhereML 7/2

Going Nowhere at 7/2 rounds out our top three with a 48.77 rating and Armando Ayuso in the irons for Ryan Hanson. In a maiden field with tight bunching among the middle horses, this one has enough to compete for a slice of the purse and makes sense as a show option in exotics.

Race 2

9:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This short-field claiming sprint on the dirt has a pair of horses with nearly identical top ratings and a longshot sitting on a career 50% win rate — pace should be honest and the order of finish may come down to the wire.

win7JasminaML 3/1

Jasmina tops our ratings at 83.94 and carries the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 33%. Trainer Victor L. Garcia has two horses in this race, which often signals confidence in at least one of them, and Kyle Frey gets the mount. At a morning-line 3/1 in a claiming sprint, Jasmina offers solid value alongside a strong profile.

place5Chasing KatML 5/1

Chasing Kat rates out at 82.60 — just a hair behind Jasmina — and comes in with a 15% career win rate for trainer George Papaprodromou, who knows how to spot these spots. Roxane Liegeois rides, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this one looks like a natural to hit the board in a tight contest.

show8Lovely MedagliaML 8/1

Lovely Medaglia at 8/1 is the sleeper of the race — a 50% career win rate is the single best mark in the field, and Epifanio Garcia handles the mount for D. Wayne Baker. The morning-line price likely reflects current form, but a horse who's won half her starts isn't someone you want to completely throw out of your exotics.

Race 3

10:04 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden dirt sprint with ten runners, several first-time starters, and no clear class separator — the pace should be hot and the winner could come from anywhere in the field.

win7RepoML 5/2

Repo is our top selection at 5/2 on the morning line, carrying a 57.50 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — with Umberto Rispoli aboard for trainer Michael W. McCarthy. McCarthy is a name you want to see in maiden sprints; he places horses well and Rispoli is one of the sharper pilots in the jock colony. With a 55 average speed figure, Repo has logged work and looks ready to run.

place1Angel's EmberML 4/1

Angel's Ember draws the rail with a 55.00 TrackWiz rating for trainer Antonio C. Garcia, with Juan J. Hernandez getting the call. Listed as a first-time starter without a recorded average speed, this one is a projection play — but the rating suggests the works have been promising and the 4/1 morning line is fair.

show2Empire of AshML 5/1

Empire of Ash also comes in without a recorded average speed figure but rates out at 53.33, third-best in this field, for trainer George Papaprodromou with Antonio Fresu up. The 5/1 price makes this horse a reasonable show inclusion in a race where several others are starting from scratch with little public form to go on.

The free races today give you an early read on how both surfaces are playing. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf with Bull Shoals posted as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 — our TrackWiz rating of 89.42 agrees with the crowd here, and with the Del Mar turf firm and true, closers who can find a clean trip on the rail should get every opportunity. Race 2 flips to the dirt for a 5½-furlong claiming sprint, where Jasmina comes in at 3/1 with an 83.94 rating — keep an eye on early speed bias through the first couple of races, because what you see in Race 2 will tell you a lot about how to approach the dirt in the back half of the card.

Race 3 is a maiden special weight on the dirt going 6 furlongs, and Repo at 5/2 on the morning line is our top selection despite a rating of 57.5 — this is the most wide-open of the three free races, and frankly, maiden dirt sprints at Del Mar can produce some wild results. Use Repo as your anchor but leave room in your exotic tickets for live longshots.

Send me tomorrow's free Del Mar card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:38 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

An allowance optional claiming sprint on the turf where a Mark Glatt-trained horse carries both the best rating and a standout average speed figure, but a trio of live mid-priced horses could make this more than a one-horse show.

win5Scene by MeML 4/1

Scene by Me is our top pick with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, a 20% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 57 — tied for the best in the field. Joel Rosario, one of the best turf riders in the country, gets the mount for Mark Glatt, a trainer who consistently fires at Del Mar. The 4/1 morning line is workable given the credentials.

place3Disko TributeML 3/1

Disko Tribute comes in with a 74.29 rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 — matching Scene by Me — for trainer Craig Dollase with Kazushi Kimura aboard. At 3/1 on the morning line, Disko Tribute is the likely second betting choice and a logical place horse if the top pick gets beat in a tight photo.

show8Hacking It UpML 7/2

Hacking It Up rates third in the field at 70.91 and brings a 25% career win rate — best among the full field — for Peter Miller with Antonio Fresu in the saddle. Miller is one of the sharpest trainers at Del Mar and a 7/2 morning line suggests this one will attract plenty of action; including it in exactas and trifectas makes sense.

Race 5

11:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A stakes sprint on the dirt that looks like a two-horse race on paper, with the morning-line favorite carrying a dominant 80% career win rate against a proven rival — but in stakes company, anything can happen.

win5Sweet AztecaML 4/5

Sweet Azteca is as dominant a profile as you'll see in any race on this card — a 90.00 TrackWiz rating (top of the entire card), an 80% career win rate, and a 4/5 morning line that says the public agrees. Juan J. Hernandez rides for trainer Richard Baltas, who has two horses in this race. At this win percentage, Sweet Azteca isn't just the pick — she's the kind of horse you build your exotic sequences around.

place1ThermalML 6/5

Thermal rates second in the field at 82.69 with a 30% career win rate and has Joel Rosario in the irons for John W. Sadler — one of the most respected trainers on the Southern California circuit. At 6/5 on the morning line, Thermal will likely be heavily backed and is the clear second choice if Sweet Azteca misses.

show6Sweet Gal of MineML 12/1

Sweet Gal of Mine is the value angle in this race at 12/1 on the morning line despite a 53.32 rating — third-best in the field. Trainer Richard Baltas doubles up here, and running a stablemate alongside Sweet Azteca could either help or complicate the pace scenario. Mike E. Smith handles the mount, and at double-digit odds, this one is worth a small show bet or a trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

11:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A sprawling maiden claiming route on the dirt with two scratches thinning the field, leaving a wide-open contest where our top pick goes off at 12/1 — value hunters take notice.

win8H Q WilsonML 12/1

H Q Wilson is our top selection at 12/1 on the morning line despite carrying the best TrackWiz rating among active runners at 73.96. Kazushi Kimura gets the mount for Philip D'Amato, a trainer who knows how to spot maiden claimers and usually has his horses ready when he enters them. In a field this deep with scrambled morning-line prices, this is a prime overlay opportunity.

place3King of SuccessML 6/1

King of Success rates out at 68.59 — second in the active field — with Tiago Josue Pereira aboard for trainer Jeff Bonde. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a fair price for a horse whose profile suggests he can handle the 1 1/16-mile dirt distance. A place wager here offers solid risk-reward in a race without a clear favorite.

show5My Man Joe RoldanML 6/1

My Man Joe Roldan at 6/1 brings a 59.70 rating and gets Joel Rosario — one of the best big-race jockeys in the game — for trainer Aggie Ordonez. The combination of Rosario's tactical awareness over a mile-plus route and a competitive rating makes this one a logical show anchor in your trifecta tickets.

Race 7

12:18 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf allowance optional claimer where the top-rated horse has a clear edge on our numbers, but the place and show picks at 8/1 and 7/2 respectively offer compelling exotic value if the chalk runs into trouble.

win1GoodiesML 3/1

Goodies tops this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — that's a strong conversion number at the allowance level. Hector Isaac Berrios rides for Philip D'Amato, a trainer who excels on Del Mar turf and consistently puts his horses in position to win at this level. At 3/1 on the morning line, Goodies is a comfortable top choice.

place2Miso PhansyML 8/1

Miso Phansy rates at 72.55 — second in the field — with a 27% career win rate for trainer Leonard Powell. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate overlay if the price holds; a horse with a 27% career win rate at allowance level often goes overlooked when a flashier name dominates the wagering. Armando Ayuso handles the trip.

show4CiprianiML 7/2

Cipriani brings a 68.25 rating and a 20% career win rate, and the Bob Baffert connection is never something you dismiss lightly. Juan J. Hernandez gets the call, and at 7/2, Cipriani is well within striking range on a turf mile where pace scenarios can shift quickly in the final turn.

Race 8

12:49 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open one-mile dirt claiming race with eleven horses and two horses separated by just 0.13 rating points at the top — the exotics could pay well if you can sort out the deep mid-field.

win1Mongolian MaxML 5/2

Mongolian Max tops our ratings at 84.21 with Antonio Fresu up for trainer Steven Miyadi. The 5/2 morning line is the shortest in the field and reflects both the rating edge and likely public support. With a 13% career win rate in claiming company, Mongolian Max hasn't been dominant, but the rating suggests recent form trends in the right direction.

place9Leyas CandyML 3/1

Leyas Candy is razor-close to Mongolian Max at 84.08 — essentially a dead heat on our model — and gets Edwin A. Maldonado for trainer Andrew Harris. At 3/1 on the morning line, Leyas Candy could easily be the winner here, and if you're playing the race, keying both top-rated horses across your exacta tickets is a smart approach.

show10Cupid's CrusaderML 8/1

Cupid's Crusader at 8/1 rates third in the field at 79.79 with Joe Bravo aboard for Genaro Vallejo. In a one-mile dirt route with a big field, a horse with this kind of rating sitting near double-digit odds is exactly the type of show anchor or trifecta inclusion that pays dividends over the long run.

Race 9

1:19 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

An eleven-horse turf sprint at 5 furlongs where the top ratings cluster tightly between 76 and 78 — this is a race built for exacta and trifecta players who can identify a pace scenario and trust their depth.

win8GettinbyML 4/1

Gettinby leads our analysis with a 78.03 rating, a 40% career win rate — elite for this field — and Juan J. Hernandez aboard for trainer Sean Williams. A horse who's won 40% of career starts in allowance optional claiming company is a horse with proven competitive ability, and the 4/1 morning line is fair value given those numbers.

place9GabaldonML 10/1

Gabaldon is our value play of the race — rated 76.88 and carrying an average speed figure of 58 (tied for best in field), this one goes off at 10/1 on the morning line. Emisael Jaramillo rides for Jose Francisco D'Angelo, and a 28% career win rate on a horse at double-digit odds is the kind of overlay that can define a profitable day at the windows.

show1Nasty HabitML 5/1

Nasty Habit sits at 76.03 — third in the field — with a 25% career win rate and Peter Miller sending it out with Hector Isaac Berrios up. At 5/1, this is a legitimate contender, not a throwaway show option. Miller trains turf sprinters particularly well at Del Mar and this one has the speed figure (56 avg) to factor late.

Race 10

1:49 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a chaotic maiden claiming sprint with fourteen entries, a scratched morning-line favorite, and a massive ratings gap between our top pick and the rest of the field — the chaos plays right into a value-seeker's hands.

win6Remember AprilML 6/1

Remember April stands alone at 82.71 on our model — a full 17 points clear of the next horse — and carries Welfin R. Orantes for trainer Tim Yakteen, who is sharp with maiden claimers. The 6/1 morning line looks like a gift on a horse with this kind of separation from the field, particularly in a race where the top-listed horse (Awesome Olga) shows as scratched in the data. This is our best value play on the card.

place10She's BackML 8/1

She's Back rates second at 65.15 for trainer Jamey R. Thomas with Jeremy Laprida up, going off at 8/1 on the morning line. In a wide-open field where half the entrants are making their debuts or have limited form, a horse who rates this cleanly above the middle tier is a natural place contender worth including in multi-race wagers.

show5Willow in the WindML 8/1

Willow in the Wind rates third at 61.74 with Armando Aguilar aboard for trainer Ruben Gomez, drawing a manageable post and posting a 53 average speed figure. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is solid show value in a race where the top three rated horses are meaningfully separated from the rest of the field — a trifecta box of the top three-rated active runners makes plenty of sense here.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line for Sunday: Sweet Azteca is the horse to beat in the stakes, Bull Shoals headlines the free card on the turf, and there's legitimate value scattered throughout if you know where to look. The conditions are ideal, the racing is sharp, and TrackWiz has the full breakdown ready for you. Free analysis covers Races 1–3 — subscribers unlock everything else. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

← All Del Mar picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 10 races free