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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — September 5, 2026

September 5, 202610 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Colonial Downs — partly cloudy skies, 84 degrees, and a 10-race card that leans heavily on the turf. If you love grass racing, today is your day. The majority of this card is run over the Colonial turf course, which means pace scenarios and ground-saving trips are going to matter just as much as raw numbers.

We've got a nice mix of conditions across the card — maiden races to kick things off, a pair of Handicap spots anchoring the back end, and some Claiming and Allowance action in between. The card builds nicely from the openers into what should be a sharp finish with Gramp's Legacy drawing plenty of attention in Race 9.

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Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf goes to the gate with first-time starters and lightly raced runners all carrying zero career wins — but our ratings show a clear tier separation at the top.

win2Cool Hard BreezeML 3/2

Cool Hard Breeze draws the morning-line favoritism at 3/2 for good reason — a TrackWiz rating of 87.52 towers over this field and marks her as the class of the race. Under Jorge Ruiz, she gets a competent pilot who should have no trouble keeping tabs on the pace over 1 1/16 miles on the Colonial turf. In a field where every horse is still searching for that first career win, having the highest rating by a significant margin is exactly the edge you want backing a favorite. She's our top selection and the logical key in all horizontal wagers.

place10Blue IceML 6/1

Blue Ice (No. 10) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 76.86 and an average speed figure of 55 — a tick above most of this field — making Samuel Marin's mount a legitimate threat for a piece at 6/1. The morning-line price suggests the public isn't fully sold, which is fine; in a maiden claimer this green, place money on a horse with this kind of rating edge is solid value.

show5Yeah GloML 4/1

Yeah Glo (No. 5) sits right on Blue Ice's heels with a 76.27 rating and represents the Karen Dennehy barn, which also saddles Jubaleve in this race — a trainer who clearly likes this spot. At 4/1 on the morning line, she offers a reasonable price for show-ticket inclusion, and Luis Fuenmayor is a capable hand to keep her in a good spot early in a turf route.

Race 2

5:06 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Graham Motion's likely-debutante Panama Canal enters as the odds-on choice in this maiden special weight mile on the turf, but a small cluster of horses rated in the 53-61 range could keep things honest if the favorite gets into trouble.

win5Panama CanalML EVN

Panama Canal (No. 5) carries a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the top mark in the field — and the morning line opens at even money, a clear signal that connections and the book both expect this horse to be tough to beat. Trainer H. Graham Motion has a well-deserved reputation for having turf maidens ready to fire first time out, and Jorge Ruiz gets the call in the irons. With an average speed of 53 matching the field norm, the edge here is clearly in the rating, and at a mile on Colonial's grass, Motion horses typically show up ready.

place3LouvarML 8/1

Louvar (No. 3) is our place pick and the most intriguing alternative in the field — a TrackWiz rating of 61.44 and the field's top average speed figure of 56 is a combination worth respecting. Jareth Loveberry rides, and trainer Barry Foley's horse has the raw foot to press or stalk whatever pace develops. At 8/1, there's real place value here if Panama Canal gets into any kind of trouble.

show4Kimmy Got GlassesML 5/2

Kimmy Got Glasses (No. 4) rounds out our exotics with a 56.68 rating and a morning line of 5/2 — making her the second choice on the board. Trainer James L. Lawrence II puts Jose E. Vargas up, and while the rating doesn't put her at Panama Canal's level, she's clearly seen as a legitimate threat by oddsmakers. She's a sensible show anchor for tri tickets in what could be a two-horse race at the top.

Race 3

5:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

The dirt maiden special weight at a mile features a handful of first-out unknowns mixed with runners showing some prior work, with Indigo Mo posting a rating that stands well clear of the competition.

win8Indigo MoML 7/2

Indigo Mo (No. 8) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and opens at a fair 7/2 on the morning line, representing solid value given the gap between her number and the rest of the field. Samuel Marin takes the mount for trainer Michael B. Campbell, and with an average speed of 53 already established, she's not a complete unknown. In a maiden special weight on dirt that includes multiple horses with no speed figure on record, having a baseline of performance to point to is a significant advantage.

place3Imperial CharterML 4/1

Imperial Charter (No. 3) is our place pick at 4/1 and checks in with the second-highest rating among horses with established speed figures — a 55.00 TrackWiz score with an average speed of 54. Mychel J. Sanchez rides for Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon, and at 4/1, there's legitimate place value on a horse who clearly has credentials in this wide-open field.

show7MolitorML 9/2

Molitor (No. 7) opens at 9/2 with a rating of 54.17 and gets Jevian Toledo, one of the more reliable riders on the Colonial circuit, for trainer Michael Stidham. The lack of an average speed figure on record means there's some uncertainty baked in, but Stidham is a sharp conditioner and the morning-line price suggests confidence from the connections — worth including in show and exotic plays.

The first three races are on the house today. In Race 1, Cool Hard Breeze (morning line 3/2) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.52 in a Maiden Claiming mile-and-a-sixteenth on turf — a distance that should set up well for a come-from-behind type if the pace heats up early. Race 2 is the one to circle: Panama Canal opened at even money and carries our highest rating of the free trio at a clean 90.00, which tells you our model sees a meaningful edge even at a short price. Don't fade even-money horses when the data is this clean.

Race 3 shifts to the dirt for a Maiden Special Weight mile, and Indigo Mo (7/2 ML, 86.35 rating) gives us a nice value angle to close the free portion of the card. The surface switch from the turf-heavy surrounding races could work in our favor here — horses that genuinely prefer the dirt often stand out when the rest of the card is pulling attention toward the grass.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:08 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint on the dirt that looks competitive on paper but has a clear top-rated standout, with a couple of value horses lurking beneath the favorite at prices worth exploring.

win2MilitiaML 3/1

Militia (No. 2) is our top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the best in the field — and she's put together a career win rate of 27%, which is genuinely strong for the allowance ranks. Steve Klesaris saddles her with Jorge Ruiz in the irons, and at 3/1 on the morning line, she's priced right as a confident top pick. An average speed figure of 55 puts her right in the mix for a 6-furlong dirt sprint, and that combination of high rating and proven win rate makes her our best bet in Race 4.

place5Gin's Beach RoadML 7/2

Gin's Beach Road (No. 5) comes in with a 78.17 rating and draws Mark E. Casse — a trainer who consistently ships horses ready to compete. Sonny Leon rides, and while a 9% career win rate sounds modest, the TrackWiz number says she belongs in this spot at 7/2. She's the right profile for a place ticket: capable enough to be there at the end without necessarily overpowering the field.

show4Yellow FeathersML 10/1

Yellow Feathers (No. 4) is a legit value play in the exotics at 10/1 morning line. A 76.88 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 28% — the second-highest in the field among experienced runners — tells a story the morning line isn't fully accounting for. The Scott Spieth/Aldana Spieth trainer-jockey combination is a family stable that tends to know when their horse is right. She's a show ticket worth buying and a live longshot for the exacta underneath.

Race 5

6:37 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This claiming sprint on the Colonial turf at 5½ furlongs sets up as a pace-heavy contest with several speed-oriented profiles, but our ratings point to a clear top selection with a solid supporting cast.

win2Jungle GlowML 7/2

Jungle Glow (No. 2) leads all horses with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — tied for the highest mark we've seen in any turf sprint today — and backs it up with a 20% career win rate and an average speed figure of 57, which is among the best in this field. Martin Chuan gets the mount for trainer Kevin J. Joy, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's value here for a horse rated this highly. In a claiming turf sprint where raw speed matters, Jungle Glow's numbers check every box.

place7Noah ChanceML 5/1

Noah Chance (No. 7) offers a compelling secondary profile — a 76.63 TrackWiz rating, a career win rate of 24%, and an average speed figure of 58 that actually leads the field. Xavier Perez rides for John J. Robb, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this is a horse who could absolutely win and is certainly worth keying in place. The speed figure alone suggests he has the raw foot to compete deep into this sprint.

show10Paynted WarriorML 5/2

Paynted Warrior (No. 10) fills out the exotics with a 61.65 rating, the field's top average speed of 57, and a strong 28% career win rate — statistics that justify a morning-line position of just 5/2. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the ride for Jose Antonio Vargas, and while our ratings rank her third, a horse this proven at winning who's opened near the top of the board is a safe show anchor and a solid tri inclusion.

Race 6

7:06 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The starter allowance on the turf at 5½ furlongs features a tight battle at the top between two horses with nearly identical ratings, making this a rare race where the value play might be beating the favorite, not siding with it.

win3Matthew's TicketML 9/2

Matthew's Ticket (No. 3) is our top pick here with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 and an average speed figure of 57 that ties the field's best. Forest Boyce takes the call for Phillip Capuano, and while a 14% career win rate is on the modest side, the raw rating says this horse is capable of a sharp effort today. At 9/2 on the morning line — longer than the 9/5 morning-line favorite — Matthew's Ticket represents genuine value if you believe our numbers.

place4Burning BridgesML 9/5

Burning Bridges (No. 4) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and has a 40% career win rate — the highest in this field by a wide margin — which tells you this horse knows how to finish the job. A TrackWiz rating of 83.75 is nearly a dead heat with our win pick, and Martin Chuan rides for the capable Jamie Ness barn. She's the kind of horse you don't want to leave off any ticket, and place money here at what will likely be a low price is still worth having.

show6Dancing BearML 12/1

Dancing Bear (No. 6) is our value play for the show position at 12/1 morning line, and the 66.61 rating actually puts him comfortably ahead of several horses the book is treating more seriously. Trainer James L. Lawrence II sends Jose E. Vargas out on a horse with an average speed of 57 and an 18% career win rate — nothing flashy, but solid enough for a starter allowance field on the turf. If the top two get tangled up, Dancing Bear is the type who can sneak into the exacta or tri at a big number.

Race 7

7:37 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A large, wide-open claiming turf sprint with 11 runners, but our TrackWiz ratings identify a morning-line favorite who looks like a genuine standout — though the price will be short, so the supporting exotics are where the value hides.

win8Noble JonML 2/1

Noble Jon (No. 8) is the clear top selection — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating leads this field by more than nine points, and a 34% career win rate is among the best marks you'll see in a claiming sprint. Horacio Karamanos gets the mount for Monica McGoey, and the 2/1 morning line accurately reflects how good this horse looks on paper. An average speed of 57 matches the field's best, and for a 5½-furlong turf sprint, that combination of rating and proven winning ability is about as clean a profile as you'll find all day.

place1BouncerML 4/1

Bouncer (No. 1) is our place selection with a 78.88 rating, a 24% career win rate, and an average speed of 56 — a well-rounded profile for the claiming ranks. Jaime Rodriguez rides for trainer Jamie Ness, who keeps horses fit and ready, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Bouncer is a logical place horse who figures to be competitive throughout. He's the right type to use underneath in exactas.

show5Lord AnteML 8/1

Lord Ante (No. 5) opens at 8/1 with a 78.29 TrackWiz rating that's nearly identical to Bouncer's — yet the morning line has him nearly twice as long. Jevian Toledo is a savvy turf rider and takes the mount for trainer Shane Meyers. The 22% career win rate is respectable, and at 8/1, Lord Ante offers genuine show and exotic value that's too good to ignore in a field this large.

Race 8

8:09 PM EDT

Handicap · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The evening's first handicap goes 1 1/16 miles on the turf and features experienced, proven winners — with the top of the ratings sheet tightly bunched and the race shaping up as a test of who handles the distance and pace best.

win1Day to DayML 5/2

Day to Day (No. 1) tops our ratings with an 87.81 TrackWiz score and posts a 20% career win rate in what is clearly a competitive handicap field. Edwin Gonzalez rides for the sharp Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. barn — a trainer who knows how to have turf routers ready for spots like this. An average speed of 54 is consistent with the field, and at 5/2 on the morning line, Day to Day is priced right as a confident top pick over this distance on Colonial's turf course.

place2LendalfootML 5/1

Lendalfoot (No. 2) brings a career win rate of 28% and an 80.76 TrackWiz rating — the second-best number in the field — making her a logical place play at 5/1. Martin Chuan rides for Keri Brion, a trainer who consistently fires with turf horses at this level. She's the kind of consistent, high-performing type who lands in the exacta more often than not.

show8Nick's NotionML 3/1

Nick's Notion (No. 8) rounds out our exotics with a 78.22 rating and a 3/1 morning line that reflects legitimate respect from the book, despite a 16% career win rate. Forest Boyce rides for W. Robert Bailes, and the consistent speed figure of 54 suggests this horse runs his race every time — exactly the profile you want anchoring the show slot in a handicap where pace scenarios can get complicated.

Race 9

8:41 PM EDT

Handicap · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The second handicap of the evening is headlined by a heavy favorite with elite ratings and a remarkable win rate, but the 10-horse field includes enough live alternatives to make the exotics well worth building around.

win6Gramp's LegacyML 8/5

Gramp's Legacy (No. 6) is as close to a standout as you'll find on today's card — a 89.12 TrackWiz rating leads the field by more than 13 points, and a 42% career win rate is simply exceptional at this level. Johan Rosado rides for Jeremiah O'Dwyer, and the 8/5 morning line reflects a horse that connections and the public both believe in strongly. An average speed of 56 combined with those credentials makes him our most confident top selection of the evening.

place9Two's a CrowdML 5/2

Two's a Crowd (No. 9) is our place selection at 5/2 with a 75.81 TrackWiz rating and a 31% career win rate — both marks that would make him a favorite in most races today. Edwin Gonzalez rides for Derek S. Ryan, and while Gramp's Legacy looks tough to beat on top, Two's a Crowd has the numbers to comfortably secure a place finish. He's the right horse to key underneath in exactas.

show8Se Thar BarrML 8/1

Se Thar Barr (No. 8) opens at 8/1 with a 71.65 TrackWiz rating and gets Jorge Ruiz for trainer Susan S. Cooney, who also enters Virginia Fitz in this race — a barn clearly comfortable with this spot. The 9% career win rate is the one soft spot, but the rating and speed figure of 55 say the ability is there; he just hasn't converted as often as the talent suggests. At 8/1, he's a value-priced show ticket and a worthwhile tri inclusion.

Race 10

9:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The nightcap is a sprawling 14-horse claiming turf sprint that looks chaotic on the surface, but our ratings carve out a clear top tier — two horses rated in the low 80s sitting well above an otherwise ordinary field.

win4EsooooML 5/1

Esoooo (No. 4) leads our selection with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 40% career win rate — the kind of number that says this horse doesn't just compete, it closes the deal. Samuel Marin rides for Gerard Ochoa, and an average speed of 57 ties the field's best. At 5/1 on the morning line in a field this large and deep, Esoooo offers genuine win value for a horse with credentials this strong — our top bet of the nightcap.

place6Frye IslandML 4/1

Frye Island (No. 6) is right on Esoooo's heels with an 82.35 TrackWiz rating, a 22% career win rate, and an average speed of 57 that also matches the field's top figure. Jose E. Vargas rides for Anthony Farrior, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is a horse the book respects. In a 14-horse field, having two horses rated this closely at the top makes the exacta box a natural play — Frye Island is absolutely capable of flipping the order.

show2Launch ControlML 7/5

Launch Control (No. 2) is the morning-line favorite at 7/5, which means bettors will pile in — but our 63.23 rating puts him notably below the top two selections. Trainer Keri Brion is sharp and Martin Chuan is capable, but at a price this short in a 14-horse field with live 5/1 and 4/1 alternatives above him in the ratings, Launch Control's best role might be as a show anchor or part of the safety net in your exotics rather than the top of your ticket.

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Bottom line: Colonial Downs is serving up a turf-lover's dream today with 84-degree weather and a card built around grass racing from start to finish. Panama Canal is our top free play, Gramp's Legacy is the marquee win bet of the day, and our premium breakdown ties the full card together with pace projections and exotic strategies. Full analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans and get in on the complete picture before post time.

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