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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — September 4, 2026

September 4, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on September 4, 2026.

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Best bets at Colonial Downs, September 4, 2026

Race 11UnrelentingcourageML 6/112:30 PM EDT

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Results are in — see the official Colonial Downs chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 8)→

Happy Labor Day weekend, Colonial Downs fans. Eight races are on the board this Friday at the New Kent oval, and conditions couldn't be cleaner — clear skies, 91°F, and a turf course that should be running fast and true. That's great news for a card that leans heavily on the grass, with six of eight races contested on the green.

The heat is something to keep in mind, especially for horses shipping in or making quick turnarounds. Horses that can settle early and kick late in this weather tend to hold an edge over those asked to grind on the front end. Keep that pace angle in your back pocket all afternoon.

We've got three free races to kick off the card — a mix of maiden optional claiming, maiden special weight, and maiden claiming action — plus five premium races where the real money is likely to change hands. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden opener on the Colonial turf where our top-rated horse is also a generous price — the morning-line favorite isn't our top pick, creating some real betting intrigue in this short 5-furlong dash.

win1UnrelentingcourageML 6/1

Unrelentingcourage sits atop the TrackWiz ratings with a 69.99 — a full 11 points clear of the next horse — despite being posted at 6/1 on the morning line, which represents excellent potential value. That rating gap is meaningful in a maiden field where separation is hard to come by. Trainer Roland P. Clement III saddles this one with Ubardo Casique in the irons, a workmanlike combination for a quick 5-furlong turf sprint. The numbers say this horse is the class of the field, and we're backing the data.

place6TheoneandonlyljML 2/1

Theoneandonlylj is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and carries a solid 58.33 TrackWiz rating, backed by the Paco Lopez-Michael Trombetta combination — a pairing that knows how to get a maiden turf runner ready. In a 5-furlong sprint, getting a sharp jockey like Lopez in the gate early is a real asset, and this one profiles as a tough out even if our top pick fires.

show4Day MadeML 5/2

Day Made opens at 5/2 with a 57.5 rating and the services of Sonny Leon, who has a knack for getting the most out of horses right out of the gate. With no average speed on file, there's some mystery here, but trainer A. Ferris Allen III has pointed this one to a turf sprint debut and the morning-line respect suggests connections are confident. A solid exotic inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:57 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A competitive MSW turf field where the top of the TrackWiz ratings are tightly bunched and the morning-line favorite holds a modest edge — pace scenario and turf pedigree could decide this one late.

win1TizocML 3/1

Tizoc leads our ratings at 56.67 and draws the rail with Paco Lopez's regular partner of late aboard, giving him a clean look at the pace from post 1 in a 5.5-furlong turf test. Trainer Fausto Gutierrez has been active at Colonial and this horse's rating holds a modest but real edge over the rest of the field. In a maiden special weight where many runners are first-timers without speed figures, any proven fitness edge matters enormously.

place6BombayML 4/1

Bombay is one of the few horses in this field showing an average speed figure — a 56 — which is meaningful when many rivals have zeros on the sheet. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman sends him out with Jareth Loveberry up, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the price is fair. That published speed figure suggests legitimate turf experience and a baseline we can measure against.

show7Strike PointML 4/1

Strike Point ties Bombay on the TrackWiz ratings at 55.0 and also opens at 4/1, making trainer Michael Stidham's runner a viable exacta and trifecta piece. Stidham is a savvy conditioner who consistently delivers ready horses, and having Jevian Toledo — one of the sharper turf pilots in this region — in the saddle is a genuine plus. If the pace scenario sets up for a closer, this one could be picking up late.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our three free races open the card and offer a solid warm-up for the afternoon. On the turf, Unrelentingcourage draws our eye in Race 1 at a juicy 6/1 morning line — that's the kind of price that gets our attention when the TrackWiz rating backs it up. In Race 2, Tizoc is the 3/1 morning-line choice in a maiden special weight sprint on the grass, a spot where class and pedigree often separate contenders from pretenders. Shifting to the dirt in Race 3, X G Man posts the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 78.76 and comes in at a workable 7/2 — the kind of value that makes a maiden claiming sprint genuinely worth playing.

One thread connecting these early races: with the turf playing fast under bright sun and firm footing expected, pace-pressing types may have a slight edge in the sprint distances. Watch how the early fractions develop in Race 1 — it'll tell you a lot about how the turf is riding all day.

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Race 3

1:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming dirt sprint with a massive ratings standout at the top — but the morning-line favorite is NOT our top-rated horse, setting up a genuine upset scenario worth playing.

win4X G ManML 7/2

X G Man owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field by a wide margin — a 78.76 against a morning line of 7/2, which is actually fair value given the separation from the competition. Trainer Mary Lightner sends out X G Man with Jareth Loveberry, one of the most reliable riders in the Colonial circuit, and the horse has an average speed figure of 55 to support the rating. Golden Faith may be the crowd's choice at 3/5, but our numbers say X G Man is the real best bet in this maiden claiming dirt sprint.

place8Go Junior GoML 8/1

Go Junior Go is our place pick at 8/1 morning line — a genuine longshot price for a horse carrying a 61.36 rating, second-best in the field behind our top pick. Trainer Carlos Munoz saddles this one with Ubardo Casique, and the 54 average speed figure is respectable for this level. At 8/1, if X G Man fires on top, Go Junior Go could be the value underneath in the exotics.

show7Golden FaithML 3/5

Golden Faith opens as the heavy 3/5 favorite and holds a 60.0 TrackWiz rating with an average speed figure of 56 — the best in the field on that metric. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman and jockey Jevian Toledo is a sharp pairing, and we won't dismiss this horse entirely. We just think the short price is hard to justify when X G Man's rating is nearly 19 points higher — show coverage here makes sense in case the public is right.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

1:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Two powerhouse TrackWiz ratings at the top of this turf claiming field — Horsing Around and Sin Boldly look poised to dominate, with a wide-open battle for the show spot behind them.

win2Horsing AroundML 5/2

Horsing Around tops our ratings at 87.81 and opens at a fair 5/2 morning line in this 5.5-furlong turf claimer. The 20% career win rate is solid for a claiming horse, and the Sheldon Russell-Brittany Russell barn connection is a duo that fires consistently at Colonial — when they saddle a horse with a rating this high, pay attention. The average speed figure of 55 is competitive at this level, and this one looks like the value pick of the two top choices.

place8Sin BoldlyML 3/2

Sin Boldly is installed as the morning-line favorite at 3/2 with an 85.58 rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 — that's a real edge in a sprint. Paco Lopez takes the mount, which is never a negative, and trainer Suzanne Stettinius knows how to sharpen a turf sprinter. We have this one a half-step below Horsing Around in our ratings, but it's a legitimate contender and tough to leave out of the exotics.

show1Precious CatML 8/1

Precious Cat is our show pick at 8/1 — a price that looks generous for a horse carrying a 68.87 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate. Trainer Michael Dini gives the mount to Samuel Marin, and the 55 average speed figure puts this one right in the mix on raw numbers. If the two top choices run each other into the ground, Precious Cat could be sneaking up on the outside for a piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

2:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Yo Adrian draws the morning-line favoritism with strong numerical support, but this 10-horse turf claiming field has multiple live threats — Storm West and Fahnee both carry solid ratings and could make this a real battle.

win4Yo AdrianML 3/2

Yo Adrian sits at the top of the TrackWiz ratings at 89.27 and opens at 3/2 — the favorite here is actually justified by the numbers, not just reputation. The 57 average speed figure is the best in the field, and a 16% career win rate is respectable in claiming company. Sheldon Russell takes the call for trainer Brittany Russell, keeping this one in-house with a rider who knows the horse and the Colonial turf rail intimately.

place1Storm WestML 9/2

Storm West is our value play in the place position — a 73.16 rating at 9/2 with the best career win percentage in the field at 28%. Trainer Joseph Orseno is a sharp conditioner and Samuel Marin gives this one a live chance from the rail. The 55 average speed figure is workmanlike, and if Yo Adrian is the class of the field, Storm West profiles as the next best thing to cross the wire.

show2FahneeML 7/2

Fahnee checks in at 72.84 on our ratings — virtually identical to Storm West — and opens at 7/2 with Paco Lopez aboard for trainer Suzanne Stettinius. That trainer-jockey combination won with Sin Boldly in Race 4 analysis, and Stettinius has a turf sprinter type profile that fits this distance perfectly. At 7/2, this is a fair price to use in trifectas underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

2:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Bruno walks into this allowance dirt sprint as a dominant favorite on the morning line and our ratings agree — but J C's Boys at 8/1 is the most interesting secondary play on the card.

win10BrunoML EVN

Bruno carries a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse we've rated today — and opens at even money on the morning line, which is justified. The 20% career win rate in allowance company is solid, and Jevian Toledo is one of the most reliable pilots in this circuit for a dirt sprint. Trainer Daniel G. Eubanks sends out a horse who looks like the clear class standout here, and in a 6-furlong dirt race, that matters.

place9J C's BoysML 8/1

J C's Boys is our place pick at 8/1 — a genuine price for a horse carrying a 69.52 rating, which is second-best in this field. Trainer W. Robert Bailes gives the mount to Jorge Ruiz, and the 56 average speed figure is right there with the top horses. A 20% career win rate at the allowance level gives this one legitimate credentials, and the 8/1 morning line is a gift if Bruno draws all the money.

show1State ConcealML 6/1

State Conceal opens at 6/1 with a 62.16 rating and a 56 average speed figure that matches the field's upper tier. Paco Lopez takes the call for trainer Carlos Munoz — a strong local combination — and at 6/1, there's real show value here if the top two hold sway. A 10% career win rate isn't flashy, but this one has the raw numbers to be involved in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

3:21 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A deep 11-horse turf allowance where the top three TrackWiz ratings are separated by fewer than 8 points — this one could come down to pace scenario and post position advantage as much as raw ability.

win10DaenerysML 9/2

Daenerys tops our ratings at 84.9 and opens at 9/2 — a price that represents solid value given the class of this runner. A 25% career win rate in allowance company is strong, and Sheldon Russell reunites with the Brittany Russell barn for this one, the same combination we're backing in Race 5. The 56 average speed figure is competitive, and from post 10, this closer type could find clean running in the upper stretch.

place2Clearly SophiaML 5/2

Clearly Sophia is right on Daenerys' heels at 83.31 on our ratings and is actually the morning-line favorite at 5/2. Paco Lopez takes the mount for Karen Dennehy, and the 58 average speed figure — highest in this field — is a real differentiator in a turf sprint. If pace sets up for a presser or mid-pack runner, this one could catch Daenerys at the wire, making her a strong exacta key.

show1FinchML 7/2

Finch rounds out our top three at 77.52 and opens at a fair 7/2 morning line with Jorge Ruiz in the saddle for Sarah Nagle. The 57 average speed figure matches stablemate Byway at the top of the field, and a 25% career win rate at the allowance level shows this one can compete. At 7/2, the price may be a touch short for a show play alone, but Finch makes excellent sense in trifectas underneath Daenerys and Clearly Sophia.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 8

3:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The nightcap is a massive 14-horse maiden claiming turf field — wide open on paper, but Danner's rating creates real separation at the top, and a pair of value plays lurk behind.

win5DannerML 2/1

Danner is our top pick here with a commanding 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 2/1 morning line that actually represents fair value in this crowded field. Trainer W. Robert Bailes sends this one out with Jevian Toledo — Toledo has been one of the sharpest turf riders at Colonial all meet. The 56 average speed figure is solid, and with nearly 15 points separating Danner from the next-best rated horse, this one looks like the class of a wide-open maiden claimer.

place1MykonosML 6/1

Mykonos is our place pick at 6/1 — a price we like for a horse carrying a 76.57 rating, second-best in the field. The 57 average speed figure is tied for the highest in the race, and trainer Keri Brion has a strong reputation for getting turf runners fit and ready. Martin Chuan takes the call from post 1, which gives this one an ideal stalking spot in a 5.5-furlong sprint on the Colonial turf.

show10Thunder ZeusML 9/2

Thunder Zeus rounds out our top three at 73.44 with a 56 average speed figure and opens at 9/2 — a fair price for a horse in a large field. Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo gives the mount to Samuel Marin, and in a 14-horse field, having a horse with legitimate numbers in double digits isn't uncommon. Use Thunder Zeus underneath Danner and Mykonos in your trifecta tickets for solid coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

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Eight races, a firm turf course, and 91-degree heat — Colonial Downs has all the ingredients for an engaging afternoon. Unrelentingcourage, Tizoc, and X G Man headline the free plays, while Bruno, Yo Adrian, and Danner are among the premium headliners worth your attention. As always, manage your bankroll, shop for the best prices, and good luck out there — the full card breakdown is waiting for subscribers.

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