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Free Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — September 4, 2026
Happy Labor Day weekend, Colonial Downs fans. Eight races are on the board this Friday at the New Kent oval, and conditions couldn't be cleaner — clear skies, 91°F, and a turf course that should be running fast and true. That's great news for a card that leans heavily on the grass, with six of eight races contested on the green.
The heat is something to keep in mind, especially for horses shipping in or making quick turnarounds. Horses that can settle early and kick late in this weather tend to hold an edge over those asked to grind on the front end. Keep that pace angle in your back pocket all afternoon.
We've got three free races to kick off the card — a mix of maiden optional claiming, maiden special weight, and maiden claiming action — plus five premium races where the real money is likely to change hands. Let's break it down.
3 Free Races at Colonial Downs
Race 1
Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
A wide-open maiden opener on the Colonial turf where our top-rated horse is also a generous price — the morning-line favorite isn't our top pick, creating some real betting intrigue in this short 5-furlong dash.
Unrelentingcourage sits atop the TrackWiz ratings with a 69.99 — a full 11 points clear of the next horse — despite being posted at 6/1 on the morning line, which represents excellent potential value. That rating gap is meaningful in a maiden field where separation is hard to come by. Trainer Roland P. Clement III saddles this one with Ubardo Casique in the irons, a workmanlike combination for a quick 5-furlong turf sprint. The numbers say this horse is the class of the field, and we're backing the data.
Theoneandonlylj is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and carries a solid 58.33 TrackWiz rating, backed by the Paco Lopez-Michael Trombetta combination — a pairing that knows how to get a maiden turf runner ready. In a 5-furlong sprint, getting a sharp jockey like Lopez in the gate early is a real asset, and this one profiles as a tough out even if our top pick fires.
Day Made opens at 5/2 with a 57.5 rating and the services of Sonny Leon, who has a knack for getting the most out of horses right out of the gate. With no average speed on file, there's some mystery here, but trainer A. Ferris Allen III has pointed this one to a turf sprint debut and the morning-line respect suggests connections are confident. A solid exotic inclusion.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
A competitive MSW turf field where the top of the TrackWiz ratings are tightly bunched and the morning-line favorite holds a modest edge — pace scenario and turf pedigree could decide this one late.
Tizoc leads our ratings at 56.67 and draws the rail with Paco Lopez's regular partner of late aboard, giving him a clean look at the pace from post 1 in a 5.5-furlong turf test. Trainer Fausto Gutierrez has been active at Colonial and this horse's rating holds a modest but real edge over the rest of the field. In a maiden special weight where many runners are first-timers without speed figures, any proven fitness edge matters enormously.
Bombay is one of the few horses in this field showing an average speed figure — a 56 — which is meaningful when many rivals have zeros on the sheet. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman sends him out with Jareth Loveberry up, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the price is fair. That published speed figure suggests legitimate turf experience and a baseline we can measure against.
Strike Point ties Bombay on the TrackWiz ratings at 55.0 and also opens at 4/1, making trainer Michael Stidham's runner a viable exacta and trifecta piece. Stidham is a savvy conditioner who consistently delivers ready horses, and having Jevian Toledo — one of the sharper turf pilots in this region — in the saddle is a genuine plus. If the pace scenario sets up for a closer, this one could be picking up late.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A maiden claiming dirt sprint with a massive ratings standout at the top — but the morning-line favorite is NOT our top-rated horse, setting up a genuine upset scenario worth playing.
X G Man owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field by a wide margin — a 78.76 against a morning line of 7/2, which is actually fair value given the separation from the competition. Trainer Mary Lightner sends out X G Man with Jareth Loveberry, one of the most reliable riders in the Colonial circuit, and the horse has an average speed figure of 55 to support the rating. Golden Faith may be the crowd's choice at 3/5, but our numbers say X G Man is the real best bet in this maiden claiming dirt sprint.
Go Junior Go is our place pick at 8/1 morning line — a genuine longshot price for a horse carrying a 61.36 rating, second-best in the field behind our top pick. Trainer Carlos Munoz saddles this one with Ubardo Casique, and the 54 average speed figure is respectable for this level. At 8/1, if X G Man fires on top, Go Junior Go could be the value underneath in the exotics.
Golden Faith opens as the heavy 3/5 favorite and holds a 60.0 TrackWiz rating with an average speed figure of 56 — the best in the field on that metric. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman and jockey Jevian Toledo is a sharp pairing, and we won't dismiss this horse entirely. We just think the short price is hard to justify when X G Man's rating is nearly 19 points higher — show coverage here makes sense in case the public is right.
Our three free races open the card and offer a solid warm-up for the afternoon. On the turf, Unrelentingcourage draws our eye in Race 1 at a juicy 6/1 morning line — that's the kind of price that gets our attention when the TrackWiz rating backs it up. In Race 2, Tizoc is the 3/1 morning-line choice in a maiden special weight sprint on the grass, a spot where class and pedigree often separate contenders from pretenders. Shifting to the dirt in Race 3, X G Man posts the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 78.76 and comes in at a workable 7/2 — the kind of value that makes a maiden claiming sprint genuinely worth playing.
One thread connecting these early races: with the turf playing fast under bright sun and firm footing expected, pace-pressing types may have a slight edge in the sprint distances. Watch how the early fractions develop in Race 1 — it'll tell you a lot about how the turf is riding all day.
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Eight races, a firm turf course, and 91-degree heat — Colonial Downs has all the ingredients for an engaging afternoon. Unrelentingcourage, Tizoc, and X G Man headline the free plays, while Bruno, Yo Adrian, and Danner are among the premium headliners worth your attention. As always, manage your bankroll, shop for the best prices, and good luck out there — the full card breakdown is waiting for subscribers.