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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — June 29, 2026

Monday, June 29, 20269 racesColonial Downs

Colonial Downs serves up a full 9-race turf card on Monday, June 29, and the conditions are about as inviting as it gets for grass racing in Virginia. Overcast skies and a comfortable 79°F mean no heat stress for the horses and a turf course that should play fair from rail to five-wide.

The entire card goes long — eight of nine races are carded at 2¼ miles, with Race 9 coming in at an even 2 miles. That kind of distance puts a premium on stamina, tactical pace, and jockeys who know when to make their move. Don't expect a lot of wire-to-wire sprinting here; Colonial's grass game rewards finishers.

The marquee spot is Race 8, a Stakes event where Timetoshine draws our attention despite a morning line of 7/2 — there's a value conversation to be had there. But there's plenty to dig into across the full card, including a loaded bottom half that's exclusively available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

Two horses sit well clear of the field on TrackWiz ratings in this opening turf maiden, setting up a potential match race between Fulmineo and Steadfast Resolve — with the rest scrambling for the exotics.

win6FulmineoML 9/2

Fulmineo tops our ratings at 83.36 and draws the 6 post aboard Freddie Procter at a very workable 9/2 morning line. The 15% career win rate is respectable for a horse that figures to improve on turf at this marathon 2 1/4-mile trip, and that rating edge over the field is significant. Trainer Julie Gomena has this one pointed right, and the odds represent fair value for the top-rated horse in the field.

place3Steadfast ResolveML 6/1

Steadfast Resolve is virtually deadlocked with our win pick on ratings (82.71) and comes in with a solid 20% career win rate — the best among the main contenders. Trainer Neil R. Morris sends Graham Watters up at 6/1, which looks a touch generous given how close this horse is to Fulmineo on our numbers. A strong place candidate and a key part of any exacta construction.

show4Time SongML 7/2

Time Song is the morning line favorite's neighbor at 7/2 and posts a 65.98 rating — a clear step below the top two but well ahead of the rest of the field. The 5% career win rate is modest, but Jack Fisher is a capable conditioner and Jamie Bargary gives this one a chance to at least secure a piece. Worth including in trifectas as a closer who could benefit from any pace battle up front.

Race 2

3:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

Camanoe leads on TrackWiz ratings but faces a deep, competitive MSW field where four horses crack the 70-rating threshold — making this race trickier to box up than the morning line suggests.

win1CamanoeML 4/1

Camanoe comes in as our top-rated runner at 85.62 and owns a 16% career win rate, which is a reasonable foundation of consistency. Trainer Jack Fisher teams up with Jamie Bargary, a combination worth tracking at Colonial, and the 4/1 morning line offers genuine value for the field's highest-rated horse. At 2 1/4 miles on turf, a horse with a firm ratings edge can grind rivals down late.

place7Belle WishML 7/2

Belle Wish is intriguing — an 81.27 rating from trainer Leslie F. Young with no career win percentage on record and no published speed figures, which usually points to a lightly raced or first-out type. Graham Watters picks up the mount at 7/2, and when a trainer of Young's experience sends a horse out at that price without a win on the board, there's often quiet confidence in the barn. Best used underneath in the exacta.

show3LorraineML 3/1

Lorraine checks in at 79.44 on our ratings and goes postward at 3/1 for trainer Danielle Hodsdon with Freddie Procter up — a sharp jockey who consistently fires in competitive turf events. She's winless on her card but the rating says she's knocking on the door, and a show position at even-money-adjacent odds still has some merit in a full field like this.

Race 3

3:55 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

Renfro's Reception owns a commanding ratings advantage in this Maiden Optional Claiming route, but Regal Kingdom and Boffo Kid make this more than a one-horse show — and the optional claiming tag means connections are weighing their options carefully.

win1Renfro's ReceptionML 7/2

Renfro's Reception tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.67 and brings a career win rate of 25% — best in the field — to the starting gate. Trainer Jack Fisher and jockey Jamie Bargary connect again here, the same combo we're following closely on the card today. At 7/2, the price is fair for a horse that leads on both raw rating and proven winning ability, and the 2 1/4-mile turf trip suits a pace-relaxed type that can finish.

place3Boffo KidML 10/1

Boffo Kid is the value angle here at 10/1 on the morning line, posting a 76.88 rating that slots in solidly behind our top pick. Trainer Danielle Hodsdon sends Freddie Procter out with a 10% career win rate as a foundation — nothing flashy, but enough to suggest this horse is capable of hitting the board. If the pace gets honest early, Boffo Kid could be picking up pieces late at a price worth playing in the exotics.

show6Regal KingdomML 5/2

Regal Kingdom draws in at 5/2 with a 74.13 rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 55 — that combination of class and raw pace numbers is hard to ignore. Harrison Beswick rides for the always-active Keri Brion barn, which keeps runners sharp and ready. The 17% career win rate adds credibility, and with that speed figure edge, Regal Kingdom should at minimum be in the mix at the top of the stretch.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — are all Maiden events at 2¼ miles on the turf, which creates a nice analytical thread. Maiden runners going long on grass tend to reward horses with a natural staying pedigree and clean early positioning. In Race 1, Fulmineo (9/2 morning line, TrackWiz rating 83.36) is the play with enough rating cushion over the field to warrant confidence. Race 2 brings Camanoe at 4/1 with an 85.62 rating — that's a meaningful step up in projected quality, and the morning line suggests the market is already leaning that way.

Race 3 shifts to Maiden Optional Claiming company, which often attracts horses that connections are willing to expose at a price — a class angle worth noting. Renfro's Reception (7/2, 85.67) edges out Camanoe by a hair in raw rating and looks well-suited to the distance. If the turf course is playing to its typical Colonial profile — favoring closers who can sustain a run in the final half-mile — all three of our free picks fit the mold.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

4:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

This MSW turf route is Cameo Performance's race to lose — a dominant rating and even-money morning line signals serious barn confidence, but Onrush and Crystal Hill could make things interesting for exacta players.

win5Cameo PerformanceML EVN

Cameo Performance is the standout in this field with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark we see across the entire card today — and goes off at even money for trainer Keri Brion and jockey Stephen Mulqueen. Brion is one of the more reliable connections in the Colonial barn area, and a 14% career win rate on a horse priced this short suggests the barn sees a horse that's been pointing for this moment. The average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the field, but the overall rating gap here is substantial.

place8OnrushML 6/1

Onrush checks in at 71.25 on our ratings — second-best in this race — and goes postward at 6/1 for trainer Jack Fisher with Freddie Procter aboard. A winless career record isn't alarming in a maiden field, and that rating suggests the pieces are there for a breakout performance. The place price at 6/1 could have some real overlay value if the favorite does what she's supposed to do.

show7Crystal HillML 8/1

Crystal Hill sits at 65.73 on TrackWiz ratings and draws post 7 with Jamie Bargary for trainer Jack Fisher — the same barn that also runs Onrush in this spot, which tells you Fisher is confident in his chances at the top of the board. Crystal Hill is another winless maiden, but the 8/1 morning line represents a decent price on a horse that clocks in third on our ratings. Worth threading into trifecta wheels.

Race 5

5:05 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

Doctor Davis enters this Maiden Optional Claiming route as a clear class and ratings standout, but Roundtop and Coaches Meeting give this race enough depth to make the exacta an interesting puzzle.

win6Doctor DavisML 2/1

Doctor Davis is the real deal in this field — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating combined with a 33% career win rate and a leading average speed figure of 55 paints the picture of a horse that knows how to win. Trainer Neil R. Morris sends Graham Watters out at just 2/1, and while the short price isn't exciting, the metrics back up the confidence. In a maiden optional claimer at this level, a horse with that combination of winning history and top-end figures is exactly who you want on your ticket.

place9RoundtopML 9/2

Roundtop rates at 79.23 — a comfortable second in this field — and comes in at 9/2 for trainer Keri Brion with Stephen Mulqueen in the irons. A 12% career win rate is modest but present, and Brion's operation regularly places horses well even when they don't win outright. If Doctor Davis handles things up front, Roundtop looks well-positioned to chase down a place spot at an appealing price.

show5Coaches MeetingML 4/1

Coaches Meeting brings a 17% career win rate to the table — second-highest in this field — and a solid 64.92 rating that earns a legit look at 4/1. Trainer Katherine S. Neilson and Jack Power have put together a horse that shows up consistently, and at the 2 1/4-mile turf distance, that kind of seasoned winner can find a way to hang around for a piece. A useful show ticket and a key trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

5:40 PM EDT

Handicap · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

A wide-open handicap with ten runners and no overwhelming favorite — five horses are clustered between a 73 and 79 TrackWiz rating, making this the toughest race on the card to call and a field ripe for exotic upsets.

win3Love ForeverafterML 6/1

Love Foreverafter leads our ratings at 79.07 and brings an impressive 31% career win rate — the highest of any contender in this race — to a tough handicap field. Trainer Neil R. Morris deploys Graham Watters at 6/1, and that career winning percentage tells you this horse has been here before and knows how to close the deal. In a field this bunched on raw ratings, a proven winner with a double-digit edge in career win percentage is who you lean on.

place10Bright Eyed EagleML 8/1

Bright Eyed Eagle is a fascinating angle at 8/1 on the morning line — a 75.63 TrackWiz rating with no published speed figure and an 11% career win rate under trainer Katherine S. Neilson. Jamie Bargary picks up the mount, and when a horse without recent speed figures surfaces in a field at this price, there's often a form cycle that's not fully visible on paper. Worth including in exacta and trifecta plays as a live longer price.

show8Super SnoopML 5/1

Super Snoop posts a 74.65 rating and owns a 23% career win rate — the second-best winning percentage in the field — at 5/1 for trainer Thomas Garner and Evan Dwan. The average speed figure of 51 is the lowest among horses who have one, but the raw winning history says this horse competes. At 5/1 in a wide-open spot, a show play or a place-and-show wheel makes some sense.

Race 7

6:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

Salted Carmel comes in as the ratings leader in this allowance turf route, but Aspenite and a pair of horses with 50% career win rates — however small the sample — add intrigue to what should be a competitive afternoon feature.

win1Salted CarmelML 4/1

Salted Carmel tops the field at 85.62 on TrackWiz ratings and carries an 18% career win rate into the starting gate for trainer Keri Brion and Stephen Mulqueen — a combination that fires regularly at Colonial. The average speed figure of 54 is right at the top of the field, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of horse you can comfortably make your cornerstone bet of the card. Brion doesn't wheel out horses in allowance company without having them ready.

place3AspeniteML 3/1

Aspenite rates at 76.71 — a solid second in this field — and posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 55, which is a real edge over the field in a turf route where pace and stamina matter. Trainer Neil R. Morris and Graham Watters combine at 3/1, and a 13% career win rate gives this horse credible form. If Salted Carmel gets the job done in front, Aspenite looks like the natural horse to chase it home.

show7WhiskeyinthejaroML 8/1

Whiskeyinthejaro is a show value play at 8/1 with a 17% career win rate and a 69.42 TrackWiz rating that puts it solidly in the top half of this field. Trainer Mark Beecher sends Dan Nevin out with a horse that has a published speed figure of 50 — lower than some rivals — but the winning history and the price make this worth threading into trifectas. At 8/1, you're getting compensated for the risk.

Race 8

6:50 PM EDT

Stakes · 2 1/4 mi · Turf

Gold Charm enters as the morning line favorite with a jaw-dropping 54% career win rate, but our ratings tell a different story — Timetoshine, Anoint, and Fiery Dart all rate higher, setting up a genuine upset scenario in this stakes feature.

win1TimetoshineML 7/2

Timetoshine leads TrackWiz ratings at 74.05 in a field where no horse scores particularly high, and the 33% career win rate provides a proven foundation for backing this at 7/2. Trainer Mark Beecher and Dan Nevin get the call, and in stakes company where credentials vary widely, a top-rated horse at a fair price is worth anchoring your ticket to. The morning line underlay relative to Gold Charm's buzz makes this a solid contrarian play.

place7AnointML 8/1

Anoint rates at 70.08 — third in this field — and goes postward at 8/1 for trainer Keri Brion with Stephen Mulqueen up, a combo that consistently delivers at Colonial. The 20% career win rate is solid for stakes company, and at 8/1, the overlay potential is real given how closely bunched the top of this field is on our numbers. An excellent place target and a must-include in any exotic structure.

show4Fiery DartML 15/1

Fiery Dart is the live longshot play of the race at 15/1 on the morning line, posting a 69.58 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate that matches some of the more prominent names in this field. Trainer Keri Brion doubles up here with Harrison Beswick aboard — when a barn throws two runners into a stakes, they usually believe in both. The price on Fiery Dart relative to the rating and win percentage is genuinely attractive for show and trifecta plays.

Race 9

7:25 PM EDT

Allowance · 2 mi · Turf

A massive 13-horse allowance field drops back to 2 miles on turf to close out the card, with Fleetfoot as the clear top pick at 2/1 but two 20/1 shots — The Jackal and Bee Well — lurking as legitimate exotic plays based on our ratings.

win4FleetfootML 2/1

Fleetfoot leads this sprawling field with a 64.15 TrackWiz rating and a very strong 33% career win rate — the best winning percentage among the top-rated horses in this race. Trainer Barry Foley sends Danny Mullins out at 2/1, and while the morning line chalk is never thrilling to back, the combination of top rating and a one-in-three career strike rate in a 13-horse field is hard to argue with. The 2-mile turf trip suits a relaxed closer who can absorb a complicated pace scenario in a full field.

place8The JackalML 20/1

The Jackal is the value gem of this race at 20/1 on the morning line — a 62.29 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate from trainer Jack Fisher with Jamie Bargary up, a sharp combination. The average speed figure of 52 is workable in this field, and the price on a horse that rates this close to the top of the board is a genuine overlay. In a 13-horse field where the pace will be complex, a closer with some pace figure and proven winning form at 20/1 is where you want your exotic money.

show6Bee WellML 20/1

Bee Well rates at 61.3 — just a hair behind The Jackal — and also goes postward at 20/1 for trainer Archibald J. Kingsley Jr. with Freddie Procter in the irons. A 12% career win rate is modest but present, and in a field this deep, show prices on 20/1 shots with legitimate ratings can pay very well. Procter is an active rider on this card and will keep this one competitive throughout — a worthwhile show play and trifecta inclusion to close out the card.

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Colonial Downs is dealing a deep, distance-oriented turf card today, and the cloudy conditions should keep the playing field level from race to race. Fulmineo, Camanoe, and Renfro's Reception are your free best bets to start the day — and Timetoshine in the Race 8 Stakes is the name to watch on the premium side. For pace projections, exotic tickets, and the full 9-race breakdown, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get every angle before the first gate opens.

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