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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

June 28, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on June 28, 2026.

Best bets at Colonial Downs, June 28, 2026

Race 13KrakenML 6/512:30 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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We're at Colonial Downs on a cloudy Sunday, with temperatures sitting around 81°F and eight races on the board. The overcast conditions are a welcome sign for the turf courses — no baking sun means the going should stay consistent throughout the afternoon, which matters when you've got five of today's eight races contested on the grass.

It's a maiden-heavy card, with six of eight races restricted to non-winners, but don't let that fool you into thinking there's nothing to play. Maiden races — especially on Colonial's turf course — can produce some of the sharpest overlays of the meet, particularly when lightly raced horses are cutting back or switching surfaces for the first time. TrackWiz analysis has flagged some genuine angles across the card today.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and the full eight-race breakdown is available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

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Race 1

12:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A short turf sprint for maidens, and the morning line tells the whole story — one horse opened at 6/5 while the rest of the field is priced as if they know something the bettors don't. The real intrigue is whether any of the longer shots can outrun their odds.

win3KrakenML 6/5

Kraken is the overwhelming TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field with an 89.71 rating — a full 25 points clear of the second-best runner — and trainer Joseph F. Orseno sends him out as the 6/5 morning line favorite for good reason. His avg speed figure of 56 tops the field, and on a 5-furlong turf sprint where pace and early position matter, that edge is meaningful. Samuel Marin gets the call, and this looks like a race where connections expect a sharp debut performance.

place4Henry's BuddyML 15/1

Henry's Buddy is a genuine value play at 15/1 on the morning line for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo. His TrackWiz rating of 64.07 is the second-highest in the field, a fact the morning line completely ignores — that disconnect is exactly the kind of overlay we look for in maiden races. Jockey Ismerio Villalobos rides for D'Angelo regularly, and if Kraken draws any kind of trouble, Henry's Buddy is well-positioned to grab a piece.

show1Rare EclipseML 7/2

Rare Eclipse checks in with a 60.64 TrackWiz rating and the services of Daniel Centeno for trainer Keri Brion — a solid combination in a race that lacks depth beyond the top two. Postitioned in the one hole, Centeno can dictate his own pace and avoid traffic trouble, which in a maiden sprint on turf can be the difference between cashing and finishing fourth. At 7/2, there's some genuine value here for exotic players looking to anchor their trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:59 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The public will key on two horses packed tightly in the morning line, but TrackWiz analysis flips the script — the 10/1 shot grades out on top, setting up a potential upset in this mile maiden claimer on the dirt. Pace could be a factor at the longer distance, giving closers a chance to shine late.

win3Regency TaleML 10/1

Regency Tale opens at 10/1 but leads the field with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — that's a significant price discrepancy worth attacking. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III places him at a mile on dirt, a route that suits horses with stamina to burn, and Jorge Ruiz is a capable pilot who can rate a horse and keep him covered early. When our top-rated horse is available at double digits, that's a value signal that's hard to ignore.

place4ChowserML 8/5

Chowser is the 8/5 second choice on the morning line, and the 72.04 rating backs up that public confidence — Paco Lopez is one of the sharpest jockeys in the mid-Atlantic region and he doesn't take throwaway mounts. Trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. saddles him for a one-mile dirt maiden, and while Chowser rates just behind Regency Tale in our model, he's the logical play for bettors who prefer going with the morning line hierarchy.

show5Diamond KnifeML 6/5

Diamond Knife sits at 6/5 on the morning line and carries a 71.71 TrackWiz rating, making this a tight three-horse cluster at the top of the field. The D'Angelo barn has two runners entered (including Diamond Knife), which sometimes signals stable confidence, and Samuel Marin is a solid pilot for a horse trying to break his maiden at a mile. At short odds he's not a value play, but for trifecta construction he rounds out a logical top three.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races give us a solid cross-section of today's themes. Race 1 sends us straight to the turf with Kraken — a morning-line favorite at 6/5 who carries an 89.71 TrackWiz rating, one of the highest marks on the entire card. Short price, but the number backs it up. Race 2 is the real conversation starter: Regency Tale goes postward at 10/1 on the morning line despite owning the top rating in the field at 76.88. That's the definition of a value play, and in a mile maiden claimer on the dirt, double-digit odds on your top-rated horse is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz is built to find.

Race 3 rounds out the free picks with Crawford at 9/5 in a maiden special weight sprint — MSW races carry the most prestige among maiden conditions, and a rating of 88.83 gives Crawford a legitimate edge. The pace scenario in the 6-furlong dirt sprint should set up well for a forward-moving type, and the cloudy, cooler conditions keep the track playing honest. All three of these free races share a common thread: strong TrackWiz ratings with morning lines that haven't fully caught up to the data.

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Race 3

1:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight company on the dirt at six furlongs — this is a classier maiden condition than the prior two races, and Arnaud Delacour saddles two horses in the same field, which always raises eyebrows. One of them grades out significantly ahead of the other, and the pace scenario should be clean enough to let talent sort it out.

win5CrawfordML 9/5

Crawford is the clear standout here with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — nearly 30 points ahead of the next horse — and he opens at 9/5 on the morning line, meaning the market respects him even if it's not fully pricing in his edge. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the mount for trainer Arnaud Delacour, and the Delacour barn running two horses (Crawford and stablemate Life's Dynamic) in the same field suggests they believe in Crawford's ability to handle company. At six furlongs on the dirt, a horse with his rating profile should be on or near the lead from the jump.

place6My Steel MagnoliaML 8/5

My Steel Magnolia opens at 8/5 — essentially co-favored — and her 59.0 rating gives her a credible chance to fill the exacta. Victor R. Carrasco rides for trainer Caio Caramori, and her avg speed of 54 is solid for a MSW field that has some question marks regarding experience. If Crawford hits any traffic issues or doesn't fire cleanly on debut, My Steel Magnolia is right there to capitalize.

show1Life's DynamicML 7/2

Life's Dynamic is the second Delacour trainee in this spot, and while stable connections clearly prefer Crawford based on jockey assignments, don't completely dismiss the stablemate angle — Delacour is too sharp an operator to run a horse without believing it has a realistic chance. Her 55.83 rating makes her third-best in the field, and at 7/2 she represents decent show value for players building trifectas around the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:06 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open Maiden Optional Claiming sprint on the dirt where the morning line favorite owns the top TrackWiz rating but by a surprisingly slim margin — six horses are separated by just about six points, making this a tricky betting race. Post position and a clean break could matter more than usual.

win8Go New York GoML 6/5

Go New York Go breaks from the eight post under Jareth Loveberry for trainer Hugh I. McMahon and leads this field with a 59.67 TrackWiz rating. The morning line has her at 6/5, and while that's a short price in a maiden optional claimer, the lack of available speed figures (avgSpeed field blank) for most rivals makes it difficult to argue against the top-rated horse. McMahon and Loveberry are a familiar combination, and in a race this compressed at the top, simply being the best number in the field is a meaningful edge.

place3Whacky WitchML 9/2

Whacky Witch checks in with a 54.17 rating for trainer Anthony Farrior and Mychel J. Sanchez — the same barn also saddles Ashley H. in this race, but the morning line gives Whacky Witch the edge at 9/2 versus 5/1. Sanchez is a sharp jockey pick in any field, and with the absence of published speed figures for most of this maiden group, the model lean toward Whacky Witch as the most likely exacta partner for Go New York Go.

show1My Lucky WifeML 5/1

My Lucky Wife opens at 5/1 with Horacio Karamanos up for Kenneth G. McPeek — a trainer whose name carries weight even in maiden optional claiming company. The 53.33 rating ties her with Ashley H., but McPeek's operation typically arrives at the track with horses that are ready, even if they don't always announce it on the morning line. At 5/1, there's enough value to include her on the bottom of trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf sprint for maiden claimers, and this one has a clear top two in the model — but the morning line spreads them across very different odds, creating an interesting value dynamic. The Jamie Ness barn saddles two horses and knows exactly which one they're more serious about.

win4Blazing BridgetteML 5/2

Blazing Bridgette is TrackWiz's top pick here at an 85.05 rating, which is substantial separation from all but one rival. Trainer Jamie Ness sends her out at 5/2 on the morning line — notably shorter than stablemate Vorstin at 2/1, which could indicate the public is leaning toward the other Ness runner, creating a slight overlay opportunity. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the leg up, and her avg speed of 54 on turf is respectable for a maiden claimer going 5.5 furlongs.

place9CuddlerML 6/1

Cuddler is a fascinating value horse here — she rates second in the field at 82.71 but opens at 6/1 on the morning line, a significant price for a horse so close to the top in our model. Trainer Karen Dennehy also saddles Toot in the same race, and Sonny Leon's presence in the irons suggests connections favor Cuddler. Her avg speed of 57 is actually the best in this entire field, which adds another layer of appeal at a generous price.

show5Lucky LisML 9/2

Lucky Lis shows a 75.67 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 55 for trainer Jose J. Magana — that's a legitimate number in a maiden claiming turf sprint. Jorge Ruiz handles the riding duties, and at 9/2 on the morning line she sits at a workable price for players looking to spread in the show position. Third-best in the model in a maiden sprint is exactly the profile you want underpinning your exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

This claiming race on the turf has a clear class standout posting the field's best speed figures, but the secondary market is where the real action is — a 12/1 shot grades out second in our model, which is the kind of overlay that can fuel a juicy exacta. Nine runners make for a competitive undercard feature.

win8Enduring GoldML 9/5

Enduring Gold is the most dominant number in this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 57 — three to four ticks faster than virtually every rival. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is a proven commodity at Colonial Downs, and Mychel J. Sanchez takes a live mount at 9/5. His 14% career win rate is solid for a claiming horse, and at six furlongs on the turf, his pace versatility should allow Sanchez to find a comfortable spot while the pace plays out in front of him.

place3Make It QuickML 12/1

Make It Quick is the overlay of the race — a 65.04 TrackWiz rating in a field where the second-highest score (Spamalot at 56.82) is nearly nine points below him, yet he opens at 12/1 on the morning line. Trainer John J. Robb sends him out with Xavier Perez, and his 14% career win rate is respectable. When our model shows this kind of disconnect between rating and price, the place pool becomes especially attractive.

show6SpamalotML 5/2

Spamalot opens at 5/2 with Paco Lopez aboard for trainer Brett A. Brinkman, and the public will likely make him the second choice behind Enduring Gold. His 56.82 rating is third-best in the field, and Lopez is always dangerous on turf, where his patient style pays dividends. At 5/2 there isn't much overlay value, but his presence in the exacta and trifecta is hard to dismiss given the rider quality.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

3:47 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An allowance race on the turf where the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse in our model — that's your first clue there's a value angle here. With ten runners including one numbered in double digits, the field is deep and pace could be a significant factor over the 5.5-furlong turf course.

win7OverspentML 5/1

Overspent leads the TrackWiz model at 84.17 and opens at a generous 5/1 for trainer Mark Shuman with Mychel J. Sanchez taking the mount — that's a top rider on the top-rated horse at a double-digit fair-value price. His 33% career win rate is excellent for an allowance runner, and Sanchez has the tactical flexibility to work from mid-pack if the pace heats up early. The gap between Overspent's rating and the field is significant enough to make him the clear top selection.

place1SuperfractorML 4/1

Superfractor is arguably the most interesting horse in the field — a 66% career win rate is elite at any level, and a 67.12 TrackWiz rating backs it up. Trainer Benjamin W. Perkins Jr. deploys Paco Lopez from the one hole, which sets up a potential stalking trip on the rail. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and while he doesn't match Overspent in our model today, that career win percentage is the kind of data point that commands respect in any allowance field.

show3SkillianML 5/2

Skillian opens at 5/2 as the morning line favorite, which means the public rates him higher than our model does — always a useful tension to acknowledge. His 50% career win rate is impressive and Jevian Toledo is a sharp pilot for trainer Lacey Gaudet. Even if he doesn't win, a horse with that kind of win record in allowance company rarely finishes worse than third, making him a solid show anchor or exacta backup.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

4:17 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse Maiden Special Weight field on the mile turf course, and the morning line favorite carries a 4/5 price but doesn't top our model — that divergence between public and TrackWiz opinion makes this one of the more nuanced races on the card. Big fields on turf routes can get messy, so pace and position will matter.

win7Se Thar BarrML 5/1

Se Thar Barr leads our model at 62.29 and opens at a very fair 5/1 for trainer Susan S. Cooney with Jorge Ruiz in the irons. His avg speed of 55 is one of the better numbers in the field, and Cooney saddles two horses today (Se Thar Barr and Irish Nunsense), with Ruiz taking the better ride — that intrastable jockey assignment is a meaningful signal. At a mile on turf, a horse with strong stamina indicators and a top model score makes a compelling case to beat the heavy favorite.

place3NaabaahiiML 4/5

Naabaahii is the 4/5 morning line favorite for trainer Brittany T. Russell, and Mychel J. Sanchez's presence in the irons explains the short price. Her 60.0 TrackWiz rating is strong in this MSW maiden field, and while our model slots her just behind Se Thar Barr, she's clearly one of the top contenders. Bettors who want to go chalk can certainly back her to win, but at 4/5 the value lies in using her underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show11Bolt Del MareaML 6/1

Bolt Del Marea draws the 11 post for trainer Keri Brion with Samuel Marin — an outside post in an eleven-horse turf route is tricky, but Brion is a quality trainer who doesn't make careless entries. The 51.67 rating is solid for a maiden at this level, and Marin is a capable jockey who can navigate traffic from an outside draw. At 6/1, there's enough value here to justify including him on the bottom of trifectas in what figures to be a spread-out field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Today's best bets start with Kraken in Race 1, Regency Tale as the value play of the day in Race 2, and Crawford to close out the free card in Race 3. The turf conditions look favorable all afternoon, and the rating gaps our analysis uncovered in the premium races make this a card worth playing deep. Subscribers have everything they need — full picks, pace projections, and exotic tickets — waiting in the complete breakdown. Good luck out there.

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