Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — June 25, 2026
We're heading to Colonial Downs on Thursday, June 25 for an eight-race card under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 81°F. Conditions look close to ideal, especially for the turf events — and with four of today's eight races run on the grass, that matters.
The card leans heavily toward maiden and claiming company in the early going before stepping up to allowance optional claiming territory in the middle and late races. There's legitimate talent sprinkled throughout, and with several morning lines that suggest the oddsmakers aren't fully convinced on the favorites, there could be real value hiding in this card.
TrackWiz has full ratings on all eight races. Three races are free for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with the full premium breakdown covering Races 4 through 8 available to subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden special weight on the dirt sprint with no experienced winners in the field — but the morning line tells a clear story, with X G Man installed as the 7/5 chalk against a competitive group that includes two other single-digit prices.
X G Man tops our TrackWiz ratings at 59.33 and is the only horse in the field who brings a published average speed figure of 54, giving him a tangible edge over rivals who are working off zero recorded figures. Trainer Mary Lightner sends him out with Rajiv Maragh in the irons — a polished booking that signals confidence. At 7/5 on the morning line, the market agrees with our read, and with early pace likely unsettled in a field of maidens, a horse showing any prior form should have a significant advantage.
Fission comes in second in our ratings at 57.5 and drew Mychel J. Sanchez for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, a barn that consistently puts runners into the mix on debut. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's a real case he finishes in front of the favorite — he's worth using underneath in exactas if you want to beat the chalk.
The Gabe Digger opens at 3/1, which is fair value for a horse rated 56.67 — the third-best mark in the field. Frankie Pennington gets the call for John T. Kirby, and in a maiden sprint like this where pace can be chaotic, a horse with a solid rating who draws post 1 can save ground and pick off tired rivals late. A logical show anchor in your tickets.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
The morning line favorite and our top-rated horse are two different horses here, creating an interesting overlay situation — Will Believe (3/1) tops the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin over the 6/5 morning line chalk Daenerys.
Will Believe is our top-rated contender with a 66.31 TrackWiz score — more than six points clear of Daenerys and nearly 11 points ahead of the next ranked rival. He's logged an average speed figure of 53 and gets Jareth Loveberry, one of the meet's reliable pilots, for trainer Michael E. Lauer. At 3/1 on the morning line, he looks like the true overlay of this race — the ratings say he should be closer to favoritism, and if he runs his figure, he should be difficult to beat.
Daenerys is the morning line favorite at 6/5 and posts the field's top average speed figure of 54, which is why the market is high on her. Trainer Brittany T. Russell with husband Sheldon Russell in the saddle is a connected barn angle worth noting — when connections are this tight, they tend to have a horse ready. She fits as a strong place contender even if the ratings suggest Will Believe has the edge.
Squirrely rates third in the field at 55.27 and has an average speed figure of 53 to back it up. Paco Lopez is a top-tier jock who knows how to put a horse in position around the Colonial oval, and trainer Jane Cibelli sends her out at a reasonable 5/2 morning line. In a five-horse field, hitting the show spot is far from a lock, but Squirrely's figures say she belongs in the mix for exacta and trifecta coverage.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
This maiden turf route is a genuine puzzle — the morning line favorite (Boundless Skies at 2/1) is not our top pick, and the horse we like best (Margie's Last at 4/1) offers real overlay value in a seven-horse field that lacks a dominant speed presence.
Margie's Last leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 67.97 — a meaningful gap over second-ranked Boundless Skies at 58.33 — and she's shown an average speed figure of 53 to validate the model's confidence. Horacio Karamanos rides for Georgia D. Andreadakis, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is a horse the market is undervaluing relative to our numbers. On a turf route where pace shapes up as relatively honest, a horse with the top rating should be able to settle and produce her best run.
Boundless Skies is the morning line lukewarm favorite at 2/1 and sits second in our ratings at 58.33, with an average speed figure of 53 matching the field's middle tier. Paco Lopez takes the mount for Jorge Duarte, Jr., a Colonial-familiar outfit. She's likely to be heavily bet and will contend, but at short odds she's more useful as a place bet or underneath our top pick in exactas.
No Temperance draws Sonny Leon for Mark E. Casse — and that trainer name stands out in a maiden turf field. Casse is a big-meet conditioner who doesn't travel light; when he ships a first-or-second starter to Colonial, it's worth paying attention. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating slots him third in the field at a workable 4/1 morning line — a solid show play and worth including in trifecta tickets.
The free portion of today's card is all maiden special weight action, and that's where the early intrigue lives. X G Man opens the card as the 7/5 morning line favorite over 5½ furlongs on the dirt — he's the shortest price of the free trio but earned it. Will Believe in Race 2 is the one we're watching closely at 3/1; that morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to what our ratings are showing at 66.31. Then Race 3 shifts to the turf for a route at 1 1/16 miles, where Margie's Last projects as our top pick at 4/1 — a price worth respecting on a grass route where pace scenario and turf form separate fields in a hurry.
The through-line on the free races is straightforward: two dirt sprints followed by a turf route, all maiden company, all at Colonial where pace can be unforgiving early. Watch for horses with clean trips near the lead in the sprints and turf route-bred types with European or grass pedigree in Race 3.
Full Card Analysis
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Today's best bets start with Will Believe and Margie's Last in the free races — both offer morning line value relative to our TrackWiz ratings. In the premium card, Normandy Hero at 5/1 stands out as a potential overlay, and the back-to-back turf mile claimers in Races 4 and 5 set up a multi-race sequence worth building around. Unlock the full card analysis with a TrackWiz subscription — details at /pricing.