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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — June 25, 2026

June 25, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on June 25, 2026.

Best bets at Colonial Downs, June 25, 2026

Race 13X G ManML 7/512:30 PM EDT

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We're heading to Colonial Downs on Thursday, June 25 for an eight-race card under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 81°F. Conditions look close to ideal, especially for the turf events — and with four of today's eight races run on the grass, that matters.

The card leans heavily toward maiden and claiming company in the early going before stepping up to allowance optional claiming territory in the middle and late races. There's legitimate talent sprinkled throughout, and with several morning lines that suggest the oddsmakers aren't fully convinced on the favorites, there could be real value hiding in this card.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all eight races. Three races are free for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with the full premium breakdown covering Races 4 through 8 available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight on the dirt sprint with no experienced winners in the field — but the morning line tells a clear story, with X G Man installed as the 7/5 chalk against a competitive group that includes two other single-digit prices.

win3X G ManML 7/5

X G Man tops our TrackWiz ratings at 59.33 and is the only horse in the field who brings a published average speed figure of 54, giving him a tangible edge over rivals who are working off zero recorded figures. Trainer Mary Lightner sends him out with Rajiv Maragh in the irons — a polished booking that signals confidence. At 7/5 on the morning line, the market agrees with our read, and with early pace likely unsettled in a field of maidens, a horse showing any prior form should have a significant advantage.

place2FissionML 5/2

Fission comes in second in our ratings at 57.5 and drew Mychel J. Sanchez for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, a barn that consistently puts runners into the mix on debut. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's a real case he finishes in front of the favorite — he's worth using underneath in exactas if you want to beat the chalk.

show1The Gabe DiggerML 3/1

The Gabe Digger opens at 3/1, which is fair value for a horse rated 56.67 — the third-best mark in the field. Frankie Pennington gets the call for John T. Kirby, and in a maiden sprint like this where pace can be chaotic, a horse with a solid rating who draws post 1 can save ground and pick off tired rivals late. A logical show anchor in your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:58 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite and our top-rated horse are two different horses here, creating an interesting overlay situation — Will Believe (3/1) tops the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin over the 6/5 morning line chalk Daenerys.

win1Will BelieveML 3/1

Will Believe is our top-rated contender with a 66.31 TrackWiz score — more than six points clear of Daenerys and nearly 11 points ahead of the next ranked rival. He's logged an average speed figure of 53 and gets Jareth Loveberry, one of the meet's reliable pilots, for trainer Michael E. Lauer. At 3/1 on the morning line, he looks like the true overlay of this race — the ratings say he should be closer to favoritism, and if he runs his figure, he should be difficult to beat.

place3DaenerysML 6/5

Daenerys is the morning line favorite at 6/5 and posts the field's top average speed figure of 54, which is why the market is high on her. Trainer Brittany T. Russell with husband Sheldon Russell in the saddle is a connected barn angle worth noting — when connections are this tight, they tend to have a horse ready. She fits as a strong place contender even if the ratings suggest Will Believe has the edge.

show5SquirrelyML 5/2

Squirrely rates third in the field at 55.27 and has an average speed figure of 53 to back it up. Paco Lopez is a top-tier jock who knows how to put a horse in position around the Colonial oval, and trainer Jane Cibelli sends her out at a reasonable 5/2 morning line. In a five-horse field, hitting the show spot is far from a lock, but Squirrely's figures say she belongs in the mix for exacta and trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The free portion of today's card is all maiden special weight action, and that's where the early intrigue lives. X G Man opens the card as the 7/5 morning line favorite over 5½ furlongs on the dirt — he's the shortest price of the free trio but earned it. Will Believe in Race 2 is the one we're watching closely at 3/1; that morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to what our ratings are showing at 66.31. Then Race 3 shifts to the turf for a route at 1 1/16 miles, where Margie's Last projects as our top pick at 4/1 — a price worth respecting on a grass route where pace scenario and turf form separate fields in a hurry.

The through-line on the free races is straightforward: two dirt sprints followed by a turf route, all maiden company, all at Colonial where pace can be unforgiving early. Watch for horses with clean trips near the lead in the sprints and turf route-bred types with European or grass pedigree in Race 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:26 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

This maiden turf route is a genuine puzzle — the morning line favorite (Boundless Skies at 2/1) is not our top pick, and the horse we like best (Margie's Last at 4/1) offers real overlay value in a seven-horse field that lacks a dominant speed presence.

win5Margie's LastML 4/1

Margie's Last leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 67.97 — a meaningful gap over second-ranked Boundless Skies at 58.33 — and she's shown an average speed figure of 53 to validate the model's confidence. Horacio Karamanos rides for Georgia D. Andreadakis, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is a horse the market is undervaluing relative to our numbers. On a turf route where pace shapes up as relatively honest, a horse with the top rating should be able to settle and produce her best run.

place2Boundless SkiesML 2/1

Boundless Skies is the morning line lukewarm favorite at 2/1 and sits second in our ratings at 58.33, with an average speed figure of 53 matching the field's middle tier. Paco Lopez takes the mount for Jorge Duarte, Jr., a Colonial-familiar outfit. She's likely to be heavily bet and will contend, but at short odds she's more useful as a place bet or underneath our top pick in exactas.

show3No TemperanceML 4/1

No Temperance draws Sonny Leon for Mark E. Casse — and that trainer name stands out in a maiden turf field. Casse is a big-meet conditioner who doesn't travel light; when he ships a first-or-second starter to Colonial, it's worth paying attention. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating slots him third in the field at a workable 4/1 morning line — a solid show play and worth including in trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

1:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Three horses in this turf claiming mile are bunched within five points of each other at the top of our ratings, setting up a tight three-way battle — but the morning line favorite and our top-rated horse are the same runner, which doesn't happen every day.

win8Ski BumML EVN

Ski Bum leads all comers with an 88.25 TrackWiz rating and goes postward as the even-money morning line choice, so the market and our model are aligned here. Samuel Marin rides for Jose A. Gallegos, and while a 7% career win rate is modest, the raw ratings score is the highest in the race by nearly four points. On a turf mile at Colonial where pace can be honest, a horse with top-level figures who is also the crowd's pick deserves to be your anchor.

place1No MerlotML 5/1

No Merlot is no slouch — an 84.17 TrackWiz score and a career win rate of 7% back a horse that Sonny Leon has been booked to ride for Michelle Hemingway. He's shown an average speed figure of 53 on turf and opens at 5/1, which represents real value for a horse rated second-best. If the favorite gets into trouble or is forced wide, No Merlot has the figures to capitalize.

show7PolvellanML 4/1

Polvellan brings the most eye-catching career win percentage in the field at 25% — a number that says this horse knows how to win races. Joseph Rocco, Jr. gets the mount for Lynn A. Ashby, and the 83.3 TrackWiz rating sits just a tick below No Merlot. The top three in our ratings are closely grouped, making Polvellan a must-include in any trifecta you're constructing around this race.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse turf mile claiming field is a chaotic race to unpack, but two horses separate themselves clearly from the pack — the question is whether the heavy favorite holds off a well-rated closer in what could be a pace-influenced finish.

win9Battle CallML 6/5

Battle Call is the clear standout in our TrackWiz model at 89.71, and the market agrees — he's the 6/5 morning line favorite. A 26% career win rate is exceptional for a claimer and tells you this horse competes to win, not just to show. Samuel Marin rides for Jose A. Gallegos, and with an average speed figure of 55 — best among horses who have one — he should be able to dictate or sit just off a pace that could get honest in this big field.

place11BodecreamML 4/1

Bodecream rates second in the field at 85.12, and a 20% career win rate for trainer Jamie Ness's barn is the profile of a horse who can compete at this level. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the call, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's value here against a short-priced favorite. If Battle Call gets caught up in traffic in this large field, Bodecream has the figures to steal the show.

show5TigreML 6/1

Tigre sits third in our ratings at 76.61 with an average speed figure of 54, and trainer Monica McGoey sends him out at a very playable 6/1 morning line. An 11% career win rate on paper seems modest, but in an eleven-horse field on the turf, hitting the board consistently matters more than wins — and the figures say he's capable of doing exactly that. A sensible show bet and a key in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

2:54 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse allowance optional claiming mile on the dirt features a clear top two in the ratings and a potential value play underneath — Caldera is the morning line chalk, but the show pick at 10/1 has the third-best TrackWiz score in the race.

win6CalderaML 6/5

Caldera tops the TrackWiz ratings at 80.71 and owns the field's best career win percentage at 28% — a number that says this horse is a professional winner. Nik Juarez rides for Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., one of the most sharp trainers in the game, and that barn-jockey combination alone demands respect in any allowance company. The 6/5 morning line is short, but the ratings and connections justify the favoritism.

place5StatesmanML 5/1

Statesman rates second at 78.38 for trainer Claude R. McGaughey III — a Hall of Fame conditioner who doesn't spot horses in spots they can't handle. A 20% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 paint the picture of a reliable runner who should be in the mix at the top of the stretch. At 5/1, he's a genuine overlay for second and worth using aggressively in exactas underneath Caldera.

show9Break OutML 10/1

Break Out catches the eye as the show pick with a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and a career win percentage of 31%, which is the highest number in this entire race. Sonny Leon climbs aboard for Michael B. Campbell at 10/1 on the morning line, and that price is a significant overlay relative to a horse sitting in our top three. If the pace gets hot early, Break Out's profile as a closer could set up perfectly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

3:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A ten-horse turf sprint allowance optional claiming race that looks like a speed figure battle at the top — three horses are separated by less than eight points in our ratings, and the pace on Colonial's turf course at 5½ furlongs can get ferocious early.

win9Normandy HeroML 5/1

Normandy Hero tops the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate, posting the profile of a legitimate allowance-level runner. Mychel J. Sanchez picks up the mount for Jamie Ness — a trainer who is represented multiple times on today's card, suggesting a barn in form. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is our clearest overlay of the race: a horse our model rates best who is not the shortest price in the field.

place5Xy SpeedML 5/2

Xy Speed is second in our ratings at 77.58 with the field's top average speed figure of 59 — and that number stands out in a turf sprint where pure speed figures matter most. Paco Lopez rides for Michael Lerman, and a 30% career win rate tells you this horse hits the board consistently. At 5/2, he's likely to be heavily supported and should be a factor wiring the field or sitting a comfortable stalk trip.

show8Louie the Sun KingML 4/1

Louie the Sun King rates third at 77.09 — essentially tied with Xy Speed — and posts a respectable average speed figure of 58 at this sprint distance. Diego A. Herrera rides for Kathleen O'Connell, and an 18% career win rate is solid for the level. At 4/1, he slots in as a legitimate threat who can outrun his odds if either of the top two have a rough trip in a ten-horse turf sprint.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

3:56 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse maiden claiming field on the turf mile is wide on paper, but one horse dominates the ratings by a massive margin — the challenge is whether the top-rated runner can handle pressure from a pair of mid-field contenders who have something to say.

win10Flamenco StarML 8/5

Flamenco Star is the standout of this card with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest score among all horses in today's race, by a considerable margin over second-ranked The Fed's Plot at 62.38. Paco Lopez gets the call for Jorge Duarte, Jr., a barn that's been active and sharp at this meet, and an average speed figure of 54 on turf backs up what the model is screaming. The 8/5 morning line makes her a short-priced favorite, but this is the rare situation where you pay the short price because the gap in class is real.

place7The Fed's PlotML 5/2

The Fed's Plot sits second in our ratings at 62.38 — more than 26 points behind the top pick but more than 10 clear of third-ranked Great Hunt — suggesting she's the most logical place contender in what could be a race between her and Flamenco Star. Samuel Marin rides for Kelsey Danner, and an average speed figure of 53 on turf is competitive for this maiden claiming level. At 5/2, she's a strong play in exactas underneath the heavy favorite.

show3Great HuntML 10/1

Great Hunt checks in third in our ratings at 51.25 with an average speed figure of 53, giving Daniel Centeno something to work with for trainer Gerard Ochoa. In an eleven-horse field where pace can be messy and traffic is guaranteed, a horse rated third with figures that match the field's middle tier can easily land on the board. A sensible show inclusion and a key in any trifecta underneath our top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Today's best bets start with Will Believe and Margie's Last in the free races — both offer morning line value relative to our TrackWiz ratings. In the premium card, Normandy Hero at 5/1 stands out as a potential overlay, and the back-to-back turf mile claimers in Races 4 and 5 set up a multi-race sequence worth building around. Unlock the full card analysis with a TrackWiz subscription — details at /pricing.

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