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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — November 14, 2026

November 14, 202612 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

Best bets at Churchill Downs today

Race 14You Ain't PoppnML 10/11:00 PM EST

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You Ain't Poppn is the best bet among today's free races — a double-digit morning line price in Race 1 (Claiming, 1 mile on dirt) who ranks 2nd in the field for recent race speed and is backed by a jockey sitting at 18% wins and nearly half his mounts finishing in the money. At 10/1, that's value worth circling before the gates open.

Churchill Downs is running 12 races this Saturday under partly cloudy skies with temps sitting around 47°F — crisp fall weather that keeps the track honest and rewards horses with proven late-closing ability. The card blends Claiming and Starter Allowance company with a Maiden Special Weight, a Stakes race, and three turf routes, so there's something for every handicapping style.

The marquee moment is Race 3, a 6-furlong Stakes event where Haulin Ice projects as the morning-line co-favorite at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and the fastest recent pace fractions in the field. It's a full, deep card — and our simulations flagged multiple spots where the morning line is out of line with actual probability.

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Race 1

1:00 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming mile where the top four horses in the TrackWiz ratings are separated by just ten points and no clear pace scenario has emerged — this one could come down to who wants it most late.

win4You Ain't PoppnML 10/1

You Ain't Poppn (#4) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 76.88 despite being sent off at 10/1 on the morning line, making this a legitimate value spot. The horse has gone 2-for-10 on dirt and landed in the money in 6 of those 10 starts, and his recent speed ranks second in the field at 12.32 sec/furlong. The concern is real — he's 0 for 3 at the one-mile distance — but that 18% career win rate and a 54% in-the-money mark suggest consistent effort, and our simulations gave him a 12.71% share despite the top TrackWiz rating. Jockey Francisco Arrieta has an 18% win rate and hit the board in 49% of rides over the past year, so the connections at least know how to cash tickets.

place3Spirit of a WalkonML 2/1

Spirit of a Walkon (#3) earns the place spot on the strength of a consistent recent form cycle and the best workout line in the field — she's clocking at 11.95 sec/furlong over the last month, ranking first among all entrants. She's placed in 4 of her last 6 races, and trainer Dale Romans carries a solid B+ grade. Our simulations liked her enough to give her a 21.64% win share, the highest in the race, suggesting she's a live contender even at the 2/1 morning line.

show2Special CaliberML 7/2

Special Caliber (#2) hasn't raced in 142 days, so there's a fitness question, but her recent race speed tops the field at 12.25 sec/furlong and she's placed in both of her last two outings. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's a reasonable show inclusion in exotics. The jockey-trainer combo of Ortiz/Douaihy is capable but keep an eye on how sharp she looks in the post parade.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Spirit of a Walkon22%
2Special Caliber20%
1Max Money13%

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Race 1 is the free look today, and You Ain't Poppn makes a strong case despite being lightly regarded on the morning line. Our sim pegs the win probability at 12.71% against a 10/1 price implying roughly 9.1% — that's positive expected value in a Claiming field. Speed figures back it up: ranking 2nd in the field for recent race speed at 12.32 seconds per furlong is legitimate in this company. On a cool, firm Churchill dirt strip, horses showing sharp recent fractions tend to hold form, and that's exactly the profile You Ain't Poppn brings.

The pace setup in a one-mile Claiming race often comes down to who's willing to press early and who can sustain it around two turns. Keep an eye on how the early fractions develop — if the pace is contested, You Ain't Poppn's speed ranking becomes even more meaningful as rivals tire in the stretch.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:29 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint on dirt where the field is loaded with horses still searching for their first win, and Fletch's Rockette stands well clear in the TrackWiz ratings — but the workout crowd may lean toward a couple of lightly-raced alternatives.

win4Fletch's RocketteML 4/1

Fletch's Rockette (#4) is the class standout here, posting an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that ranks first in a field of maidens and capturing 24.75% of our 10,000 simulations — the most of any horse in the race. She's placed in 3 of her 4 dirt starts and the Junior Alvarado/William Mott jockey-trainer combination has clicked at a 21% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate over the past year. The knock is that her monthly workout splits rank sixth in the field at 12.25 sec/furlong, so she isn't blazing on the work tab, but her race-day experience and connections make her the clear top choice.

place8IroncladML 5/1

Ironclad (#8) brings the top workout figure in the field — 11.80 sec/furlong over the last month — and has placed in 2 of 3 sprint races, which directly translates to today's six-furlong distance. With a 59.27 rating and a 66% in-the-money career mark, trainer Peter Eurton sends this one out primed at a 5/1 morning line that offers some value in the exotics.

show7Quality LaceML 7/2

Quality Lace (#7) draws attention at 7/2 on the morning line with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating, and while she lacks published race or workout speed figures in the data, the Yomar Ortiz Jr. assignment — an A-grade jockey — gives this one an edge in the gate and down the lane. At 12.89% in our simulations, she projects as a live show horse and an affordable exotics component.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Fletch's Rockette25%
8Ironclad14%
7Quality Lace13%

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Race 3

1:58 PM EST

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes sprint where Saffie Joseph Jr. saddles two of the top three TrackWiz-rated horses, setting up a potential barn exacta — but the morning-line favorite Echo Sound at 9/5 has a perfect record at six furlongs that the market clearly respects.

win2Haulin IceML 3/1

Haulin Ice (#2) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and leads all entrants with a recent race speed figure of 11.81 sec/furlong. The horse has won 48% of career starts and hit the board in 80% of them, going 12-for-23 on dirt — elite consistency for this level. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. carries an A grade, and our simulations awarded Haulin Ice a 25.94% win share, the highest in the field. The 3/1 morning line may actually underlay the numbers a touch given the quality of connections.

place1Mystic LakeML 4/1

Stablemate Mystic Lake (#1) is essentially a coin flip with the top pick on paper — a 83.87 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 46% career win rate with a 78% in-the-money mark. The Gaffalione/Joseph combo has connected at 25% wins and 68% in the money over the past year, making this barn a force in this race. At 4/1, she's a strong place inclusion.

show5Indy BayML 4/1

Indy Bay (#5) rounds out the Joseph trio with a 75.11 rating, a 33% career win rate, and 11 of 15 dirt starts landing in the money. Jose Ortiz, who has hit the board 60% of the time over the past year, takes the mount. At 4/1, she's the third choice but brings enough pedigree and connections to earn a show slot in any multi-horse ticket.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Haulin Ice26%
1Mystic Lake22%
4Echo Sound21%

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Race 4

2:28 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse starter allowance sprint that has a clear top-rated horse in Kerness K, who's posted elite connections and recent race figures, though the race features several horses with strong recent form who could make the board.

win4Kerness KML 3/1

Kerness K (#4) is the standout in this race, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — tied for tops on the card — and a staggering 63% career win rate with a 77% in-the-money mark. His recent race speed ranks second in the field at 11.77 sec/furlong, and the Martin Chuan/Jamie Ness jockey-trainer combo has fired at a 29% win rate and 79% in-the-money rate over the past year. Our simulations gave him 24.57% of outcomes, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's not a ton of overlay, but the horse's raw numbers make him the safest win bet on this portion of the card.

place1SwirvinML 9/2

Swirvin (#1) benefits from the elite Gaffalione/Joseph combo, which has connected at 25% wins and 68% in the money over the past year. The horse has gone 6-for-19 on dirt and placed in 10 of those starts, showing consistent try. The age concern (6 years old) is noted, but form and connections argue for a spot on the place ticket at 9/2.

show7Delta Tau ChiML 6/1

Delta Tau Chi (#7) is quietly one of the most consistent horses in the field — he's placed in every single one of his last 10 races and ranks first for recent race speed at an impressive 11.68 sec/furlong. The concern is age (7 years old), but a 46% career win rate and 92% in-the-money mark are numbers that belong in any exotic ticket. He's a terrific show play at 6/1.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Kerness K25%
1Swirvin13%
7Delta Tau Chi12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

2:57 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf route starter allowance where the morning-line favorite Nerazurri is odds-on but has never hit the board in two Churchill Downs starts, while top-rated Smiling Ellie offers both a better TrackWiz number and better local form — the market and the model diverge here.

win1Smiling EllieML 9/2

Smiling Ellie (#1) holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.90 and has placed in 4 of her last 5 races — form that's hard to argue with coming into a spot like this. Her recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.06 sec/furlong, and Luis Saez, an A-grade jockey with a 20% win rate over the past year, is aboard. Our simulations gave her 24.66% of outcomes, putting her in a virtual dead heat with Nerazurri — but Smiling Ellie's 9/2 morning line offers far better value than the 4/5 chalk.

place8Goats On a TreeML 8/1

Goats On a Tree (#8) has solid credentials at this distance, posting 4 wins and placing in 6 of 9 starts at 1 1/16 miles — that kind of distance affinity is a real edge on the turf. His third-best recent race speed (12.09 sec/furlong) is competitive, and trainer Kinnon LaRose holds an A- grade. The only flag is a rest concern — just 29 days off when he prefers 30 or more. At 8/1 on the morning line and 14.63% in simulations, he's a solid place inclusion.

show7Wandering KirbyML 10/1

Wandering Kirby (#7) posted the best recent race speed in this field at 11.86 sec/furlong and has placed in 4 of his last 5 races. The distance concern is real — just 1 of 4 at 1 1/16 miles — but his sheer recent form and sharp speed figures make him dangerous enough to include in the show spot at 10/1.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Nerazurri25%
1Smiling Ellie25%
8Goats On a Tree15%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:26 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An eleven-horse dirt mile starter allowance with a heavy favorite in Coquito who leads all comers in both TrackWiz rating and simulation win share — the real question is who can run her down or fill out the exacta behind her.

win5CoquitoML 8/5

Coquito (#5) is the most dominant single-race profile on today's card — a 89.12 TrackWiz rating, the top recent race speed in the field at 12.15 sec/furlong, and a 70% in-the-money career mark. She's won 9 of 25 dirt starts and placed in 19, and Luis Saez (A-grade, 20% win rate past year) is in the irons for the sharp Joe Sharp barn. Our simulations put her at 32.92% — by far the highest in the race. At 8/5, she's short, but the numbers justify the price.

place8No Other Like YouML 4/1

No Other Like You (#8) has a TrackWiz rating of 68.07, ranks second in the field, and has placed in both of her last two races on dirt. Tyler Gaffalione (B-grade, 18% win rate, 53% in-the-money past year) rides for a solid David Fawkes stable. With 14.82% simulation share and 4/1 on the morning line, she's a strong place ticket companion to the heavy favorite.

show10Little MarthaML 10/1

Little Martha (#10) brings a 66.64 rating and has placed in all 5 of her last 5 races — that's as consistent as it gets. Her recent race speed ranks second in this field at 12.24 sec/furlong, though her workouts are a bit pedestrian at 12.78 (seventh among entrants). At 10/1 on the morning line, she's a value show play in what could be a chalk-dominated top two.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Coquito33%
8No Other Like You15%
7Mad About Marie11%

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Race 7

3:55 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A sprawling 16-horse starter allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt, where the top TrackWiz rating belongs to Freedom Road at post 10 — a tricky draw in a full field that requires weaving through traffic late.

win10Freedom RoadML 9/2

Freedom Road (#10) holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 75.31 and has gone 15 for 38 on dirt while landing in the money in 29 of those starts — a 74% in-the-money mark that speaks to the horse's consistency at this level. Jose Ortiz, one of the sharper riders on the circuit with a 25% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, takes the mount. The age flag (6 years old) is noted, but the form cycle has been hot — 4 consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in. Our simulations gave Freedom Road a 14.21% win share despite the wide post.

place11Rock N Roll BoltML 12/1

Rock N Roll Bolt (#11) tops the field in recent race speed at 12.21 sec/furlong and shows a 24% career win rate across 22 dirt starts, hitting the board in 15 of them. Trainer Jose Camejo is an A- and Tyler Gaffalione (B-grade, 53% in-the-money past year) rides. At 12/1 on the morning line and 8.90% in simulations, the value is real for a horse who's arguably running the fastest right now.

show16Alinao ForeverML 8/1

Alinao Forever (#16) ranks third in the TrackWiz ratings at 67.29, has placed in his last two races, and posts recent race speed that ties for second in the field at 12.31 sec/furlong. The trainer Dante Zanelli/Yomar Ortiz Jr. pairing offers A-grade connections on both ends. The workout tab is a mild concern (10th among entrants), but at 8/1 on the morning line this is a reasonable show and exotic inclusion in a wide-open field.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

10Freedom Road14%
1Ironsides13%
3Cowboy Mike12%

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Race 8

4:25 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A 12-horse six-furlong starter allowance on dirt where Miracle Ball's recent speed figures stand well above the field and Luis Saez aboard gives the horse a top-flight pilot — but Lady Annabelle has quietly gone 8 straight in the money and looms large at a price.

win5Miracle BallML 7/2

Miracle Ball (#5) is built for a race like this — a 86.35 TrackWiz rating (first in the field), the best recent race speed at 11.69 sec/furlong, and an extraordinary record on dirt: 10 wins from 16 starts, placing in 12. That's a 75% in-the-money mark, and a 52% career win rate. Luis Saez (A-grade, 20% win rate past year) is aboard for trainer Ruben Fuentes. Our simulations gave Miracle Ball 24.65% of outcomes. At 7/2 this isn't a steal, but the raw numbers make her the most defensible win bet of the night.

place7Lady AnnabelleML 6/1

Lady Annabelle (#7) has placed in every single one of her last 8 races — a streak that's impossible to ignore in this field. She ranks second in recent race speed at 11.94 sec/furlong, and the Ernesto Padilla-Preciado barn (A-grade trainer) consistently fields live horses. The concern is age (6 years old), but the momentum of that form streak more than compensates at 6/1 on the morning line.

show3Talkin in CursiveML 5/2

Talkin in Cursive (#3) has placed in all 3 of her last 3 races and ranks third in recent race speed for this field. The jockey concern (Jaime Torres is A- grade with a 29-day layoff that's just inside the zone of concern) is noted, but an 8-win record from 29 dirt starts and a 53% in-the-money career mark suggest a consistent customer. At 5/2 on the morning line she's short for a show pick, but her consistency makes her hard to leave off any exotics.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Miracle Ball25%
3Talkin in Cursive17%
7Lady Annabelle13%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 9

4:55 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open 16-horse turf sprint at five and a half furlongs where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses — Initialize and Shape Note — are separated by less than a point, setting up a potential battle between two horses in sharp recent form.

win12InitializeML 7/2

Initialize (#12) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 80.94 and has placed in 5 of her last 6 races going into today, showing excellent form consistency. Her recent race speed ranks third in the field at 11.33 sec/furlong, and trainer Lacey Gaudet holds an A grade. The one flag is a rest concern — just 17 days between races when she prefers 30 or more. That's a real consideration in a 16-horse field, but our simulations gave her 16.66% — the highest in the race. At 7/2 on the morning line, she remains our top choice.

place2Shape NoteML 4/1

Shape Note (#2) is separated from the top pick by less than half a point in the ratings (80.59 versus 80.94) and has placed in 5 of her last 6 races with a career 48% win rate. Jose Ortiz rides — a 25% win rate and 60% in-the-money past year. The workout tab is a mild concern (10th in the field), but the race form speaks loudly. At 4/1 on the morning line and 15.21% in simulations, she's nearly a co-top pick.

show6Jungle GlowML 8/1

Jungle Glow (#6) has gone in the money 8 times in a row — yes, 8 consecutive in-the-money finishes — which is the kind of consistency that makes a horse hard to beat in exactas and trifectas. The Martin Chuan/Jamie Ness combo has connected at 29% wins and 79% in-the-money over the past year, one of the best trainer-jockey numbers on the card today. At 8/1 on the morning line, she's a genuine value show play in a full field.

We ran Race 9 10,000 times. Most wins:

12Initialize17%
2Shape Note15%
6Jungle Glow11%

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Race 10

5:25 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A deep 14-horse seven-furlong dirt field where Air of Defiance leads all horses with both the top TrackWiz rating and the best recent race speed figure — but Defending Albert from an outside post and Five o' Somewhere with Luis Saez aboard make this a competitive three-way top of the ticket.

win8Air of DefianceML 6/1

Air of Defiance (#8) is the class of this field on paper — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating (first), the top recent race speed at 11.73 sec/furlong, and 8 wins from 20 dirt starts with a 70% in-the-money mark. Our simulations gave the horse 17.54% — the highest in the race. The only real concern is cold workouts (12th in the field), which suggests the connections may be pointing to this race without maximum training intensity. Francisco Arrieta (B- grade) is a capable if not elite rider. At 6/1 on the morning line, the value-to-rating ratio is appealing.

place14Defending AlbertML 9/2

Defending Albert (#14) ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 79.12 and posts the second-fastest recent race speed in this field at 11.74 sec/furlong — almost identical to Air of Defiance. Tyler Gaffalione (B-grade, 18% win rate, 53% in-the-money past year) rides, and the horse has placed in 10 of 12 dirt starts. At 9/2 on the morning line, he's a logical place companion to the top pick and wins 18.46% of simulations.

show3Five o' SomewhereML 4/1

Five o' Somewhere (#3) brings a 74.07 rating, ranks third for recent race speed at 11.90 sec/furlong, and shows 6 wins from 24 dirt starts with a 51% in-the-money mark. Luis Saez is aboard — the best jockey on the card at an A grade — giving this horse a slight edge over the other contenders in terms of pilot quality. At 4/1 on the morning line, he's a solid show and exotics play.

We ran Race 10 10,000 times. Most wins:

14Defending Albert18%
8Air of Defiance18%
3Five o' Somewhere17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 11

5:54 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse starter allowance going a mile and an eighth on dirt, where Expect the Best holds the top TrackWiz rating and an astonishing 10-race in-the-money streak — the question is whether that streak ends here against Papa Yo and Indy Charges On.

win1Expect the BestML 3/1

Expect the Best (#1) has been nothing short of a machine — in the money in 10 consecutive starts, with 5 wins in 15 dirt starts and a 33% career win rate. His TrackWiz rating of 87.08 ranks first in the field, and his recent race speed is second at 12.22 sec/furlong. Rafael Bejarano (B- grade) rides, which isn't elite pilot quality, and trainer Ron Moquett is a C+ — not a powerhouse barn — but the raw form cycle is too strong to fade. Our simulations gave him 25.22%, the most in the race. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's a deserving favorite.

place3Papa YoML 4/1

Papa Yo (#3) has gone 9-for-22 on dirt and placed in 12 of those starts, bringing a 40% career win rate and a 56% in-the-money mark. Tyler Gaffalione is aboard for trainer Linda Rice (A grade), and he's placed in his last 3 consecutive races going into today. At 4/1 on the morning line and 18.42% in simulations, he's the logical place play if you're looking for value beneath the favorite.

show7Indy Charges OnML 7/2

Indy Charges On (#7) has an extraordinary record — placed in 14 of 16 dirt starts and in the money in 12 consecutive races (a 87% career in-the-money mark). Jose Ortiz brings a 25% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, making the connections elite. The workout tab is a mild concern (seventh in the field), but that form streak is simply too consistent to leave off show tickets at 7/2.

We ran Race 11 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Expect the Best25%
3Papa Yo18%
7Indy Charges On17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 12

6:23 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The finale is a full-field 16-horse turf route where Unit Economics towers above the field at a 6/5 morning line and 89.71 TrackWiz rating — the real handicapping challenge is figuring out who fills out the exotics behind a probable short-priced winner.

win2Unit EconomicsML 6/5

Unit Economics (#2) is the standout of the entire day's card — a 89.71 TrackWiz rating (tops in the entire 12-race program) and a 30.08% simulation win share that dwarfs every other horse in the field. Trainer Chad C. Brown (A grade) is one of the sport's elite turf conditioners, and the horse has placed in 2 of his last 3 starts with a 36% career win rate and 72% in-the-money mark. The age concern (6 years old) is flagged, but at 6/5 on the morning line the market and the model both point in the same direction.

place5McCulloughML 9/2

McCullough (#5) ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 77.20 and has placed in all 3 of his last 3 starts. The Martin Chuan/Jamie Ness jockey-trainer combination is one of the sharpest on the card — 29% wins and 79% in-the-money over the past year. The concerns are real (sixth years old, dead-last workouts in the field at 12.94 sec/furlong), but that recent form and those elite connections at 9/2 make him the logical place companion to the heavy chalk.

show14Battle CallML 10/1

Battle Call (#14) is a proven route performer on turf — 4 wins and placing in 8 of 10 starts at 1 1/16 miles, which is exactly today's distance. His recent race speed ranks second in the field at 11.94 sec/furlong, and he's placed in 4 of his last 5 races. Junior Alvarado (B+ grade) rides for Michael Maker. The age flag (7 years old) is there, but that distance record and sharp race speed make him a genuine show threat and an attractive exotics addition at 10/1.

We ran Race 12 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Unit Economics30%
5McCullough13%
14Battle Call9.1%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

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Bottom line: You Ain't Poppn is the free-play value target in Race 1, and Coquito in Race 6 looks like the strongest single on the full card. The cool, partly cloudy conditions at Churchill shouldn't create surface excuses today — it's going to come down to who's moving the right direction at the right class level. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic strategies are all available to TrackWiz subscribers — head to /pricing to get every race covered.

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