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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — November 13, 2026

November 13, 202611 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

Best bets at Churchill Downs today

Race 13BoorayML 4/11:00 PM EST

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Booray is our best bet on the free portion of today's card — a 4/1 morning line shot in Race 1 that our simulations have winning nearly 33% of the time, a significant edge over the morning line implies. That gap between public perception and our model is exactly the kind of spot we love to highlight.

It's a cool, cloudy November afternoon at Churchill Downs — 46°F with 11 races spread across dirt and turf. The card mixes claiming races and maiden events early before getting into allowance company mid-card and finishing with a trio of competitive spots that include a couple of turf routes. November racing at Churchill has a character all its own, and today's card gives bettors plenty to work with.

Race 1 is free for all TrackWiz readers. The remaining 10 races are available to subscribers — and with two turf allowances, a maiden special weight, and some intriguing longshot angles on the back half of the card, there's real money to be made today if you have the right information.

Best Bets

Race 1

1:00 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open six-furlong claiming sprint where the top-rated horse holds a significant edge on paper, but a pair of sneaky contenders at appealing prices could make this competitive at the windows.

win3BoorayML 4/1

Booray is the clear class of this field, sitting atop the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — a full 22 points clear of the next horse. The dirt record is the story here: two wins and placing in all three dirt starts is exactly what you want to see in a claiming sprint. Tyler Gaffalione, who has posted an 18% win rate and hit the board in 53% of his mounts over the past year, is a steady hand in the irons. Our simulations had Booray winning nearly 33% of 10,000 runs, which lines up with the morning line of 4/1 and suggests fair value rather than overlay, but this is simply the right horse in the right spot.

place6Mr. FeteML 8/1

Mr. Fete at 8/1 is a legit value play for the exacta. He's placed in four of his last six starts and owns two wins in his six dirt races — a consistent profile that suggests he'll be in the picture at the wire. The six-furlong distance also suits him, with two wins and two placings in three tries at the distance, so he's proven he can handle today's conditions.

show7Smart N CentsibleML 3/1

Smart N Centsible draws the morning-line favoritism at 3/1, and there's reason for that — he ranks third in the field for recent race speed and posted the second-fastest workout among his rivals over the past month. The slight class drop from $30,000 to $25,000 is a mild positive, and a 50% career win rate gives him legitimate credentials, though he's coming off a stretch where the results haven't matched the promise.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Booray33%
7Smart N Centsible20%
5Modern17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 1 is a 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint, and Booray is the play. Our model clocks Booray's recent race speed at 12.22 seconds per furlong — second-best in the field — and pairs that with a jockey who has posted an 18% win rate and hit the board in 53% of starts over the past year. Those aren't flashy numbers, but they're steady and reliable in a spot where consistency matters. At 4/1 on the morning line with a sim win percentage of nearly 33%, there's legitimate overlay potential here if the board holds.

The cool, firm conditions on a cloudy November day suit a short dirt sprint — no weather complications to factor in, just a clean look at a horse whose recent form and rider combination give us confidence at a price worth playing.

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Race 2

1:29 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tricky maiden claimer going an unusual seven and a half furlongs on dirt, with the top-rated horse flying well under the radar at 12/1 on the morning line while the lukewarm chalk faces some real questions.

win7SculptorML 12/1

Sculptor is our TrackWiz top pick here, checking in with a 73.96 rating — the highest in the field — despite being listed at 12/1 on the morning line, which is a genuine overlay signal. The case is built on a perfect dirt record: Sculptor has placed in all five of his dirt starts, ranking first in this field for recent race speed at 12.54 seconds per furlong. Jockey Alexander Bendezu has put up a remarkable 25% win rate and 64% in-the-money rate over the past year, making this a sharp connections play. Our simulations had Sculptor winning 16% of runs — higher than most horses at double-digit odds — and that dirt consistency is the kind of angle that pays off in maiden claimers.

place1BermudaML 6/5

Bermuda draws post one with Luis Saez aboard — one of the top jockeys in the country — and the Brad Cox barn has a well-deserved Grade-A trainer rating. The 6/5 morning line reflects the public's confidence in those connections, and Bermuda ranks second for recent race speed at 12.61 sec/furlong. The concern is a rough recent form line — no placings in the last start — but with Cox and Saez, give the horse the benefit of the doubt that there's improvement coming.

show3ApexionML 5/1

Apexion gives us the Steven Asmussen barn, one of the most prolific operations in the country, and Keith J. Asmussen in the irons — a 5/1 shot with solid connections worth including in your trifecta. The main knock is that the recent race speed ranks fifth in the field and the form shows two consecutive non-placings, so this is more of an exotic inclusion than a win bet.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Bermuda24%
7Sculptor16%
3Apexion14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 3

1:58 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming affair at Churchill where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses sit at 4/1 and 5/1 — both offering better value than the 8/5 morning-line favorite, setting up a potential upset of the chalk.

win8Find No FaultML 4/1

Find No Fault tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and offers 4/1 on the morning line — that combination is what handicappers dream about. The dirt record is excellent: placing in five of seven starts on the surface, and he's hit the board in four of his last six races, which shows consistency rather than a one-hit wonder. His recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.29 sec/furlong, backing up the numbers with actual performance, and trainer Dale Romans holds an A- grade with Gerardo Corrales aboard. Our sims had Find No Fault winning 22% of the time — the highest in the field — which makes the 4/1 price look genuinely attractive.

place5Summit RidgeML 5/1

Summit Ridge at 5/1 with Luis Saez (20% win rate, 49% in-the-money over the past year) is a solid place play. He's placed in his last two races, owns a solid 4-of-6 dirt record, and the in-the-money percentage of 66% speaks to a horse that's rarely out of the frame. Saez is as reliable a pilot as you'll find, and Summit Ridge's consistency makes him a natural exacta partner with the top pick.

show2Sav'n MoneyML 6/1

Sav'n Money is the speed angle in this race — he ranks first in the field for recent race speed at 12.20 sec/furlong and posted the fastest workout among all nine horses at 11.95. Jose L. Ortiz (25% win rate, 60% in-the-money) gives him an elite rider boost. The career win percentage of 11% and a modest in-the-money rate of 33% suggest he's prone to fading, but in a one-mile trip where early position matters, he's worth including in your trifectas.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Find No Fault22%
5Summit Ridge20%
7Pimlott16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:28 PM EST

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An eleven-horse turf allowance at a mile that features a dominant class standout in post 11, but a pair of live longshots who've been quietly sneaking into the top of the form cycle could make the exotics very interesting.

win11Defiant LassML 5/2

Defiant Lass is the best horse in this race, full stop. She carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81, ranks first for recent race speed at 11.66 sec/furlong — a gap over the second-best — and boasts a 100% in-the-money rate across her recent starts. Jose L. Ortiz pilots her, and his combination with trainer Steven Asmussen has produced a 30% win rate and 72% in-the-money figure over the past year, which is an elite connection angle. Our simulations had her winning nearly 32% of the time, and at 5/2 on the morning line, she's a deserving short-priced favorite.

place6Diablo ShirazML 10/1

Diablo Shiraz at 10/1 is the value play that makes the exacta appealing. She's placed in five of her last six races — an outstanding recent form cycle — and has hit the board in three straight. Jockey Summer Pauly has posted a 19% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate over the past year, and a 53% overall in-the-money rate for Diablo Shiraz shows this is a consistent mare who earns her share of checks.

show8Surprise EndingML 3/1

Surprise Ending draws Tyler Gaffalione at 3/1, and the Gaffalione/Walsh combination has combined for a 23% win rate and 51% in-the-money rate over the past year — a productive partnership worth noting. The concern is real: she hasn't placed in four straight and hasn't raced in 130 days, which often means the connections are using this as a tightener. Keep the exposure modest in exotics, but the connections are too good to ignore entirely.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

11Defiant Lass32%
8Surprise Ending13%
6Diablo Shiraz11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 5

2:57 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 16-horse maiden claiming field going six and a half furlongs on dirt — the kind of chaotic race where the top ratings are fragmented across the deep field, creating real value opportunities for patient bettors.

win4Southern WayML 8/1

Southern Way tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.19 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's exactly the kind of discrepancy we look for. She's shown a 33% in-the-money rate in her career, which isn't flashy, but in a maiden field this deep, it stands out. Mario Gutierrez has an overall grade of B in the irons, and the horse's rating rank of first in the field gives her the edge in our model. At 8/1, she represents genuine overlay value for a first-time maiden winner play.

place5Queens AmbitionML 7/2

Queens Ambition is the speed horse to watch — she ranks second in this field for recent race speed at 12.50 sec/furlong and second in workouts at 12.00. She's hit the board in her only recent start, showing she can transfer workout sharpness to the track. Yomar Ortiz Jr., rated A as a jockey, is a significant rider upgrade, and trainer Joe Sharp holds an A- grade — these are sharp connections for a maiden claimer.

show2Yupaha PrincessML 9/2

Yupaha Princess at 9/2 brings the Kenneth McPeek barn, which earns a B trainer grade, and the jockey/trainer combination has combined for a 22% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year — a solid angle in a race this chaotic. She hasn't posted a recorded average speed figure, suggesting limited form to work with, but the connections and the workout profile make her worth including in your trifecta at a fair price.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Queens Ambition15%
8Erica's Beach11%
2Yupaha Princess9.9%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 6

3:26 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses separated at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in a six-furlong claiming sprint, with the morning-line favorite carrying a legitimate edge but two graded threats lurking at prices that reward exacta and trifecta bettors.

win3Mo WorkML 9/5

Mo Work tops the field with an 83.6 TrackWiz rating and enters as the 9/5 morning-line favorite with Luis Saez — an A-rated jockey who hits the board 49% of the time — in the irons. The dirt record backs it up: two wins and placings in five of ten dirt starts, plus four hits in the money over the last six races, which is a consistent recent form trend. Our simulations had Mo Work winning 26% of the time, the highest of any horse in the race, and the recent race speed (top-5 in the field) aligns with what the numbers are projecting.

place9Lil MuggsML 3/1

Lil Muggs at 3/1 is the horse that keeps Mo Work honest. She ranks first in this field for recent race speed at 12.22 sec/furlong — essentially matching the top horse stride for stride on paper — and owns two wins in 16 dirt starts with a 47% overall in-the-money rate. The simulations gave her a 22% win share, nearly matching the favorite, which suggests she's more of a co-favorite than the morning line implies.

show2Mister PositivityML 8/1

Mister Positivity at 8/1 is the best value among the trio, ranking third overall in TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 and sitting well above his morning-line price. He ranks third in recent race speed at 12.29, owns two wins in six dirt races, and trainer Eric Foster holds an A- grade — an underrated angle in a wide-open claiming race. Including him underneath in the trifecta at 8/1 is a smart investment.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Mo Work26%
9Lil Muggs22%
2Mister Positivity15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

3:55 PM EST

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A five and a half furlong turf allowance with a diverse field of ten, where a clear class edge sits in the double-digit post but two consistent in-the-money horses at overlaid prices make the exacta and trifecta well worth structuring.

win10General BradleyML 4/1

General Bradley holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 81.19 and has been remarkably consistent — placing in four of his last six races, with a strong sprint record of four placings in five tries. Luis Saez (20% win rate, 49% in-the-money) riding for the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn (A- trainer grade) is exactly the kind of connections pairing that fires in allowance spots. At 4/1, he's not a huge overlay, but the quality of his form and the class of his team make him the most solid selection on the card.

place6Bronze BulletML 10/1

Bronze Bullet at 10/1 is a terrific value play. He's placed in four of his last six starts, owns a 75% overall in-the-money rate, and has gone to the board in four of five sprint races — a profile that screams consistency. Tyler Gaffalione in the irons (18% win rate, 53% in-the-money) is a reliable pilot, and trainer Michael Maker knows how to have a horse ready. At double-digit odds, he's worth using underneath in exactas.

show7Mischievous RichieML 8/1

Mischievous Richie at 8/1 has the turf credentials to fit here — one win and two placings in three turf starts, plus a perfect two-of-three record at five and a half furlongs. Walter Rodriguez (22% win rate, 52% in-the-money) is an A-rated jockey who can maneuver this horse into position. The 25% career win percentage and 50% in-the-money rate suggest a horse who finds the board regularly, making him a sensible trifecta piece.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

10General Bradley20%
2On Par14%
7Mischievous Richie12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

4:25 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden special weight sprint on dirt where most of the field is first-time starters or horses with very limited form, leaving the race remarkably open and putting a premium on workout patterns and connections.

win6Mymy's MapML 3/1

Mymy's Map carries a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and ranks first in the field — a slim edge, but an edge nonetheless in a field where most horses are unproven. The Dale Romans barn holds an A- trainer grade, which is exactly the kind of operation you want behind a maiden on debut. Martin Garcia is a solid B-rated jockey, and without race speed figures available for this horse, the trainer pedigree becomes the primary argument. At 3/1, the morning line suggests the market agrees.

place7Frontline FuryML 7/2

Frontline Fury at 7/2 leads the field for recent race speed at 12.26 sec/furlong — the fastest among all horses with race data in this group — and placed in his only prior start. The layoff of 219 days is worth noting; connections may be using this as a spot to tighten up. Junior Alvarado in the irons (B+ jockey grade) gives confidence that the horse will be positioned to run. His 100% in-the-money rate from one start and the top speed figure in the field are hard to ignore.

show10DischargedML 9/2

Discharged at 9/2 brings Doug O'Neill's barn (B trainer grade) and Yomar Ortiz Jr. (A jockey grade) — quality connections for a maiden on the big stage. He ranked third in workouts over the last month at 11.88 sec/furlong, suggesting he's been training sharply, though without race figures it's impossible to know how that translates. At 9/2, he's worth using in trifectas as a third slot given the talent on his team.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Frontline Fury17%
6Mymy's Map17%
4Seaton Springs15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

4:55 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Camp Hale looms as the class of this six-furlong dirt claiming field with the top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin, but two live longshots underneath — one at 15/1 — make the exotics genuinely exciting.

win4Camp HaleML 5/2

Camp Hale is the bet in this race. He tops our ratings at 83.68 — over 14 points clear of the second-ranked horse — and the supporting form is legitimately strong: two wins in eleven dirt starts, four placings in six at six furlongs specifically, and a 71% overall in-the-money rate. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is the logical rider choice, and he ranks second in the field for recent race speed at 11.97 sec/furlong. The only concern is a short 27-day layoff when the data suggests he performs better with 30-plus days between races — worth noting, but not enough to dismiss the top-rated horse in the field. Our sims had him winning 26% of the time.

place6State ConcealML 15/1

State Conceal at 15/1 is a terrific value play. He ranks first in this field for recent race speed at 11.84 sec/furlong — faster than Camp Hale's most recent figure — and has placed in four of his last six races with two wins in eleven dirt starts. His 50% career in-the-money rate and second-highest TrackWiz rating at 69.58 make the 15/1 morning line look significantly overlaid. If you're building an exacta, keying Camp Hale on top of State Conceal could pay very well.

show2Map to the StarsML 4/1

Map to the Stars at 4/1 brings the Steven Asmussen barn (A trainer grade) and an impressive dirt record — two wins and placing in ten of seventeen dirt starts shows this horse gets around this surface. The morning line of 4/1 reflects the public's respect for the connections, and 'more than one win' at today's surface and distance is a positive angle the model flagged. The concern is recent race speed that ranks tenth in the field, so he might need a pace meltdown to close into the frame.

We ran Race 9 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Camp Hale26%
2Map to the Stars13%
6State Conceal11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 10

5:25 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A deep sixteen-horse turf allowance optional claiming mile that's as wide open as it gets — the top TrackWiz-rated horse sits at 12/1 on the morning line, signaling a race where value is scattered throughout the field and the exotics could pay handsomely.

win7Sushi ManML 12/1

Sushi Man is our top-rated horse at 73.96 and offers 12/1 on the morning line — that's a significant overlay for a horse with the best number in a 16-horse field. He's placed in his last two starts and hit the board in three of his last five, showing solid recent form. Francisco Arrieta has posted an 18% win rate and 49% in-the-money rate, and while those aren't elite numbers, the horse's consistent recent form at 61% career in-the-money is the story. The main concern is that his recent race speed ranks 13th in the field — the closing style may need things to set up perfectly.

place16Tough Little NutML 6/1

Tough Little Nut at 6/1 has quietly been a machine at this distance — placing in four of six starts at one mile and hitting the board in four of his last six races overall. The 57% career in-the-money rate is quietly excellent, and trainer Chris Block holds an A- grade. Without a star jockey, the 6/1 price probably reflects the market undervaluing the trainer and the strong distance record. This is a sensible place bet and a trifecta must-use.

show2Dr. AgneML 8/1

Dr. Agne at 8/1 gives you Jose L. Ortiz (25% win rate, 60% in-the-money), who ranks among the best jockeys on the card, and the Ortiz/DeVaux combination has combined for a 24% win rate and 55% in-the-money figure over the past year. The horse most recently won at today's surface and distance — a powerful positive angle — though the overall turf record of placing in just one of six starts is a reason for caution. The connections give him every chance to outrun the 8/1 price.

We ran Race 10 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Maui Strong13%
16Tough Little Nut11%
2Dr. Agne11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 11

5:55 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The finale is a maiden claimer on dirt going six furlongs where a massive overlay in post 8 sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 15/1, setting up one of the more intriguing value plays of the entire card.

win8Domina d'OroML 15/1

Domina d'Oro is our top-rated horse at 69.58 and is priced at 15/1 on the morning line — an enormous gap between rating rank and expected odds that's worth taking seriously. She ranks second in the field for recent race speed at 12.47 sec/furlong and has placed in two of four dirt starts, showing she can compete on the surface. Alexander Bendezu (25% win rate, 64% in-the-money over the past year) is one of the sharper jockeys in the meeting, and the 50% career in-the-money rate from a horse listed at 15/1 is exactly the kind of hidden form cycle that wins tickets. Our sims had her winning 12% of the time — meaningful for a double-digit price.

place2Hoops RivalryML 2/1

Hoops Rivalry draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism from the Brad Cox barn — arguably the top trainer in the country — with Luis Saez (A jockey grade, 20% win rate) in the irons. The 422-day layoff is the question mark the market is wrestling with, but Cox and Saez don't send horses to the post without a plan, and the workout of second-best in the field at 12.00 sec/furlong suggests the horse is sharp despite the extended absence. Our simulations gave Hoops Rivalry a 20% win share, making the 2/1 roughly fair money.

show6Sister WifeML 8/1

Sister Wife at 8/1 brings a slight class drop from $50,000 to $30,000 — a meaningful relief valve that often triggers a bounce-back effort — and Francisco Arrieta (18% win rate, 49% in-the-money) has ridden her before with familiarity. The concern is that she's placed in just one of four dirt starts, so the surface isn't a given, but the class drop angle combined with the 8/1 price makes her a sensible trifecta piece in a wide-open finale.

We ran Race 11 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Hoops Rivalry20%
3Alabama Getaway17%
1Lunar Loop14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Behind the paywall, TrackWiz subscribers get the full 10-race breakdown — including pace projections for the two turf routes in Races 4 and 10, where pace scenario is everything and position at the top of the stretch often decides the winner. We're also breaking down Race 11's maiden claiming field, where Domina d'Oro at 15/1 morning line is flashing a jockey angle that's hard to ignore given that rider's 25% win rate and 64% ITM mark over the past year.

Full-card subscribers also get our multi-race wager strategies — including Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences we've built around today's key races — plus exotic ticket breakdowns with suggested bet sizing. If you're planning to grind the whole card today, the premium analysis is where the real edge lives. See what's included at /pricing.

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The headline play on today's free card is Booray in Race 1 — a 4/1 morning line horse our model loves at nearly 33% simulated win probability. For the full 11-race breakdown including pace projections, exotic tickets, and longshot angles like Domina d'Oro in Race 11, subscribers have everything they need. It's a full November card at Churchill — let's make it count.

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