Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — November 12, 2026

Bright Skittle is the second-highest-rated horse at 79.84 and brings the fastest recent race speed in the entire field — 11.74 sec/furlong, a figure that jumps off the page. The Mott-Alvarado combination has a 21% win rate and hit the board 56% of the time over the past year, which is an elite pairing for a turf maiden. She's placed in three of five turf starts, showing surface affinity. Her last race was a miss and her workouts have been a bit slow, so she's not without risk, but the place tab at 7/2 makes sense.

Soulman is a legitimate value option at 10/1 on the morning line. He ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 63.64, has placed in 44% of his career starts, and his recent race speed of 11.88 sec/furlong is third in the field — behind only Bright Skittle and Quintillion. He's coming off a 137-day freshening, which could mean he's just been pointed for today, and trainer Chris Hartman could have him cranked up. At double-digit odds, he's worth a spot in the trifecta.

Lexico sits second in TrackWiz ratings at 79.57 and has been a model of consistency — one win and six in-the-money finishes from ten dirt starts, with a 46% career in-the-money rate. Walter Rodriguez is a live rider posting a 21% win rate and 53% in-the-money rate over the past year, and his recent race speed of 12.65 sec/furlong is third in the field. The 9/2 morning line represents genuine value for a horse that's proven on the surface and has the figures to hit the board.

Shared Vision is an interesting case — he's the third-ranked horse by TrackWiz rating at 77.16, but his 29.75% sim win share actually leads the entire field, suggesting our model likes him even more than the rating implies. He owns the fastest recent race speed at 12.48 sec/furlong and has gone 1-for-7 on dirt with three additional in-the-money finishes, including a strong 3-of-4 mark right here at Churchill Downs. He's the morning-line favorite at 6/5, so the show price won't be juicy, but he's a must-use underneath in exotics.

Leedu is the clear second choice at 75.78 TrackWiz rating and brings a potent jockey-trainer combination — Jose Ortiz is posting a 25% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, and the Ortiz-Sharp combo has hit at a 24% clip with 52% in the money. Her recent race speed of 12.65 sec/furlong is second in the field, and a 66% career in-the-money rate makes her a natural place horse. She's the right horse to key underneath Order Restored in exactas.

Hathaway opens at 4/1 and ranks third in the field by TrackWiz rating at 55.0, with the best workout of the past month at 11.95 sec/furlong — a bullet that suggests she's ready to fire. Yomar Ortiz Jr. takes the mount and has posted a strong A jockey grade. The main concern is that her recent race speed ranks fourth in the field and she didn't hit the board in her last start, but at 4/1 for show she's a reasonable hedge in multi-horse wagers.

Tramuntana is the second-rated horse at 85.07 and has Luis Saez, an A-graded jockey with a 20% win rate and 49% in-the-money rate. She's placed in three of her last five starts and her recent race speed of 12.11 sec/furlong ranks third in the field. The one concern worth flagging: she hasn't placed in any of her three tries at Churchill Downs specifically, so there's a track bias question. Still, the form and the connections make her a legitimate exacta partner with High South.

Rain Gold at 8/1 is intriguing as a show play. She ranks third in TrackWiz ratings at 74.27 and has the best jockey on the card — Jose Ortiz, who's won 25% and hit the board 60% of the time over the past year — with the Ortiz-DeVaux combo producing a 24% win rate and 55% in-the-money mark. She owns a 1-win, 2-in-the-money record in three starts at the one-mile distance, which fits today perfectly. Her last two races were misses, so she needs a bounce-back, but the talent is there at a playable price.

Harry Houdini is second in the TrackWiz ratings at 73.16 and also dropped sharply in claiming price from $50,000 to $20,000, which is a double class drop that typically signals a stable trying to find the right spot. His recent race speed of 12.82 sec/furlong is third in the field, and he's hit the board 40% of the time in his career. His last race was a miss and workouts rank seventh, so he's not without concerns — but at 5/2 he has enough talent to land in the exacta.

Consequential is third in TrackWiz ratings at 65.22 and brings a live rider in Miguel Fernandez, who's posted a 21% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year. He's won 16.4% of our simulations and his workouts rank third among the field over the past month. The concern is a rough recent form cycle — no in-the-money finishes in his last five starts and only two from eight dirt starts total — but he's shown enough ability to land in trifecta consideration at 4/1.

Banned for Life owns the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at 11.84 sec/furlong — that's a standout figure in a sprint — and his overall dirt record is impressive: three wins and 12 in-the-money finishes from 17 starts. He's placed in four of his last six races, showing consistent recent form, and trainer Carlos Santamaria holds an A grade. The one flag is that his claiming price jumped from $40,000 to $62,500, so he's stretching up in company — but the pure speed figures say he belongs.

Charlie Foxtrot at 12/1 is worth a trifecta look with the best in-the-money credentials at this price. He ranks third in the field at 64.25 TrackWiz rating and has placed in back-to-back races coming in. His dirt record is solid — three wins and four in-the-money finishes from eight starts — and his recent race speed of 12.01 sec/furlong ranks second in the field. He's stepping up in claiming price from $50,000 to $62,500 and is 0-for-4 at this distance specifically, so he's a hedge rather than a primary play, but the recent form trend earns him a spot in the bottom of the exotics.

Out of Deductions ranks second in TrackWiz ratings at 78.97 and brings distance credentials that are tough to ignore — one win and six in-the-money finishes from nine starts at exactly 1-1/16 miles, plus three wins and 12 in-the-money from 22 turf starts. That's a horse built for today's conditions. The concern is a 28-day turnaround when his record suggests he runs better with 30 or more days of rest — a small but real flag. At 5/1 on the morning line, the place tab offers solid value.

Baltimore Heart at 8/1 brings a specific edge that's worth highlighting: two wins and four in-the-money finishes from six starts at this exact distance and surface combination. That kind of targeted form at today's conditions is a meaningful positive, and his jockey-horse combination has hit the board 49% of the time together. The concern is that his recent race speed ranks 15th in the field, so he'll likely need cover and a pace that sets up for closers — but his track record at 1-1/16 on turf makes him a live show candidate at double-digit odds.