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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 13, 2026

September 13, 202610 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

Churchill Downs is open for business on a warm Sunday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting at 86°F. The track is hosting a 10-race card that mixes maiden claimers, allowance company, and a pair of turf routes — plenty of variety for every kind of bettor.

With the thermometer pushing into the mid-80s and no rain in the forecast, expect a fast, consistent dirt surface all afternoon. That sets the table nicely for speed horses who can get to the front and control their own destiny. The turf course in Races 4 and 8 should be in good shape as well — firm footing that rewards horses with clean trips and late kick.

Ten races, multiple surface switches, and a handful of live longshots scattered throughout the card — there's a lot to dig into today. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming mile on the dirt with a field full of first-time winners — the key question is which horse has the most upside, and the morning line tells a clear story with Midnight Escapade installed as the even-money favorite.

win3Midnight EscapadeML EVN

Midnight Escapade draws the eye immediately — topped our TrackWiz ratings at 60.0, the highest in this field by a comfortable margin, and Steven Asmussen is one of the most reliable trainers in the country when he sends out a maiden at even money. Jose L. Ortiz in the irons is a significant plus; he doesn't waste trips on horses without a shot. In a field where everyone is looking for a first win, the class and connections here stand well above the rest.

place7She Is a ClassicML 7/2

She Is a Classic breaks from post 7 with Tyler Gaffalione up, and that's a pairing worth respecting at 7/2 on the morning line. Her TrackWiz rating of 55.83 is second in the field, and trainer Brendan P. Walsh consistently gets his maidens ready to fire first out. If Midnight Escapade gets loose on the front end, She Is a Classic looks like a natural runner-up type who will be running late.

show4DenialML 9/2

Denial at 9/2 represents solid third-place value in an all-maiden field. Her rating of 54.17 puts her squarely in the conversation, and trainer Brittany Vanden Berg has shown a knack for placing horses in spots they can compete. In wide-open maiden races, having a price horse in the show slot of your exacta or trifecta makes a lot of sense.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 7.5-furlong dirt claimer features a genuine pace duel brewing with multiple horses carrying above-average speed figures, while the morning line hides what may be the two best horses well off the chalk.

win4Classic Car WashML 3/1

Classic Car Wash leads our TrackWiz ratings at 77.49 and comes in at a manageable 3/1 on the morning line — the kind of price where you're getting a fair return on the most likely winner. A 20% career win rate from trainer Chris Hartman's barn is respectable, and Mitchell Murrill has been a reliable force at Churchill. The average speed figure of 54 ties several horses in this field, but the overall rating separation gives Classic Car Wash a meaningful edge.

place2Tuskegee AirmenML 12/1

Tuskegee Airmen is the value horse of this race — a 73.96 TrackWiz rating second only to our win pick, yet the morning line has him at 12/1. That's a significant overlay if our numbers hold up. Tyler Gaffalione has been sharp all meet, and a 19% career win rate suggests this horse knows how to fire. The pace setup over 7.5 furlongs may set up perfectly for a closer, and Tuskegee Airmen looks like exactly that profile.

show3Light the WayML 5/1

Light the Way draws Flavien Prat, who rarely wastes a mount on a horse without a realistic path to the board. A 67.94 rating and 23% career win rate — the best win percentage among our top three picks — gives him genuine credentials at 5/1. Michael Maker trains horses to be competitive in these spots, and if the pace gets hot up front, the closer profile could land him in the money.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Tennesseehoneybee looks like a significant class standout in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but a lively supporting cast led by Margoinabubblebath and Fugitive Star will push the pace and keep this from being a walkover.

win2TennesseehoneybeeML 8/5

Tennesseehoneybee is the kind of horse you build your ticket around — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the rest of the field, a 29% career win rate, and the best average speed figure in the race at 56. Jose Ortiz pilots her from post 2, which sets up nicely for a trip just off a pace she can control or rate behind. At 8/5 on the morning line, she's deservedly favored, and we see no reason to fade her.

place3MargoinabubblebathML 3/1

Margoinabubblebath checks in at 67.15 on the TrackWiz scale and carries a strong 27% career win rate into this spot — the second-best winning percentage among our picks. Axel Concepcion has been a quietly effective rider this season, and trainer Michael Tomlinson places horses shrewdly. If anything breaks Tennesseehoneybee's way to the lead, Margoinabubblebath has the back class to hold second through the stretch.

show6Fugitive StarML 8/1

Fugitive Star at 8/1 offers genuine exotic value — a 66.12 rating that sits just behind Margoinabubblebath, and Tyler Gaffalione rarely accepts mounts he can't place. Trainer David Jacobson, who also saddles Tuskegee Airmen in Race 2, has strong stable form at this meeting. In a 6-furlong sprint where pace shapes everything, Fugitive Star's speed figure (55 avg) keeps him dangerous for third money.

Our free best bets cover the first three races on the card, and there's a clear thread running through them: horses we trust to handle today's fast, dry conditions on the Churchill dirt. Midnight Escapade opens things up in Race 1, an even-money morning line shot in a maiden claimer going one mile — manageable distance, no pace pressure worries. Race 2 shifts to 7½ furlongs, where Classic Car Wash at 3/1 profiles as a solid value option with a TrackWiz rating of 77.49 in what shapes up as a winnable claiming field.

The highlight of the free card is Race 3, where Tennesseehoneybee posts our highest free-race rating at 89.12 going six furlongs at 8/5 on the morning line. In a short sprint on a fast dirt track, that kind of rating speaks for itself — this one looks like the best bet of the early card and a horse worth building around if you're thinking multi-race wagers.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse maiden claiming field on the Churchill turf mile-and-an-eighth — wide open on paper, but Gallatin's rating towers over the field and presents a clear best bet hidden behind a generous morning line.

win13GallatinML 6/1

Gallatin is the standout of this field by TrackWiz metrics, posting an 82.71 rating — roughly 16 points clear of the next competitor, Flaming Rainbow. He's going off at 6/1 on the morning line, which represents real overlay value given how dominant his profile looks relative to this maiden field. Miguel Fernandez takes the mount, and at 1 1/8 miles on the turf, the added ground should suit a horse who projects to settle and run late. The extra distance is often where lightly raced maidens with ability separate themselves.

place10Flaming RainbowML 3/1

Flaming Rainbow is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and backs it up with a 66.68 TrackWiz rating — second in this field. Kenneth McPeek is a trainer who knows his turf horses, and Emmanuel Esquivel gives him a capable pilot. As a place horse, Flaming Rainbow offers the security of likely being near the front of the betting, which means he'll draw support and is likely to be competitive throughout.

show1Last MomentML 5/1

Last Moment breaks from the rail with Jose Ortiz — and no jockey at Churchill makes more of post 1 than Ortiz, who finds a way to manufacture clean trips from awkward positions. A 62.19 rating and Asmussen in the trainer's box gives Last Moment a legitimate foundation. As a show play, he's the kind of price-to-quality combo that rounds out a trifecta nicely at 5/1.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The 7-furlong allowance optional claiming features a legitimate pace question — a chalk battle between Look Forward and Nooni could set things up beautifully for a closer, and Spring Dancer may be the beneficiary hiding at 8/1.

win4Spring DancerML 8/1

Spring Dancer is our top-rated horse in Race 5 at 79.79 and goes at 8/1 — that's a meaningful overlay in a field where the 8/5 favorite (Look Forward, 67.55) rates well below him. A 33% career win rate is elite for any level, and Jaime Torres is live at Churchill. Trainer Randy Morse doesn't show up in allowance company often, which means when he does, expect a horse that's been pointed specifically at a spot like this.

place6Look ForwardML 8/5

Look Forward is the morning line favorite at 8/5 and rated 67.55 — she'll attract plenty of money and is clearly well-placed by trainer Michael McCarthy. Umberto Rispoli is a polished rider who won't waste ground. She makes strong place sense as a horse likely to contend throughout, and if the pace dynamics keep it honest early, her consistency should keep her on the board.

show5NooniML 3/1

Nooni sits at 3/1 with a 67.5 rating — virtually identical to Look Forward — and carries a sparkling 37% career win rate, the highest in this field. Bob Baffert rarely sends horses to Churchill without a real shot, and Florent Geroux is a savvy hand at 7 furlongs. The show position feels like the floor for a horse of this profile, and if Spring Dancer wins big, Nooni and Look Forward are likely to sort out second and third.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep maiden special weight mile on the dirt — twelve runners, nearly all first-time winners, making pace projection nearly impossible, but the top of the TrackWiz ratings gives us a workable hierarchy to play.

win2Clever MissML 7/2

Clever Miss leads all runners with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 7/2 — the kind of spot where Steven Asmussen sends out a well-prepared maiden with Flavien Prat aboard. Prat doesn't accept rides without purpose, and Asmussen's maiden win percentage is consistently strong on the Churchill dirt. In a field with no clear standout speed figure, Clever Miss's composite rating advantage should be enough to make her the right side of the exacta.

place4Jerri JoML 9/2

Jerri Jo at 9/2 is backed by Riley Mott, a trainer with solid Churchill credentials, and gets Jaime Torres for the trip. Her 54.17 rating is right behind Clever Miss, and in wide-open maiden fields, the second-best horse often finds its way to the place slot. She's listed at 9/2, offering genuine value if she runs to her number.

show9High Speed ReedML 5/1

High Speed Reed brings something most of this field lacks — an actual speed figure on record, checking in at an average of 54, which is meaningful in a field heavy with first-timers showing no published work. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Mark Casse, a trainer-jockey combination that has clicked at this meet. At 5/1, High Speed Reed rounds out the trifecta ticket with substance rather than hope.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A crowded 12-horse claiming mile on the dirt, and this one has a clear top of the market — Gee No Hollander's rating separates him from the field, but Curahee and Global Sensation are lurking at prices worth noting.

win12Gee No HollanderML 3/1

Gee No Hollander sits at the top of our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 87.08 — a substantial gap over the next competitor. Jose Ortiz is aboard from post 12, and while outside posts can be a concern at a mile, Ortiz has the tactical sense to find cover early. A 3/1 morning line on a horse with this kind of rating advantage in a claiming field is perfectly fair value, and trainer Kinnon LaRose has him pointed right.

place3CuraheeML 6/1

Curahee at 6/1 is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 70.97 and draws the powerful Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Robertino Diodoro. An 18% career win rate is exactly what you expect from a legitimate claiming contender, and at 6/1, he offers place value that exceeds his actual probability of running second. Diodoro is a sharp conditioner who travels horses when they're right.

show8Global SensationML 5/1

Global Sensation brings the strongest career win rate among our three selections at 27% and checks in at 68.51 on the TrackWiz scale — third in this field and only a tick behind Curahee. Trainer Carlos Santamaria has him at a manageable 5/1, and Jaime Torres on board gives him a legitimate pilot. In a 12-horse field at a mile, a horse with a 27% win rate deserves show respect at minimum.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of 14 in this 1 1/16-mile turf claimer creates a complex pace scenario, but the numbers point sharply to Snare at the top while Culture War and Intuitive Wisdom represent strong supporting value.

win11SnareML 3/1

Snare is our top-rated horse in Race 8 at 87.08, matching the highest score we've seen in any claiming race today, and he goes at 3/1 — entirely fair odds for a horse who leads this field by a wide margin. Flavien Prat takes the mount for trainer Paul McGee, and Prat on the turf at Churchill is about as reliable a combination as you'll find. The 56 average speed figure is the best in the field, and for a 1 1/16-mile turf route, that kind of sustained speed is exactly what wins.

place5Culture WarML 6/1

Culture War at 6/1 rates second in this field at 75.67 and gets Joel Rosario — a jockey who has shown a particular comfort level on the Churchill turf course. The 8% career win rate is modest, but trainer Robert Medina has him at a price that implies longer odds than his rating warrants. If Snare gets a clean trip, Culture War has the profile of a horse who can run him down for second.

show7Intuitive WisdomML 6/1

Intuitive Wisdom at 6/1 posts a 69.13 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and a 16% career win rate that's solid for turf claimer company. Tyler Gaffalione is the go-to rider in these spots, and Nicholas Vaccarezza is a trainer who knows how to place turf horses. In a 14-horse field with pace likely to be contested early, a horse who can rate and run late like Intuitive Wisdom is exactly the kind of show play that cashes.

Race 9

8:54 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The 6-furlong allowance on the dirt has an interesting pace question — Just Bluffing and Yo Fancy both carry elite 50% career win rates, but our TrackWiz ratings say the value is sitting at 6/1 with No What Ifs.

win6No What IfsML 6/1

No What Ifs heads our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 — the highest in this allowance field — and goes at a generous 6/1 morning line that implies he's being underestimated. A 22% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure (tied for best in the race) give him legitimate standing in a field of quality horses. Trainer Grant Forster and jockey Jareth Loveberry have a working relationship here, and at allowance level, a horse rated this high going off at this price deserves serious attention.

place8Moonlight DashML 9/2

Moonlight Dash brings a 73.75 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and Axel Concepcion gets the call for trainer Philip Bauer. At 9/2 on the morning line, she represents the kind of well-priced place horse who likely runs second to our top selection if the race sets up as we project. A 16% career win rate understates her competitiveness at this level given the rating.

show2FeminismML 3/1

Feminism at 3/1 is the shortest price among our three selections, but her 65.62 rating and 25% career win rate make her the kind of horse who consistently finds the board. Jose Ortiz rides for the powerful Asmussen barn — a combination that rarely runs out of the money at Churchill. She's the safety net in the exotics here, the horse who keeps you alive when the pace gets messy.

Race 10

9:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale is a maiden special weight sprint on the dirt, and Bob Baffert's Big Jake looks every bit the part of a heavy favorite — but at 2/1, the interesting plays may be lurking at mid-prices in a field with real second-tier talent.

win3Big JakeML 2/1

Big Jake is as clear a win selection as you'll see — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that leads all 12 runners by a substantial margin, the top average speed figure in the field at 55, and Flavien Prat in the irons for Bob Baffert. Baffert doesn't ship horses to Churchill for no reason, and Prat doesn't ride horses he can't win with. The 2/1 morning line reflects the market's respect for this horse, and our numbers agree entirely.

place7FlickML 6/1

Flick is a fascinating place option at 6/1 — a 65.53 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field, and trainer Michael Tomlinson has shown real ability to prepare maidens for competitive efforts. Gabriel Saez takes the mount and can be effective in these sprint spots. If Big Jake runs away with it, Flick's speed figure (54 avg) and overall rating put him squarely in the place conversation at a price the public may overlook.

show11C's TodayML 9/2

C's Today comes in with a 57 average speed figure — the highest in the entire race — and a 54.17 TrackWiz rating that puts her third among our picks. Martin Garcia has been effective at Churchill, and trainer Robert Medina is capable at this level. The 9/2 morning line makes her reasonably priced, and in a 12-horse maiden sprint, the show slot often falls to a horse who flashed raw speed in previous works — which her figures suggest she has.

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Today at Churchill Downs shapes up as a card worth attacking from the jump. Tennesseehoneybee is our marquee free-card selection in Race 3, while Big Jake and Gee No Hollander headline the premium side with top-tier TrackWiz ratings. The fast dirt and firm turf set up a surface that rewards well-prepared horses — and well-prepared bettors. Full race-by-race analysis, pace projections, and exotic strategies are all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there.

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