Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 13, 2026

Margoinabubblebath checks in at 67.15 on the TrackWiz scale and carries a strong 27% career win rate into this spot — the second-best winning percentage among our picks. Axel Concepcion has been a quietly effective rider this season, and trainer Michael Tomlinson places horses shrewdly. If anything breaks Tennesseehoneybee's way to the lead, Margoinabubblebath has the back class to hold second through the stretch.

Fugitive Star at 8/1 offers genuine exotic value — a 66.12 rating that sits just behind Margoinabubblebath, and Tyler Gaffalione rarely accepts mounts he can't place. Trainer David Jacobson, who also saddles Tuskegee Airmen in Race 2, has strong stable form at this meeting. In a 6-furlong sprint where pace shapes everything, Fugitive Star's speed figure (55 avg) keeps him dangerous for third money.

Flaming Rainbow is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and backs it up with a 66.68 TrackWiz rating — second in this field. Kenneth McPeek is a trainer who knows his turf horses, and Emmanuel Esquivel gives him a capable pilot. As a place horse, Flaming Rainbow offers the security of likely being near the front of the betting, which means he'll draw support and is likely to be competitive throughout.

Last Moment breaks from the rail with Jose Ortiz — and no jockey at Churchill makes more of post 1 than Ortiz, who finds a way to manufacture clean trips from awkward positions. A 62.19 rating and Asmussen in the trainer's box gives Last Moment a legitimate foundation. As a show play, he's the kind of price-to-quality combo that rounds out a trifecta nicely at 5/1.

Look Forward is the morning line favorite at 8/5 and rated 67.55 — she'll attract plenty of money and is clearly well-placed by trainer Michael McCarthy. Umberto Rispoli is a polished rider who won't waste ground. She makes strong place sense as a horse likely to contend throughout, and if the pace dynamics keep it honest early, her consistency should keep her on the board.

Nooni sits at 3/1 with a 67.5 rating — virtually identical to Look Forward — and carries a sparkling 37% career win rate, the highest in this field. Bob Baffert rarely sends horses to Churchill without a real shot, and Florent Geroux is a savvy hand at 7 furlongs. The show position feels like the floor for a horse of this profile, and if Spring Dancer wins big, Nooni and Look Forward are likely to sort out second and third.

Jerri Jo at 9/2 is backed by Riley Mott, a trainer with solid Churchill credentials, and gets Jaime Torres for the trip. Her 54.17 rating is right behind Clever Miss, and in wide-open maiden fields, the second-best horse often finds its way to the place slot. She's listed at 9/2, offering genuine value if she runs to her number.

High Speed Reed brings something most of this field lacks — an actual speed figure on record, checking in at an average of 54, which is meaningful in a field heavy with first-timers showing no published work. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Mark Casse, a trainer-jockey combination that has clicked at this meet. At 5/1, High Speed Reed rounds out the trifecta ticket with substance rather than hope.

Curahee at 6/1 is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 70.97 and draws the powerful Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Robertino Diodoro. An 18% career win rate is exactly what you expect from a legitimate claiming contender, and at 6/1, he offers place value that exceeds his actual probability of running second. Diodoro is a sharp conditioner who travels horses when they're right.

Global Sensation brings the strongest career win rate among our three selections at 27% and checks in at 68.51 on the TrackWiz scale — third in this field and only a tick behind Curahee. Trainer Carlos Santamaria has him at a manageable 5/1, and Jaime Torres on board gives him a legitimate pilot. In a 12-horse field at a mile, a horse with a 27% win rate deserves show respect at minimum.

Culture War at 6/1 rates second in this field at 75.67 and gets Joel Rosario — a jockey who has shown a particular comfort level on the Churchill turf course. The 8% career win rate is modest, but trainer Robert Medina has him at a price that implies longer odds than his rating warrants. If Snare gets a clean trip, Culture War has the profile of a horse who can run him down for second.

Intuitive Wisdom at 6/1 posts a 69.13 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and a 16% career win rate that's solid for turf claimer company. Tyler Gaffalione is the go-to rider in these spots, and Nicholas Vaccarezza is a trainer who knows how to place turf horses. In a 14-horse field with pace likely to be contested early, a horse who can rate and run late like Intuitive Wisdom is exactly the kind of show play that cashes.

Moonlight Dash brings a 73.75 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and Axel Concepcion gets the call for trainer Philip Bauer. At 9/2 on the morning line, she represents the kind of well-priced place horse who likely runs second to our top selection if the race sets up as we project. A 16% career win rate understates her competitiveness at this level given the rating.

Feminism at 3/1 is the shortest price among our three selections, but her 65.62 rating and 25% career win rate make her the kind of horse who consistently finds the board. Jose Ortiz rides for the powerful Asmussen barn — a combination that rarely runs out of the money at Churchill. She's the safety net in the exotics here, the horse who keeps you alive when the pace gets messy.

Flick is a fascinating place option at 6/1 — a 65.53 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field, and trainer Michael Tomlinson has shown real ability to prepare maidens for competitive efforts. Gabriel Saez takes the mount and can be effective in these sprint spots. If Big Jake runs away with it, Flick's speed figure (54 avg) and overall rating put him squarely in the place conversation at a price the public may overlook.

C's Today comes in with a 57 average speed figure — the highest in the entire race — and a 54.17 TrackWiz rating that puts her third among our picks. Martin Garcia has been effective at Churchill, and trainer Robert Medina is capable at this level. The 9/2 morning line makes her reasonably priced, and in a 12-horse maiden sprint, the show slot often falls to a horse who flashed raw speed in previous works — which her figures suggest she has.