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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 202611 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

Churchill Downs is open for business on Saturday, September 12, and Mother Nature is making things interesting right out of the gate. Rain is falling on a warm 77°F afternoon in Louisville, which means the main track is going to be playing wet — and that changes everything from pace scenarios to post-position angles.

We've got a beefy 11-race card to work through, and it's loaded at the top end: five stakes races occupy Races 6 through 10, giving serious handicappers plenty to sink their teeth into. Whether you're building a late Pick 5 or hunting a single monster score in the feature, today's card has the ammunition.

The wet dirt is the storyline of the day. Some horses love it, some hate it, and our TrackWiz ratings already factor in surface-preference data — so lean on us to sort the mudlarks from the mud-avoiders before you pull the trigger on any tickets.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A deep Starter Allowance field at 1 1/8 miles where one horse's TrackWiz rating towers over the rest — but the morning line tells a different story, making this a rare overlay situation to exploit.

win7North ShipML 5/1

North Ship (#7) is the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field with an 84.17 rating — a number that separates him from the pack by nearly 17 points. Tyler Gaffalione gets the call for Saffie Joseph Jr., a barn that knows how to spot-place horses for maximum impact. The 5/1 morning line feels generous given how dominant the rating differential is, and the 1 1/8-mile distance gives this horse room to get rolling. At those odds, he's the most attractive win bet on the board in this race.

place2Fountain RunML 5/2

Fountain Run (#2) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and backs it up with a solid 67.81 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate — that's a consistent performer by any measure. Danny Sheehy takes the mount for Anna Meah, and the horse's average speed figure of 53 keeps him competitive in this pace scenario. If North Ship hits any traffic at a mile and an eighth, Fountain Run is right there to capitalize.

show3Military RoadML 6/1

Military Road (#3) matches Fountain Run's 27% career win rate and carries a 66.88 rating — nearly identical profile to the place pick, which makes him an excellent exotic inclusion. Rafael Bejarano is a savvy handler of pace scenarios at this distance, and at 6/1 on the morning line, Military Road offers real value in exactas and trifectas underneath North Ship. He's the kind of horse who quietly runs his race every time out.

Race 2

5:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with first-timers and lightly-raced types making pedigree and trainer intent everything — one standout rating breaks from a mid-card post in a field where morning-line favorites rarely deserve chalk faith.

win2Love DivineML 8/1

Love Divine (#2) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field by a significant margin at 77.60, and the 8/1 morning line makes this a genuine value play in a wide-open maiden. Keith Asmussen gets the leg up for Steven Asmussen, a Hall of Fame trainer who knows exactly how to develop a maiden and time a debut or early start. The horse's average speed figure of 55 is tied for best in the field among runners with recorded works. In maiden races, trainer intent and raw ability trump experience — Love Divine has both.

place5KaykayML 3/1

Kaykay (#5) is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and is saddled by Flavien Prat for the Bob Baffert barn — that's a combination that demands respect in any maiden field. Baffert's operation historically produces first-out winners, and Prat is one of the shrewdest tactical riders in the country. At 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, the pace is likely to be honest, which suits a horse with natural early foot.

show10Army's MarauderML 20/1

Army's Marauder (#10) is the sneaky longshot in this field at 20/1, posting a 56.26 TrackWiz rating that actually edges out Kaykay in the model — a classic overlay situation. Luis Saez is a graded-stakes-level jockey who doesn't take throwaway mounts, so his presence here on a 20-1 shot is worth noting. The recorded average speed of 54 is respectable for this level, and in a field full of unknowns, Marauder's underlying numbers make him a live ticket in the exacta.

Race 3

5:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Thirteen runners fill this turf maiden claimer going 1 1/8 miles, and the pace will be a grinding affair — the horse with the strongest class profile and clean trip figures to have a decisive late advantage.

win5Risky WaveML 6/1

Risky Wave (#5) tops this field with an 82.13 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the race by a considerable margin — and gets Victor Carrasco in the irons for trainer George Arnold II. The 6/1 morning line is genuinely surprising given that rating edge, suggesting the market hasn't fully caught up. On turf at this route distance, a horse with a clean profile and strong underlying numbers typically gets rewarded when pace scenarios play out favorably. This looks like a prime overlay opportunity.

place9Patron SilverML 7/2

Patron Silver (#9) is the morning-line co-favorite at 7/2 and comes in with a 74.82 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Emmanuel Esquivel handles the mount for Kenneth McPeek, a trainer with a sharp eye for placing horses on the right surface at the right distance. Patron Silver's average speed of 53 is consistent with the field median, meaning he should be right in the mix throughout and positioned for a strong late move on the turf.

show7Summer DateML 9/2

Summer Date (#7) checks in with a 67.59 rating and gets Joel Rosario — one of the most accomplished turf jockeys riding today — for trainer Robert Medina. The 9/2 morning line reflects real public confidence, and Rosario's turf IQ is a genuine asset in a 13-horse field where positioning through the first half-mile is critical. At that price point, Summer Date is a logical show bet and a key piece in any multi-horse exotic.

We're unlocking three races for every reader today, and they span the full range of conditions — a Starter Allowance at a route, a Maiden Special Weight sprint, and a Maiden Claiming on the turf (keep an eye on whether that race gets moved to the wet main track before post time). North Ship opens the card as our top play in Race 1, carrying an 84.17 TrackWiz rating at a juicy 5/1 morning line — that's the kind of overlay we love on a rain day when softer track advocates get overlooked by the crowd. In Race 2, Love Divine at 8/1 is the value standout; maiden sprints on wet dirt can be a crapshoot, but our analysis points to a horse the public is underrating. Risky Wave rounds out the free card in Race 3.

The connecting thread across all three? Each of our free picks is a morning-line underdog — nobody's asking you to take chalk today. The rain tends to compress speed figures and scramble form, which is exactly when overlays at mid-range odds become most valuable. Play these with confidence, but manage your bankroll accordingly — wet tracks keep even the sharpest cards humble.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:18 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong allowance features a genuine top-two duel between two horses separated by less than two rating points — expect a pace scenario that sets up for a mid-pack closer to steal the show if those front-runners go to war.

win4MumdoggieML 4/1

Mumdoggie (#4) leads all comers with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and sports a 20% career win rate against allowance company — that's a reliable baseline for this level. Luis Saez is a top-tier jockey who excels in sprint scenarios, and trainer Michael Maker has a well-documented history of placing horses in spots where their speed figures project favorably. The 4/1 morning line is fair value given the rating edge, and the 56 average speed figure is tied for tops in the field.

place5Send CashML 9/2

Send Cash (#5) runs right behind Mumdoggie in the ratings at 83.91 and actually owns the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 — a tick better than anyone else in this sprint. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. gets the mount for trainer David Fawkes, and with a 23% career win rate, Send Cash is a proven performer at this level. If Mumdoggie gets into any trouble or the pace gets hot, Send Cash is perfectly positioned to swoop late.

show1Find No FaultML 8/1

Find No Fault (#1) posts a 70.55 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate for Dale Romans — a trainer who knows this track inside and out. The rail post in a six-furlong sprint can be a double-edged sword, but Gerardo Corrales is capable of saving ground and making one run. At 8/1 on the morning line, Find No Fault is a smart trifecta inclusion for anyone trying to build a high-upside ticket.

Race 5

6:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Fifteen runners make this one of the biggest maiden fields of the card, and with so many first-timers and horses without recorded speed figures, the jockey-trainer combinations and raw TrackWiz ratings become the primary handicapping tools.

win3Coach PopeML EVN

Coach Pope (#3) opens as the morning-line favorite at even money, and the 60.00 TrackWiz rating leads the field — not a dominant edge, but enough to warrant favoritism in a maiden full of unknowns. Jose Ortiz gets the mount for Kenneth McPeek, and that pairing alone is a confidence signal; McPeek doesn't put Ortiz on a horse he doesn't believe in. The 56 average speed figure is the highest recorded in this field, giving Coach Pope a measurable edge in raw ability. Even odds feels tight, but the connections here are best-in-field.

place14CybersteelML 4/1

Cybersteel (#14) is the TrackWiz second choice with a 55.00 rating and lands Flavien Prat for Brad Cox — a Hall of Fame trainer who consistently gets horses ready to run their best first time out. The 4/1 morning line provides real value for a horse with an average speed of 54 and a connections profile that screams serious intent. In a maiden of this size, Prat's tactical ability to find position and avoid traffic could be the difference.

show2OblivionML 5/1

Oblivion (#2) draws the Bob Baffert barn with Florent Geroux in the irons — two names that carry enormous weight in maiden company. The 53.33 TrackWiz rating and 54 average speed keep the horse firmly in the conversation, and at 5/1 on the morning line, the value is there for exotic plays. Baffert's operation routinely fires fresh horses into contention, and Geroux is an underrated trip jockey who can navigate a big field.

Race 6

7:21 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Bob Baffert sends out a one-two punch in this six-furlong stakes, and while the barn dominates the top of the morning line, a pair of live outsiders could complicate the exacta picture and create real exotic value.

win1UshaML 5/2

Usha (#1) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and opens as the 5/2 favorite with Flavien Prat — Baffert's go-to pilot — in the irons. The 33% career win rate is solid for stakes competition, and the 55 average speed figure is consistent with a sprint performer who runs her race every time. In a six-furlong stakes, Prat's ability to get a clean trip from the rail is crucial, and there's no one better at managing position early.

place2Cash CallML 7/2

Cash Call (#2) is Baffert's second entry and profiles as the ideal place horse — 78.69 rating, 40% career win rate, and a 56 average speed that actually tops stablemate Usha. Florent Geroux takes the mount, and the 7/2 price suggests the market has split the Baffert barn evenly. A 40% career win rate in stakes company is genuinely elite, and Cash Call's slightly higher speed figure makes her a legitimate threat to beat her stablemate outright.

show7ModoML 3/1

Modo (#7) is the most interesting outsider in the race, posting a 60.27 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 46% career win rate — the best in the field among non-Baffert runners. Luis Saez takes the call for Kinnon LaRose, and the 3/1 morning line reflects real market respect for what Modo brings to the table. If the Baffert duo gets into a pace duel early, Modo could be sitting in a perfect spot to pounce late in the sprint.

Race 7

7:54 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Built enters this six-and-a-half furlong stakes as a heavy favorite and for good reason — the rating gap between him and the field is significant — but Harrodsburg and Cat On Time offer enough to make the exactas genuinely interesting.

win5BuiltML 6/5

Built (#5) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.71 and opens at 6/5 — the morning line says bet accordingly. Flavien Prat takes over for Wayne Catalano, and Built's 42% career win rate makes him one of the most consistent performers on today's card. The 56 average speed figure matches the field's best, and in a directional sprint where pace tends to favor the talented, there's no reason to overthink this one.

place1HarrodsburgML 3/1

Harrodsburg (#1) is the most credible challenger at 75.58 and a 38% career win rate — the second-best career winning percentage in the field behind only Cat On Time. Luis Saez handles the mount for Michael Tomlinson, and the 3/1 morning line feels right for a horse who can put up a fight against the favorite. The 56 average speed keeps Harrodsburg competitive on paper, and if Built has any issues from the gate, this horse is first to benefit.

show4Cat On TimeML 9/2

Cat On Time (#4) brings a 67.40 rating and a field-leading 42% career win rate, matching Built at the top of the percentage chart. Tyler Gaffalione is one of the best in the business and gets to ride the horse from a comfortable outside draw for trainer David Jacobson. The 57 average speed figure — best in the race — hints at raw ability, and at 9/2, Cat On Time is the right horse to anchor your show-position exotics if you're looking for upside.

Race 8

8:26 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile stakes with a clear top-rated contender who is being underestimated by the morning-line makers — Pierette's rating and career win percentage make her a strong play at a price that should tighten considerably by post.

win1PieretteML 9/2

Pierette (#1) is the TrackWiz top choice with an 84.90 rating and an exceptional 66% career win rate — that kind of strike rate at the stakes level is rare and tells you this filly runs to win, not just hit the board. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Mark Casse, a trainer with a stellar record with fillies at Churchill Downs. The 9/2 morning line is a gift given the rating edge and the win percentage; this figures to be a much shorter price at post. Back her with confidence.

place2Manuka HoneyML 9/5

Manuka Honey (#2) opens as the 9/5 favorite despite carrying a 58.67 TrackWiz rating — well below Pierette's. The 100% career win rate is an eye-popper, but that figure typically reflects a very small sample size and should be weighted accordingly. Luis Saez rides for Brian Lynch, and this horse is clearly well-regarded by connections, but the morning line may be overplaying recent form over raw ability metrics.

show7Miss AnnaML 7/2

Miss Anna (#7) posts a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate, representing a consistent mid-tier performer in this stakes field. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Brendan Walsh — a sharp barn with a history of firing live shots at Churchill — and the 55 average speed figure is exactly what you'd expect from a stakes-level competitor at this distance. At 7/2, Miss Anna is a logical exotics piece who should be on the board.

Race 9

8:58 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Splendora is as close to a lock as you'll find at the racetrack today — the 3/5 favorite has a 90.00 TrackWiz rating and 60% career win rate — but the real game here is identifying which horse can realistically fill the exacta.

win1SplendoraML 3/5

Splendora (#1) tops the TrackWiz ratings with a perfect 90.00 — the highest score on the entire card today. Flavien Prat rides for Bob Baffert, and with a 60% career win rate in stakes company, this filly has done her talking on the track repeatedly. The 3/5 morning line is short, but when the number says 90, you don't fight it — you find ways to use her in exotics and back her to win for the ticket insurance.

place4ImmersiveML 3/1

Immersive (#4) is the most dangerous rival with an 85.18 TrackWiz rating and a 66% career win rate — statistically, this horse wins more than she loses too. Luis Saez rides for Brad Cox, a trainer who has an extraordinary record in stakes races at Churchill Downs. The 3/1 price makes Immersive the most logical exacta partner with Splendora, and if the favorite hits any traffic in the stretch run, Immersive has the class to capitalize.

show2Simply JokingML 6/1

Simply Joking (#2) rounds out the ticket with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate — respectable numbers for a stakes-level filly stepping into a tough spot. Juan Hernandez rides for Michael McCarthy, a trainer who knows how to keep horses sharp and competitive through a campaign. The 6/1 morning line is the most attractive price among the top three, making Simply Joking an excellent trifecta saver.

Race 10

9:29 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A fascinating stakes finale where the morning-line favorite carries a 100% win rate and Baffert's barn support, but TrackWiz rates another horse significantly higher — classic sharp-vs-public scenario to end the card.

win8He Is No LieML 5/1

He Is No Lie (#8) is our TrackWiz top selection with a 77.00 rating — the highest in this field — despite opening at 5/1 on the morning line. Joel Rosario gets the assignment for Doug O'Neill, and a 33% career win rate at the stakes level is legitimately solid. The 55 average speed figure is right in line with the field's best performers, and the disconnect between his rating and his odds makes this the most compelling win bet on the late card. When the model loves a horse and the public doesn't, that's the sweet spot.

place7SalahudinML 8/5

Salahudin (#7) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 with Florent Geroux aboard for Bob Baffert, and a 100% career win rate demands respect regardless of sample size. The 59.00 TrackWiz rating trails He Is No Lie but still ranks second in the field, and with Baffert's conditioning edge and Geroux's tactical intelligence, Salahudin figures to be a factor throughout. He's the right horse to pair with He Is No Lie in the exacta.

show2Blessed FlyerML 9/2

Blessed Flyer (#2) brings a 54.17 TrackWiz rating and his own perfect career record for trainer Michael Tomlinson. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the most accomplished riders at Churchill Downs and knows exactly how to rate a horse over a mile on this track. The 9/2 price is appealing for a show ticket or trifecta position, and the 56 average speed — best recorded figure in the field — suggests there's more raw ability here than the rating alone indicates.

Race 11

10:01 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The final race of the card is a maiden sprint where one filly's TrackWiz rating is so dominant it borders on a mismatch — the question isn't who wins, it's who can sneak into the exacta behind her.

win2PoiseML 5/2

Poise (#2) owns an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest figure among all maiden runners on today's card and a number that simply doesn't belong in this field. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Steven Asmussen, a combination that fires at a high clip in maiden company and rarely shows up without a live horse. The 5/2 morning line is fair, but Poise's rating dominance suggests she could go off even shorter. In a 6.5-furlong sprint, her 55 average speed figure gives her every right to be the class of this race.

place3ShewontbudgeML 6/1

Shewontbudge (#3) checks in with a 61.03 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race — and a 54 average speed for trainer James Spicer. Walter Rodriguez gets the call, and while Shewontbudge doesn't have the star power of Poise, she has the consistency numbers to run a solid second in this spot. At 6/1 on the morning line, she's exactly the type of value play you want underneath a heavy favorite in the exacta.

show4Sweet RewardML 5/1

Sweet Reward (#4) posts a 57.98 TrackWiz rating and lands Luis Saez for the William Mott barn — a combination that should never be dismissed in maiden company. Mott is meticulous about placing horses in the right spots, and his maidens at Churchill routinely outrun their morning lines. The 5/1 price and 54 average speed make Sweet Reward a logical trifecta anchor, particularly if the pace gets messy and she's able to close from the back half of the field.

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Bottom line: Churchill Downs is dealing a deep, stakes-heavy Saturday card in the rain, and our top plays range from the 8/1 overlay Love Divine in Race 2 all the way up to the 90-rated Splendora in Race 9. Three races are free and ready to go right now — and subscribers have the full 11-race breakdown waiting for them. Head to TrackWiz Premium, get the complete picture, and let's cash some tickets in the rain.

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