Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 23, 2026

Saturday, May 23, 202611 racesChurchill Downs

Churchill Downs rolls out an 11-race Saturday card under cloudy skies and a comfortable 72°F — ideal racing weather with no heat stress on the horses and firm turf conditions that should play right into the hands of ground-loving grass runners.

Today's card is a nice mix of maiden specials, claiming races, and a turf stakes in Race 9 that serves as the marquee event of the afternoon. With three surfaces represented — dirt sprints, route dirt, and turf routes — there's something for every handicapper, whether you're grinding through exactas or hunting a big multi-race ticket.

TrackWiz analysis covers the full 11-race card. Races 1 through 3 are unlocked for everyone. Races 4 through 11 — including that Stakes showdown in Race 9 — are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden sprint at a mile on the dirt, and the morning line tells the story — two horses are drawing nearly all the action while the rest of the field feels like filler.

win2Plaza CueML 6/5

Plaza Cue tops our TrackWiz ratings at 89.71 and draws in at 6/5 on the morning line, which suggests the connections know exactly what they have. Luis Saez in the irons is never an accident in a race like this — he tends to find the right spot on the pace and let the horse do the work. The average speed figure of 52 is solid for a first-level maiden, and the Kenneth McPeek barn has a strong reputation for having two-turn debutants ready to run. With no career wins to dissect, you're betting the profile, and this one projects as the class of the field.

place1Sister JeanML 9/5

Sister Jean brings a rating of 74.74 and the second-best average speed figure in the field at 53 — matching Command the Stars and Lunar Loop but with Tyler Gaffalione in the tack, which is a meaningful upgrade. Going off at 9/5, she may end up the actual favorite at post time, and a top-two finish feels well within reach if Plaza Cue runs her race. The D. Whitworth Beckman barn is patient with maidens, so expect Sister Jean to be well-prepared for a route distance.

show3Lunar LoopML 5/2

Lunar Loop at 5/2 is the third choice and rates third on our model at 57.5, fitting the show spot cleanly. Trainer William Walden has her going long for the first time at this distance, and with an average speed figure of 53 she's not a throwout. Jaime Torres keeps the ride, and in a race where the top two are clearly better on paper, Lunar Loop figures to hang around for a piece of the exotic payout.

Race 2

5:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse claiming sprint with a clear pace scenario and a standout based on rating, but two horses are separated by less than five points at the top — this could be a real battle at the wire.

win6My Bossy LadyML 5/2

My Bossy Lady heads into this six-furlong claiming sprint with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and a 23% career win rate that speaks to consistent effort. Brad Cox is one of the elite trainers at Churchill Downs, and having Irad Ortiz Jr. up at 5/2 confirms this barn is going for it. Her average speed figure of 54 matches the best in the field, and in a pace scenario where several speed horses may duel early, a closer or stalker like this could hit the front at the right moment. This is a legitimate best bet for the race.

place1Q's Your MamaML 3/1

Q's Your Mama opens at 3/1 with a 23% career win rate and a rating of 82.58 — not far behind the top pick and worth including in exactas underneath. The post-one draw is a minor concern in a sprint, but Keith Asmussen has ridden this horse and knows her tendencies. At the morning line price, she represents solid value for the place spot and should be on your ticket.

show2First HillML 4/1

First Hill at 4/1 rates at 76.06 and posts a 17% career win percentage, which isn't flashy but is respectable for this level. Francisco Arrieta takes the call for the S. Jade Cunningham barn, and the average speed of 54 keeps First Hill in the mix with the field's best. She's the kind of honest claimer who hits the board more often than she wins — a natural show pick in a race with several live threats.

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile claiming affair features a legitimate pace question with speed on paper but a handful of closers lurking — the horse with the highest win rate in the field is going off at double-digit odds.

win2McSniperML 3/1

McSniper leads all horses in this field with a 33% career win rate — one in three starts, he hits the board for a win — and pairs that with the top TrackWiz rating of 83.39. Peter Miller ships in with Assael Espinoza, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market respects what this horse has done. His average speed figure of 54 matches Call Me Precious at the top, and over a mile he should have enough to sustain his effort. This is our top play in Race 3.

place6BartenderML 7/2

Bartender at 7/2 rates second on our model at 81.30 and brings a 20% career win rate to the table for the Eric Foster barn. Adam Beschizza has been consistent in the irons, and while the average speed figure of 51 is a tick below the leaders, Bartender's overall profile suggests he earns a check more often than not. Against this field, he's the natural backup if McSniper gets into trouble.

show4Speed SkaterML 10/1

Speed Skater is the value angle here at 10/1 morning line — don't let that price fool you. A 25% career win rate is the second-best in the field, and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is a major upgrade in the irons for the Jake Radosevich stable. The TrackWiz rating of 76.88 confirms there's more here than the odds suggest. In a race that may set up for closers, Speed Skater could be the horse that runs past tired rivals in the stretch — a smart inclusion in your trifecta.

The first three races give us a strong opening act. Plaza Cue draws the top TrackWiz rating on the card at 89.71 in Race 1, a maiden special weight going a flat mile on the dirt — that's the kind of number that commands attention, even at a short 6/5 morning line. In Race 2, My Bossy Lady (87.81 rating, 5/2 ML) figures prominently in a 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint where pace scenario is everything. And in Race 3, McSniper at 3/1 brings solid value in another mile dirt claiming affair — a horse worth building around in your early multi-race wagers.

The through-line across these three free races is the dirt. Today's cloudy conditions keep the surface honest — no drying out from direct sun, no unexpected speed or closers' bias developing. That consistency matters early in the card when you're trying to establish a read on how the main track is playing before you commit to bigger tickets in the premium races.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The claiming field going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt is headlined by a heavy short-price favorite, but there's a sneaky value play at 6/1 and a pace scenario that could shake things up in the stretch.

win4Bourbon FlightML 2/1

Bourbon Flight is the clear class of this field based on TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — a full 13 points clear of the next contender — and Irad Ortiz Jr. at 2/1 makes this as close to a banker as you'll see in a claiming race. Ian Wilkes trains this horse, and his barn tends to spot horses very deliberately at the claiming level. The average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the field, and the 14% career win rate in what looks like a relatively green campaign suggests upside still on the table. This is the Race 4 best bet.

place5Global QuoteML 6/1

Global Quote at 6/1 is an interesting lateral option with a TrackWiz rating of 75.07 — third in the field — and a 10% win rate that may undersell her talent given the connections. Abel Cedillo gets the mount for Carlos Santamaria, and the 6/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse rated this highly. If the pace scenario sets up favorably and Bourbon Flight has any issues, Global Quote is in prime position to grab second.

show6PacificML 9/2

Pacific goes off at 9/2 with a 12% career win rate and a rating of 67.91 for the Steven Asmussen barn, with Keith Asmussen in the saddle. It's a family affair, and Asmussen runners at Churchill are worth noting — the stable knows this track as well as anyone. An average speed of 53 keeps Pacific competitive, and at a price that should hold near the morning line, this horse fills out the show slot nicely in exactas and trifectas.

Race 5

6:47 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of sixteen goes to the turf in this one-mile allowance — the largest field on the card today — and the pace is going to be chaotic with this many runners, setting up perfectly for a late-running closer.

win8AmberglenML 9/2

Amberglen draws the eight hole with a 79.19 TrackWiz rating and 33% career win rate, and Brad Cox putting Irad Ortiz Jr. up at 9/2 is the loudest trainer-jockey signal on the board. Cox and Ortiz are one of the most productive pairings in American racing right now, and on a big turf field at Churchill, they tend to find the right trip off the pace. The average speed figure of 54 is competitive with the best in this field, and a 33% win rate in allowance company is a genuine résumé. This is our Race 5 best bet.

place5Miss PharaohML 6/1

Miss Pharaoh at 6/1 rates second on our model at 77.79 and brings a 9% career win rate that looks low until you factor in the level she's been running. Mario Gutierrez takes the mount for Matthew Sims, and the 6/1 price on a horse with this rating is worth attacking in exactas. She may need a target to aim at, but in a full field on the turf, she should find traffic-free running in the stretch.

show3La CanteraML 8/1

La Cantera is our show pick at 8/1, and with a 23% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 73.89, the price is genuinely appealing. Luis Saez rides for Carlos David — a barn that places horses smartly in allowance conditions — and the average speed figure of 55 is the highest on the card in this race. That last number is worth noting: raw speed matters on a one-turn turf mile, and La Cantera may be faster than her rating suggests. A natural trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

7:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight for two-turn dirt runners, and the morning line favorite is being bet against in our model — the 3/1 shot rates first and represents the upset angle the sharp money may already be on.

win4Our ForefathersML 3/1

Our Forefathers is the TrackWiz top choice in Race 6 at a rating of 66.50, going off at 3/1 with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the call for Peter Eurton. Eurton is a California-based trainer who doesn't ship horses to Churchill Downs just to finish second — when he makes the trip, the horse is ready. Ortiz on a 3/1 shot in a maiden race is the kind of thing that pays off more often than the crowd realizes. This is our win pick despite the modest rating gap over the field.

place1Market RunnerML 7/5

Market Runner is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and rates second in our model at 59.89, with Jose Ortiz in the irons for Kinnon LaRose. The gap between this horse and Our Forefathers in our ratings is narrow — less than seven points — and Market Runner is clearly legitimate. If the favorite does its job, it'll be in the exacta; if Our Forefathers gets loose on the lead, Market Runner should fill the place spot.

show3National CharterML 4/1

National Charter at 4/1 brings a TrackWiz rating of 55.00 and the best average speed figure in the field at 55. Luis Saez rides for George Arnold II, and while the 4/1 price doesn't scream value, the speed figure edge is real. In maiden routes where raw ability can be the determining factor, a horse posting the top speed number is never a throwout in exactas and trifectas.

Race 7

7:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Eleven horses fill this maiden claiming sprint, and with a short-priced favorite drawing strong trainer support, the real betting interest is in finding the overlays underneath — including a double-digit shot our model thinks can run.

win6ExodusML 2/1

Exodus draws 2/1 on the morning line with Irad Ortiz Jr. for the Brad Cox barn — and that combination alone makes this horse worth following regardless of the price. Cox and Ortiz in a maiden claiming sprint means the horse is primed and pointed, and an average speed figure of 55 is among the best in this field. The TrackWiz rating of 58.33 leads the field by a razor-thin margin, but the jockey-trainer edge is the bigger story here. Best bet in Race 7.

place11PropsML 12/1

Props at 12/1 is our place pick and represents a genuine overlay. The Keith Asmussen — Steven Asmussen connection mirrors the family dynamic we noted in Race 4, and Props carries a rating of 56.94 — just a point and a half behind the top pick. An average speed of 53 is modest, but in a wide-open maiden claiming sprint, consistency and a smart tactical ride can put a horse in the exacta at a price the crowd isn't giving it.

show9Grab the SparkML 7/2

Grab the Spark at 7/2 has the second-best average speed figure in the field at 55 and a TrackWiz rating of 55.83, sitting just below Exodus and Props in our model. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Linda Rice, a barn that excels at prepping maiden runners for competitive efforts. At morning line odds that seem fair, Grab the Spark belongs in your trifecta combos as a horse that should at minimum finish in the money.

Race 8

8:25 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance going six and a half furlongs on dirt features a speed-heavy field, but our model has identified a horse at 8/1 who may be the fastest in the race — and the public seems to be sleeping on it.

win9Show TimeML 8/1

Show Time checks in at 8/1 on the morning line but leads all horses in this field with an average speed figure of 56 — tied with Star's Image, Get Her Number, Pinfire, and Otto the Conqueror, but Show Time's TrackWiz rating of 79.79 is the highest in the field. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Joe Sharp, and a 28% career win rate confirms this horse knows how to finish first. In a starter allowance where pace can collapse, a horse with elite speed numbers and a top-shelf jockey at double-digit odds is exactly the kind of play TrackWiz is built to find.

place10Get Her NumberML 5/2

Get Her Number opens at 5/2 as the public choice and backs it up with a 28% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56. Cristian Torres rides for Robertino Diodoro, and the 77.90 rating is the second-highest in the field — just a sliver below Show Time. If there's any question about the win spot, Get Her Number almost certainly lands second and is the safest exacta underneath in the race.

show4Star's ImageML 6/1

Star's Image at 6/1 rates third in our model at 74.32 with an average speed figure of 56 and a 30% career win rate — one of the best win percentages in the field. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for Joe Sharp, the same barn as Show Time, so Sharp has two horses in the race and may be sending signals about which he trusts more. Either way, Star's Image at 6/1 with these numbers is a legitimate show play and should be covered in trifectas.

Race 9

8:56 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

A turf stakes going a marathon mile and a half — this distance is a true test of stamina and class, and the field is tight at the top with three horses separated by less than five points in our ratings.

win1SultanaML 3/1

Sultana tops the field not just in our TrackWiz rating at 86.04, but with an eye-opening 66% career win rate — two out of every three starts, this horse has won. Kevin Attard ships her in and Junior Alvarado takes the mount at 3/1, and the combination of elite winning percentage and a rating that's near the top of the field is impossible to ignore in a stakes race. Going long on the turf typically rewards horses with a proven record of closing out races, and Sultana's win rate says she does exactly that. This is our Race 9 best bet.

place4Golden SunshineML 4/1

Golden Sunshine at 4/1 rates 85.62 — just 0.42 points behind Sultana — and while the 18% career win rate is modest, Eoin Harty tends to have his horses peaked for stakes spots at Churchill. Jaime Torres gets the call, and at a price that still offers value, Golden Sunshine belongs in the exacta with Sultana. In a mile and a half turf stakes, pace scenarios can shift dramatically, and a horse this close to the top of the ratings is hard to leave off the ticket.

show3Ayra StarkML 9/5

Ayra Stark opens at 9/5 as the public favorite and rates third in our model at 81.91 with a 25% career win rate and Jose Ortiz up for Horacio De Paz. The crowd clearly likes this horse, and they may be right — but our model puts two horses ahead of her, which is why she slides to the show spot here. In a stakes at a mile and a half, pace and trip can be everything, and Ayra Stark's experience and connections give her every chance to land in the top three.

Race 10

9:28 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile starter allowance on dirt has a clear top choice that the market agrees with, but underneath there's legitimate depth — including a horse at 8/1 our model rates higher than several of the more obvious contenders.

win2GethsemaneML 7/5

Gethsemane is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and backs it up with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.97. Jose Ortiz rides for Linda Rice, who comes to Churchill with a horse that has a 16% career win rate — modest on its face, but in a starter allowance field this quality, that record carries context. Average speed of 53 keeps pace with the best in the race, and the combination of top rating plus a Hall of Fame-caliber jockey makes this the most structured best bet on the back half of the card.

place6Kid TwistML 8/1

Kid Twist at 8/1 is where the value lives in Race 10. A TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second in the field — paired with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. in the irons suggests the Chris Hartman barn believes they have a live runner. The 14% career win rate is honest for a horse at this level, and an average speed of 54 is the best in the field. Eight-to-one for a horse that rates this well is a clear overlay — hit the exacta underneath Gethsemane.

show7C McGriffML 6/1

C McGriff at 6/1 rates 73.92 with a 25% career win rate and Tyler Gaffalione up for Robert Medina. The 25% win rate is the second-best in the field and a genuinely impressive number for any horse, let alone one going off at 6/1. Average speed of 53 keeps C McGriff right in the mix, and Gaffalione has been sharp at Churchill this meet. A trifecta piece at this price is a no-brainer.

Race 11

9:59 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The nightcap is a 14-horse starter allowance on the turf going a mile and a sixteenth — a full field on the grass always creates chaos, and our top pick here at 7/2 is a substantial favorite on the TrackWiz model.

win2HeartbeatML 7/2

Heartbeat leads the Race 11 field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and Luis Saez up for the Brian Lynch barn at 7/2 — this is a well-connected horse in a field where the ratings drop off sharply after the top three. A 20% career win rate is solid for a turf route, and an average speed figure of 54 matches Ocean Ripple for the best among our top picks. Lynch does excellent work with turf runners at Churchill, and Heartbeat looks primed to wire or stalk this field all the way to the wire. Our best bet to close the card.

place8McKinzie's GloryML 8/1

McKinzie's Glory at 8/1 is a genuine value proposition at the place spot — a rating of 70.65 with Emmanuel Esquivel up for Sarah Shaffer, who quietly runs competitive horses at this level. The 7% career win rate is low, but in a starter allowance on turf with 14 runners, a horse capable of earning a check has inherent value. The average speed of 53 is respectable, and at 8/1 morning line, the place price could be quite generous on the toteboard.

show13Ocean RippleML 5/1

Ocean Ripple at 5/1 rates 69.89 with Jose Ortiz for David Jacobson — that's the best jockey-trainer pairing among the secondary horses in this field. A 14% career win rate and the top average speed figure in our picks at 55 gives Ocean Ripple an edge on pure pace numbers. Jacobson knows how to place horses in starter spots, and Ortiz will have this one in the right position turning for home. A natural trifecta piece at a fair price.

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Bottom line for today at Churchill Downs: Plaza Cue is the headline free play with the strongest rating on the card, McSniper offers real value in the early claiming route, and Sultana is the horse to beat in the afternoon's marquee turf stakes. It's a deep, genuinely interesting 11-race card that rewards careful handicapping.

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