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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — September 4, 2026

September 4, 20267 racesAll Century Mile picks

It's a crisp Friday afternoon at Century Mile, with partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 66°F keeping conditions about as clean as you'll get on the Alberta oval. Seven races are on the board today — all on the main dirt track — and the variety is solid, ranging from maiden special weights to allowance company, with a handful of claiming events mixed in to keep things lively.

The pace scenarios look interesting across the card. You've got a sprint-heavy lineup in the early races before things stretch out in Race 5 and Race 7, where route distance and class questions will separate the sharp money from the noise. Our TrackWiz models have been busy overnight, and there are a few spots where the morning line looks a little generous — including one horse we're very happy to have on the free side of the wall.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line has two co-favorites splitting attention in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but our TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story — the real value is sitting at 8-1.

win5Concrete CowboyML 8/1

Concrete Cowboy lands at the top of our ratings with an 79.79 score despite being posted at 8/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of overlay that gets handicappers excited. Trainer Tim Rycroft puts him in a winnable spot here, and with a 21% career win rate, this horse knows how to hit the board. If the pace up front gets contested between the lower-rated horses, Concrete Cowboy could be sitting pretty turning for home. This is our top value play of the race.

place6MendeljohnML 5/2

Mendeljohn rates nearly identically to our win pick (79.26) and comes in with a solid 25% career win rate — this horse is dangerous even if he doesn't hit the front. Jockey Kimal Santo gets the call from trainer Robertino Diodoro, a combo worth tracking. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's less overlay here, but he's a legitimate contender for the exacta.

show4Stone CarverML 3/2

Stone Carver is the morning line favorite at 3/2, backed by a 27% career win rate — the best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 62.72. He makes plenty of sense as a show anchor in exotics, even if our ratings have him a step below the top two. Trainer Rodney J. Cone has a capable runner here; just make sure you're not paying chalk prices in win pools.

Race 2

12:45 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight at 7 furlongs where none of these horses have broken their maiden yet — which means our ratings and pace projections do the heavy lifting in separating contenders.

win2Riptide BeautyML 9/2

Riptide Beauty tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 in this maiden field and draws a live rider in Antonio Ambrosio Reyes. At 9/2 on the morning line, she's priced as a mid-range contender but our numbers say she's the most likely winner in the field. Trainer Kevin N. Scott puts her at 7 furlongs on dirt, and the rating edge over the rest of the field is meaningful — especially against a horse like the morning line favorite Dr Broker, who actually rates out third in our model.

place1So SorryML 6/1

So Sorry at 6/1 rates second in the entire field at 81.37, which is a significant gap above the morning line favorite's 80.20. Trainer Craig Robert Smith has a horse ready to run, and jockey Richard Balgobin gives her a competent hand. If Riptide Beauty meets any trouble, So Sorry is knocking right on the door — great place ticket value.

show7Dr BrokerML 8/5

Dr Broker is the 8/5 morning line chalk, so the public clearly loves him — and he does rate out solidly at 80.20. Trainer Tim Rycroft and jockey Jose Mariano Asencio is a sharp pairing, and he's not without a winning chance. We just like him third in our model on ratings, making him a sensible show anchor without paying the favorite price on top.

Race 3

1:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Now and Zen is a class standout in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, but the real intrigue is whether a pair of lightly-regarded longshots can combine for a big-priced exacta underneath.

win3Now and ZenML 7/5

Now and Zen has a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — the highest in today's entire card through the first three races — and goes postward at just 7/5. Trainer Jason Coney and jockey Jose Mariano Asencio is a formidable pairing, and the rating gap between Now and Zen and the second-best horse in this field is enormous. A 10% career win rate might raise eyebrows, but the class and figure edge suggest this horse has been mixing in tougher company. Expect him to be on or near the lead and tough to catch.

place8Alberta BerbonML 8/1

Alberta Berbon at 8/1 is our most intriguing price play in the race, rating out second in the field at 65.86 despite being largely overlooked by the morning line. Trainer Jerri R. Robertson has her set up well here, and jockey Richard Balgobin is a capable hand at Century Mile. With only a 4% career win rate she's a horse who boards without always finishing first — perfect place-bet profile.

show6MemorecowboythanuML 8/1

Memorecowboythanu brings the best career win percentage in the field at 25% and a solid rating of 64.26 — almost identical to Alberta Berbon — at the same 8/1 morning line price. Trainer Makayla Edwards has two horses in this race, and this one gets the call from Brian Boodramsingh. Use both longshots underneath Now and Zen in your exactas and trifectas for a shot at a nice price.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of today's card, and our analysis points to some real opportunities early. Race 1 opens with a 6-furlong claiming sprint where Concrete Cowboy rolls in at 8/1 on the morning line — that kind of number on a horse our model rates at 79.79 is exactly the type of overlay you want to start a card with. In Race 2, the maiden special weight at 7 furlongs brings out Riptide Beauty at 9/2, and maiden races on a cool, sealed-up dirt surface can be tricky reads — our rating of 84.90 makes her the standout in what figures to be a wide-open field.

Race 3 is where the free card really heats up. Now and Zen comes in as the 7/5 morning-line favorite at 7 furlongs — a short price, sure, but a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 backs up the confidence. When the model and the public agree this strongly, it's worth paying attention. The cool temperatures today should keep the surface consistent through the afternoon, and that consistency favors horses with reliable, back-to-back speed figures — which connects nicely across all three of our free top picks.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:45 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Princess Fave enters as the top-rated horse and co-morning-line favorite, but a pair of double-digit longshots rated well above their odds make this a race worth attacking in exotics.

win6Princess FaveML 9/5

Princess Fave tops this nine-horse field with an 82.33 TrackWiz rating and carries the highest average speed figure in the race at 55. Trainer Robertino Diodoro puts her with Rico W. Walcott, and her 18% career win rate is respectable in a competitive claiming field. At 9/5 on the morning line, she's not a value play, but the class and figure advantage are real — she's the horse to beat.

place1Stay RisqueML 10/1

Stay Risque at 10/1 is a legitimate price play, rating out second in the field at 76.88 despite being buried on the morning line. A 16% career win rate shows this horse can win, and trainer Marvin Buffalo puts jockey Kyle Carter in the irons. If Princess Fave draws extra pressure on the front end, Stay Risque is the type who could be sitting in a perfect stalking spot late.

show8SenecaitML 8/1

Senecait is the most eye-catching horse in the field with a 33% career win rate — highest by a wide margin — and a TrackWiz rating of 76.75 that makes her a factor at 8/1. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides for trainer Robert Van Overschot, and that win percentage suggests she converts at a premium clip when conditions are right. A terrific show anchor and worth including in trifectas.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in a Starter Optional Claiming event, this race sets up as a battle between two closely-rated top contenders — with a sneaky longshot lurking at a big number.

win4American FarmerML 9/2

American Farmer tops the TrackWiz ratings at 81.84 and goes off at a fair 9/2 on the morning line — not a fat overlay, but good value for a horse with a legitimate edge. Trainer Craig Robert Smith sends him with Richard Balgobin, and a 16% career win rate at this level is workmanlike. The longer trip at 1 1/16 miles on dirt suits a horse with this kind of sustained rating profile, and he should be a factor deep into the stretch.

place9Smart LadML 5/2

Smart Lad is the morning line second choice at 5/2 and rates right behind the top pick at 80.82 — this race is genuinely close at the top. Trainer Barbara Heads has him ready with Amadeo Perez up, and his 18% career win rate is among the better marks in the field. In a pace scenario where things get hot up front, Smart Lad has the profile of a horse who arrives late and gets a piece.

show6Barberry BanditML 12/1

Barberry Bandit at 12/1 is a legitimate price play for show tickets and trifecta construction, rating third in the field at 73.96. Trainer Pat Jarvis has him with Kimal Santo, and while an 8% career win rate isn't flashy, the ratings say he belongs in this conversation. At a mile-plus, races can come back to horses with tactical speed — and Barberry Bandit has enough figure to sneak into the exotics at a nice number.

Race 6

2:45 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 6 furlongs where the morning line co-favorite actually trails several runners in our ratings — and the real standout is hiding in plain sight at 5/2.

win9Appreciate TodayML 5/2

Appreciate Today owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field by a significant margin at 87.81, and a 28% career win rate tells you this horse closes out races. Trainer Barbara Heads hands the reins to Amadeo Perez, and at 5/2 on the morning line, you're getting reasonable value on the most dominant figure in the race. In a 6-furlong dirt sprint where pace can be unforgiving, a horse with this kind of class edge and win percentage is tough to oppose.

place3Pioneer Storm KingML 2/1

Pioneer Storm King is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and rates second in the field at 62.69 — a real gap behind Appreciate Today but well clear of the rest. Trainer Tim Rycroft puts Jose Mariano Asencio in the irons, a quality pairing. He's a sensible place play, though the odds may compress further; consider using him as a place backup rather than a win bet given how our ratings stack up.

show5Who IsML 10/1

Who Is at 10/1 is undervalued on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 58.68 and a sparkling 23% career win rate — third-highest in the field. Trainer Makayla Edwards has him set up for a solid performance, and Kimal Santo knows how to navigate a 6-furlong dirt sprint. At double-digit odds, he's a strong show play and worth including in trifectas underneath the top two.

Race 7

3:15 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Lord of Battle walks in as a deserving chalk in this 10-horse allowance going a mile and 70 yards, but the pace scenario at this distance creates real opportunity for a couple of longer-priced horses to hit the board.

win7Lord of BattleML 6/5

Lord of Battle has the most impressive profile on the card today — a 50% career win rate, the top average speed figure in the field at 56, and a TrackWiz rating of 81.95. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson puts Anastasios Chalaris in the irons, and at 6/5, the public has clearly done their homework here. At a route distance where class and sustained speed matter most, this horse's numbers are simply a cut above the rest of the field.

place2Bold ArchML 5/2

Bold Arch is one of the most fascinating horses on today's card with a staggering 47% career win rate — nearly matching Lord of Battle's elite figure — and a solid TrackWiz rating of 75.40. Trainer Geovani Olalde sends him with Amadeo Perez at 5/2 on the morning line, and that win percentage demands respect. If Lord of Battle gets outrun for any reason, Bold Arch is right there to collect.

show5You'reinthearmynowML 12/1

You'reinthearmynow at 12/1 is our longshot show play here, rating third in the field at 73.96 with an 18% career win rate. Trainer Robert Van Overschot gives the mount to Antonio Ambrosio Reyes, and in a two-turn route, pace can cause all kinds of chaos that benefits a horse sitting off the pace. He's a live show ticket at a generous price for trifecta players looking to stretch the payout.

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Seven races, cool conditions, and a few spots where the morning line hasn't quite caught up to our models — today's Century Mile card is worth your attention from the jump. Concrete Cowboy, Riptide Beauty, and Now and Zen headline the free side, while the premium card digs into the pace dynamics and exotic angles that can really move the needle. Unlock the full breakdown at TrackWiz Premium and make sure you're armed before the gates open. Good luck out there.

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