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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — September 5, 2026

September 5, 20267 racesAll Century Mile picks

We're back at Century Mile for a Saturday card that kicks off under cloudy skies and a crisp 58°F — the kind of cool, overcast afternoon that tends to keep the dirt playing honest and speed figures translating cleanly. Seven races are on the board, spanning everything from a stakes quarter-horse sprint to a pair of seven-furlong claiming battles, so there's plenty to dig into regardless of your bankroll size.

The opener sets the tone right away — a 350-yard stakes dash where Miss Fancy Nancy draws the morning-line favoritism in what figures to be a blink-and-you'll-miss-it affair. From there the card shifts to mainstream thoroughbred action, mixing allowance optional claiming competition, starter optionals, and a stack of claiming races that give grinders multiple angles to exploit. Seven races, three of them free for every TrackWiz reader, four locked behind our premium tier.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard dirt stakes sprint is a short, sharp affair where raw speed and class separate quickly — three horses have legitimate top-three claims, making the exotics the real play here.

win5Miss Fancy NancyML 5/2

Miss Fancy Nancy posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and carries a 34% career win rate into this spot — strong numbers for a sprint stakes field. Jockey Daniel Tavares gets the call, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees she's the one to beat. At 350 yards, there's no time to make up ground; she needs to break sharp and she looks like the horse capable of doing exactly that. The class and consistency profile here is the best in the field.

place4Flash Me a CoronaML 7/2

Flash Me a Corona is the horse to respect most if the top pick stumbles, boasting a 42% career win rate — the highest win percentage in the field by a comfortable margin. Ricardo Moreno rides, and that kind of win rate tells you this horse is rarely out of the money. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's fair value if you need a safety net in your exotics.

show2Team Rip 109ML 9/2

Team Rip 109 carries a 75.21 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate under trainer Buckey A. Stockwell, making him a legitimate player for the show slot in a race this short. At 9/2, he offers a touch of value as the third wheel in a tri or exacta box. Jockey O. Amador Hernandez gets the mount, and this horse's profile says he'll be in the mix at the wire.

Race 2

11:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A five-horse Allowance Optional Claiming field at six furlongs where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top two, but the pace scenario between multiple speed horses could shake things up.

win3Bar Down ExpressML 5/2

Bar Down Express tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws the 5/2 morning line in what shapes up as the most talented horse in the field on paper. Trainer Tim Rycroft puts Jose Mariano Asencio in the irons, and with an average speed figure of 55 — tied for tops in the race — the talent is there for a dominant effort. The 13% career win rate might give pause, but that rating gap over the field is hard to ignore in a spot like this. Our analysis says he's the most likely winner.

place4King ElvisML 7/5

King Elvis is the public's choice at 7/5 on the morning line, and it's not hard to see why — a 78.79 rating and a 55 average speed figure match the top horses stride for stride on the numbers. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson is a name we'll see throughout this card, which speaks to his stable's depth. If Bar Down Express has any trouble at all, King Elvis is positioned to pounce.

show5Mr. WhoML 9/2

Mr. Who gives trainer Gonzalo Anderson a second horse in the race, which creates an interesting dynamic — the barn is clearly live with two entries. A 51.15 rating and a 22% career win rate aren't flashy, but at 9/2 he represents the kind of all-conditions safety valve you want in your trifecta. Jockey Kimal Santo is a capable hand, and the 54 average speed figure is respectable in this company.

Race 3

12:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The mile-and-seventy-yard dirt route is the day's most wide-open claiming affair — the morning-line favorite sits at 8/5 but our ratings tell a very different story about who the real contender is.

win2Jump the QueueML 4/1

Jump the Queue owns an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the best in this seven-horse field by a clear margin — and a 22% career win rate that's entirely respectable for a claiming route runner. Trainer Tom Rycroft hands the mount to Brian Boodramsingh, a jockey who knows how to rate a horse over a route. The 4/1 morning line actually represents solid value given how far ahead the rating is of the competition. This horse is our top selection in a field where the public money appears misdirected.

place4Curlin RocksML 8/5

Curlin Rocks draws the 8/5 favorite tab from the public, powered by a 27% career win rate that's the best in the field on that metric. Trainer James R. Brown has this one ready, and the 65.29 rating isn't bad — but it's a meaningful step below Jump the Queue. The place slot feels right: he's likely to run his race and hit the board, but we're not convinced he's a winner at this class level today.

show7Snap CountML 5/1

Snap Count at 5/1 is a sneaky show-ticket inclusion — a 60.33 TrackWiz rating and Dane Nelson in the saddle give this one more upside than the odds suggest. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson places horses well throughout this card, and a 53 average speed figure is right in line with the competitive range for this distance. At 5/1, the show return is worth including in your trifectas.

Our three free races today cover a nice spread of conditions and distances — the stakes opener, Race 2's allowance optional claiming sprint, and the longer 1-mile-70-yard claiming test in Race 3. Miss Fancy Nancy (5/2 morning line, 87.81 TrackWiz rating) kicks things off in the kind of short-field speed contest where gate sharpness is everything. Bar Down Express matches that 87.81 rating in Race 2 over six furlongs of dirt, a spot where pace scenario and early position could be decisive on this cool, potentially speed-favoring surface. Jump the Queue steps into the longest of the three free races at a price — that 4/1 morning line on a dirt route is worth a close look for players who like their value with a little distance under their feet.

The common thread across these three? All three top picks carry TrackWiz ratings in the mid-to-upper 80s and are positioned at fair-to-generous morning-line prices. None of them are chalk locks, which is exactly the kind of card where doing your homework pays off. Dive into each race's full free preview in the race cards below.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:45 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The Starter Optional Claiming sprint at five-and-a-half furlongs features a standout on paper, but a wide-open mid-pack creates an intriguing supporting cast — value players, take note.

win6AnothersunnydayML 7/5

Anothersunnyday is the class of this field, posting an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — top marks on the card for this race — along with a 26% career win rate and the field's best average speed figure at 55. Jockey Rico W. Walcott gets the call for trainer Gonzalo Anderson, and the 7/5 morning line reflects the public's confidence. At five-and-a-half furlongs, a horse with that kind of foot speed and a sharp rider should be controlling terms. The case for a win here is straightforward.

place1Kitten KandyML 3/1

Kitten Kandy sits at 3/1 with a 77.28 rating and a 16% career win rate, but what draws us to the place slot is the trainer-jockey dynamic: Antonio Ambrosio Reyes gets the mount for trainer Geovani Olalde, and this pair looks to have a horse in form. A 53 average speed figure is workmanlike for this level, and she figures to be close enough at the top of the stretch to grab a piece. Good play in the exacta underneath the favorite.

show4FastestgirlintownML 6/1

Fastestgirlintown posts a 74.24 rating and has Richard Balgobin aboard for trainer Gonzalo Anderson — that's the same barn as the morning-line favorite, which tells you the connections know how to place horses in spots where they can fire. An average speed of 54 gives her the foot to keep up with the pace, and at 6/1 she's a fair show price in a seven-horse field. Include her in your trifecta bottom.

Race 5

1:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Nine horses go to the gate in this six-furlong dirt claimer, and two of them are separated from the rest of the field by a wide ratings gap — this shapes up as a two-horse battle with the rest fighting for the show.

win5Just ScarlettML 5/2

Just Scarlett sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws the 5/2 morning line — a fair price for a horse who appears to be the class of this nine-horse claiming field. Trainer Erick Gutierrez sends out Amadeo Perez, and a 23% career win rate in claiming company tells you this filly knows how to finish. Six furlongs on dirt is a trip that should play right to her strengths, and our analysis has her as the most complete package in here today.

place1FebruaryML 2/1

February is the horse giving us the most anxiety about Just Scarlett's win chances — an 86.97 rating that's nearly identical to the top pick, a 54 average speed figure, and a 2/1 morning line that screams public confidence. Trainer Dino K. Condilenios and jockey Kimal Santo hook up with a horse carrying a legitimate shot at the win, but the slightly lower rating tips us to the place position. Respect her in all multi-race wagers.

show9Light Fast FeetML 6/1

Light Fast Feet gives this trifecta a live third wheel at 6/1 — a 63.51 rating and Dane Nelson in the irons make this one worth a hard look for the bottom of your tickets. A 16% career win rate is modest, but trainer Ron Grieves places this one in a spot where the 54 average speed figure is competitive with the field. In a wide-open nine-horse bottom half, 6/1 on the show is the kind of overlay that builds bankrolls over time.

Race 6

2:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming field at seven furlongs where one horse is doing its own thing ratings-wise — the question is whether the pace scenario allows the favorite to wire them, or whether the closers get a big setup.

win1All RunML 2/1

All Run carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — comfortably the best number in this nine-horse field — and draws the 2/1 morning line for trainer Deanne Davies with Amadeo Perez up. A 10% career win rate might seem modest, but the rating gap here is substantial enough that we're not fading that number. At seven furlongs on dirt with a 54 average speed figure, All Run has the foot to dictate terms or sit just off the pace and pounce. This is a horse the market and our model agree on.

place6Quinto SolML 6/1

Quinto Sol is the horse we want underneath at 6/1 — a 78.05 rating and 25% career win rate for trainer Gonzalo Anderson make this one a legitimately dangerous mid-priced contender. Dane Nelson takes the mount, and at seven furlongs the pace scenario could set up perfectly for a horse who can close into tired rivals. The odds-to-rating discrepancy here offers real value in the exacta.

show7Late Night LivingML 5/2

Late Night Living draws the 5/2 morning line — the second choice — but our 65.05 rating lands this one squarely in show territory rather than win contention. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides for trainer Robert Van Overschot, and a 54 average speed figure says the talent is there to be involved. At 5/2, the show price won't be exciting, but Late Night Living makes for a logical trifecta anchor in a race where the top two have real separation.

Race 7

2:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Ten runners go seven furlongs in the closer, and it's one of the tighter races to handicap — two horses are nearly deadlocked at the top of the ratings, with the rest of the field well behind, setting up a fascinating finish.

win9Last HarborML 9/2

Last Harbor comes in with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this ten-horse field by a razor-thin margin — and represents genuine value at 9/2 on the morning line. Trainer Tim Rycroft sends Jose Mariano Asencio out on a horse with a 22% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure that's right in the zone for this distance. The slightly longer odds relative to the rating make this one more appealing than a typical win pick — you're getting a ratings leader at a mid-range price, which is where profit lives in claiming races.

place10Zip It WritML 5/2

Zip It Writ at 5/2 is nearly the equal of Last Harbor on the numbers — an 84.74 rating makes this a genuine photo-finish match between the top two horses — and trainer Karline Kingston puts Kimal Santo in the saddle. A 12% career win rate is a bit thin on the surface, but with a 52 average speed figure and that elite rating, the place slot feels like a safe landing spot if Last Harbor gets the better of the battle up front.

show2Kikis Love of LifeML 7/2

Kikis Love of Life rounds out the top three with a 79.71 rating and a 7/2 morning line that reflects her legitimate mid-race role. Trainer Robert Van Overschot hands the reins to Amadeo Perez, who has been busy throughout this card. A 12% career win rate mirrors Zip It Writ's, but at seven furlongs there's room for a closer to find a seam, and Kikis Love of Life has the rating to be that horse. She's the logical third in your trifecta.

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Seven races, cool conditions, and a stakes sprint right out of the gate — Century Mile is serving up a solid Saturday card. Miss Fancy Nancy, Bar Down Express, and Jump the Queue headline the free picks, and they're all worth a serious look. If you want the complete picture — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and our take on Anothersunnyday and Last Harbor — the full premium breakdown is waiting for you. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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