Daily Picks

Century Mile Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

Saturday, July 11, 20269 racesCentury Mile

It's a beautiful Saturday at Century Mile — clear skies, 71°F, and a firm dirt track that should play fair all afternoon. Nine races are on the slate today, ranging from maiden claimers to a pair of stakes events, giving bettors of every stripe plenty to work with.

The headliner is Race 2, where the heavily favored Big Hug ships in at 2/5 on the morning line for a 1 1/8-mile stakes test on the main track. At those odds you're not exactly getting rich backing the favorite, but the supporting cast across this card — including a potential longshot angle in Race 5 and a pair of interesting pace setups in the sprint races — keeps things lively from gate to wire.

TrackWiz has you covered with analysis on all nine races. Three races are free for everyone, and our full premium breakdown unlocks the remaining six — including both stakes races and the spots where we think the real value is hiding today.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear top-rated standout rules this 6-furlong allowance opener, but there's legitimate value hiding underneath the chalk at generous morning-line prices.

win5Ladyace of SpeightML 7/5

Ladyace of Speight is the class of this field by a wide margin — her TrackWiz rating of 89.42 towers over the next closest rival, Kitten Kandy at 70.22. Sent off at 7/5 on the morning line, the odds accurately reflect her edge, and trainer Ron Grieves has a live one here at a sprint distance that suits. With a 14% career win rate across what figures to be a competitive career, she's consistently shown up, and nothing in this field has the profile to give her serious trouble if she breaks cleanly.

place1Kitten KandyML 6/1

Kitten Kandy lands the place spot as the second-best rated horse in the field at 70.22, despite a generous 6/1 morning line that screams value in the exotics. Her 11% career win rate is modest, but at this price she's a strong inclusion in exactas underneath the favorite. Jockey Alexander Marti gets the call and should keep her in a comfortable spot in a race that doesn't look particularly pace-heated.

show2Nasas PrincessML 5/1

Nasas Princess checks in with the third-highest rating in the field at 59.78, making her a logical exotics anchor for the show slot. Sharing trainer Ron Grieves with the top pick creates an interesting barn angle — Grieves clearly has the key horses in this race. At 5/1 on the morning line, she offers solid value for trifecta construction.

Race 2

11:28 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A lopsided stakes field where one horse is in a class of his own — the real question is who picks up the pieces behind him.

win3Big HugML 2/5

Big Hug is as dominant a top pick as you'll find on any card — a 90.00 TrackWiz rating, a jaw-dropping 51% career win rate, and a 2/5 morning line that tells you the market agrees completely. Trainer Rick Hedge sends out a horse that wins more often than not at every level, and jockey Rafael Zenteno Jr. should have no trouble managing the pace at a mile and an eighth on dirt. Barring a significant equipment issue or traffic trouble, this looks like a boat race.

place1Viva La DivaML 2/1

Viva La Diva is the clear logical choice to run second against a dominant favorite. Her 25% career win rate is the second-best in the field, and trainer Barbara Heads has her pointed right. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's not a value play, but she profiles as the most likely beneficiary if anything goes sideways with Big Hug late.

show2LicoriceML 7/2

Licorice rounds out the logical trifecta at 7/2 on the morning line, giving trifecta bettors a workable three-horse box in a thin, three-horse field. Her TrackWiz rating of 41.35 trails the top two, but with only three horses in the race, she's automatically on the show podium unless she has a catastrophic trip. Richard Balgobin handles the riding duties in what shapes up as a pace-comfortable run from the outside.

Race 3

11:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A tricky eight-horse claiming sprint-and-a-half where the morning-line favorite doesn't carry the top rating — pace and class separation will decide this one.

win3PachecoML 2/1

Pacheco is our top selection and the highest-rated horse in the field at 88.54, despite going postward at a fair 2/1 morning line. His 25% career win rate is solid for a claimer, and what really stands out is his average speed figure of 55 — tied for the highest in the field alongside several rivals but with far better overall form metrics. Trainer Tom Rycroft and jockey Jose Mariano Asencio combine for a horse that projects to sit near the pace over this mile-and-70-yards trip and have plenty left in the tank.

place2ThiscatsgotspeedML 6/1

Thiscatsgotspeed is an intriguing place contender at 6/1 despite holding the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 67.65. His 19% career win rate is respectable for this level, and a longer trip like a mile-and-70-yards can expose horses whose speed fades — this one should keep grinding. Trainer Rick Hedge has another live runner on the card today, which is worth noting.

show1Cousin RichieML 8/5

Cousin Richie is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 but lands in our show spot, suggesting the public may be slightly overrating him relative to the top two. His 66.62 rating and 18% career win rate are legitimate, and trainer James R. Brown keeps him competitive in this class. He's a logical exotics piece but probably getting beat by the horses above him on our board.

Our three complimentary picks today span the card nicely. In Race 1, Ladyace of Speight draws our top rating (89.42) in a 6-furlong allowance — a sprint distance that should suit a horse we expect to press the pace on a track that's been rewarding early speed. Race 2 brings the day's marquee moment with Big Hug at the 2/5 chalk in the stakes, and while short-priced favorites aren't always the most exciting plays, a TrackWiz rating of 90 doesn't lie. Race 3 rounds out the freebies with Pacheco (88.54) going a mile and 70 yards in a claiming field — distance and class both look right on a clear, dry afternoon that should keep the dirt consistent throughout.

One thread connecting these free picks: with no rain in the forecast and a firm, fast surface, horses with clean early foot have a natural edge today. Keep an eye on post positions and early fractions as the card unfolds — the bias picture should clarify quickly in Race 1.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:43 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A starter allowance at a mile and an eighth where a clear class edge meets a competitive undercard — the favorite looks strong but the price underneath him offers real appeal.

win6Curlin RocksML 9/5

Curlin Rocks owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 88.83 and backs it up with a 33% career win rate — the joint-best strike rate in this field. Sent off at 9/5 on the morning line, he's a deserving chalk play for trainer James R. Brown, who has multiple runners on today's card showing sharp form. Richard Balgobin in the irons is a familiar combination, and at a route distance of a mile and an eighth on dirt, this horse has the profile to control or press the pace and prove best.

place5A Man's ManML 6/1

A Man's Man is the most compelling value angle in this race at 6/1 on the morning line, packing a solid 75.93 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 26% career win rate. Trainer Joan Petrowski has him ready, and jockey Ridge Balgobin should be able to find a comfortable stalking position in a race that may not be overly contested up front. If the favorite has any issues, this horse is well-positioned to capitalize.

show7Silent CountML 6/1

Silent Count rounds out the exotic play at 6/1 with a 68.19 rating and a 16% career win rate. He's not flashy, but in a race with some pace uncertainty over a longer trip, closers and stalkers can find their way to the board. Kyle Carter, who gets plenty of mounts on the day's card, should give him every opportunity to hit the show spot.

Race 5

1:13 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An odds-on public choice at even money is NOT our top pick in this wide-open claimer — our analysis sees a market mismatch that creates real overlay value at double-digit prices.

win6Miss LarueML 12/1

Miss Larue is our top selection at a juicy 12/1 morning line despite carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 73.96. That's a significant disconnect from the public betting, and it's exactly the type of value angle TrackWiz analysis is built to uncover. Her average speed figure of 54 is competitive at this level, and trainer Mel Snow has her ready to fire at a mile-and-70-yards trip. If she gets a clean trip with jockey Kimal Santo, this could be a big-price win.

place3Scarlett LetterML 8/1

Scarlett Letter checks in with a 66.62 rating and goes at 8/1 on the morning line for the James R. Brown barn — a trainer who is clearly active and well-represented on this card. Her 10% win rate reflects the challenge of the claiming ranks, but the rating edge over the bottom half of this field is real. Dane Nelson rides, and at 8/1 she's a strong exotic inclusion for the place spot.

show7CaravallaML 12/1

Caravalla at 12/1 is our show play — she carries a 62.13 rating that ranks third on our board in this race, and trainer Rick Hedge has a productive record at Century Mile. The longer trip may play to her strengths if the pace gets hot up front. At double-digit odds, she's a low-cost add to any trifecta ticket targeting the top two on our board.

Race 6

1:58 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses rate clearly above the rest in this 6-furlong claiming sprint, while the morning-line favorite is overbet relative to the field's actual form profile.

win2Jackpot BarML 4/1

Jackpot Bar tops our board at an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and offers fair value at 4/1 on the morning line. His 25% career win rate is among the best in the field, and the sprint distance of 6 furlongs on dirt plays directly to his profile. Trainer Carson Frey puts Ridge Balgobin up, a jockey who has several live mounts across today's card, and this horse should be forwardly placed and tough to run down in the stretch.

place5SailingforthestarsML 5/1

Sailingforthestars is only a point and a half behind the top pick at 83.71 and goes at 5/1, making her a strong value play for the place slot. Her 16% career win rate is competitive, and trainer Pat Jarvis has her prepped for a race that figures to develop some pace with several speed types entered. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes has the call and projects to have her in a striking position rounding the far turn.

show1Ah ToucheML 5/2

Ah Touche is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 but ranks third on our board at 66.82 — a meaningful gap below the top two horses. There's value in using her underneath rather than on top, given that gap. Trainer Ron Grieves ships another runner out and Mauricio Malvaez rides, giving her a live shot to hit the board even if she falls short of winning.

Race 7

2:28 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where every horse carries a goose egg in the win column — speed figures and TrackWiz ratings are the best separators in a field full of unknowns.

win7BenzeneML 8/1

Benzene is the standout selection at 8/1 despite owning the highest TrackWiz rating in this maiden field by a comfortable margin at 79.79. In a race where no horse has ever won, that rating gap is meaningful — it suggests Benzene's underlying form metrics are materially better than the competition. Trainer David Nicholson sends him out with Ridge Balgobin aboard, and the 6-furlong sprint distance should suit a horse with his profile. This is a genuine overlay in a race where the morning line undervalues him significantly.

place1Chasing DaydreamsML 7/2

Chasing Daydreams is our place play at 7/2 — the second-highest rated horse in the field at 55.83, and a horse whose trainer Rodney J. Cone clearly believes in given the morning-line support. Linton Leon Steadman gets the call, and the race shape could set up nicely if Benzene draws some early attention. At 7/2, she's a logical place exacta partner with our top pick.

show3Atta Boy GirlML 5/1

Atta Boy Girl comes in with a 53.33 rating and no average speed figure on record — which in a maiden race can actually be intriguing, as unknown quantities sometimes outrun their morning lines. Trainer Deanna Walper has her entered at 5/1, and Dane Nelson's veteran presence in the irons could help a green horse find her way around the track. She rounds out a logical trifecta at a reasonable price.

Race 8

2:58 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A deep, nine-horse stakes field with four horses bunched between 80 and 84 on the TrackWiz scale — genuine pace and trip scenarios will separate them, making exotics the play.

win7Rainbow's PrideML 9/2

Rainbow's Pride tops our board at 84.00 and goes at 9/2 on the morning line — one of the best ratings-to-price combinations on the entire card. His 26% career win rate is solid for stakes company, and his average speed figure of 55 ties him with several rivals at the top of the field. Trainer Craig Robert Smith has him primed, and Richard Balgobin in the irons is a top pilot on this circuit. At a mile-and-70-yards in a quality field, he has the stamina and class to close this out.

place3Lord of BattleML 5/2

Lord of Battle is only 2.3 points behind our top pick at 81.70, but his profile is built for distance — a 42% career win rate is the second-highest in the field and speaks to a consistent horse who knows how to finish. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson, who has multiple runners in this race, sends him out with Anastasios Chalaris in the irons. His average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the entire field, which is a number worth circling.

show5SunbirdML 4/1

Sunbird at 4/1 rates third on our board at 80.38 with a strong 38% career win rate — one of the most accomplished records in this field. Trainer Geovani Olalde doubles up in this race with two live entries, and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes handles Sunbird. The pace scenario over this route distance may set up perfectly for a closer with Sunbird's profile, and he's the most logical single-horse show add to any multi-race ticket.

Race 9

3:28 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The closing 6-furlong claiming sprint features a dominant top-rated horse at a fair price, but there's a hidden-form longshot on our board that gives trifecta players a big-price option.

win3G T Ray SirML 9/5

G T Ray Sir is the standout of the closer with a 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on our board in this race — and goes at a fair 9/5 morning line. Trainer Ron Grieves, who is exceptionally active today across the Century Mile card, clearly has this horse dialed in. N'Rico Prescod gets the mount and should have him in a forward position in a sprint that figures to unfold quickly. His average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the pace of this field.

place2PonderosaML 10/1

Ponderosa is our value play in the place slot at 10/1 — a significant overlay given his 64.15 TrackWiz rating that ranks second on our board. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson doubles up in this race similarly to Race 8, which suggests a confident barn. His 7% career win rate looks modest on the surface, but his average speed figure of 54 matches the top horses in this field, and at 10/1 he's a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

show8Max BoosterML 9/2

Max Booster at 9/2 holds a 59.76 rating and projects as a solid show piece in a race where the top two picks carry longshot odds underneath the favorite. Trainer Pat Jarvis has him entered at a distance that should suit his profile, and Kimal Santo takes the call. He's the kind of horse that finds his way to the board in competitive sprint fields at Century Mile.

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Bottom line for July 11 at Century Mile: Ladyace of Speight, Big Hug, and Pacheco headline our free best bets on a card that plays fast and fair under clear skies. The full nine-race breakdown — including pace projections, exotic plays, and our take on Rainbow's Pride and Miss Larue — is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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