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Century Mile Picks & Predictions — July 4, 2026

Saturday, July 4, 20269 racesCentury Mile

Happy Fourth of July from Century Mile, where the fireworks tonight aren't the only sparks flying — there's a loaded 9-race card on the dirt that's worth your full attention. Partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 69°F make for ideal racing conditions, and a fast, consistent surface is exactly what you want heading into a holiday card packed with short sprints and route tests alike.

We've got a nice mix of race types today: Claiming races bookend the card in Races 1 and 7, three Maiden Special Weight events in the middle stretch (Races 4–6) give us a look at some intriguing younger horses, and four Allowance Optional Claiming routes round things out. Whether you're playing the whole card or cherry-picking your spots, there's plenty to dig into.

TrackWiz analysis covers all 9 races. The first three are on the house — free for every reader. Races 4 through 9 are part of our full premium breakdown, available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite gets upstaged on paper — Briar's Rose owns the top TrackWiz rating in this 6-furlong dirt claimer despite going off at 5/1, making this a race where the crowd may be sleeping on the right horse.

win7Briar's RoseML 5/1

Briar's Rose lands at the top of our ratings with an 84.17 score, the best mark in the field, yet the morning line has her at a generous 5/1 — that's the kind of overlay you circle on a holiday card. Jose Mariano Asencio picks up the mount, and with a career win rate of 12%, this horse has proven she can close out a race. At 6 furlongs on dirt, she should be comfortable with the sprint distance, and if she gets a clean trip out of post 7, the pace setup should set up nicely for her to pounce late.

place2Prairie SkyML 4/5

Prairie Sky is the heavy morning-line favorite at 4/5 for a reason — a 78.21 TrackWiz rating backs up that public support, and trainer Craig Robert Smith also saddles the third entry, showing confidence in the barn's chances today. The 12% career win rate is modest, but in a short field like this, hitting the board is a very reasonable expectation. Don't expect much value here, but she's a safe place anchor in your exotics.

show5Scarlett LetterML 8/1

Scarlett Letter at 8/1 on the morning line is the sneaky inclusion in the show slot, sporting a solid 65.86 rating that puts her squarely in the middle tier of this field. With an 11% career win rate and a consistent average speed figure, she's the kind of horse that doesn't wow you but doesn't embarrass you either. Kodi Dottin-Downes gets the call for trainer Colleen O'Hagan, and she offers real value for trifecta players willing to use her underneath.

Race 2

11:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A tight battle shapes up at the top between two nearly identical TrackWiz ratings — Snap to It (80.09) and Letsgotothenino (79.79) are separated by less than a point, making this allowance optional claiming route a genuine two-horse war with supporting cast capable of mixing in.

win6Snap to ItML 9/5

Snap to It carries the best combination of rating and morning-line credibility in this field — an 80.09 TrackWiz score paired with a 9/5 chalk price tells you the public agrees. A 20% career win rate is legitimate, and trainer Barbara Heads has her ready to go with jockey Amadeo Perez in the irons. At a mile and 70 yards, pace scenario favors closers, and Snap to It's profile suggests she has the stamina to run down whatever sets the early fractions.

place3LetsgototheninoML 8/1

Letsgotothenino is the most compelling value play in this race — a 79.79 rating that nearly matches the top pick, but priced at 8/1 on the morning line. What really pops here is a 50% career win rate, by far the highest in the field and a number that commands respect regardless of how you handicap. Trainer Robert Henson sends her out with Brian Boodramsingh up, and at this price, she's an absolute must-use in exactas.

show8Drinking AgainML 6/1

Drinking Again checks in with a 68.11 rating and a solid 20% career win rate, giving her a legitimate shot to hit the board at a fair 6/1 morning line. Her average speed figure of 55 is tied for the top mark in the field alongside Cousin Richie, which suggests she has the raw ability to compete at this level. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez rides for trainer Tom Rycroft, and the route distance at a mile and 70 yards suits a horse with her closing profile.

Race 3

11:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Holiday's Again dominates the ratings in what looks like a potential single for top-handicappers, but the even-money quote on Attack and a capable supporting cast make this allowance route more interesting than the chalk suggests.

win5Holiday's AgainML 7/2

Holiday's Again towers over this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark by a wide margin — and a 26% career win rate that ranks among the best in the race. Going postward at a reasonable 7/2, there's still some value attached to what the numbers suggest is a standout performance profile. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for trainer Tim Rycroft, a combination worth noting, and at a mile and 70 yards Holiday's Again should have every opportunity to sit a stalking trip and pounce in the stretch.

place7ThompsonML 4/1

Thompson brings a 67.29 rating and a 22% career win rate to a race where the middle tier is genuinely competitive. Amadeo Perez takes the mount for trainer Geovani Olalde, and the top average speed figure in the field at 55 is a meaningful edge when the pace heats up in the stretch run. At 4/1 on the morning line, Thompson offers fair value as the logical second choice for exotic players.

show4TitianML 8/1

Titian slots in third on our ratings at 64.38, and a 20% career win rate shows this horse is no stranger to the winner's circle. Trainer Robert Henson goes to Alexander Marti, and even though Titian's average speed figure of 52 trails the top contenders, at 8/1 on the morning line there's enough upside to make her a viable show play or trifecta inclusion for bettors looking to build some value into their tickets.

Our three free races — the opening 6-furlong Claiming sprint, the first Allowance Optional Claiming route, and the second AOC at a mile and 70 yards — set a nice tempo for the day. On a surface playing true and fast under partly cloudy skies, pace is going to be a real factor in these routes. Snap to It in Race 2 and Holiday's Again in Race 3 both earned solid TrackWiz ratings (80.09 and 86.35, respectively), and the routing distances should separate horses with real staying ability from those who are just along for the ride early.

In Race 1, Briar's Rose jumps out at us at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth respecting for a horse carrying an 84.17 TrackWiz rating in a Claiming sprint where pace scenarios can get chaotic. Don't sleep on the early races just because they're free. Some of the best value on any card hides right at the top of the program.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

Maiden special weight at 7 furlongs, and Bank Draft enters as an overwhelming favorite — the question for exotic players is which of the middle-priced runners can sneak into the exacta behind the heavy chalk.

win8Bank DraftML 6/5

Bank Draft owns an 89.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark among all eight entries and a score that isn't particularly close to the competition. Priced at 6/5 on the morning line, the public is clearly on board, and in a maiden special weight field where nobody has a career win to their name, raw ability figures are often the most reliable guide. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez picks up a prime mount for trainer Tim Rycroft, and with an average speed figure of 53, Bank Draft has shown enough in the morning to justify heavy favoritism.

place6See Me Do ItML 3/1

See Me Do It sits second in our ratings at 56.67 and draws a favorable 3/1 morning line — making her the most logical exacta partner for Bank Draft backers. Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides for trainer Gonzalo Anderson, and an average speed figure of 52 is modest but consistent with the mid-range of this field. In a maiden race where upsets are always possible, she's the most grounded second choice available.

show3Skip's MoneyML 4/1

Skip's Money carries a 55.0 TrackWiz rating and gets the services of Kimal Santo for trainer Craig Robert Smith — a barn with multiple entries across this card, which speaks to stable confidence. No average speed figure is available, which introduces uncertainty, but the 4/1 morning line suggests the market respects the connections enough to make this horse a serious contender. For trifecta players, Skip's Money is a reasonable third leg at a price that won't decimate your payout.

Race 5

12:45 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

Tranquil Tundra sets up as a strong maiden favorite on the numbers, but Sound of Applause and Raise Money make this 7-furlong dirt maiden more competitive than a one-horse race — pace scenario and post position could swing the outcome.

win7Tranquil TundraML 7/2

Tranquil Tundra tops this maiden field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — matching Holiday's Again from Race 3, which is outstanding company — and goes postward at a fair 7/2 for trainer Craig Robert Smith. N'Rico Prescod gets the mount, and with an average speed figure of 53, the raw ability metrics align well with the top price tier. In a maiden special weight where no horse has broken their maiden yet, having the highest numerical rating by a clear margin is a meaningful edge.

place8Sound of ApplauseML 5/2

Sound of Applause is the morning-line second choice at 5/2, backed by a 71.11 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54 — which actually tops Tranquil Tundra's 53. Amadeo Perez takes the call for trainer Deanne Davies, who also sends out He Can Dangle from post 9, suggesting stable confidence in the barn's two entries. Sound of Applause appears to be the sharper of the two Davies runners and is a must-use in any exacta or trifecta construction.

show4Raise MoneyML 6/1

Raise Money is a player at 6/1 on the morning line, posting a 66.01 TrackWiz rating that slots her firmly in the third tier of this field — which in a competitive maiden is right where you want your show horse to sit. Brian Boodramsingh rides for trainer Carson Frey, and an average speed figure of 54 mirrors the top contenders in terms of raw pace ability. At double-digit potential odds depending on betting activity, she's an attractive trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

Seattle Sting lands as our top-rated horse despite being priced at 8/1 on the morning line — a genuine overlay in a maiden field where the morning-line favorite Queen Pat carries a lower rating, setting up a potential price play.

win8Seattle StingML 8/1

Seattle Sting's 78.14 TrackWiz rating leads this entire maiden field, yet the morning line has her tucked away at 8/1 — that's a significant disconnect between the public price and what the numbers say. Keihton Natera rides for trainer David Nicholson, and with an average speed figure of 54, Seattle Sting matches the field's average pace ability while projecting upside in terms of overall performance. In a 7-furlong maiden special weight where raw ratings often carry the day, this horse is squarely in the value sweet spot.

place1Queen PatML 9/5

Queen Pat draws post 1 with a 75.52 TrackWiz rating and the morning-line favoritism at 9/5 — the crowd's top choice, and the numbers mostly agree with that respect. N'Rico Prescod rides for Craig Robert Smith, one of the more active trainers on this card, and the average speed figure of 54 is consistent with a horse capable of pressing or stalking the early pace. She's a reliable place anchor even if Seattle Sting steals the win at a bigger price.

show4Golden GooseML 3/1

Golden Goose checks in third on our ratings at 66.80 and draws a 3/1 morning line that gives her an honest shot at the board in a nine-horse maiden field. Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez rides for trainer Tom Rycroft — a pairing that has appeared multiple times across this card — and an average speed figure of 54 puts Golden Goose right in the middle of the pack from a raw speed standpoint. She rounds out a logical trifecta combination with the top two choices.

Race 7

1:45 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

February enters as the class of this 6-furlong claiming field on both ratings and morning line, but Stay Up at 4/1 looks like a live second choice that could make things interesting — a potential one-two punch for exacta players.

win7FebruaryML 9/5

February is the standout in Race 7 with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the best mark in the field by a meaningful margin — and backs that up with a 23% career win rate that leads all starters. Jose Mariano Asencio, who has been among the busiest jockeys on this card, picks up the mount for trainer Tom Rycroft, a strong combo. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't a bargain, but you're paying for a horse who looks like a genuine single at 6 furlongs on dirt.

place9Stay UpML 4/1

Stay Up sits second in our ratings at 79.85 and carries a 19% career win rate that speaks to consistent performance at this claiming level. Dane Nelson rides for trainer Seymour Biggs, and an average speed figure of 54 matches February stride-for-stride from a raw pace perspective. At 4/1 on the morning line, Stay Up offers legitimate place value and is the obvious second half of any exacta keying February on top.

show6Rising StrongML 6/1

Rising Strong rounds out the top three on our ratings at 65.66, with a career win rate of 18% showing she's a legitimate contender capable of hitting the board at this level. Rafael Zenteno Jr. gets the mount for trainer Jason Coney, and an average speed figure of 54 puts her right in the middle of this competitive speed pack. At 6/1, she's an appealing trifecta wheel for bettors looking to build value underneath the top two.

Race 8

2:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

My Munnings Model flies somewhat under the radar at 4/1 despite owning the top TrackWiz rating in this allowance optional claiming mile — a potential overlay with the morning-line favorite Ghostly Spitfire priced tighter at 9/5 but rated considerably lower.

win2My Munnings ModelML 4/1

My Munnings Model tops this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 — a clear edge when it comes to raw pace ability. Dane Nelson rides for trainer Gonzalo Anderson, and a 15% career win rate, while modest, is backed by the best underlying numbers in the field. The 4/1 morning line is honestly a gift given that rating, and at a mile and 70 yards, that high speed figure projects to be a major weapon if she can settle and fire late.

place7Ghostly SpitfireML 9/5

Ghostly Spitfire is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a 76.56 rating — legitimate credentials, but notably lower than our top pick. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for trainer Tim Rycroft, a pairing that has been among the most active and productive across this full card. An 18% career win rate and average speed figure of 55 suggest she has the tools to run a strong race, and her chalk status makes her a natural place anchor for exotics.

show1NewhartML 6/1

Newhart offers solid value in the show slot at 6/1 on the morning line, posting a 65.44 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate. Brian Boodramsingh gets the call for trainer Mel Snow, and an average speed figure of 55 matches Ghostly Spitfire step for step in the pace department. In a seven-horse field where the top two look clear, Newhart is a logical trifecta component for players who want to keep some meat on the bone.

Race 9

2:45 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Made for Cruisin looks like a potential single to close out the card — the top rating and the morning-line chalk converge on one horse — but Sixty Six and Run as One give trifecta players interesting supporting options at fair prices.

win3Made for CruisinML 3/2

Made for Cruisin is the dominant figure in the finale, carrying an 89.27 TrackWiz rating — the highest on the entire card today — along with a 33% career win rate that is tied for the best among all starters. Jose Mariano Asencio, who has had a full day's work at Century Mile, gets the prime mount for trainer Tim Rycroft, and an average speed figure of 55 shows she runs fast enough to back up the ratings. At 3/2 on the morning line, there isn't much value left, but this is as close to a confident single as you'll find in a nine-race card.

place8Sixty SixML 5/1

Sixty Six brings a 70.26 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — matching the top pick's win percentage — and goes postward at a fair 5/1 morning line. Kyle Carter rides for trainer David Nicholson, and an average speed figure of 54 puts her right in the competitive mix for a 6-furlong sprint. She's the most logical second choice in this race and a strong exacta partner underneath Made for Cruisin.

show4Run as OneML 9/2

Run as One posts a 65.72 rating and a 14% career win rate, landing her squarely in the third tier of this competitive allowance field. Amadeo Perez picks up the mount for trainer Marvin Buffalo, and an average speed figure of 54 is competitive with the mid-range of this field. At 9/2 on the morning line, she rounds out an attractive trifecta combination to cap a full day of racing at Century Mile.

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Bottom line: Century Mile is giving us a well-rounded Independence Day card under ideal conditions. Our free picks — Briar's Rose, Snap to It, and Holiday's Again — are solid starting points, but the real value and the most actionable exotic plays are buried in Races 4 through 9. Bank Draft and Made for Cruisin are the two horses we'd be most excited about on the full card. Unlock the complete TrackWiz analysis at /pricing and make today count at the windows.

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