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Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — September 10, 2026

September 10, 20267 racesAll Canterbury Park picks

This card ran on September 10, 2026.

Best bets at Canterbury Park, September 10, 2026

Race 11Shances RML 3/16:10 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Thursday at Canterbury Park — clear skies, 80 degrees, and the kind of firm turf that rewards horses with a genuine turn of foot. Seven races are on the board, split evenly between the grass and the main track, and conditions look as good as you're going to get this time of year in Shakopee.

Today's card has a little bit of everything: a pair of maiden specials to kick things off, some competitive claiming action in the middle of the card, and an Allowance Optional Claiming turf mile in Race 5 that shapes up as the day's marquee event. With the grass playing fast on a dry, clear afternoon, TrackWiz analysis is leaning heavily into speed figures and early pace scenarios across the turf races.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where the morning-line favorite and our top-rated horse don't even agree — the crowd may lean toward Westdakota at 9/5, but TrackWiz sees real separation at the top of the ratings.

win1Shances RML 3/1

Shances R carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 — a full seven points clear of second-ranked Southgate Gator — and that gap matters in a maiden field where form edges are everything. Kelsi Harr gets the call in the irons, and the 5-furlong turf configuration plays well for a horse whose avg speed figure of 54 leads the field. At 3/1, this is a case where our top-rated horse offers genuine value over the morning-line favorite, making Shances R a confident top selection.

place2Southgate GatorML 2/1

Southgate Gator checks in second on the TrackWiz ratings board at 79.82 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 with Constantino Roman aboard. The avg speed figure of 53 is competitive in this maiden company, and a horse that the public trusts at the short price is always worth including underneath in your exotics.

show3WestdakotaML 9/5

Westdakota is the public's pick at 9/5 morning line, so you'll want coverage here for exacta and trifecta tickets. Trained by Katlin Bedford, this horse posts a rating of 73.22 and matches Southgate Gator on avg speed at 53 — solid enough for a board hit in a maiden sprint where the margins can be razor thin.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Two horses sit within a fraction of each other at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden turf mile, setting up a tight battle at the top while the rest of the field tries to hang on.

win4Strike CommanderML 9/5

Strike Commander edges out Go Leroy Go by the thinnest of margins — 58.67 to 58.33 on the TrackWiz scale — but it's the combination of that rating edge and the Eduardo Gallardo booking that pushes this one to the top spot. The avg speed figure of 53 is respectable for a turf maiden going a mile, and the 9/5 morning line tells you the public agrees this is the horse to beat. In a race this close at the top, we're backing the slight edge in our numbers.

place2Go Leroy GoML 2/1

Go Leroy Go is essentially a coin flip with our win pick on paper, and Constantino Roman is one of the more active riders at Canterbury. The 2/1 morning line makes this horse the co-favorite in the eyes of the public, and with a rating of 58.33 and an avg speed of 52, he belongs right in the thick of it at the top of the stretch.

show6Sommers RebelML 9/2

Sommers Rebel is an interesting one — trained by Coty W. Rosin and ridden by Jose Riquelme, this horse carries a rating of 54.17 with no avg speed figure on record, which often signals a first-time starter or limited data. That mystery factor at 9/2 makes Sommers Rebel a worthwhile inclusion in your trifecta tickets, especially if the race sets up with a pace duel between the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Three races are open to every TrackWiz reader today, and they cover a nice range of conditions. Race 1 (5-furlong turf maiden) features Shances R at 3/1 on the morning line — a top TrackWiz rating of 87.08 makes this one of the stronger free-race plays on the card. Race 2 stretches out to a full mile on the turf for maiden company, where Strike Commander opens as the 9/5 program favorite. And Race 3 brings us back to the dirt for a 6-furlong allowance, where our analysis flags Vali Vali Val as a legitimate overlay at 6/1 — don't let that morning line scare you off.

A common thread across all three free races: the firm turf and dry main track should favor horses that can establish position early without burning out. Pace scenario matters today. Keep an eye on how the early fractions develop — on a fast surface like this, wire-to-wire winners are very much in play.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A legit value play situation on the dirt — our top-rated horse goes off at 6/1 morning line while the public money piles on shorter-priced rivals, creating a genuine overlay opportunity in this allowance sprint.

win4Vali Vali ValML 6/1

Vali Vali Val is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71, which towers over every other horse in this field by more than 16 points — and yet the morning line has this one at 6/1, suggesting the public hasn't caught up yet. Trained by Tim P. Padilla and ridden by Luis A. Fuentes, this horse carries a 10% career win rate and an avg speed of 55 that ties for the field's best. In allowance company, a horse with this kind of rating edge going off at a generous price is exactly the kind of bet TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place5Bl FortyML 5/1

Bl Forty comes in at 5/1 with Kelsi Harr aboard and posts a TrackWiz rating of 66.06 — second-best in this field. A 9% career win rate and an avg speed of 54 are workmanlike numbers, and in a race where the top pick offers value, having Bl Forty underneath at a fair price makes for a solid exacta combination.

show3Plinko ChipML 2/1

Plinko Chip is likely to attract public money at 2/1 morning line, making this horse a necessary ticket item for trifecta coverage. Trained by McLean Robertson, the rating sits at 60.01 with a 6% career win rate — not flashy, but the price suggests oddsmakers respect the form here, and an on-the-board finish looks achievable.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

7:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Dr. Perry emerges as a clear class standout in this 5-furlong turf claimer, carrying the field's top TrackWiz rating at nearly 20 points clear of the next horse — but keep an eye on a sneaky longshot lurking in double digits.

win6Dr. PerryML 7/2

Dr. Perry leads all horses in this race with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — a massive separation from the field — and pairs that with an avg speed figure of 57 that also tops the card. Alonso Quinonez gets the mount for Tim P. Padilla, a trainer who also has True Myth and Wildcat Minny in action today, suggesting a confident barn. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse you're backing with both your head and the numbers.

place7Awesome FantasyML 9/2

Awesome Fantasy rates second in this field at 67.80 with Jermaine V. Bridgmohan aboard, trained by Michael E. Biehler who also saddles Saint Charles in the same race. The 10% career win rate is modest but functional, and an avg speed of 56 — tied for second-best in the field — supports a place effort at the 9/2 price.

show5G DawgML 12/1

G Dawg is the longshot angle here on the show end — 12/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 64.96 and a career win rate of 23% that is the second-highest in this field. That win percentage tells you this horse knows how to finish in front, and at double-digit odds, including G Dawg in your trifecta is a smart hedge with real upside.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Rose View looks like the class of this turf mile field and comes in as a short-priced favorite — but Hattie Bloom's elite career win rate makes the exacta combination especially attractive.

win5Rose ViewML 8/5

Rose View is the cream of this crop, posting the field's top TrackWiz rating at 89.12 and a career win percentage of 26% — both metrics lead the field outright. Trained by Jose Silva Jr. and ridden by Eduardo Gallardo, this horse brings consistent avg speed at 54 and is battle-tested at the allowance optional claiming level. The 8/5 morning line reflects deserved favoritism, and our numbers strongly support making this the anchor of your tickets.

place3Hattie BloomML 9/2

Hattie Bloom is quietly one of the most accomplished horses in this field with a 25% career win rate — the second-highest mark among all entrants. Kelsi Harr gets the call for trainer Jose Silva Jr., who also conditions Rose View, which tells you this barn is loaded for this race. At 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 74.84, this is a legitimate place contender and an attractive exacta partner beneath the favorite.

show7ToffeeML 4/1

Toffee offers a different profile — a 7% career win rate is modest, but the TrackWiz rating of 71.33 is the third-best in this eight-horse field. Fausto Henrique Da Silva handles the ride for Dennis D. Peters, and at 4/1 morning line this horse sits in an interesting middle ground — not a longshot, not short enough to scare you off. Solid trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

8:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't the TrackWiz favorite here — our analysis identifies a clear overlay at 8/1 in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, with the numbers pointing away from the chalk.

win5Wildcat MinnyML 8/1

Wildcat Minny is our top selection at 8/1 morning line, carrying the field's second-highest TrackWiz rating at 79.79 — well ahead of the favorite's mark. Alonso Quinonez rides for Tim P. Padilla, a trainer with multiple entries on today's card indicating a live barn, and the 17% career win rate adds credibility to this selection. When the numbers this clearly favor a horse at double-digit morning-line odds, that's the definition of an overlay — exactly the kind of value TrackWiz is designed to surface.

place1Pepper N MintML 4/1

Pepper N Mint leads all runners in career win percentage at 25%, a number that demands respect in any field. Sachin Parris gets the call for trainer Bennie L. Woolley Jr., and despite going off at 4/1, this horse's TrackWiz rating of 76.27 makes it a legitimate contender to hit the board and a comfortable place selection beneath our top pick.

show3Ask the MonarchML 2/1

Ask the Monarch draws the public's favor at 2/1 morning line and holds a TrackWiz rating of 66.26 — competitive but not dominant in this field. Eduardo Gallardo rides for Jose Silva Jr., and the avg speed figure of 55 ties for best in the race. Even if our analysis doesn't see this one winning, the combination of public money and solid raw speed makes it a credible show play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

9:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Lace Up looks like a dominant top selection in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, posting a rating nearly 25 points clear of the closest rival — this is the race where the numbers are loudest.

win2Lace UpML 2/1

Lace Up is simply the best horse in this field by our measure — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 towers over the competition, with Caught Off Guard next at 63.84, a gap of nearly 25 points. Luis A. Fuentes rides for Tim P. Padilla, and the 15% career win rate is consistent with a horse that competes near the top of the field on a regular basis. The 2/1 morning line is short, but when the numbers are this decisive, you don't need value — you need confidence.

place4Caught Off GuardML 9/2

Caught Off Guard is the logical secondary play with a TrackWiz rating of 63.84 and a 14% career win rate. Constantino Roman steers for Joel Berndt, and the avg speed figure of 54 edges out several rivals in this field. At 9/2 morning line, there's room for a fair return on a place bet while anchoring your exacta beneath the top selection.

show6Hey RiverML 3/1

Hey River comes in at 3/1 morning line, making this one of the shorter-priced show options in today's card. Eduardo Gallardo rides for Jose Silva Jr., and a 15% career win rate matches the win pick on that front. The TrackWiz rating of 55.50 is middle-of-the-pack, but the odds suggest the public sees a contender, and this is worth covering in trifecta play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Bottom line: Canterbury Park is dealing a clean, fast card today under ideal conditions. Shances R, Strike Commander, and Vali Vali Val are your free best bets to get started, and Rose View headlines the premium half of the card as our highest-rated horse of the day. For pace projections, exotic tickets, and the full seven-race breakdown, subscribe to TrackWiz and get every angle before the first race goes off. Good luck out there — let's cash some tickets.

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