Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — November 14, 2026

Burhan holds the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 75.68 and posted the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.05 sec/furlong — essentially deadlocked with Spirit Prince on that measure. The Prat-Brown partnership is impossible to ignore at a 31% win rate and 76% in-the-money rate over the past year, and Burhan won 22.15% of our 10,000 simulations, actually nudging Spirit Prince on that metric. The 2/1 price makes straight win value thin, but Burhan is a lock for the exacta and place position.

Hammerhead rates third overall at 75.38 and has cashed in his last two races while owning a 1-for-3 record at the one-mile distance specifically. His 55% in-the-money rate across his career is respectable, and the 20% jockey win rate from Fresu over the past year adds to his profile. The concern is his recent race speed ranked last in the field at 12.30 sec/furlong, so he may need to improve his figures to hold on for a piece.

Mursal enters with the best recent race speed figure in the entire field — 11.98 sec/furlong — and has placed in 5 of his last 6 starts, showing he knows how to hit the board consistently. His 27% career win rate and 11 wins from 34 dirt starts prove he belongs in this company. The concern is age — the TrackWiz model flags him as potentially past his prime at 6 — but that consistent recent form says he's still running well enough to land in the exacta.

Proud Foot grades third in the field at 74.83 and brings a 57% in-the-money rate and 7 wins from 44 dirt starts, suggesting class and durability. Manuel Franco, who wins at 25% over the past year, is a significant positive. The red flags are real though — he's failed to place in three straight and is 8 years old — so he's a speculative show inclusion rather than a primary target, best used underneath in trifectas.

Uncle Jim rates second in the field at 80.82 and clocked the third-fastest recent race speed at 12.25 sec/furlong, keeping him in striking range on figures. Rocco Bowen has won 23% of his mounts over the past year, adding pilot quality, and Uncle Jim's 3-for-20 dirt record demonstrates familiarity with the surface. The only concern is a claiming price jump from $20,000 to $35,000 — stepping up in class is always a risk — but the raw numbers at 6/1 suggest he could represent real exacta value.

War Stride rates third overall at 74.76 and owns a solid 54% in-the-money rate with 4 wins from 18 dirt starts, showing he reliably competes at this level. Manuel Franco's 25% win rate over the past year is a consistent positive. The concern worth noting is War Stride's 0-for-2 record at Belmont specifically — this track hasn't suited him — but trifecta bettors may find him a reasonable third-slot inclusion at 4/1.

Momentary Star posted the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at 11.88 sec/furlong — a figure that pops off the page — and owns a perfect in-the-money mark from one career start, placing in that race. The TrackWiz model rates him second in the field at 56.67, and his average speed of 56 sec/furlong is the highest of any horse with recorded figures in this race. The jockey grade is a C, which is a mild concern, but the speed figure alone makes him dangerous at 3/1.

Kingsley represents the classic Chad Brown/Flavien Prat first-time starter angle — no race speed on file, but a 31% win rate and 76% in-the-money mark for the Prat-Brown combination over the past year is impossible to dismiss. Brown regularly wins debut races with lightly raced types, and Prat's presence on a horse with no prior figures suggests the barn thinks he's ready. At 4/1 morning-line odds, Kingsley fits as a third-position play in trifectas against horses with actual race figures.

Final Verdict rates a close second at 84.17 and owns a strong 75% in-the-money mark — the best of any horse in this field — with four cashes in his last six starts. His recent race speed ranked third at 11.66 sec/furlong, keeping him competitive on figures. The concern is age (flagged as potentially past prime at 6) and a pedestrian workout rank of 10th in the field, but his in-the-money consistency makes him an easy exacta play at 5/1.

No Evidence rates third in the field at 83.27 and has been remarkably consistent lately — four cashes in his last five starts, with three consecutive in-the-money finishes heading into today. Flavien Prat takes the mount and has won 29% of his rides over the past year, which is elite at this level. The only flag is a poor workout rank (11th in the field), suggesting he's coming into this race on feel rather than sharp drills — but his recent race form says he's ready.

Heavenly Light rates second in this field at 76.12 and brings a 73% in-the-money mark — the best of any horse in the race — with four cashes in her last six starts. Flavien Prat has won 29% of his rides over the past year, and her 4-for-10 dirt record shows she consistently fires on this surface. The one flag is poor workout numbers (10th of 11 in the field), but her consistent race-day form outweighs what happens in the mornings. At 3/1, she's a legitimate place and show threat.

Miss Lao rates third in the field at 67.50 and posted the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.44 sec/furlong, confirming she belongs in this mix. Her 5 wins and 18 cashes from 35 dirt starts speak to durability and competitiveness at the claiming level. Kendrick Carmouche has hit the board in 49% of his rides over the past year, providing solid pilot quality. At 9/2, she rounds out the trifecta nicely as a horse who shows up consistently.

Metallican represents a genuine overlay angle at 12/1 morning-line odds — he holds the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 73.96 and owns a perfect 100% career in-the-money mark with three consecutive cashes heading into today. His recent race speed ranked second in the field at 11.54 sec/furlong, and Samuel Marin has hit the board in 59% of his rides over the past year. At that double-digit price in a stakes race, he's a live longshot who belongs in multi-race tickets.

Riyadh Way rates third at 71.03 and has the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at 11.31 sec/furlong — that's a significant figure advantage that could translate to a quick early pace. He's placed in his last two starts and owns a 66% career in-the-money rate. The concern is his jockey, who has posted only a 6% win rate over the past year — that's a real negative in a stakes race — but the raw speed figure and recent form keep him relevant for show and trifecta consideration at 8/1.

Fanshell Beach rates second in the field at 69.85 and brings a 66% career win rate along with two cashes in her last three starts, showing current form. Her recent race speed ranked third in the field at 11.61 sec/furlong, keeping her within striking distance of Brickyard Belle on figures. The concern is a workout rank of 10th in the field, which is a touch worrying heading into a stakes race — but her race-day record is strong enough to warrant place consideration at 4/1.

Scabiosa is listed at 20/1 on the morning line but brings a compelling profile — she's placed in six consecutive starts, the longest active in-the-money streak in this field, and clocked the fastest recent race speed of any horse in the race at 11.44 sec/furlong. Her TrackWiz rating of 62.29 ranks third, and she won 7.44% of our simulations — far more than her 20/1 price implies. For trifecta and superfecta players, she's one of the best value plays on the entire card today.

Sidearm rates second in the field at 80.78 and is coming in hot — he's placed in five of his last six starts, including two consecutive in-the-money finishes heading into today. Antonio Fresu has hit the board in 60% of his rides over the past year, providing reliable pilot quality, and Sidearm owns a 62% career in-the-money mark showing consistent competitiveness. At 7/2, the value window is narrow but he's the strongest alternative to Playa Del Mar and belongs in exactas.

Cocktailsnkringle rates third in this field at 69.16 and has quietly built a solid profile — four cashes in his last six starts, 3 wins from 23 dirt starts, and a 50% career in-the-money mark. Samuel Marin has hit the board in 59% of his rides over the past year, adding to the confidence. At 10/1 morning-line odds, he won 8.65% of our simulations — not a massive number, but enough to justify a third-slot trifecta inclusion at a price that more than compensates for the risk.