Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — November 13, 2026

Secret Connection is an interesting second-choice play — she owns the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 12.19 sec/furlong and has placed in each of her last two races, giving her the hottest short-term form in the group. At 8/1 morning line, she's a legitimate overlay with Englehart training and a 66% in-the-money career rate that matches the favorite's. The place slot looks very playable here.

Naughty Nancy is the third-ranked horse per TrackWiz rating at 57.50 and has Manuel Franco up — a rider who's hit the board in 64% of his starts over the past year. She carries a 50% in-the-money career rate and has solid recent pace figures, though her recent race speed ranks below the top two. At 5/2, she's not a huge overlay, but she's a sensible show ticket in what projects as a relatively short field.

Will of a Womanne is the second-ranked horse by TrackWiz rating at 79.79 and brings a strong dirt record — one win and five in-the-money finishes in just eight dirt starts. She's been away from the races for 144 days, which the data flags as a potential concern: she may just be using this spot to sharpen up after a long layoff. Zayas gets on, and her workout pattern ranks third in the field, so there are signs she could be ready. At 8/1 morning line, the value case is real if she handles the rust.

Amelia's Echo is third in TrackWiz ratings at 78.84 and has quietly compiled a solid dirt profile — one win and eight in-the-money finishes in 15 dirt starts. Silvestre Gonzalez, who grades out as an A- rider, picks up the mount. She wins 18.77% of our simulations, edging both the win pick and the place pick, which speaks to how even this race really is. At 9/2, she's a natural show play and exotic component.

George's Pal Vinny gets Flavien Prat — who posts a 29% win rate over the past year — and ranks third in the field's workout speed, which suggests he's tightened up nicely for this debut or return. His recent race speed ranks fourth, slightly behind the pace-setters, and he hasn't placed in his last two starts, which is a legitimate concern. At 9/2, though, the Prat connection alone commands respect, and he grades out as the second-ranked horse for the place slot.

Threejoesinarow draws John Velazquez, who has an 18% win rate and a 47% in-the-money rate over the past year, and ranks second in the field's workout clockings at 12.00 sec/furlong — a tidy prep line for a maiden sprinter. He has no recorded race speed figure, suggesting limited race experience, so we're leaning heavily on the workout profile and connections here. At 5/1, he's a reasonable third wheel for exotic plays in what amounts to a wide-open maiden race.

Math Tutor owns the fastest recent race speed in this field — 11.92 sec/furlong — and has placed in four of his last six starts, giving him the best recent form of any runner in the race. Manuel Franco takes the mount with a 24% win rate over the past year, and Math Tutor's 15% career win rate is respectable for a Starter Allowance event. He grades out second by TrackWiz rating at 83.54 and wins 19.59% of our sims — right in the conversation for the top of the ticket.

Come Full Circle may be the most underrated horse on the board here: he's placed in five consecutive races and has two wins in eight tries on dirt. He carries a 50% career in-the-money rate and his TrackWiz rating of 81.69 ranks third in the field. At 4/1, he's not a screaming overlay, but five straight in-the-money finishes is exactly the kind of consistent form profile that holds up in exotics.

A Little At First has five consecutive in-the-money finishes and has placed in five of his last six races overall — that's the kind of relentless consistency that keeps horses in the exacta. He owns the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 12.00 sec/furlong and carries a 22% career win rate. Javier Castellano is a Grade A jockey, and trainer Horacio De Paz grades out A-. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's essentially co-favored and the place bet looks very solid.

Jaxer brings a 33% career win rate and a 66% in-the-money figure — matching Coach Ryan's win rate across a larger sample — and has placed in two of his last three races. His recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.25 sec/furlong, and H. Graham Motion, one of the top turf trainers on the East Coast, saddles him. At 6/1, Jaxer is a natural show play and a sensible exacta partner with either of the top two picks.

Lady Justice brings Flavien Prat — a 29% win rate over the past year, among the best on the grounds — and ranks second by TrackWiz rating at 55.0. The TrackWiz model also flags Prat as appearing on today's Top 50 Jockeys list, reinforcing the connections angle. She has no race speed figure on record, which limits the form analysis to workout indicators, but at 4/1 with Prat up and a top trainer-level grade on connections, she fits neatly into the place slot.

Frostburg posted the fastest recent race speed figure in the entire field — 11.85 sec/furlong — and has placed in her only recent start, logging a 100% in-the-money rate from that limited sample. Javier Castellano, an A-graded jockey, takes the mount. She's rated third in the field at 54.17 and wins 15.16% of our simulations, making her a legitimate contender despite a quiet 9/2 morning line. For a wide turf maiden, she's an easy show play and a natural third leg of a trifecta.