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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — November 12, 2026

November 12, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Best bets at Belmont Park today

Race 13Stream ItML 8/512:40 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Belmont Park: our top pick won 19 of 82 races (23%) and finished in the money in 46.

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Stream It is our best bet on the free portion of today's card — the maiden claimer tops Race 1 with the fastest recent pace figure in the field (12.54 sec/furlong) and clocks in at a 34.75% simulation win rate, all at a very playable 8/5 morning line. That's exactly the kind of edge we're looking for to open a card.

Now for the scene: Belmont is running in the rain today, 86°F, which is an unusual late-autumn combo. Keep an eye on how the dirt is playing — a wet, sealed strip can favor horses with early speed, while a cuppy or sloppy surface can flip the script entirely. With three turf races also on the card, watch for any surface changes as conditions develop through the afternoon.

Eight races in all, spread across dirt and turf, ranging from maiden claiming sprints to a 1¼-mile turf allowance. There's plenty to dig into — including a couple of standouts with strong jockey-trainer connection numbers that our analysis flagged across the full card.

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Race 1

12:40 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An all-maiden claiming mile on the dirt with a massive rating gap at the top — Stream It's 89.12 towers over the rest of this field, but Blue Mountains and Senior Lender offer legitimate pace-and-price alternatives in what could be a wide-open supporting cast.

win3Stream ItML 8/5

Stream It is the clear top-rated horse in this field at 89.12, ranking first by a significant margin, and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed among all entrants at 12.54 sec/furlong. The Jose Lezcano and Linda Rice combo is a potent angle here — that pairing has hit at a 26% win rate and placed in 70% of races over the past year, which is a strong collaboration in a maiden claiming spot. TrackWiz sims had Stream It winning 34.75% of 10,000 runs, by far the highest mark in the field. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the figures and connections justify the favoritism.

place6Blue MountainsML 5/1

Blue Mountains checks in as the second-ranked horse by TrackWiz rating at 57.0 and shows the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.84 sec/furlong. Samuel Marin has posted a 23% win rate and placed in 59% of races over the past year, a solid book for a maiden claimer. The 143-day layoff is worth noting — connections may simply be using this race to get the horse tight — but the raw speed figures and trainer Linda Rice's A-grade keep this one squarely on the ticket.

show8Senior LenderML 4/1

Senior Lender brings the most elite connections in the race with trainer Chad C. Brown and jockey Flavien Prat, whose combo has clicked at a remarkable 32% win rate and placed in 77% of races together over the past year. Prat himself sits at 29% wins over the last year and appears on today's Top 50 Jockeys list, so the talent is unquestionable. The concern is a pedestrian recent speed figure ranking sixth in the field at 13.42 sec/furlong, which is the main reason this one slots into show rather than a higher spot — but in exotics, that Brown-Prat combo is too good to leave off the ticket entirely.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Stream It35%
6Blue Mountains14%
8Senior Lender14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 1 is where the free card starts and ends today, and Stream It makes a compelling case. Beyond the top speed figure, the jockey riding lands a 17% win rate and hit the board in over half of all starts over the past year — steady, reliable numbers for a rider in a maiden claiming spot where experience matters. The 8/5 morning line is fair, and our simulation puts the actual win probability closer to 34.75%, which suggests modest but real overlay value. In a race with no dominant pace scenario defined, early pace efficiency — which Stream It's speed figure supports — could be the separator.

The wet dirt today is worth factoring into your ticket. If the surface plays fast and sealed, front-runners and horses with clean recent speed numbers get a bump. Stream It's profile fits that scenario well. One free race, one clear play — that's the spot.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:10 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt where Term Premium's top TrackWiz rating of 77.06 sets up a likely pace clash with Tap Rules, who posted the best recent speed figure in the field — the battle between figures and connections makes this a compelling handicapping puzzle.

win2Term PremiumML 2/1

Term Premium tops the TrackWiz ratings at 77.06 and brings the most powerful connections in the race — Flavien Prat and Chad C. Brown, whose combination has won 32% and hit the board 77% of the time over the past year. The horse has placed in two of three starts on dirt, showing surface affinity that matters in a maiden field. Our sims had Term Premium winning 27.68% of 10,000 runs, the highest in the field, and while the recent speed figure ranks only fourth, the overall profile makes this the right side to be on.

place5Valentine CrusaderML 4/1

Valentine Crusader is a legitimate threat at 4/1 on the morning line with the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.00 sec/furlong, matching the fastest workout figure as well. The horse has placed in two of three dirt starts and owns a solid 66% in-the-money mark — an encouraging profile for a maiden. The main knock is coming off a race where the horse didn't place, and the absence of Lasix while six rivals are using it is a flag worth monitoring, but the speed figures and dirt record make Valentine Crusader a strong place contender.

show8Tap RulesML 9/5

Tap Rules actually owns the best recent race speed figure in this field at 11.90 sec/furlong, ranking first among all entrants — that's a legitimate standout number. Manuel Franco takes the mount, and the Franco/Clement combination has connected at 25% wins and 71% in-the-money over the past year, which is a productive partnership. The 9/5 morning line makes Tap Rules a short-priced show pick, but in exacta and trifecta coverage, that blistering speed figure and sharp connections demand inclusion.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Term Premium28%
8Tap Rules22%
5Valentine Crusader20%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:40 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile starter allowance on the turf with Salt Spartan holding a commanding rating advantage at 88.33 over a competitive field that includes Coach Case at 84.90 — the top two are well clear of the rest, setting up a probable battle between the favorite and a live second choice.

win2Salt SpartanML 6/5

Salt Spartan heads into this starter allowance as the top-rated horse at 88.33 and comes in with the momentum of placing in three consecutive races — that kind of recent form consistency is exactly what you want to back in an allowance spot. Flavien Prat is as good as it gets in the irons, posting a 29% win rate over the past year, and trainer Richard Dutrow brings an A- grade to the table. The one concern is a workout ranking of eighth in the field at 12.83 sec/furlong, suggesting the horse may not be at a peak physical sharpness — but the recent race form more than compensates, and our sims had Salt Spartan winning 36.18% of 10,000 runs.

place6Coach CaseML 9/2

Coach Case is legitimately dangerous here at 9/2 on the morning line, ranking second in the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 and posting the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.03 sec/furlong. The Marin-Clement combination is an underrated angle — that duo has hit at a 35% win rate and placed in 61% of races over the past year, which is a sharp pairing. Coach Case's 60% career in-the-money rate reinforces this horse as a reliable ticket piece rather than a speculative stab.

show3DilielloML 4/1

Diliello ranks third in this field's TrackWiz ratings at 63.12 and brings the single best recent race speed figure in the entire field at 11.69 sec/furlong — that's a standout number that shouldn't be overlooked. The turf record is legitimately strong: two wins and placed in six of nine races on the grass surface, which is real form on today's going. Ranked first in workouts over the last month as well, Diliello arrives fit and ready, making this a credible show play with some upside.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Salt Spartan36%
6Coach Case21%
3Diliello15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:10 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Nine maidens go to post over 6½ furlongs on the turf, with Rockabye holding the top TrackWiz rating at 84.90 — a substantial edge over the field — but Blazing Beauty's blistering recent speed figure and the Chad Brown duo of Shared Ambition and Ready Set Roll complicate the form.

win4RockabyeML 9/2

Rockabye is the class of this field on the TrackWiz model at 84.90, ranking first by a wide margin, and backs that up with the second-fastest recent race speed at 11.61 sec/furlong. The Samuel Marin and Miguel Clement tandem is one of the more productive combos on the grounds — 35% wins and 61% in-the-money over the past year is an outstanding stat for a maiden turf race. The 75% career in-the-money rate for Rockabye provides further confidence, and our sims had this one winning 25.14% of 10,000 runs. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's a small overlay here relative to the top rating.

place3Blazing BeautyML 5/2

Blazing Beauty owns the fastest recent race speed figure in the entire field at 11.50 sec/furlong — a legitimately eye-catching number that commands respect. The horse has placed in one of one recent starts and carries a 100% career in-the-money mark, admittedly over a small sample. Antonio Fresu has connected at a 21% win rate over the past year, and the main concern is a workout ranking of ninth in the field at 12.58 sec/furlong, suggesting the blazing race speed hasn't been replicated between starts — but that speed figure alone keeps this one firmly in the exotics.

show8Shared AmbitionML 5/1

Shared Ambition represents the second Chad Brown entry in this race and immediately draws attention — the Brown-Prat combination has won 32% and placed in 77% of races over the past year, one of the best trainer-jockey stats you'll find anywhere. Prat himself is on today's Top 50 Jockeys list and owns a 29% win rate. The horse lacks recent speed figure data, so there's some uncertainty about current form, but when Chad Brown and Flavien Prat show up in a maiden turf race, they're never easy to dismiss regardless of price.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Rockabye25%
3Blazing Beauty19%
8Shared Ambition12%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

2:41 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming race where the top TrackWiz rating belongs to Tenebris at 80.5, but the intriguing story is Bootleg Runner lurking at 15/1 on the morning line with a rating good enough for second place — wide open underneath with multiple age-related concerns scattered through the field.

win3TenebrisML 6/1

Tenebris tops the TrackWiz ratings at 80.5 in this claiming field and brings the most extensive dirt form of anyone in the race — nine wins in 42 dirt starts, placing in 24 of those, is a legitimate body of work. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart gets an A-grade and the horse's recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.48 sec/furlong. The only real flag is age — at eight years old, this horse is past the typical prime — but the class and experience edge over this field still makes Tenebris the most logical win selection.

place8Bootleg RunnerML 15/1

Here's the value angle of the race: Bootleg Runner checks in at 15/1 on the morning line yet ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 69.58 — that's a significant discrepancy between the public perception and our model's assessment. The horse has placed in two of three starts at six furlongs and shows a 23% career win rate with three dirt wins in 13 tries. The recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.48 sec/furlong, essentially matching Tenebris on that metric. Our sims had Bootleg Runner winning 9.17% of 10,000 runs — not dominant, but far more than a 15/1 price implies. This is a prime value target for exactas and trifectas.

show1Kid BillyML 4/1

Kid Billy is a logical show piece here, bringing genuine distance-and-surface credentials that stand out — three wins and placed in nine of 14 dirt starts, plus two wins and placed in seven of nine at the six-furlong distance specifically. That's the kind of form-fit you want in a claiming race at this trip. Rocco Bowen has posted a 23% win rate and 65% in-the-money mark over the past year, and the recent speed figure ranking is the main concern at eighth in the field. The age flag (six years old) is a legitimate worry, but Kid Billy's familiarity with this surface and distance keeps it squarely in the show slot.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Tenebris19%
5Unbroken Chain18%
1Kid Billy17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Ganderella enters this maiden turf mile as a heavy favorite with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and four consecutive in-the-money finishes — the question isn't whether this one is the best horse, it's whether Zap That Ghost or Vicked can run it down.

win6GanderellaML 9/5

Ganderella is the standout in this maiden field, rating first at 88.83 and separating clearly from the competition. The recent form is impeccable — placed in four consecutive races — and the horse posts the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.16 sec/furlong. Flavien Prat rides, and his 29% win rate over the past year is among the best in the jockey colony. Our sims had Ganderella winning 34.21% of 10,000 runs, by far the highest in the field. The 80% career in-the-money rate seals the case — this is a deserving favorite.

place3Zap That GhostML 4/1

Zap That Ghost rates second in the TrackWiz model at 67.42 and shows the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.30 sec/furlong, making this horse a legitimate threat to Ganderella's hegemony. Antonio Fresu has posted a 21% win rate and placed in 60% of races over the past year, solid numbers for a maiden event. The horse has only placed in one of four career starts, so there's some inconsistency in the form, but the speed figures and rating suggest a horse that belongs on the board in this spot.

show4VickedML 5/2

Vicked occupies the morning line's third position at 5/2 and ranks third in the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5, providing a logical show anchor for trifecta builders. The 50% career in-the-money mark is encouraging, and Johnny Velazquez bringing an 18% win rate over the past year adds some name-brand credibility. The horse doesn't offer a flashy angle, but in a race where the top two are clearly superior, Vicked's consistency and reasonable price make it the most sensible show candidate in the field.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Ganderella34%
3Zap That Ghost19%
4Vicked17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

3:43 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

A 1¼-mile turf allowance optional claiming with Stand the Rain carrying a dominant 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a productive Franco/Clement connection — the deeper question is whether Tiz the Lady or Toes can challenge on figures and form.

win4Stand the RainML 5/2

Stand the Rain holds the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81 and comes equipped with one of the stronger jockey-trainer pairings on the grounds — Manuel Franco and Miguel Clement have combined for a 25% win rate and 71% in-the-money over the past year. Franco himself posts a 25% win rate over that same stretch. The recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.28 sec/furlong, which is competitive without being dominant, and the 40% in-the-money career rate leaves some room for improvement — but the model's confidence is reflected in a 26.19% sim win rate across 10,000 runs. This is the right horse at the right distance.

place7Tiz the LadyML 6/1

Tiz the Lady is the second-ranked horse in the TrackWiz model at 72.55 and posts the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.26 sec/furlong — essentially matching Stand the Rain's figure on that metric. The workout ranking of second in the field at 12.18 sec/furlong suggests this horse is arriving fit, and trainer Claude McGaughey earns an A- grade. The 37% career in-the-money rate isn't stellar, but at 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for exacta and trifecta coverage as the most likely closer to track down the top pick.

show3ToesML 7/2

Toes owns the best recent race speed figure in this entire field at 12.19 sec/furlong and also tops the workout rankings over the last month at 11.75 sec/furlong — both metrics point to a horse arriving in top condition. The concern is two consecutive out-of-the-money finishes, which tempers enthusiasm for a win bet. But at 7/2 on the morning line, Toes represents legitimate show value with the possibility of overperforming — Antonio Fresu has won at a 21% clip over the past year, and a sharp trainer in Neil Drysdale provides class.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Stand the Rain26%
3Toes18%
7Tiz the Lady14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

4:14 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claiming contest where Sociably Johnny tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.51 but Monte Avi lurks as a close second at 84.90 with the best recent race speed and workouts in the field — this shapes up as a two-horse battle with real intrigue underneath.

win1Sociably JohnnyML 3/1

Sociably Johnny leads the TrackWiz ratings in this claiming field at 86.51 and brings a productive partnership with trainer Linda Rice — the Lezcano/Rice combination has connected at a 26% win rate and placed in 70% of races over the past year. The horse has placed in five of nine dirt starts, showing surface reliability, and our sims had Sociably Johnny winning 23.46% of 10,000 runs, the highest mark in the field. The workout ranking of seventh is a mild concern, but the overall profile — top rating, strong connections, and dirt form — makes this the most defensible win pick in the race.

place8Monte AviML 9/2

Monte Avi presents a fascinating duel with the top pick — this horse owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.58 sec/furlong AND the top workout mark over the last month at 11.97 sec/furlong, which is a double arrow pointing to a sharp performance. The Fresu/Hennig connection is solid, with Fresu posting a 21% win rate over the past year. The 31% career in-the-money rate is on the lower side, but the peak figures argue for a big effort today. At 9/2 on the morning line and with a 17.55% sim win rate, Monte Avi is a compelling exacta partner.

show2WhitbyML 9/2

Whitby occupies the third spot in the TrackWiz ratings at 78.06 and comes into this race with consecutive in-the-money finishes — a quietly positive momentum angle in a claiming field. The recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.73 sec/furlong, consistent with a horse that rates well on the board. The main concern is that Whitby is 1.3 years older than the field average, introducing a natural age-related worry. Still, the recent form streak and solid rating make this a reasonable show play and a natural trifecta include.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Sociably Johnny23%
8Monte Avi18%
2Whitby17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Stream It in Race 1 is the free card's top play — best speed figure, solid jockey numbers, and a sim win probability that beats the morning line. For the full eight-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket builds, premium analysis is ready for subscribers. Don't handicap this card blind — the rain changes everything, and we've done the work. Check out /pricing to unlock it all.

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