Daily Picks

Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — November 8, 2026

November 8, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Best bets at Belmont Park today

Race 11Rhythm RiotML 15/112:40 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

Rhythm Riot at 15/1 in Race 1 is the free best bet to open today's Belmont card — a horse ranked 2nd for recent race speed who has hit the board in every dirt start of his career. At that morning line, you're getting real value on a horse that our simulations peg at a 17.31% win probability. That's the kind of overlay that makes handicapping fun.

Now for the scene: it's a warm, partly cloudy Sunday at Belmont Park — 89 degrees and eight races on the slate spanning dirt and turf, from a quick 6½-furlong turf sprint in Race 5 all the way out to 1⅛ miles in Race 2. The heat is worth noting for horses who've been training in cooler weather, and that soft turf can play differently late in the day as foot traffic adds up.

The card has a little of everything — maiden claiming, maiden special weight, allowance optional claiming, and straight claiming company — which means the class questions are as important as the speed figures today. Plenty of angles to attack.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:40 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A three-horse race on paper, but the morning line tells a very different story than the TrackWiz ratings — the 1/9 favorite is NOT the top-rated horse, creating a potential overlay situation worth watching at the windows.

win1Rhythm RiotML 15/1

Rhythm Riot opens at a generous 15/1 on the morning line yet sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 61.57, outpointing the heavy favorite Hullabaloo Ray Ray (60.00) by a slim margin. The key angle here is recent race speed — Rhythm Riot clocks in second in the field at 12.22 sec/furlong, and has gone a perfect 3-for-3 in the money on dirt, the surface we're running on today. A 33% career win rate is nothing to sneeze at, and trainer Jorge Delgado earns an 'A' grade. The one flag is the claiming price bump from $75K to $110K, so there's a class question, but the raw numbers suggest this price is way too big.

place3Hullabaloo Ray RayML 1/9

Hullabaloo Ray Ray is the overwhelming public choice at 1/9 and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.73 sec/furlong — that's a meaningful edge in raw pace. Trainer Thomas F. Proctor gets an 'A' grade, and the horse is a perfect 3-for-3 in the money. At those odds, though, you're essentially only playing this horse in exotics, and TrackWiz sims give it a 45% win probability — roughly in line with the odds.

show2Its Saturday NightML 6/1

Its Saturday Night at 6/1 brings a 50% career win rate to the table and has hit the board in two straight, showing consistent form. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche has posted an 18% win rate and 49% in-the-money rate over the past year. The horse slots in third in our sim model at 20% — meaningfully above its morning line probability — making it an interesting piece in exacta and trifecta tickets.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Hullabaloo Ray Ray45%
2Its Saturday Night20%
1Rhythm Riot17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 1 is the one open to all TrackWiz readers, and Rhythm Riot is the play. The 15/1 morning line almost certainly reflects some public skepticism about the "unproven" run style, but the dirt record — 1 win and placed in 3 of 3 tries on the surface — tells a different story. When a horse shows up consistently on a specific surface, that's a pattern worth trusting. The speed profile backs it up, ranking 2nd in the field at 12.22 seconds per furlong in recent efforts. In an allowance optional claiming mile on dirt, that combination of surface affinity and competitive speed is a legitimate angle, not just wishful thinking.

If you're only playing one race today and not a subscriber, this is the one to circle. The overlay at 15/1 versus a sim win percentage north of 17% is exactly the type of edge TrackWiz analysis is built to surface.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:10 PM EST

Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A wide-open 1 1/8-mile turf claimer where the TrackWiz ratings are bunched at the top — Twirly's 87.08 leads a cluster of four horses rated between 64 and 66, suggesting this race could easily go multiple ways.

win6TwirlyML 3/1

Twirly is the class of this field on the numbers, sitting at a 87.08 TrackWiz rating — a full 21 points clear of the second-ranked horse. The horse leads the field in recent race speed at 12.36 sec/furlong and has hit the board in three straight, showing steady form. Manuel Franco in the irons is a major plus — he's posted a 24% win rate and 64% in-the-money rate over the past year and is one of the top pilots in the game. The main concern is the claiming price jump from $40K to $50K, so it's stepping up in class, and workouts over the past month have been a bit pedestrian at 12.66 sec/furlong (sixth in the field). Still, with a 26% sim win share, this is the horse to beat.

place8Raging BloomML 5/2

Raging Bloom comes in with momentum — the horse won its last start on October 14th, and the second-best recent race speed in the field at 12.45 sec/furlong backs up that form. The concern is a claiming price increase from $30K to $40K and a Jockey/Horse combo that's only hit the board 37% of the time. That said, an 18% sim win share on a horse priced at 5/2 on the morning line represents fair value.

show5Livin the BreezeML 7/2

Livin the Breeze checks in third on the TrackWiz rating list at 65.53 and brings a solid 50% in-the-money rate along with a record of 1 win and 3 placements in 6 turf starts — genuine surface affinity. Jockey Samuel Marin has a 23% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate over the past year. The one wrinkle is that Livin the Breeze is not on Lasix while six others in this field are, which is worth noting as a potential stamina concern at this distance.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Twirly26%
8Raging Bloom18%
5Livin the Breeze17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:40 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Chad Brown saddles two of the three top-rated horses in this maiden special weight turf route, giving the barn a stranglehold on the race — the question is which Brown horse fires first, and whether anyone else can crash the party.

win1HypnoticaML 5/2

Hypnotica is the top-rated horse in the field at 85.56 and pairs the barn's best trainer grade (A) with one of the best jockeys on the grounds — Flavien Prat, who has won 29% of his rides and hit the board 66% of the time over the past year. The Prat/Brown combo is even more impressive, connecting at a 32% win rate and 76% in-the-money rate together. Second-best recent race speed in the field at 12.03 sec/furlong adds to the case, and TrackWiz sims give Hypnotica a 33% win share. It's a maiden with no career wins to show yet, but the connections and figures suggest a breakthrough is close.

place4CandidlyML 7/2

Candidly is the second Brown horse in here and ranks second in the field at a 55.83 TrackWiz rating, with Manuel Franco booked — a jockey who has hit at 24% and placed at 64% over the past year. The Brown/Franco combo connects at 23% wins and 67% in the money. There's no published avg speed figure in the data, suggesting limited race history, so this may be a relatively lightly raced horse with upside — but the workout clock (ranked 7th at 12.46 sec/furlong) is a mild concern.

show6IfweonlyhaveloveML 4/1

Ifweonlyhavelove lands third in the ratings at 55.00 with Javier Castellano up — an A-minus jockey who gives any horse a boost. Trainer Miguel Clement earns an A-minus grade as well, so the connections are strong even if the horse has been off the board in its most recent start. At 4/1 on the morning line and a 14% sim win share, it rounds out a logical trifecta combination in a race that projects to be dominated by well-bred, well-connected horses.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Hypnotica33%
6Ifweonlyhavelove14%
4Candidly14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:10 PM EST

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The public will load up on the two short-priced favorites — Hot Property and Franklin Delano — but the TrackWiz ratings tell a more interesting story, with Chris's Song lurking at 8/1 and carrying the second-best rating in the field.

win6Hot PropertyML 7/5

Hot Property is the top-rated horse in the field at 79.55 and leads the field in recent race speed at 12.38 sec/furlong — that's the kind of combination that tends to hold up at the wire. Manuel Franco rides, bringing a 24% win rate and a 29% win rate with trainer Linda Rice specifically, one of the stronger trainer-jockey combos on the grounds. The one real concern is a four-race losing streak in the money, so the form has been rough lately. Still, a 30% sim win share in a six-horse field is hard to argue with, and the raw speed and connections keep this as the top selection.

place1Chris's SongML 8/1

Chris's Song opens at a generous 8/1 yet sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 75.45 — a significant overlay if the market underestimates this horse. Second-best recent race speed in the field at 12.40 sec/furlong and in-the-money finishes in two straight races show the form is trending the right way. Trainer Richard E. Dutrow Jr. earns an A-minus grade, and jockey Antonio Fresu has hit at 21% and placed at 60% over the past year. The claiming price bump from $35K to $40K is noted, but the numbers suggest this horse is priced too generously.

show5Private FlightML 12/1

Private Flight at 12/1 is a live longshot angle — the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 73.96 on a horse that's placed in 5 of 10 starts on dirt and 3rd in recent race speed at 12.55 sec/furlong. Trainer Roshan Samsundar gets an A grade, which is a strong mark. The concern is a big claiming price jump from $20K to $35K, plus only 24 days of rest when this horse performs better on 30 or more days. It's a legitimate question, but at 12/1, you're getting compensated for the risk in multi-race exotics.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Hot Property30%
4Franklin Delano22%
1Chris's Song18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:41 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Munny Problem enters as a heavy favorite by the numbers, but this 6.5-furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers has several horses with legitimate win chances — including a couple of overlays that could pay handsomely in exactas.

win1Munny ProblemML 5/2

Munny Problem is the clear top pick, sitting at an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and boasting the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.88 sec/furlong. The consistency angle is real — this horse has hit the board in 4 of its last 6 starts and is coming off two consecutive in-the-money finishes, the kind of form cycle that often leads to a breakthrough win. Javier Castellano is an A-minus jockey who doesn't take mounts without intent, and TrackWiz sims gave Munny Problem a 29% win share in a nine-horse field. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the form.

place5Frenchquarter NoteML 3/1

Frenchquarter Note rates second at 72.93 and delivers the third-fastest recent race speed (12.15 sec/furlong) while also ranking second among the field in workout times over the past month at 12.13 sec/furlong — the horse is training sharply and running well. Trainer George Weaver is a solid B-minus, and Edgard Zayas has the mount. The sim model gives this horse a 20% win share at 3/1 on the morning line, suggesting fair value — an exacta underneath Munny Problem makes a lot of sense here.

show6Turbo LaunchML 6/1

Turbo Launch slots in third at a 71.46 TrackWiz rating and brings Manuel Franco — a 24% win-rate jockey — to the irons, which is a meaningful upgrade in class of ride. The horse has been consistent, hitting the board in 4 of its last 6 starts, and workout times have been solid (third in the field at 12.31 sec/furlong). The concern is a substantial claiming price jump from $30K to $55K. That's a significant class hike for a maiden claimer, so there's a question of whether the connections are using this race as a placement spot or going for the win.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Munny Problem29%
5Frenchquarter Note20%
7Eske Castle18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Chad Brown loads up with three horses in this 12-runner maiden turf mile, but Sellonthenews, Inflect, and Hypnotica — er, wait, it's a stacked field either way — making this a trainer-dominance race where the Brown barn threatens to run 1-2.

win4SellonthenewsML 2/1

Sellonthenews is the top-rated horse in this 12-horse field at 58.33 and comes in with a perfect in-the-money streak in the last two races, showing form is building. Manuel Franco rides for the Chad Brown barn — a trainer-jockey combination that hits at 23% wins and 67% in the money over the past year, one of the most reliable pairings at the meet. Franco himself has won 24% of his rides and placed at 64% over the past year. The main concern is workout times ranked 10th in the field at 12.41 sec/furlong, suggesting the horse may not be at peak sharpness, but the race-day form profile and connections carry the day at 2/1.

place11InflectML 5/2

Inflect is the other Brown entrant worth highlighting — it ranks second in the field at a 57.50 TrackWiz rating and flashes the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at an impressive 11.52 sec/furlong. Flavien Prat rides, and the Prat/Brown combination is the best in the barn at 32% wins and 76% in the money. If Sellonthenews underperforms, Inflect is the natural fallback, and with a 21% sim win share, this horse is very much in the conversation for the top spot on its own merits.

show1Royal VictoriaML 8/1

Royal Victoria opens at 8/1 and brings a clean profile for a maiden — placed in its last start, hit the board in its only race, and ranks third in the field in recent race speed at 12.15 sec/furlong. Antonio Fresu rides for trainer William Mott, who earns a B-plus grade. At 8/1, Royal Victoria offers meaningful value in the show slot and as a trifecta underneath the Brown horses — the 11% sim win share says it has a real chance, and the price compensates for the uncertainty.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Sellonthenews22%
11Inflect21%
1Royal Victoria11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

3:43 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Time to Win is a heavy 4/5 favorite, and frankly, the numbers back up the public's confidence — this is a race where fading the chalk is a tough sell, though Dreamlike and Secured Landing make logical exotics plays at bigger prices.

win5Time to WinML 4/5

Time to Win is the top-rated horse in the field by a wide margin at 90.00 and leads the field in recent race speed at 12.05 sec/furlong. The Chad Brown/Flavien Prat combination is as good as it gets — Prat wins 29% of his rides and places 66% of the time, and the Brown/Prat duo hits at 32% wins and 76% in the money, which is elite. A 100% in-the-money rate and a 38% sim win share in a six-horse field back up the favorite status. The 4/5 price won't excite anyone, but Time to Win's role here is anchor in exotics rather than a straight win bet.

place4DreamlikeML 5/2

Dreamlike rates second in the field at 83.86 and has posted the third-fastest recent race speed (12.32 sec/furlong) with an impressive 80% in-the-money rate — this horse almost always hits the board. Manuel Franco rides for trainer Linda Rice, and the Franco/Rice combo hits at 29% wins and 64% in the money. The age concern (6 years old) is noted, but the consistency numbers argue that this horse knows its job and keeps finding the board. At 5/2, it's a solid place/show play and exacta partner with the favorite.

show2Secured LandingML 8/1

Secured Landing at 8/1 is the value play in this race — a 76.33 TrackWiz rating (third in the field) and second-fastest recent race speed at 12.10 sec/furlong, all wrapped up in a horse with a 75% in-the-money rate and a 41% career win percentage. The Carmouche/Rice combination has connected at 27% wins and 64% in the money over the past year. At 8/1 against a heavy favorite, Secured Landing is the horse to target in the exacta underneath Time to Win and the trifecta key.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Time to Win38%
4Dreamlike26%
2Secured Landing16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:14 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A 10-horse maiden claiming mile on dirt where the top two horses by TrackWiz rating — Sfumato and Where's Your Boom — are separated by just four points but carry very different morning lines, setting up an interesting battle between the sharp numbers and the public money.

win3SfumatoML 3/1

Sfumato leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.51 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge when projecting who runs the best actual race. William Mott gets a B-plus trainer grade, and Jose Lezcano has hit at 17% and placed at 51% over the past year. The workout profile is strong too, ranking second in the field at 12.00 sec/furlong over the past month. The honest concern is the Jockey/Horse combo, which has only clicked for a 17% win rate — but at 3/1 with the best raw speed numbers and rating, Sfumato looks undervalued relative to the favorite.

place4Where's Your BoomML 9/5

Where's Your Boom opens as the morning line favorite at 9/5, and the case is easy to see — Flavien Prat aboard, a 29% win rate from the saddle, and 4 in-the-money finishes in 7 dirt starts backs up the surface affinity. The TrackWiz model gives this horse a 25% sim win share, slightly behind Sfumato. Trainer Amelia Green earns a B-plus grade. At 9/5, it's a narrower overlay than Sfumato, but Prat's ability to maximize horses in tight spots makes this a strong place/show anchor.

show1True AdirondackerML 6/1

True Adirondacker at 6/1 is the value piece in the exotics — a 76.35 TrackWiz rating (third in the field), two consecutive in-the-money finishes, and a perfect 2-for-2 record at Belmont Park specifically. That course form is a legitimate edge. The claiming price dropped from $35K to $25K, which is a class relief and another positive angle. Trainer Wayne Potts gets a B-plus grade. A 15% sim win share on a 6/1 morning line represents genuine overlay value in the trifecta.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Where's Your Boom25%
3Sfumato22%
1True Adirondacker15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Rhythm Riot is the free play of the day — a legit overlay at 15/1 on a horse with a clean dirt record and competitive speed figures. For the full story on all eight races including Time to Win in Race 7 and the turf exotics strategy, it's all waiting for subscribers. Enjoy the card — and stay hydrated out there. It's a hot one at Belmont.

← All Belmont Park picks & predictions