Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 21, 2026

October 21, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Rain is coming down at Belmont Park today, and that changes everything. With temperatures sitting at a warm 83°F and the wet stuff falling, expect the dirt to play heavy and the pace scenarios to shift in ways that can flip a race on its head. Eight races are on the card, and our TrackWiz models have been grinding through every angle to find the edges that matter on a day like this.

The card leans heavily on dirt — four of the eight races run over the main track — but there are three turf events mixed in, and those surfaces will need monitoring right up until post time. Turf can get pulled in wet weather, converting those races to dirt, which reshuffles the entire field. Keep the TrackWiz app open for any late surface changes before you lock in a ticket.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader, and they're not throwaway sprints — we've got a maiden claiming 7-furlong opener, a one-mile claiming battle, and a juicy 12/1 price worth a serious look in Race 3. The top of the card has some real teeth today.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer split right down the middle — the morning-line favorite Midnight Rocket gets a stiff challenge from two TrackWiz top-rated horses on the outside, making this a three-way battle with a clear value angle buried in the field.

win3Big Time StoryML 5/2

Big Time Story earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.39, edging the chalk despite carrying a longer 5/2 morning line. Flavien Prat is one of the sharpest riders in the country and his presence in the irons on a Linda Rice trainee suggests connections like what they see in the morning. At seven furlongs on the dirt, this is a straightforward setup for a forward-moving maiden with solid average speed figures, and that rating edge over everyone but her stablemate is hard to ignore.

place6Show Me the MunnyML 3/1

Show Me the Munny is essentially a coin flip with the win pick in the TrackWiz model — an 87.08 rating versus 87.39 is razor-thin separation. Also trained by Linda Rice and drawing the six-hole with Manuel Franco up, she gets a clean outside trip with a patient stalking option. In a race where the two top-rated horses share a barn, the exacta connecting them is the obvious play.

show1Midnight RocketML 4/5

Midnight Rocket is the morning-line favorite at 4/5 and trained by Hall of Famer William Mott, which is never a combination to dismiss in a maiden field. The TrackWiz rating of 60 trails the top two by a wide margin, but chalk has a way of pressing the pace in these spots and making life difficult for closers. At minimum, Mott's horse belongs in your exotic tickets as a hedge.

Race 2

5:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Tough Street looks like a class standout in this mile claiming affair, but a 6/5 favorite going a full mile on the dirt always deserves some pressure — and there are two live horses underneath worth framing your tickets around.

win5Tough StreetML 6/5

Tough Street owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.71 and sports a 23% career win rate, which is strong for a claiming horse at this level. Manuel Franco — one of Belmont's most reliable pilots — gets the call for Linda Rice, a barn that consistently fires horses into shape on this circuit. At 6/5, you're not getting rich, but the rating gap over the second choice is meaningful enough to make her the foundation of your ticket.

place1Heavenly LightML 5/2

Heavenly Light posts a 26% career win rate, the highest in the field, and draws the rail with Flavien Prat — a combination that can mean a clean trip right out of the gate in a mile race. Her TrackWiz rating of 80.07 makes her a clear second among our picks, and at 5/2 on the morning line she offers solid each-way value if you're looking to back something with real winning form. She's also a Linda Rice trainee, making a Rice barn exacta a distinct possibility.

show8Thirteen Red FlagsML 10/1

Thirteen Red Flags sits at 10/1 on the morning line but posts a 54.8 TrackWiz rating that clears several horses listed at shorter odds, including the 30/1 and 15/1 shots. A 7% career win rate is modest, but trainer Amira Chichakly keeps this horse competitive at this level, and Antonio Fresu can navigate a mile without burning his mount in the early going. In a field where the top two are closely connected in the same barn, a closer like this makes sense as your trifecta anchor.

Race 3

6:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This mile maiden claimer is a legitimately tricky puzzle — the morning-line favorites don't match up with the top TrackWiz ratings, creating a scenario where the value is sitting well off the pace in the program.

win8Luciana's HonorML 12/1

Luciana's Honor sits at 12/1 on the morning line but leads all entrants with a TrackWiz rating of 66.99 — that kind of disconnect between public perception and model rating is exactly the angle TrackWiz was built to surface. Trainer Mark Hennig knows this circuit well, and Christopher Elliott has been a capable rider when given live mounts. At a mile on the dirt, a horse with these figures has every right to be competitive, and the overlay odds make her the clear win selection.

place7Bombs AwayML 8/1

Bombs Away rates second in the field at 64.79 and goes postward at 8/1 — another overlay if you accept the TrackWiz model's read on this race. Edgard Zayas is a crafty, experienced hand who can find a good spot in the early stages of a mile, and trainer Bruce Levine has a solid track record placing horses where they can succeed. Pairing Bombs Away with Luciana's Honor in the exacta at these prices creates a meaningful potential return.

show4Immaculate MoonML 2/1

Immaculate Moon is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and rates third in our model at 63.55 — so she's no slouch, but she's not the standout her price implies. Trainer Danny Gargan keeps horses fit and ready, and Pedro Pena gives her a professional trip. She's legitimate enough to be underneath in your exotics, but at short odds in a maiden field full of uncertainty, buying her at 2/1 as a show ticket doesn't excite us the way a trifecta play does.

The three free races today span the first three on the program and all run on dirt, which means the wet track is front and center for every one of them. Our TrackWiz ratings point to Tough Street in Race 2 as the strongest free-play pick on the card — an 89.71 rating at 6/5 on the morning line suggests real ability, though the price won't knock you over. The value play of this trio is Luciana's Honor in Race 3, a 12/1 shot in a one-mile maiden claimer whose TrackWiz number (66.99) reflects a competitive field where the favorite isn't a standout. In wet conditions, pace scenarios tighten and closers get opportunities — that's the kind of chaos that lets a price horse sneak through.

Race 1 opener Big Time Story at 5/2 earns an 87.39 rating and looks like a solid foundation for early multi-race wagers. The rain setting up a potentially sealed or sloppy track favors horses with prior off-track experience, and that's a key angle we've factored into all three free picks. Early position could be at a premium today — horses that can find good ground near the front of the pack without burning up early have the edge.

Send me tomorrow's free Belmont Park card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Seven and a half furlongs on the turf at allowance-optional claiming level — this is a competitive spot with multiple horses showing elite win percentages, but one runner's combination of rating and connections puts her firmly on top.

win2Maria CallasML 2/1

Maria Callas carries a 33% career win rate and the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54, both of which demand respect in an allowance turf spot. Chad Brown is the gold standard for grass racing in the Northeast, and Manuel Franco is the kind of rider Brown reaches for when he means business. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's not a screaming value, but the profile — top model score, top trainer, strong winning record — makes her a confident top pick.

place1Disco StarML 5/1

Disco Star rates second in the field at 82.19 and brings a TrackWiz speed figure of 57, tied for the best in the race, with Javier Castellano in the irons — a pairing that rarely wastes a good trip on the Belmont turf. Mark Casse is a Grade I trainer who knows how to spot horses in spots where they can hit the board, and at 5/1 there's genuine value if she finds the front or a ground-saving rail trip. The rating gap between her and the third pick is significant enough to make her a strong each-way play.

show5Sweet AnniversaryML 9/2

Sweet Anniversary owns a 36% career win rate, which is the second-highest figure in this field — that's not the profile of a horse you throw out lightly. She rates at 73.03 in our model and draws Kendrick Carmouche, a savvy turf rider who's had his share of big days at Belmont. At 9/2, she's an affordable trifecta piece with real credibility to hit the board.

Race 5

7:23 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Turf

A starter allowance at six furlongs on the turf — the pace scenario here is intriguing with multiple horses showing sharp speed figures, but one runner's model rating and figures separate him from the pack.

win5Joker On FireML 9/5

Joker On Fire tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 88.83 and posts the highest average speed figure at 58 — a meaningful edge in a turf sprint where every fraction counts. The 9/5 morning line reflects his standing as the clear public choice, and Bruce Levine's barn has been effective placing horses in spots where they can fire. Jose Lezcano is comfortable on the Belmont turf and won't hesitate to put this horse in a winning position early if the pace scenario allows.

place4Sir WaltaML 3/1

Sir Walta rates a strong 82.95 and draws Javier Castellano — the most accomplished jockey in this field — at a very workable 3/1 morning line. Trainer David Duggan is a steady hand who gets horses into form without burning them out, and a 16% career win rate shows Sir Walta knows how to cash. He profiles as the most likely horse to run Joker On Fire down if the pace gets hot early.

show1Dancing BearML 8/1

Dancing Bear brings the second-highest average speed figure in the field at 57, matching the top contenders in pure output, and his 17% career win rate is solid for this class of starter allowance. At 8/1, Kendrick Carmouche gets a live mount that could easily outrun his morning-line odds. He's the kind of horse that gets overlooked on a card with a clear favorite but pops in trifectas — stick him underneath at these prices.

Race 6

7:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

I'm Worthy looks like the most lopsided favorite on the card at 1/2 — a massive TrackWiz rating advantage makes this a question of who finishes second and third, and there's a genuine value angle at 8/1 in the exacta.

win3I'm WorthyML 1/2

I'm Worthy's TrackWiz rating of 90 is the highest mark we'll see on this card all day, and at 1/2 on the morning line the market is already pricing in her dominance. Kendrick Carmouche takes the call for Linda Rice, a combination that's been running hot at this meet, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company understates what should be a class edge here. At a mile and an eighth on the dirt, her stamina and figures make her the clear selection — just don't expect big profits on a straight win bet.

place4Paul's RecoveryML 8/1

Paul's Recovery deserves a long look at 8/1 as an exacta partner with the heavy favorite. He posts a 60.19 TrackWiz rating — second-best in this field — and carries a 16% career win rate that reflects a horse who fires regularly. Trainer Patrick Quick has been competitive at Belmont throughout the meet, and Omar Hernandez Moreno is a capable pilot who can rate a horse through a mile and an eighth without compromising his late kick.

show2Supreme GoodML 6/1

Supreme Good rates 55.71 in our model and shows a 20% career win rate, the highest among the mid-tier contenders in this race. Kenneth McPeek is a well-resourced trainer who travels horses to spots where they can compete, and Christopher Elliott gives the horse a professional ride without overthinking it. At 6/1, he's worth including in your trifectas, particularly in a race where the favorite is likely to draw all the heat.

Race 7

8:31 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Turf

Six furlongs on the turf at allowance level — this is a wide-open sprint with legitimate contenders sprinkled throughout the field, but two horses at the top of the TrackWiz model are pulling away from the rest.

win8AperitifML 5/2

Aperitif leads the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.81, posting an average speed figure of 57 that matches the quickest horses in the race. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse of this caliber, and trainer Elizabeth Merryman clearly has her pointed for a big effort. Antonio Fresu is a pilot who excels in turf sprints and can put a horse in the right position without expending too much early energy — a crucial skill at six furlongs where pace management is everything.

place1ArinataML 7/2

Arinata is one of the most accomplished horses in this field on paper — a 33% career win rate is elite and her TrackWiz rating of 81.48 is a clear second in the model. Flavien Prat rides for Linda Rice, a trainer-jockey combination that shows up to win, and at 7/2 there's real value if Aperitif draws most of the public action. She's a natural pace presser in a sprint and should be right there at the top of the stretch.

show6Vernon ValleyML 9/2

Vernon Valley slots in at 9/2 with a 64.88 TrackWiz rating and draws Jose Lezcano for Hall of Famer Bill Mott — connections that always carry weight. A 16% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and at 56 average speed she matches up well enough to be a factor in the final furlongs. She's an ideal trifecta piece in a race where the top two picks are drawing most of the attention.

Race 8

9:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

An eleven-horse maiden claiming field on the turf at six and a half furlongs — big fields like this breed chaos, but one horse's model rating stands out sharply from the rest of a competitive-looking card.

win7Richies LoveML 3/1

Richies Love tops the TrackWiz model in this field with an 87.08 rating — a comfortable margin over the second-best contender — despite going to post at just 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Michael Miceli has two runners in this race, and when a barn doubles up, it's usually the higher-rated entry that gets the better setup. Kendrick Carmouche is a proven performer on this surface and distance, and that speed figure of 54 is competitive enough to be in the mix throughout.

place2Dinghy BarML 6/1

Dinghy Bar rates second in the field at 66.3, and the combination of Javier Castellano in the irons and a 6/1 morning line makes him an attractive each-way option. Trainer John Terranova keeps horses fresh and competitive at this level, and Castellano's ability to find a ground-saving trip in a full field is a genuine advantage at a distance where positioning matters. In a wide-open maiden turf race, pairing Dinghy Bar underneath Richies Love is the natural exotic construction.

show11Twenty One RedML 9/2

Twenty One Red draws Flavien Prat for George Weaver, and that's a combination worth circling on any card. He rates third in our model at 65.3 and shows an average speed figure of 56 — the highest of our three picks in this race. At 9/2, he's the kind of horse who might drift up in the pools given the size of the field, creating some value for trifecta bettors willing to take a stand.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: today's Belmont card is a wet one, and that means staying sharp and staying flexible. Tough Street in Race 2 is the free-card standout, Luciana's Honor at 12/1 in Race 3 is the longshot to watch, and I'm Worthy in Race 6 demands a closer look before you let a short price make the decision for you. Full analysis on all eight races, complete with pace projections and exotic strategies, is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there — and keep an eye on those turf calls.

← All Belmont Park picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free