Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 15, 2026

October 15, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

It's a warm Thursday afternoon at Belmont Park — 88°F under partly cloudy skies — and the Big Sandy is open for business with an 8-race card that spans dirt sprints, a mile on the main track, and a pair of turf routes. Conditions look good: the kind of late-October warmth that keeps the ground firm and speeds honest.

The card mixes maiden claimers and claiming races early before stepping up in class, and there's genuine interest scattered throughout — including a couple of races where the morning line tells very different stories about how much money might be at risk. Whether you're here to build a bankroll or just looking for a reason to watch the races, there's something to work with today.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, with our full premium breakdown covering the remaining five. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming route on the dirt where the morning-line favorite is far from the highest-rated horse in the field — TrackWiz analysis points to genuine upset potential at the top.

win6Private FlightML 8/1

Private Flight lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 79.79 score despite being sent off at 8/1 on the morning line — that gap between public perception and our model is exactly the kind of overlay we target. Kendrick Carmouche gets the call, and he's a savvy hand around the Belmont oval at any distance. With all horses in this field carrying a career win percentage of zero, the edge goes to the horse who projects best over 1 1/4 miles of dirt, and Private Flight fits that profile. Trainer Roshan Samsundar also has the companion horse in this race, suggesting confidence in the barn's current form.

place7Where's Your BoomML 6/1

Where's Your Boom sits second in our ratings at 77.35 and goes off at 6/1, making this horse a legitimate value play underneath. Samuel Marin has been quietly effective at this meet, and the 6/1 morning line on a horse this highly rated suggests the public may be overlooking her. In a maiden field with no established winners, consistent workmate figures matter — and Where's Your Boom's numbers hold up well against this group.

show1Mr R TML 8/1

Mr R T comes in at 8/1 on the morning line but posts a solid 73.94 TrackWiz rating, third-best in the field, making him a live exotics piece at a juicy price. Christopher Elliott knows the Belmont layout, and trainer Roshan Samsundar having two horses in the same race (the other being our win pick) can work in Mr R T's favor if the connections have a clear read on the track. At the distance and price, he's a sensible third-leg inclusion in any vertical ticket.

Race 2

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs of claiming action on the dirt features a deep, closely matched field — speed figures cluster tightly but our model finds a clear standout flying under the public radar.

win9StewieML 6/1

Stewie tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 — the highest score in this nine-horse field by a meaningful margin — yet the morning line sits at 6/1, which screams value. Manuel Franco in the irons is always a factor at Belmont, and he doesn't take mounts in claiming sprints without reason. The 55 average speed figure ties him with several others in the field, but the model's overall rating reflects a well-rounded profile that grades out ahead of the pack. Don't let the modest career win rate of 14% dissuade you; this looks like a spot where Stewie can outrun that number.

place4Kid BillyML 8/1

Kid Billy rates out at 74.34 and carries a career win percentage of 21% — one of the stronger hit rates in the field. Antonio Fresu has been a dependable rider at this meet, and trainer Rudy R. Rodriguez is well-versed in placing horses in the right spots at the claiming level. The 8/1 morning line makes Kid Billy an attractive underneath play in exactas and trifectas, particularly if Stewie clears from the front.

show2Trust IssuesML 9/2

Trust Issues checks in with a 72.62 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage, slotting neatly into the third spot on our ticket. The 9/2 morning line is fair but not generous, so the show position is the right way to use this horse — solid enough to hit the board, priced right for multi-race ticket construction. Reylu Gutierrez provides competent front-end guidance, and trainer Gregory E. Charlerie has shown a consistent ability to spot horses in appropriate claiming company.

Race 3

6:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

This allowance optional claiming mile and a sixteenth on the turf is dominated by a single powerhouse — the question isn't who wins, but who can sneak into the exacta behind a heavy favorite.

win2Risk ToleranceML 2/5

Risk Tolerance is the most dominant horse on today's entire card by our model, posting a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — and a 33% career win percentage backs that up with real results. Flavien Prat is as good as it gets at this level, and Chad C. Brown's turf operation at Belmont is historically elite. The 2/5 morning line is short, but this is the kind of horse you respect rather than bet against — when the rating gap is this large, you play the win and build your exotics around it.

place6EnergizeML 8/1

Energize at 8/1 is our value play for second money, rated 66.12 by TrackWiz and sitting well clear of the remaining field behind Risk Tolerance. A 12% career win rate isn't flashy, but Antonio Fresu is capable of getting the most out of a turf horse around two turns. If you're playing exactas, Energize underneath the favorite at morning-line odds of 8/1 offers meaningful payout potential.

show1Sherlock's JewelML 9/2

Sherlock's Jewel grades as the third-best horse in the field at 65.48 and carries a solid 24% career win percentage — the highest among the supporting cast. Kendrick Carmouche is a reliable turf pilot who keeps horses in good position, and trainer Joe Sharp knows how to get horses ready to fire on the green. Sherlock's Jewel is a logical show bet and a reasonable trifecta anchor in the third slot.

Our three free previews today cover the first three races on the card — a 1¼-mile maiden claimer on dirt, a 6-furlong claiming sprint, and an allowance optional claimer on the turf. That's a nice variety of surfaces and distances to get a feel for how the track is playing early. Keep an eye on the turf course in Race 3, where Risk Tolerance opens at a short 2/5 on the morning line — that kind of price usually means the connections are confident, and our TrackWiz rating of 90 backs it up as the strongest number we've assigned all day.

Earlier on, Private Flight (Race 1, 8/1 ML) and Stewie (Race 2, 6/1 ML) both offer overlay potential if the crowd underestimates them — and TrackWiz analysis has both rated competitively for their respective fields. The warm weather and firm footing should favor horses that want to roll early on the dirt, so pace scenario will be worth watching as the card unfolds.

Send me tomorrow's free Belmont Park card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:49 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The starter optional claiming sprint sets up as a two-horse race on paper, but a sneaky overlay at 8/1 could turn the exacta into a big-priced ticket — pace will be a factor here.

win5Math TutorML 9/5

Math Tutor is the class of this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — more than 19 points clear of the next-best horse — and Manuel Franco is a perfect fit atop this type at Belmont. The 9/5 morning line reflects legitimate favoritism, but the rating edge is real. Over six furlongs, a horse that averages 55 on the speed figure scale and rates this cleanly against a starter optional claiming group should be tough to beat. Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci has positioned Math Tutor in an ideal spot.

place1Disparate ImpactML 8/1

Disparate Impact is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 69.41 and brings a 20% career win percentage into this spot — the kind of consistent performer you want in your exacta. The 8/1 morning line makes this a genuinely attractive overlay for a horse who grades this clearly as the second-best entrant. Jose Lezcano rides for Marcelo Arenas and knows how to save ground around Belmont in a sprint.

show6Sea VistaML 3/1

Sea Vista posts a 55.93 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate, rounding out a logical top three. Ricardo Santana, Jr. is one of the meet's most effective pilots and gives any horse a bump in competitive value. At 3/1 on the morning line, Sea Vista isn't a huge overlay in the show position, but the combination of a capable jockey and solid rating makes this horse a reasonable third-leg inclusion in trifecta tickets.

Race 5

7:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A six-and-a-half furlong claiming battle features a standout at the top of the market, but several mid-priced entrants set up a lively exacta picture below the likely favorite.

win1Ancient WorldML 6/5

Ancient World is the most accomplished horse in this field, posting a 42% career win percentage — by far the highest among all nine entrants — alongside a 89.71 TrackWiz rating that sits atop the field comfortably. Manuel Franco takes the mount, which is never a negative, and trainer Linda Rice knows how to place horses in situations where they can win. At 6/5 on the morning line, Ancient World is a deserving chalk play — back this one with confidence and build your exotics around it.

place7Apollo CodeML 5/1

Apollo Code comes in at 5/1 on the morning line with a 69.31 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win percentage — a horse with measurable ability that may be underrated by the market. Camila Hargrove is an aggressive rider who can keep a horse rolling on the front end in a sprint, and trainer Raymond Handal has spotted this one in a potentially favorable spot. If Ancient World softens the pace, Apollo Code has the profile to grab second money at a rewarding price.

show2TenebrisML 6/1

Tenebris sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 65.73 with a 21% career win percentage, making this horse a logical board presence in a nine-horse field. The 6/1 morning line reflects modest public interest, but the rating supports a more prominent role in the outcome. Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. is a capable hand in these spots, and Tenebris looks like a solid show-position hedge and trifecta piece.

Race 6

7:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A large maiden claiming field on the turf is a handicapper's puzzle — all first-time or non-winners of a race, spread thin on speed figures, making trainer and jockey angles critically important.

win7Motorcycle CopML 7/2

Motorcycle Cop tops our TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 with Manuel Franco in the irons — and that jockey booking alone is a meaningful signal in a wide-open maiden turf field. Trainer Rob Atras has a sharp eye for placing lightly-raced horses in spots where they can fire first off the form, and an average speed figure of 52 is respectable in this company. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and with Franco navigating a mile and a sixteenth on the grass, Motorcycle Cop projects as the most well-rounded runner in the field.

place3Epic PrayerML 4/1

Epic Prayer rates second at 55.0 and gets the services of Flavien Prat — arguably the best turf rider in the country right now — which is a powerful combination at any odds. Trainer Amelia J. Green also saddles Papa Brez in this race, but the Prat booking tells you where the barn's confidence lies. At 4/1, Epic Prayer is a legitimate exacta threat and a horse to keep safe on all tickets.

show4CuylleML 6/1

Cuylle posts a 53.29 TrackWiz rating and grades out third in the field, with an average speed figure of 54 that suggests some turf ability is already present. Ruben Silvera is a capable turf pilot who can find pace scenarios and get horses home, and trainer Rachael Keithan has shown a willingness to run horses in the right conditions. At 6/1 on the morning line, Cuylle is a fair value inclusion as the third leg of a trifecta in this unpredictable maiden field.

Race 7

8:31 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance mile on the dirt features a massive gap between our top-rated horse and the morning-line favorite — the public loves Tuning In, but TrackWiz analysis says the value is elsewhere.

win5Calling CardML 5/2

Calling Card leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — more than 28 points ahead of the next-best score — and goes off at just 5/2 on the morning line despite carrying real credentials in allowance company. Manuel Franco takes the call for Linda Rice, a barn-and-rider combination that fires regularly at this level. With an average speed figure of 54 and an 18% career win percentage, Calling Card has the tactical profile of a horse that can sit off the pace and pounce late in a one-turn mile at Belmont.

place2TwohonestmischiefML 6/1

Twohonestmischief is interesting at 6/1 — a 67.56 TrackWiz rating makes this horse the second-best in the field by our model, even if the 5% career win rate signals a horse who has been competitive without closing the deal. Flavien Prat is the booking here, and he has a habit of finding the winner's circle with horses that have been knocking on the door. At those morning-line odds, Twohonestmischief is a genuine value play to hit the board.

show4Tuning InML 7/5

Tuning In will be the public's choice at 7/5 with a gaudy 50% career win percentage, but our model rates this horse third in the field at 59.33 — a signal to respect but not trust blindly at short odds. Edgard J. Zayas rides for H. James Bond, a capable trainer at this distance, so the connections are sound. Using Tuning In as a show placeholder rather than leaning on it to win protects your ticket while acknowledging the public's case.

Race 8

9:05 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A massive 15-horse maiden optional claiming field on the turf at six furlongs is as wide open as it gets — all runners are seeking their first win, and the pace scenario across this big field will be unpredictable.

win9R Kan't MissML 7/2

R Kan't Miss tops our TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and goes off at 7/2 on the morning line — a reasonable price for the top-rated horse in a chaotic field. Micah J. Husbands gets the mount for Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., a trainer who consistently puts his horses in position to fire on debut or off a short form line on the turf. The 55 average speed figure is competitive in this company, and in a large field where pace can collapse, a well-rated horse with a capable trainer angle is exactly what you want anchoring your tickets.

place10Southern KissML 9/2

Southern Kiss comes in second on our model at 54.17 and posts an average speed figure of 56 — the highest in the field — which is a meaningful edge in a short turf sprint where early position matters. Edgard J. Zayas rides for Mark E. Casse, a trainer with a strong turf record at this circuit. At 9/2 on the morning line, Southern Kiss is a natural exacta partner with R Kan't Miss and brings legitimate speed that could carry her all the way to the wire.

show1Avalon BeachML 5/1

Avalon Beach sits third in our ratings at 53.33 with an average speed figure of 54 and gets Ricardo Santana, Jr. — one of the most in-demand jockeys at the meet — which is a notable booking in a maiden field this size. Michael J. Maker is an experienced trainer who excels at spotting horses on the turf, and having Santana aboard in a 15-horse field suggests the connections believe this horse belongs near the top of the pack. At 5/1, Avalon Beach is a smart inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: today's Belmont card is headlined by Risk Tolerance on the turf and a pair of intriguing overlays in the opening dirt races. The fast, warm conditions should keep speed figures honest and give us clean reads on pace. Free previews for Races 1–3 are live now, and subscribers have access to the complete 8-race breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all. Good luck out there.

← All Belmont Park picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free