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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — October 14, 2026

October 14, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Happy Wednesday at Belmont Park, where eight races are on tap and the thermometer is pushing 90°F under partly cloudy skies. That kind of late-October heat is unusual, and it matters — especially for the turf runners who'll need to handle a course that could be playing firmer than usual on the surface, while the dirt track could dry out and favor early speed as the card wears on.

Today's card mixes maiden claimers, allowance company, and a starter allowance that's shaping up as one of the most competitive turf routes of the afternoon. Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and we've got five premium breakdowns waiting for subscribers who want the complete edge.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt mile where one horse blows the field away on TrackWiz ratings — but the morning line tells a different story, making pace and positional setup critical.

win4After the BeepML 9/2

After the Beep is the clear standout here on TrackWiz ratings, posting an 84.9 — a full 26 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. Trainer Bobbi Anne Hawthorne sends her out with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons, a pairing worth noting in a race with several first-time or maiden horses. Her average speed figure of 54 is a tick above most of the competition, and at 9/2 on the morning line, she offers solid value relative to her rating edge. In a maiden claimer at a mile, class and consistency of figures tend to separate horses quickly — and this filly brings both.

place1Our WarriorML 2/1

Our Warrior is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for a reason — trainer Linda Rice has a knack for placing horses and Jose Lezcano is a savvy hand around Belmont's big oval. His TrackWiz rating of 58.33 is the second-best in the field, and in a race where the top pick draws significant action, Our Warrior's positional advantages could make him a very safe place play.

show5Vintage WizML 6/1

Vintage Wiz at 6/1 catches the eye as an exotics inclusion with a rating of 58.22 — essentially neck-and-neck with Our Warrior on our numbers. Javier Castellano rarely accepts mounts he doesn't like, and trainer Anthony Margotta has spotted this horse in a spot where the rating suggests a competitive effort. At 6/1 on the morning line, the show price could be generous.

Race 2

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Favorable Scenario looks like a boat-ride favorite on the turf mile, but the real handicapping question is who fills out the exacta and trifecta behind the heavy chalk.

win2Favorable ScenarioML 3/5

Favorable Scenario is simply in a different class here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest mark on today's entire card through the first few races. Trainer Chad C. Brown is one of the elite turf conditioners in the country, and pairing him with Manuel Franco at a one-mile turf trip at Belmont is about as formidable a combo as you'll see at this level. A 12% career win rate doesn't scream flashy, but at 3/5 on the morning line, the market has priced him correctly — the question isn't if he wins, it's by how much. Play him on top of every exotic ticket.

place7Global AssetML 6/1

Global Asset is our value play in the place slot, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine upside here. A 33% career win rate is the highest in the field and suggests a horse that converts when it's in the right spot — trainer Philip Antonacci has Jorge Ruiz up, and the 60.54 TrackWiz rating makes Global Asset a credible threat to the minor shares if Favorable Scenario runs away.

show3Griffin's WharfML 4/1

Griffin's Wharf lands at 4/1 on the morning line with Ricardo Santana, Jr. aboard for trainer Thomas Morley, and a TrackWiz rating of 54.49 puts him solidly in the mix for the show spot. He's in the middle of the pack on career win percentage at 7%, but Santana's tactical ability on the turf gives him a live chance to secure a piece.

Race 3

6:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two legitimate horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential pace duel that could leave the door open for a closer to sneak into the money.

win1BellacoseML 3/1

Bellacose is our best bet of the race and it isn't particularly close — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating leads the field by over eight points, and a 37% career win rate is elite for the claiming ranks. Manuel Franco is the pick-up ride for trainer Joe Sharp, and that jockey-trainer combination carries real weight in a sprint. At 3/1 on the morning line, Bellacose represents genuine value for a horse with this kind of rating advantage and proven record.

place5Miss LaoML 5/2

Miss Lao at 5/2 is the morning line's second choice, and her 79.0 TrackWiz rating justifies it. Trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci sends her out with Antonio Fresu, and a 13% career win rate in the claiming ranks at this distance profile suggests consistency. She profiles as the most likely horse to run Bellacose down if anything goes wrong, making her a natural place play.

show7Sabby SunsetML 8/1

Sabby Sunset is the value show play at 8/1 morning line, with a TrackWiz rating of 66.34 that outpaces several horses the morning line has priced more favorably. Heman Harkie picks up the mount for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci, and an average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this field. At those odds, threading her into your trifectas as the show horse is a no-brainer.

The first three races on the card are free for everyone, and they offer a nice cross-section of what Belmont is serving up today. On the dirt, After the Beep (Race 1, 9/2 ML) stands out in a maiden claiming mile — that morning line suggests the market isn't fully respecting our top rating of 84.9, which could mean real value if the tote board stays honest. In Race 2, Favorable Scenario is the heavy favorite at 3/5 on the turf mile — at that price you're not looking for value, but a TrackWiz rating of 90 says the confidence is there if you need a banker in a multi-race wager. Then in Race 3, Bellacose brings a 3/1 morning line into a 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint — on a day where the dry heat could be hardening the strip and rewarding front-runners, a horse with sharp early speed deserves extra attention.

The throughline in today's free races: dirt speed looks like it could be at a premium given the warm, dry conditions, and we like horses who can control their own destiny early. Keep that bias in mind as you build your tickets.

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Race 4

6:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint on the turf with no obvious standout — ratings are bunched tightly and trainer firepower may matter more than raw numbers here.

win8FramerML 3/1

Framer comes out of the Todd Pletcher barn at 3/1 on the morning line, and any time Pletcher sends a maiden to the gate at Belmont with Kendrick Carmouche up, you pay attention. His TrackWiz rating of 56.67 leads this field, which is tightly clustered — in a race this close on paper, trainer and jockey edge becomes a real differentiator. He doesn't have published speed figures in our system, which suggests a debut or limited public lines, making him intriguing as a horse with unseen upside.

place2Sol MayorML 7/2

Sol Mayor grades out at 55.83 on TrackWiz ratings with Javier Castellano in the irons for trainer Jorge Delgado — and Castellano's feel for turf sprints at Belmont is among the best in the business. At 7/2 morning line with an average speed figure of 53, he profiles as a reliable place horse who should be finishing up through the lane.

show5Brothers WalshML 4/1

Brothers Walsh at 4/1 is the other Thomas Morley entry in this race, with Ricardo Santana, Jr. up — Morley already saddles Griffin's Wharf in Race 2, showing he's live at the meet. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating matches up well enough in this compressed field, and without published speed figures, there's some mystery to his ceiling that makes the show price attractive in exotics.

Race 5

7:23 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Sammy C Note looks like the class of a deep starter allowance field on the turf, but at 7/5 on the morning line, the exotics money is really about finding the horses who can push him in a competitive 1 1/16-mile test.

win3Sammy C NoteML 7/5

Sammy C Note carries a massive 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in this race by over 14 points — and at 7/5, the morning line clearly agrees. Antonio Fresu gets the call for trainer Michael Miceli, and a 56 average speed figure is the best in the field by a clear margin. In a starter allowance at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, horses who can sustain speed through the far turn tend to dominate, and Sammy C Note's figures suggest he's that kind of horse.

place6NaguileML 4/1

Naguile at 4/1 with Manuel Franco aboard is the natural backup — a 75.22 TrackWiz rating puts him second in the field, and trainer Michael Maker has a well-earned reputation for placing horses in spots they can run. A 16% career win rate shows consistency, and at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, Franco will have him in the right place at the right time.

show7Salt SpartanML 3/1

Salt Spartan at 3/1 morning line is a solid show play with a 68.54 TrackWiz rating and Dylan Davis up for trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. His average speed figure of 55 matches most of the serious contenders in this race, and a 7% career win rate at this level suggests he's competitive without necessarily closing the deal — which makes him a fitting show horse in exotics.

Race 6

7:57 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Disco Time draws top billing on the morning line but TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story — this six-and-a-half-furlong dirt allowance optional claimer is shaping up as a potential morning-line upset.

win3Be YouML 2/1

Be You is our top selection at 2/1, carrying an 84.04 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the chalk, Disco Time, who posts only a 45.0 despite going off as the morning-line even-money favorite. Trainer Todd Pletcher sends her out with Kendrick Carmouche, and a 26% career win rate reflects a horse that competes consistently at the allowance level. In a short sprint at 6.5 furlongs, Pletcher horses at Belmont are notoriously sharp, and the rating edge here is significant enough to bet with confidence.

place4My WorldML 10/1

My World is the genuine value play in this race — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, yet she's listed at 10/1 on the morning line. A 75% career win rate is an eye-popping number and one of the highest you'll see on any race card, suggesting this horse wins far more often than she loses when pointed correctly. Brad H. Cox trains her, so the same barn has both the chalk and this under-the-radar threat — worth including in exactas at big prices.

show2Acoustic AveML 8/1

Acoustic Ave lands at 8/1 with a 73.42 TrackWiz rating that makes her one of the better-priced horses on the card. Jose Lezcano for trainer Linda Rice is a reliable combination, and a 24% career win rate shows she's competitive at this level. At those odds, she's a must-use in the trifecta as a live show horse.

Race 7

8:31 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A Little At First is the clear class horse in a ten-horse turf allowance optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles, but a wide draw and a field with several sneaky live types could complicate things late in the trip.

win10A Little At FirstML 2/1

A Little At First draws program number 10 but leads this field comfortably with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — over 16 points ahead of the second-best horse. Trainer Horacio De Paz puts Javier Castellano in the irons, which is exactly the kind of rider you want in a graded-style turf route where pace management is everything. A 25% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 confirm this horse is a legitimate contender who should be on everyone's ticket.

place7InspeightofcharlieML 6/1

Inspeightofcharlie at 6/1 is our preferred place backup and a genuine value angle — a 72.66 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and trainer Barclay Tagg is one of the most respected long-route turf conditioners in the game. Katie Davis gets the mount, and a 16% career win rate at this class level shows consistency. At 6/1, this horse could easily outrun the morning line.

show2Jack and JimML 3/1

Jack and Jim at 3/1 is the morning line's second choice and posts a 56.92 TrackWiz rating with Manuel Franco up for H. Graham Motion — one of the premier turf trainers in the country. His 50% career win rate is the highest in this field, and while the speed figures are modest at 52 average, Motion's horses often run better on the turf than the numbers suggest. A safe exotics inclusion at a reasonable price.

Race 8

9:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claimer on the turf with two horses dominating the TrackWiz ratings — find those two and then look for a live price underneath to cash trifectas.

win4Devilish GrinML 5/2

Devilish Grin is our top pick at 5/2 and earns it with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in this large field by a clear margin. Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides for trainer Amelia Green, and an 8% career win rate for a maiden claimer actually reflects some seasoning and competitive experience at the turf route. Her average speed figure of 54 is squarely in range, and at 5/2, the price is fair for a horse with this much of a rating edge.

place7Raging BloomML 3/1

Raging Bloom at 3/1 is the natural complement — an 80.91 TrackWiz rating makes her the second-best horse in this field by a comfortable margin, and trainer Kenneth McPeek puts Manuel Franco on her back. McPeek and Franco in a maiden turf route at Belmont is a combination that commands respect. She should be competing for the win but at 3/1, the place bet is a high-percentage play.

show8LoveontheleftbankML 8/1

Loveontheleftbank at 8/1 is our value inclusion for the show and trifecta slots — a 72.14 TrackWiz rating is third in this field, and Dylan Davis for trainer James Ryerson is a workmanlike pairing that tends to get the job done without fanfare. Her average speed of 54 is competitive, and in a field this large, a horse with this rating sitting at 8/1 is exactly the type of overlay you should be threading into your tickets.

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Eight races, a scorching October afternoon, and some genuine betting opportunities across both surfaces — that's the Belmont card on October 14. After the Beep, Favorable Scenario, and Bellacose are your free best bets to get started. Want the full picture? Subscribers get pace projections, exotic ticket builds, and complete analysis on every race. Don't handicap blind — let TrackWiz do the heavy lifting.

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