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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — September 26, 2026

September 26, 202611 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Belmont Park is open for business on a warm late-September Saturday — 88 degrees, partly cloudy, and the kind of weather that keeps the turf firm and the dirt fast. Eleven races are on the board, and this card has real range: maiden sprints to set the table, then a run of graded-quality stakes races to close things out in style.

Four stakes races dot this card, including a 7-furlong dirt affair in Race 9 and a mile-and-a-quarter turf marathon in Race 11 that figures to draw some of the sharpest money of the afternoon. With both dirt and turf surfaces in play across the full card, pace scenarios and surface preferences are going to be critical — and that's exactly where TrackWiz analysis earns its keep.

Three races are on the house today. Whether you're here for a casual weekend play or you're grinding the exotics all afternoon, we've got you covered from first post to last.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where first-out runners dominate the field and the morning line separates three contenders within a razor-thin rating band at the top.

win2Donegal LusterML 5/2

Donegal Luster draws our top rating at 57.5 and lands in the most powerful barn in the game — Todd Pletcher has made a career of winning maiden specials at Belmont. No prior speed figure on record suggests this is a debut runner, which for Pletcher often means a horse that's been doing serious work behind the scenes. The 5/2 morning line reflects public respect, and with John Velazquez in the irons, the connections are clearly pointing here to win.

place6JovenML 3/1

Joven is another first-out runner with no published speed figure, but Danny Gargan has him at 3/1 on the morning line, which suggests confidence. The TrackWiz rating of 56.67 puts him right behind Donegal Luster, and Flavien Prat is a rider who rarely wastes his time on longshots — his presence here is a meaningful signal in a field where information is scarce.

show3Horizontal RainML 7/2

Horizontal Rain is one of two runners in this field actually showing a prior speed figure of record, though it's limited. Brendan Walsh has quietly become one of the more reliable maiden trainers on the East Coast, and a 7/2 morning line suggests the market respects this horse's chances. In a race this uncertain, a closer like Horizontal Rain with some form lines to point to is a reasonable exotic anchor.

Race 2

4:38 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint featuring a clear class standout by TrackWiz ratings, but a suspicious 100% career win percentage on Golden Tornado demands attention before dismissing the morning-line favorite.

win1CriteriaML 9/2

Criteria tops this field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating — a meaningful gap over the rest of the field — and Chad Brown is the trainer you want when targeting allowance victories at Belmont. At 9/2 on the morning line, Criteria offers genuine value relative to that rating edge. Flavien Prat picks up the mount, and when Prat and Brown connect at this level, the win rate speaks for itself.

place3Shoot the NickelML 5/1

Shoot the Nickel posts a 79.17 rating — second-best in the field — and Linda Rice has a 18% career win rate with this horse in a barn that knows Belmont well. Jose Ortiz is a smart booking on a horse that figures to be competitive in the stretch. At 5/1 on the morning line, the place price should offer solid value even if Criteria fires at the top.

show4Village PersonML 8/1

Village Person is worth a look in exotics at 8/1 morning line, and that 37% career win percentage is the best legitimate win rate in the field among horses with a real sample size. Kendrick Carmouche knows how to navigate a sprint field, and a rating of 79.08 puts Village Person firmly in the mix if the top two encounter any trouble.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse maiden claiming field on the turf where a clear rating standout emerges despite a field full of first-timers and lightly raced types — this one has a shape.

win14Stella FortunaML 6/1

Stella Fortuna owns the top TrackWiz rating in this race at 72.35 — nearly eight points clear of the next contender — and Dylan Davis has been riding with confidence at the Belmont meet. An average speed figure of 55 gives her some form to point to, and Michael Miceli knows how to place a turf maiden to win. The 6/1 morning line is legitimate value given that rating edge in a wide-open field.

place4Amazing GracerML 8/5

Amazing Gracer is the 8/5 morning-line favorite and carries a 64.85 TrackWiz rating, suggesting the public may have this one right even if our top pick holds a rating edge. Jorge Abreu is a sharp trainer for turf routes, and Ruben Silvera is a capable rider who won't panic in a large field. If Stella Fortuna faces any trip trouble, Amazing Gracer is positioned to capitalize.

show8Whatta WeekendML 5/1

Whatta Weekend at 5/1 rounds out our show spot with a 63.44 rating — third in this field — and Ricardo Santana Jr. is the kind of rider who can squeeze out a check in a crowded turf field. An average speed of 53 in a maiden claimer at 1 1/16 miles on turf is workable, and the David Duggan barn has quietly put together some turf form lines worth watching.

Our three free plays span both surfaces and multiple conditions, giving you a solid cross-section of what Belmont has to offer today. Donegal Luster opens the card in a 6-furlong maiden special weight on dirt — a sprint distance where early pace control can be decisive, especially on a day when the track figures to favor horses that can find a rhythm up front. In Race 2, Criteria steps into an allowance sprint at 6½ furlongs and carries one of the higher TrackWiz ratings among the free picks (84.9), making that race a strong anchor for early multi-race sequences.

Race 3 shifts to the turf for a maiden claiming route at 1 1/16 miles, where Stella Fortuna comes in at a juicy 6/1 morning line — our kind of price for a horse our model likes on a firm turf surface. If the grass is playing true to form in the early going, that longshot angle could pay off nicely before the stakes races take center stage.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:50 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tightly contested stakes sprint where the morning-line favorite gets upended by our TrackWiz ratings — the top three rated horses are separated by less than three points, making this a genuine three-way battle.

win1Munnings ExpressML 8/1

Munnings Express carries our highest rating at 79.79 and posts a 50% career win percentage — the kind of number that earns trust at this level. Linda Rice has this horse ready to run sharp on dirt, and Manuel Franco is an inspired pick at 6 1/2 furlongs where pace can get heated. At 8/1 morning line against a short-priced favorite, Munnings Express is the value play of the race.

place6Beauty ReignsML 3/1

Beauty Reigns is virtually tied for our top rating at 79.75 and draws the William Mott barn, which is as reliable as it gets in stakes company at Belmont. Junior Alvarado rides for a barn that presses hard when they think a horse can win, and a 28% career win rate says this is a horse that knows how to finish. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse this dangerous.

show5R DisasterML 7/5

R Disaster is the 7/5 public choice and carries a 77.19 TrackWiz rating along with a 52% career win percentage — the best win rate in the field. Saffie Joseph Jr. has been lethal in dirt sprints, and Jose Ortiz rarely accepts a mount at this level without believing in the horse. Even if we're fading the favorite on top, R Disaster belongs in exotics and is the logical show safety net.

Race 5

6:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

First-out and lightly raced types fill this turf maiden sprint, creating a classic condition where workout reports and trainer patterns matter more than published figures — three horses separate from the pack on our ratings.

win5All Star LeighML 7/2

All Star Leigh leads our ratings at 55.83 and flashes the top average speed figure in the field at 57 — a meaningful edge in a race full of unknowns. Anthony Dutrow conditions this horse, and Jose Ortiz in the irons is the kind of booking that signals a trainer expects to be competitive. At 7/2 on the morning line, All Star Leigh profiles as both the logical top choice and a fair price.

place6ForecheckML 9/2

Forecheck at 9/2 holds a 54.17 TrackWiz rating and posted an average speed of 56, second only to our win pick. Linda Rice trains for this turf sprint and Manuel Franco aboard is a crisp combination — Franco is particularly sharp on turf at Belmont. If All Star Leigh gets away well, Forecheck has the profile to chase her down late or hold second.

show8SkidmoreML 6/1

Skidmore sits at 6/1 with a 51.67 rating and a reported average speed of 55 — enough to be involved in the stretch in a field where most horses are essentially unknown quantities. John Velazquez rarely takes a meaningless mount, and the Amelia Green barn appears to be growing into a factor at this meet. As a show hedge in exotics, Skidmore's price makes the risk worth taking.

Race 6

6:59 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A 12-horse turf maiden route where Chad Brown sends out two runners and the market rallies around his primary choice — navigating between the Brown horses and finding a value underneath is the key puzzle here.

win6Doves and HawksML 3/1

Doves and Hawks draws our top rating at 56.67 and is Chad Brown's 3/1 morning-line choice in this field — when Brown points a turf maiden at 3/1 at Belmont, the track record makes that impossible to ignore. Flavien Prat rides, cementing this as the stable's primary entry. An average speed of 53 is modest, but in a maiden turf route, trip and position off the break often matter more than raw figures.

place9AttachmentML 9/2

Attachment carries a 54.17 rating and the best average speed in the field at 57 — that's a legitimate edge in a 12-horse turf marathon where stamina and late pace matter. George Weaver's horse gets John Velazquez at 9/2, and Weaver has a strong record at routing distances on turf at Belmont. If the pace heats up early, Attachment's turn of foot could be decisive.

show10Tasha's PrideML 5/1

Tasha's Pride at 5/1 carries a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and no published speed figure — a first-out type that the market nonetheless respects at a fair price. Kendrick Carmouche is a savvy turf rider who knows how to navigate traffic in a double-digit field, and Cherie DeVaux has been placing horses thoughtfully at this meet. In exotics, the 5/1 morning line offers enough overlay potential to merit inclusion.

Race 7

7:34 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A deep 12-horse allowance optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles on dirt where the ratings compress sharply in the 65-75 range — pace scenario and late kick will determine who earns a check.

win7RaghbaML 8/1

Raghba tops our ratings at 74.99 in what is the deepest field on the card, and the Todd Pletcher barn rarely takes up space in allowance optional claimers without a plan. Flavien Prat in the irons adds further credibility — at 8/1 on the morning line, Raghba represents solid overlay value relative to that rating advantage. The 7% career win rate raises questions about consistency, but at this price, the upside outweighs the concern.

place10SailawayML 6/1

Sailaway has a 70.36 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — a horse with a proven winning habit at this level. Ruben Silvera gets the mount for the Gustavo Rodriguez barn, and an average speed of 52 suggests this horse won't be burning up the track early, setting up a classic pace-to-distance profile. In a field this competitive, a fresh closer at 6/1 is an appealing underneath play.

show8Higher ForceML 8/1

Higher Force at 8/1 morning line posts a 70.19 rating and a 21% career win rate — the third-rated horse in a competitive field. Christopher Elliott keeps the mount for Joe Sharp, who has a solid reputation with horses at this class level. The average speed of 53 is workable at 1 1/16 miles, and at 8/1, this is exactly the type of horse to include in trifecta construction.

Race 8

8:09 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Turf

A quality allowance sprint on the turf with two horses pulling clearly ahead on TrackWiz ratings — Joker On Fire and Light Fantastic set up as the top tier, but the morning line makes the top pick a price play.

win6Joker On FireML 3/1

Joker On Fire is our top-rated horse at 87.08 — nearly four points clear of Light Fantastic — and posts the best average speed figure in the field at 58. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides for Bruce Levine, and this combination on turf at Belmont is worth respecting. At 3/1, the market has this horse pegged correctly, but the rating margin justifies confident support as the win pick.

place3Light FantasticML 9/2

Light Fantastic holds an 83.72 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win percentage — the best win rate in the field among horses with meaningful starts. Brad Cox sends this horse out with John Velazquez, a pairing that has produced stakes winners at Belmont and one that rarely shows up at allowance level without a purpose. The 9/2 morning line may be slightly generous given the profile.

show7True LegendML 6/1

True Legend at 6/1 carries a 77.65 rating and a 20% career win rate, sitting comfortably in third on our numbers while drawing Manuel Franco for the George Weaver barn. An average speed of 55 keeps True Legend in contention in a turf sprint where tactical speed and position are crucial. This horse is a natural fit for show or trifecta inclusion if you're trying to beat the top two.

Race 9

8:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

A 10-horse dirt stakes at 7 furlongs where one horse stands dramatically clear on our ratings — the question is whether the public will hammer the price down enough to squeeze out the value.

win3Senior OfficerML 5/2

Senior Officer is the standout of the day at 87.81 — the highest rating in the race by over 31 points — and pairs that figure with a 57% career win percentage that is genuinely elite at this level. Brad Cox sends this horse out with Flavien Prat at 5/2 on the morning line, and that combination in a dirt stakes at Belmont is about as confident a signal as you'll see on a race card. Our analysis strongly favors this horse to win going away.

place7Crazy MasonML 6/1

Crazy Mason rates second in this field at 56.62 — a steep drop from Senior Officer but still ahead of a competitive group — and Manuel Franco keeps a live mount for the Gregory Sacco barn. A 22% career win rate and an average speed of 56 suggest a horse that can run a consistent race, and at 6/1 morning line, the place price should hold value even if the favorite runs as expected.

show1MoonlightML 6/1

Moonlight at 6/1 carries a 55.97 rating and a 20% career win rate, edging out several others in this field on our numbers. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for the Peter Miller barn, and Miller has a knack for placing horses in spots where they can find a check. At 7 furlongs on dirt, Moonlight's average speed of 56 is competitive, making the horse a reasonable show anchor in exotics.

Race 10

9:19 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

An international turf marathon at 1 1/2 miles featuring European shippers mixing it up with domestic horses — Minaret Station leads our ratings but the international contingent adds genuine mystery to the pace and trip scenario.

win1Minaret StationML 7/2

Minaret Station tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and carries a 37% career win percentage that stands as one of the stronger records in this field. Jose Ortiz gets the mount for the William Walden barn, and at 7/2 morning line, the price respects but doesn't drastically shorten the overlay on a horse whose rating advantage is real. At 1 1/2 miles on turf — a classic stamina test — a horse built to run long with a high win rate is precisely what you want underneath.

place3El CordobesML 5/2

El Cordobes is trained by Charles Appleby, one of the premier European turf conditioners in the world, and Flavien Prat accepts the mount — that's a combination that has won international races at the highest level. The 80.5 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and a 33% career win rate suggests this shipper is no mere tourist. The 5/2 morning line means the market respects the threat; getting El Cordobes underneath is the smart play.

show2Pride of ArrasML 4/1

Pride of Arras arrives from the Ralph Beckett barn in England at 4/1 on the morning line, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 55 and a debut figure of zero for American form — which simply means we're relying on European context. James Doyle rides, a world-class jockey who is comfortable on turf at route distances. As a show hedge in a race where European form is inherently unpredictable, 4/1 on the board makes Pride of Arras an intriguing inclusion in exotics.

Race 11

9:54 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

The finale is a marquee turf stakes at 1 1/4 miles featuring a dominant favorite by our ratings, an intriguing longshot value play at 12/1, and a cast of European shippers who could scramble the entire pace picture.

win4KathynmarissaML 8/5

Kathynmarissa enters as our top-rated horse at 89.12 — the highest number on the entire card today — and backs that up with a 46% career win percentage that is remarkably strong for a turf stakes field. Chad Brown trains and Jose Ortiz rides, which is simply the gold standard pairing at Belmont in turf routes. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price reflects the dominance, but when a horse is this far clear on ratings and win percentage, you back it.

place1FionnML 12/1

Fionn is the surprise in this analysis — a 12/1 morning-line horse with the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 63.54 and an eye-catching 58% career win percentage. Brad Cox conditions this horse for Manuel Franco, and that trainer-jockey combination doesn't show up at 12/1 without something hiding in the form. In a turf stakes where pace can get complicated by European shippers, a horse with a 58% win rate is screaming value underneath.

show11Cathedral (GB)ML 9/2

Cathedral (GB) is Chad Brown's second entry in this race at 9/2 on the morning line, and the Brown barn has a long history of winning turf routes with international horses. Flavien Prat takes the mount — a strong booking — and while the TrackWiz rating of 54.17 places Cathedral third in our hierarchy, the Brown-Prat connection on turf at Belmont is never to be dismissed. A 9/2 show price on a Chad Brown turf horse is workable in any multi-leg exotic.

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A warm Belmont Saturday, four stakes races, and two surfaces — this is exactly the kind of card that rewards preparation. Our top plays to watch: Criteria and Stella Fortuna in the free races, and Kathynmarissa (89.12 TrackWiz rating, 8/5 morning line) looming as the marquee selection in Race 11. Full card breakdowns, pace maps, and exotic strategies are all inside for subscribers — see you at the windows.

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